Category Archives: Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio
My apologies for being so scarce this week. You heard about the Dylan concert and all that, but perhaps you didn’t know I had relations in all week. There were relations activities to attend to, the Dylan concert being one of the more pleasant. Others not as much, but obligatory. So it goes.
In any case, I sit before you with a down port in a flaccid market. And yet, I’m serene. Why is that? Well, to be honest, its because I”ve been riding this same wave since 2001 and frankly, it’s a familiar poise. Since that time, it’s never hurt me to buy on pullbacks, no matter how egregious. With that in mind, I copped another 1k of [[AGQ]] today at $34.95, with the mind that I will get even more if it drops again. I think silver is just peachy.
Call me psycho. I can take it. I own silver at $4.50/oz. and gold at under $300/oz. Does that give me extra confidence?
You bet your ass it does.
More on the Jackson update as the weekend commences.
UPDATE: It’s a horror show, but on the bright side, I built more cash up.
|ANDE||$ 28.89||$ 27.86||-3.57%||$ 8,411.84||-0.18%||Sold 1/2 on break of $28.90 (8,725.60)|
|EGO||8.10||8.27||2.10%||7,748.99||0.10%||Bounced close to 200 day ($7.85)|
|GDX||35.31||35.14||-0.48%||10,635.59||-0.03%||200 day MA is $32 ish|
|GLD||89.51||89.58||0.08%||10,302.47||0.00%||200 day = $88.26|
|IAG||9.22||9.10||-1.30%||11,220.72||-0.09%||Back at the top of the consolidation zone|
|MON||72.56||71.34||-1.68%||4,184.16||-0.04%||Needs to hold above $70- but oversold|
|NRP||20.40||20.63||1.13%||4,281.86||0.03%||Needs to hold above $20|
|PAAS||17.16||17.29||0.76%||10,384.38||0.05%||Some firming past two days.|
|RGLD||38.50||38.98||1.25%||10,770.93||0.08%||Tapped $38 twice this week, closed up.|
|SLV||12.67||12.50||-1.34%||10,154.35||-0.08%||I bot 1k more AGQ at 34.95 on Friday|
|SLW||7.44||7.46||0.27%||7,246.17||0.01%||Approaching oversold on the weekly|
|SSRI||17.46||16.94||-2.98%||9,854.57||-0.18%||Could go to $15, even, watching.|
|TBT||49.45||48.41||-2.10%||9,643.43||-0.12%||Next major support @ $46, if no hold here|
|TC||10.01||9.79||-2.20%||4,592.58||-0.06%||Could target 50 day ($9.11)|
|TCK||15.84||15.46||-2.40%||10,279.25||-0.15%||200 day @ 14.78|
|TZA||26.67||26.28||-1.46%||5,294.13||-0.05%||May add to this next week, with cash|
|Cash (000)||$ 26.42||$ 26.42||0.01%||26,420.79||0.00%||Increased $8,725.60 on half sale of ANDE|
|AVG (daily)||-0.82%||$ 161,426.21||-0.70%|
Today I spent much of my “holiday” (official, not actual) working on my bocce court in the blazing Southern sun. Let me say that it’s days like this that give one an appreciation for manual labour (sic), though no avocation for it, let me assure you.
Know first that this bocce court is actually a 2+ year old “birthday present” from my loving wife, who — in a moment of true inspiration — thought that a bocce court would recall for me both fond memories of New York and my then-recently departed father– who though an Irishman through and through, loved the game like no other. I was less enthusiastic, having a natural aversion to yard work of any kind, and this was looking more like “yard project” — a far more grim prospect.
The good woman persisted however. We have a relatively large backyard, and she figured it would fit nicely at the far end, back by the willow trees. As you might expect, this all ended up in the nightmarish category of ”never ending project,” where I’ve played the roles of designer, architect, general contractor, and — most recently — landscape engineer.
Mr first problem was that there was a dearth of Italian carpenters in my locale. Well, “dearth” is a bit of a euphemism… actually, there were none. There’s a restaurant downtown that has a bocce court, but I think they imported the guys who built it – a middle of the night operation. What’s more, the materials called for in the on-line plans we’d procured called for oyster shells and other exotic ingredients not readily available at the local Home Depot. My loving bride would not be thwarted however, and she found a willing contractor who claimed he’d have no problem following our guidelines.
Never believe a contractor who says that kind of thing, okay? They always have a problem, somewhere. This one had all kinds of trouble grading my yard to a flat enough plane to lay out the 60′ court. Three times he had to come in with the backhoe. My two year old (at the time) loved it, at least. After that, everything was “special supervision” on a Weekend Warrior basis– for the love of all green currency and compound interest.
