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Sorry I haven’t been around to keep company.  I’m being kept by many companies.   At first glance, if you look at my favorite universe, it seems like it’s hand holding time.  However, I’ve looked over my long term charts tonight and I can’t believe how cheap some of these miners are trading right now.  SLW has held up reasonably well, but AG and EXK are Christmas presents here.  Get them for your kids.  RGLD continues to take hits, but mein gott it’s tasty here.  I like AUY and even BAA, as well.

I held off the whole month of January, and did not spend any “year end funds.”  That changes tomorrow.  I’m getting more of “all of the above,” but will keep some dry powder for further Crazy Eddie liquidation sales.  Everyone is printing folks.  Every one is racing to the bottom.  If you think that will hurt the precious, you need to have a look at how much Blackrock and Fidelity own of RGLD, and how much they’ve accumulated recently.  If you think they are the dumb money, well… God bless.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgRm1ISlw_A 450 300]

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I’ve had some trouble getting a post out about this Newtown, CT horror show.  You might imagine why.  I have a seven year old.  He’s an outlier, and I’ve always worried about him.  Now that seems almost ridiculous, and yet…

There’s no way you can’t fall on your knees.  In grief, in relief.  In relief.  That’s wrong, I know it, but the absolute realization that something like this can happen… that it is even possible…  makes one want to put their kids into a box until they grow up.

The pain is visceral and it’s borne of impotence.  You want to strike out, make things right.  In this way you cannot even blame the illogical left with their knee jerk proscriptions against gun ownership.  It almost makes sense, given the emotional quotient.

But one has to ask what makes any sense?  Arm the teachers? Seems extreme, and perhaps too much to ask.  But what about security personnel?  One, two..? … training will be important.  Reinforced classroom doors?  Is it worthwhile?  I guess I’d have to ask if protecting our kids is worthwhile.  How much should we spend on that?  Can we maybe move the TSA budget to that arena?

I do know there are some 250 million guns extant in the U.S., and even an absolute prohibition will not keep guns out of the hands of criminals, and crazies.  Does it make sense, then, to concentrate on keeping guns out of legal hands, instead of perhaps working to better counsel — and control — the mentally ill and dangerous?

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Shockingly, or not, I am still in love with silver and gold here.  True, AG got it’s ass kicked today, malevolently, because it purchased another mine at an egregious premium.  Their loss is your gain.  Take advantage.  But wait one day before you buy.  In the meantime, SLW and SIL are great.  As is GDXJ and GDX.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1jzs6dk4bs 450 300]

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Breaking away for a second to remind you to pay attention here.  We are headed into Santa Claus territory, and I don’t think it will be coincidental when we see the gold and silver elves coming out for their annual drunken bacchanal.

I am hoping that on Friday I will have moved a large amount of money from “here” unto “there,” and then will have some time to sport about with you, old time style, half-inebriated and full of fun.  Until then, GDX, GDXJ, and yes, even NUGT will be attractive in the Christmas season.  On the silver side, those of you who have cursed and gnashed your teeth about EXK can consider this the time to “make your bones,” or whatever other ethnic cliche you’d like to use.   AG is still my favorite silver dog, and SLW and SIL my core recommendations for the noobs.  That said, PAAS and MVG can be berry berry good to those of a speculative bent.

More speculative than any of those, however, is AAU and TC.  If you have 2% of your portfolio that you reserve for dice throwing at 3 AM in a dirty alley laden with crack whores and vein poppers, then those are your available plays.  Do not cry to me if you are blackjacked, but please remit 15% to the Salvation Army if you do bank coin.

Best to all of you, and hoping to spend many days of merry and bright with you in the latter part of this month…

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Depending on whose figures you credit, increasing marginal taxes on “the rich” — otherwise known as every schmuck “fortunate” enough to make more than $250,000… including you suckers who live in the Northeast U.S.  and metropolitan California, where this amount will get you a second car and maybe a third bedroom — will raise anywhere from $75 to $90 billion dollars next year.

On the other hand, next year’s budget deficit, depending on how you cost Obamacare, could amount to anywhere from $1.3 to $1.6 TRILLION and higher.   Despite their proposed tax increase delivering far less than 10%  of that proposed deficit, the Administration now seems to have little interest in bartering said tax increase for an agreement to cut spending to a degree that might provide actual deficit relief.  Of course many kind words have been uttered about a “future plan” to implement cuts, but Lord knows, we’ve seen such promises go up in smoke many times since the Reagan era, when that bait and switch was first used by the venerable Tip O’Neil.

