__________________

Congrats to #6 and especially Mrs. #6, who did all the work on their first little bambino, let’s call her “One Sixth.”

Hopefully, this nice young couple will recognize soon that NYC is a great place for getting one’s windshield involuntarily  squeegeed for a dollar, or for getting your carbon credit fix on by taking the sweaty summer #4 train uptown instead of a cab.

For raising sweet young things, however?  Well…

Anyway, God bless and good luck, she’s beautiful.

_______________________________

I’m a bit ambivalent about the precious this week.  I think we’ll continue to do well here, but I’ll probably start taking some profits this week as well.   No need to get too greedy.

As far as what I’m looking at, I’m surveying that nasty old sugar name, IPSU again.  Why?  For no other reason than that it’s taking the commodity train up again.   If it breaks through this resistance here, it might be well worth taking on a position once again:

 

My best to you all, and God bless the little children.

_________________

Comments »

_______________________

Really, I’m spoiling you.  It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention.  A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!).  Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.

Take PZG as an example.  I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now.  Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily.  See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day?  That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line.  If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all.  You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak.  AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point.   Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.

Enjoy this time, my friends.

________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JgYuQ4hLxo&feature=related 450 300] ________________________
It’s Ash Wednesday today, and I’m not sure that I’ve been sufficiently penitent, so I’ll leave off the gloating about the big win on yesterday’s pick, BAA.  Suffice it to say that choosing from the juniors yesterday was like throwing a phosphorous grenade into a bucket of comatose darter snails… not very sporting.

But effective, for sure.  I’ll just wrap with my view on where BAA looks like it can be bought again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m also stalking AAU, here and some more AUY, but that’ll probably not be ripe til next week sometime.  The latter is my Final Four choice, however, so if you want to buy some on Friday, I’d be obliged to ye.

But it”s not just the metal that’s been golden these days, it’s been ag products as well.  I stumbled across an old Cincicrappie name I used to follow (they are now moving to Charlotte, I hear) — Chiquita Banana (CQB) .  This one’s been working itself back along with a bunch of other beat down ags, and who knows, maybe moving out of Ohio means it has a new lease on life?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whatever the case, I like it at just a touch above that $9.75 support line.   See you there.

My best to you all, my banana burritos.

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8B3Vqupy0U 450 300]

_________________________

I’ve watched with some amusement recently as a few here have tried to use every gauge on the submarine dial in order to judge what direction the market is going.   Don’t get me wrong… there are people out there for whom I have enormous respect, and who have studied the markets to a fair-the-well for years, decades even.   Those same people are tying themselves in knots trying to read the latest tea leaf pattern on the bottom of their bone china cup.  They make it so hard, when it need not be, especially given their backgrounds, their educations… their knowledge of just what makes the market move.

Let’s face it folks, the market moves on liquidity.  That said, there are two things affecting liquidity in our U.S. and global markets.  The first is scarcity.  Yes, scarcity.  When I was a pup, in the 90’s, it was not uncommon to see 50 to 60 Initial public Offerings PER MONTH.  Now we are lucky if we get 60 IPO’s in an entire year.   Sarbanes Oxley and Dodd Frank are doing their work, and the private capital markets are filling in the gaping hole left by the public markets’ regulatory sclerosis.  Deals are getting financed and traded entirely on the private side.  Increasingly there are more and more great companies that you will never see as a Joe Six Pack investor, unless you get real wealthy and start investing in private equity limited partnerships.   That’s too bad, but I guess the “good news” is those slimmer pickings make for a more highly bid public market, just on supply and demand criteria alone.

The second and probably more comprehensive goad to liquidity is the loose monetary policy we’ve been “enjoying” since the dot-com crash and 911, and even more so since the Financial Crises (sic) of 2008.   I don’t need to tell you that the dollar has been used and abused for the last ten years, gaining only a brief respite as a “Safety Dance” during the 2008 Meltdown.   Recently, I’ve been calling the dollar’s dolorous decline with pinpoint accuracy (if I do say so m’self).  Look at this highlight reel:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eschewing cycles, I kept only Ben Bernanke and the political importance of 2012 in mind, and came up with this startling conclusion: this should not be a good year for the dollar.