So we finally got the court laid out and the sand, gravel and finally red brick dust (my secret ingredient to replace the “oyster shells” the online plan called for. Note: I’ve never played bocce on oyster shells, that must be some kind of freaking West Florida bocce or something) placed within the 60 ‘x 10′ two by six pegged planks. I was the one who personally laid down the brick dust, after it was deposited by the dumptruck, btw. I would trust no one else with it. The old highball throwing Eyetals from Carroll Gardens would’ve been proud of my zen-like focus.
It was a beautiful thing up until the first major rains. This is when I noted that “the ease of drainage” promised in my plans was a pile of horse. The only thing that drained easily was my brickdust, down the side of the hill, out of a gaping hole carved by the rain on the lower slope of our planed lower yard.
So that’s been my Spring project this year - re-graveling and then shoring up my bocce court with various landscaping fascia, including, most recently, massive bricks of some unknown ground composite material. I finished the last of it today, much to my lumbars’ chagrin. My neighbors only chuckle knowingly at my Quixotic efforts and then go back to their more red-neckish pursuits of “corn-hole” (I do not jest) and deep fried turkey leg gnawing.
Tomorrow, however, we will have our annual Jakegint’s Dad Fourth of July Tournament, along with Son #2′s 12th birthday. God and my lower back willing, I will dazzle the locales with my ball curling prowess and it will be all worth it.
God bless America and the Eyetalians who braved the cold Atlantic and Ellis Island to bring us the perfect summer ale drinking sport. Salud, and a Happy Fourth to you all.
Here are Wednesday and Thursday’s Jackson Port looks. Nothing especially egrgegious save MONster, which I may have to cut completely loose upon a break of $70. As you recall, I’ve a half position right now, and I think it’s so oversold right now, that no bounce here means extreme trouble, and therefore a recommended disposal. Gold looks like it’s holding up here, which, as I’ve mentioned, I believe means good things for silver as well. The non precious metals seem strongest of all. See my notes for further comment.
|ANDE||$ 29.94||$ 31.34||4.68%||$ 30.89||-1.44%||Still riding the 8-day EMA like a champ|
|EGO||8.95||9.17||2.46%||9.25||0.87%||Up, but on low volume.|
|GDX||37.82||39.41||4.22%||38.31||-2.79%||Low volume, just below the 50 day EMA|
|GLD||91.18||92.39||1.33%||91.25||-1.23%||Ditto, POG just under $930.|
|IAG||10.12||10.65||5.24%||10.34||-2.91%||Bounced off 20 day EMA (10.06)|
|MON||74.34||73.20||-1.53%||71.96||-1.69%||Totally oversold, but sell <70 .|
|NRP||21.01||20.97||-0.19%||20.77||-0.95%||Ridicluously oversold, but sell < 20.50|
|PAAS||18.33||18.86||2.89%||18.22||-3.39%||Back in congestion zone.|
|RGLD||41.69||42.43||1.78%||41.52||-2.14%||200 day at $39.67|
|SLV||13.38||13.55||1.27%||13.16||-2.88%||Bot AGQ @ $39.20 yesterday|
|SLW||8.24||8.55||3.76%||8.40||-1.75%||Closed right on the 200 day EMA|
|SSRI||18.75||19.07||1.71%||18.79||-1.47%||Close below 200 day EMA|
|TBT||50.92||51.06||0.27%||50.73||-0.65%||Still haven’t bot back yet… soon.|
|TC||10.22||10.38||1.57%||10.36||-0.19%||Still strong, above 20 day EMA|
|TCK||15.94||16.78||5.27%||16.09||-4.11%||Closed right on the 20 day EMA|
|TZA||22.75||21.54||-5.32%||23.63||9.70%||Portfolio saver today, still 1/2 position|
|Cash (000)||$ 13.44||$ 13.44||0.01%||$ 13.44||0.01%||Same|
I was beaten like a silver gong today, and Mr. Market is telling me in not so polite terms that I’d better get the hood up on the convertible before he starts raining golf ball sized hail on my head.
I’ve been busy here so I don’t have a ton of time for comment, but suffice it to say, until further notice, we are in bunker mode. That means I will be hedging the JCHP with double and treble ETF’s in order to make up for any downward motion in the silver and gold plays. As well, I may either cut back severely, or totally eliminate certain positions.
Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] is an example. I am keeping it right now, even though it is down more than 10% since inception because it carries a high dividend yield (almost 9% at inception, higher now). However, I may get rid of it if it dumps below $20. I may also take this opportunity to lard on some [[SMN]] or other appropriate short shields. I will definitely add [[TZA]] — the triple short small cap — at the open for instance, since I bot some just before the close today for my own portfolio ($24.92)
I think we’ll probably get a bit of a bounce tomorrow, and I’ll be taking that opportunity to move into cash and some hedges, as I don’t think this is over. If it’s just a short term blip, so be it. We can scale back in when the ground is safer. In the meantime, protecting principal (and gains) will be the paramount idea.
I’ll update the JCHP later tonight.
Update: One thing to keep in mind is that the US Gubb’mint needs to sell over $100 billion in bonds this week. You think there might be a reason to jack the price of Treasuries [[TLT]] for such selling purposes? Remember, Goldman sells these things for them.
