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Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio

Nice Work, Mr. Anderson!

I interrupt this heavily precious metal-oriented blog in order to pay homage to The #1 Jacksonian Holding since inception (May 1st, our official/unofficial start date).   Mr. Anderson — [[ANDE]] broke the 70% mark today, in a little over a month’s trading.  

That’s kind a special, so I figure I’d give old “Keanu” a shout out.   Do you begrudge?  Better question — do you own it?

Mind you, I think the PM’s will eventually leave Mr. Anderson in the dust, counting spoons that aren’t really even there.   And believe me, the PM”s are not doing too shabbily as it is, with [[SLW]] up 41.84%,  [[TC]] up 41.49% and  [[PAAS]]  up 39.88%.   All of the golds are in the 30’s as well, with my three laggards being (in order) [[NRP]] +0.66%.,  [[TSO]] + 0.31% and negative nelly-monster  [[MON]] at (-2.76%).   The overall port, thanks to today’s recovery, is just under 26% for the entire period.  

What’s that you say?  Molybdenum’s not a precious metal?  Well it’s PRECIOUS TO ME!

For today I added a little [[EGO]] at $9.57 — my one holding that did not close in the black today (by two cents).   Ironic, no?   Still I wanted to fill that position and I think it’s coiling for a move here.   Everyone else recovered to some extent, but I would not bet my bottom dollar that we are out of the turbulence yet.   No, I shant sound the “all clear” until we’re  above the $400 mark on the $HUI, as mentioned in last night’s post.   We got halfway back, closing a bit above $387  this afternoon.  

As I said, use this time to accumulate positions in the Jacksonians, and in some [[GG]], [[AUY]], [[ANV]], and [[EXK]] — among the other PM’s of your choice.  Soon these prices will be but a dream to you, I fear. 

If you want some non-Jacksonians, I’ve been playing some biotech lotto with [[SVA]], [[HEB]], [[SFE]] and [[CTIC]].   I’m not even going to disclaim those, as if you dare playing with them you are too “certifiable” to hire a creditable lawyer in the first place.  Just. Don’t.

Two quick charts showing Mr. Anderson’s  progress.  The first shown when I laid out the first blog post on the idea, the second captured today:

ande

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andeii

And today’s portfolio performance.  Be well all.

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Name 4-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.22 6.45%   Up over 70% since 5/1
EGO       9.52 -0.21%   Got  more today @ $9.57 – can ya tell?
GDX     43.51 3.20%   $HUI back above $385 again ($387)
GLD     96.23 1.93%   POG up 2.2% today.  ($983.50)
IAG     10.55 1.54%   Gaps filled, but anemic.
MON     82.90 1.72%   Back to Tuesday’s close
NRP     24.24 3.86%   Healthy recovery for this sluggard
PAAS     23.29 4.30%   Up 5.6% since yesterday’s purchase ($22.05)
RGLD     46.19 1.34%   Low volume retrace
SLV     15.63 3.24%   POS back close to $16 again.
SLW     10.95 3.69%   Closed right on the 50% fib retrace
SSRI     23.97 4.04%   Over the cup again-exactly
TBT     56.00 3.72%   Back over 61.8% fib – $60 next target
TC     10.06 7.71%   Blew right back up again.
TSO     16.06 5.87%   Back in the long term green by 31 basis pts.
AVG   3.49%    

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What’s Up MON? It’s Not the Weeds, it’s the Seeds!

Forgive the silly allusion, but I needed a snappy entry to counter a depressing day for one of our Jacksonian Stalwarts: [[MON]].  I figured Mr. Smiling Rastaman can offer some surcease to our collective agita.    MON got some bad news today, courtesy of it’s own management.  I’ll boil it down to this piece from the release:

For the quarter ending May 31, the St. Louis-based agricultural products provider (MON 79.88, -5.37, -6.30%) said it now expects to earn $1.15 a share, down sharply from its prior target range of $1.60 to $1.62 a share.   The reduction caught investors off guard.  Analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for earnings of $1.61 a share, on average.

Yeah, that’s a pretty big reduction in earnings, but it turns out it’s all about some extra competition in it’s herbacide business, which is frankly, the ass-end of it’s value proposition, providing less than a third of overall gross margin.  

Seeds and traits are where it’s at, ladies and germs — that’s what garners the high end of MON’s 60+% gross margins and almost 30% net margins.   You think you can make that kinda coin selling weedkiller?

No sir, it’s the intellectual property that make this market leader a Jacksonian Core Holding, and why I will continue to trade around my position rather than part with it.   Here’s the IP driver update from that same press release:

The company’s seed and traits business, however, continues to show strength. The company now forecasts the segment to deliver gross profit toward the upper end of it’s the range of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion it forecast for the year.

“The projected increase of more than 15% year over year reflects the combination of greater value, growth in the company’s branded seed businesses and expanded use of Monsanto’s trait technologies,” the company said in a release.

So granted, I was a little late in not selling some calls when MON banged against it’s 61.8% fib line (daily) last week (although I did mention it to you, readers).   Thanks goodness, I did part with the “booster” calls I had bot in the high seventies around their second quarter earnings announcement.   Here’s the good news, I will be buying “booster calls” again here, soon, and most likely tomorrow.  I will alert you, but here’s what I’m seeing:

mondaily1

You can see where my target is on the daily, which is showing pretty seriously oversold conditions (thought i can always get more oversold, can’t it?) — right at the retest of that old downtrend line.    Now, the weekly is relatively coincidental, with the long term 61.8% fibonacci line looking like nice resistance at a little over $78.35 or so.  

monweek1

I will be watching these levels tomorrow, and likely buying July $75 calls to take advantage of a bounce to at least $84-$85.

One last update… the precious metals continue to consolidate here, and I think I shall be taking a strong look at adding some junior silver [[EXK]] tomorrow, and perhaps adding [[EGO]] to the Jacksonian Core, as well.    Best to everyone.

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  27-May % Change
ANDE  $   24.59 -1.44%
GDX       41.22 -1.48%
GLD       93.45 -0.33%
IAG       10.45 -1.04%
MON       79.88 -6.30%
NRP       22.93 0.79%
PAAS       21.89 1.16%
RGLD       44.04 -2.95%
SLV       14.58 1.11%
SLW         9.40 -0.95%
SSRI       20.77 -0.24%
TBT       57.14 3.76%
TC         8.71 -0.23%
TSO       16.91 1.08%
Avg %   -0.51%

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