So the question arises:  Could the Republicans be dumb enough to trample their long held principles about raising taxes in a recessionary economy, and accept a blind tax increase without defined, commensurate, and indeed exponential, cuts in spending in exchange?  Would they sell out their birthright and last bargaining chip merely to escape the glare of Ming the Merciless?

Well, I find it hard to believe, but I’ve seen some crazy stuff in the last month.   So who knows?  Maybe they will make it easy for all of us.

Perhaps in the end, the cynics are correct, and the only way out is to follow the wormhole to it’s very core, and burst out the other side at the dawn, once again.   One thing is for certain, however… “Things fall apart… the center cannot hold.”

Pax.

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PS — you who come here for an occasional discussion of PM stocks….  I really think the sell off in AUY is as much an opportunity as the sell off in RGLD  last week.  One of my favorites.  Also, I continue to like AG here.

Bless us all, every one.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U9CL8OXCQc 450 300]

 

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Soon, soon I will be a plunger yet again. Morsels are looking tasty already, and I don’t think gold and silver have too much farther to go here.  There’s a lot of support for physical silver at this $31.80-ish level and I may choose to nibble there tomorrow if we get one more rip to the downside. Then stuff will be on sale like you read about.  SLW at $37?, AG at below $22? RGLD at more than 15% from recent highs? Are you kidding me? These are the times when men can be gluttonous, in a sippy-cup kind of way (small sips, gradual like).

I will have time to speak about the recent Obaminations when I’ve got ten minutes to assemble my thoughts.  Needless to say, last night was more revelation.  I think I’ve come to the reluctant conclusion that the guy is just not very bright after all.  The consistent throwing of constituency after constituency under the bus…. when will it end?  Last night, he gave up Virginia by blowing up Newport News and its naval stronghold.  Ah well, who needs those bayonets, save our own guts?

 

Maybe he’ll talk about how he hates Buckeye nuts, next? One can only hope… (for change?)

Best to you all.

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After tonight’s “debate,” I offer a brain re-set.  You’re welcome:

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpZhZAr1cQU&feature=related 450 300]

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Look you, I don’t want to hear any shit.  Do you know what it’s like to have every client you’ve worked with over the last 36 months wanting to get out the door by Christmas? No, of course you don’t, because we’ve never had a bizarre set of economic circumstances like this before, where the difference between getting a deal done in this tax year and the next are approaching 30% of the value of a transaction.

Let me explain…  A lot of people don’t understand that, Fiscal Cliff aside, there’s already an additional 4% Obamacare tax  that’s going to be added to capital gains on any deal that has the misfortune of closing in 2013 instead of 2012.  Then there’s the possibility of the Bush-era tax cuts lapsing, and you add another nickel, minimum.  That’s nine percent more than what you’d be paying on this side of 2012, or a 60% increase in your gains tax burden.  And most of my clients are people who have close to zero basis, since they tend to be folks who started their companies, or took them over from pop at some pocket change transfer price.  So if we are talking about a $100 million dollar sale price, that’s $9 million extra you have to pay Uncle Barack next year if things stay where they are right now.

I don’t care how freaking rich you are, a nine million dollar delta is a ball sweat inducing bill that you’d want to avoid.  And that’s been the consensus of everyone I’m talking to right now.

The other problem with rising capital gains rates is they depress valuations by cutting into after tax returns on capital.  That means not only does one’s purchase price get taxed at an increasing rate, but the multiple paid on a business will be lower also.  Can you say “double whammy?”  (That’s why the public markets will get rocked if Obama wins as well. )

As a result, my life has been a nightmare as of late.  If I’m not on the road doing management meetings (with dinners, lunches, breakfasts, etc) , I’m doing back-to-back-to-back conference calls.   I’m just hoping I can get some of these guys through the funnel.  I already know they all can’t fit.  Such is life.

So I’m sick of apologizing, but please do know I’m keeping an eye on the market enough to signal to you when I think it might be time to get in or out.  Despite the fluctuations and the newest Romney Ryan positivity, I don’t think it’s time to get back into the precious in a giant way.  I think there’s gonna be a nice scare here before Turkey Day to shake some folks out, and then it’ll be time to pounce for the Santa Claus Cokefest and a Smile.

I liked TC’s move today, as I have twelve boatloads of that radioactive shit, having ingested a tonne when it dropped to the $2 level (averaging down, don’t cha know?).  I remain solid in my thinking that miner will become trade bait for some large, cash-rich insitution.  Also, RGLD just did a 5 million share offering with Goldman at $91.  I think this will knock the price down over the next couple of days, maybe even below $90.  If so, that is a huge gift, of which you should take full  advantage…

Best to you all.

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