So what should it be a good year for?  Funny you should ask, as I called for a buy on SLW last Friday at about ten cents below it’s actual low of the day.   I don’t plan to make that mistake again, at least not with MAG Silver (MVG).  A lot of my PM charts are showing nice signs here, and MVG’s budding return to society is shown best in this weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily to see where the best place to buy in the next few days will likely be:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m going to throw the order in at the north end of the range described above and close to that 200-day EMA.  I don’t want to get burned again by a dime like I did last Friday on SLW.  It’s accumulate time again, kids.

Best to you all.

_________________________________

 

 

Comments »

__________________________

Rare earth metals became even rarer today, as three of our major home slices of pizza, AVL, QRM and even benighted REE, the “grandfather of them all,” roared ahead like they were not just rare, but steak tartare- level impossible to find.

I think all of them have room to go, but I like AVL as the immediate purchase, with REE and QRM following perhaps by the end of the week.  Here’s my take on AVL:

As you can see, that first resistance level has been suborned, so even if you purchase tomorrow, that $3.o7 level should stand firm as a base going forward.

My second favorite is REE, which had a monstrous move today that dwarfed all of its rare earth compadres.  Check out this daily:

 

 

Note also, however, that we are coming up against all kinds of resistance here, and the stochastics are egregiously vertical.  That spells “pullback” for me, at least for the near term.  This is one that last week I was posting in The PPT as a buy at $6.05,  so be ready for another blastoff soon after this.

My last look is at QRM, which I’ve mentioned here before and which also had a nice move today.

 

As I mentioned earlier, this one is not as attractive as it butted up against resistance but did not break through.  I think that means we probably consolidate, but that volume spike also generally indicates we are going further north.

Best to you all, and remember to watch this sector along with metals more precious..

 

 

 

Comments »

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monument Circle, Indianapolis, Complete with Super-Classy, Monster Roman Numeral Decor

_______________________________

The precious metal sector has gone HAM, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum here these last few days.  I’m not a big crower, as I take the “That’s Life” Sinatra-version view of this crazy stock picking game.  In fact, if anything I’m ticked that I got caught with only 60% exposure to my favourite stocks in the PM sector, and having ditched my two internally leveraged stocks (AGQ and NUGT) only the day before this anti-grapist surge.  That said, my port is still well above even my Seven Samurai picks (currently at +11.4%) as of the first of the year, so things are good.

I also think I called the dollar top to within pennies (one of my predictions was that the dollar would fail at $81.50).   I think it has a bit to go, even as it may take a rest here to bounce on the support that has now become resistance (#2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we may get a bit of a pause here, but not much.  I will be adding on pullbacks and all the usual names will be good.

Let me take this opportunity, then, to point out my two “A” and “B” best PM stocks for the current moment.  I’ll do “B” first and admit right off that Banro — BAA is in fact, a Congo miner.  I make an exception, at least temporarily, to my rule about not taking too much political risk by noting that it controls over 2500 square kilometers of rich African resource land, and that it was incorporated (and still resides) in Toronto, Canada in 1951.  That’s a lot of embedded expertise and a lot of paid off pols in the Congo.  Consider it barrier to entry.

In any case it’s the chart I like, and when it gets back over $5, it’s going places:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yamana (AUY), my second attractive Toronto-based player, seemingly breaks my rules because of its size (over $12 bn market cap), pointing out that it may be more an acquiror than acquired.  I like it’s benign Latin American exposure, however (Mexico, Brasilia, Colombia, Chile, etc.) , and think that it’s got one of the more promising charts (this one a weekly)  thanks to a long term breakout from a lengthy consolidation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll be trying to take these two in the next couple of days at $4.80 and $16.70 respectively, if I can.   My best to you.

_______________________________________

 

 

Comments »