Update: Here’s yesterday’s ugly Jacksonians. I just picked up some TZA @ 24.85 (yes, lower than yesterday’s entry) for insurance:
|ANDE||$ 28.61||$ 28.45||-0.56%||Spent most of the session up|
|EGO||8.20||7.65||-6.71%||Broke $8 support, next at $7.19|
|GDX||38.39||35.74||-6.90%||Broke TL barely, needs to get back to 36.75|
|GLD||91.90||90.54||-1.48%||Also broke TL, needs to see over $91.50|
|IAG||9.36||9.04||-3.42%||Also beneath TL, needs $9.35|
|MON||80.73||78.12||-3.23%||Still on trend, needs to stay over $78.|
|NRP||21.99||20.60||-6.32%||Sell below $20.00|
|PAAS||18.93||18.02||-4.81%||Least banged up silver today, still above TL|
|RGLD||43.08||41.12||-4.55%||Still above TL, 38.2% fib @ $39.50|
|SLV||13.99||13.54||-3.22%||Still above TL til $12.87|
|SLW||8.63||7.97||-7.65%||Right on long term TL today, gotta bounce here.|
|SSRI||18.92||17.56||-7.19%||Still on long term TL til 16.50, could get there.|
|TBT||54.34||53.28||-1.95%||Could easily get back to 49.25 before bounce.|
|TC||10.54||9.40||-10.82%||Sell all on a break of $9.25, 1/2 on gap fill 10.38|
|TCK||16.54||14.57||-11.91%||Sell below 14.35, long term TL @ $12.50|
|Cash ( 000′s)||$ 4.61|
UPDATE: The following astounding link should be clicked by all. Keep in mind that The POTUS just asked that the Fed be put in charge of MORE of our financial system, and then watch this.
With the summary dimissal of [[TSO]] this week, I have an opening in the ranks I’d like to fill. In fact, I may open the barracks to two or more if the stars align properly and there are attractive combatants ready to take the pledge to hard money and portfolio longevity that our General Jackson demands.
One course I’m considering is having the Jacksons act as a 20-man platoon, with certain soldiers being held either partially or fully in reserve during times of either overvaluation or imminent reversal, whilst the others take up the battle against the Federal Reserve and it’s 12-battalion band of Redcoat brigands. I believe I will represent this through a “going to cash” metric that I will include in my daily reports.
For example, my sale of TSO resulted in a net cash position of $9,357 (a little more than a $640 loss from the original $10,ooo invested). While TSO will soon come off the roles entirely, I will keep that cash for reinvestment purposes going forward, thereby keeping the Jacksonian Portfolio to the same accounting I’m using in my own portfolio.
This method will also help better track my partial sales, like my “one third” position sale in [[TC]] the other day at $11.21, which would have yielded me an additional $5,250 in cash (keep in mind, the original $10,000 in TC was invested at $7.11 on May 1st. Therefore, even after having sold a third, I have over $11,000 in value remaining ).
So given those two sales, my cash position is up to $14,600, and burning a hole im m’ pocket.
I will work on adding these cash parameters so you can have a better idea of what I’m doing every day in my portfolio, and a better view on how I’m hedging the port against cyclical downturns.
In the meantime, I welcome suggestions with regard to additional Jacksons. I can tell you now that the precious players will have a leg up and [[GG]] and [[AUY]] remain in the top contenders. That said, I will look forward to your calls here. Remember that I like liquidity, and volatility is not a plus in the Jacksonian fold. Long term value trumps all, however, especially in the context of an inflationary or continuing deflationary market.
Best to you all.
Addendum: Forgive the indulgence. I have one last tribute for my girl’s nativity. Appropriately, it’s a song about a heart-stealing Kentucky woman, from the master himself, back before his voice went out altogether:
UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall. It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace. Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07. No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.
Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today. On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on. [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up. Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?
I like [[TIE]] and [[TC]] is just insane. I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact. In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today). I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.
On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts. Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold. Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.
Here’s a great theme for today. Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida. Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):
Update: Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.
Update: Sorry, no calls to sell on TC! Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21. I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.
Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles. Hanging on the 61.8% fib.
Update: Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot. Isn’t that just like a woman?
Here comes that pullback we spoke about. I’m almost positive we’ll see even more next week, for at least a couple of days. Now if you’re a late comer, you’ll have a chance to nibble at some bargains. For myself, I will be eating some egg salad sandwiches, and dabbling in more psycho stocks while the busted part of this economy continues on.
Keep in mind, the Irish banks [[IRE]] and [[AIB]] are blowing the roof off right now. If shelalegh-toting banks in Ireland are hoisting the Guinness this late in the day, I don’t think we’re quite ready for the Domesday (sic) Book to be opened again.
I will have some more charts and the Jacksonian results later tonight. Until then, have a gin & tonic and review some driver safety films or something.