Something about today’s low volume isn’t really convincing me today. Perhaps I’ll be shown the fool, I dunno. I do know the dollar is still shaky here with [[UUP]] having a tough time reclaiming the ever important $24.00 mark, and DXY only about fifty cents north of $80. Until the currency firms, I’m not going to be doing any “panic Jaeger bombs” in Danny’s basement.

I will remain in the defensive today, even as certain Jacksonian’s thrive. Our newest addition Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] benefits today from a weekend announced Chinese Gov’t investment, which shows that the Red Chinese are more Jacksonian than the Red Democrats running our Fed and Fisc right now. What irony, no? Also, [[TBT]] is up today, which gives me pause with regard to the Armegeddon scenarios as well. One would think the [[TLT]] would be up today given the dire portents afoot, no? But it’s not. Also, the hedge [[TZA]] is serving its purpose again today.

As a result of my skepticism, in true Costanza fashion, I am taking advantage of the worse wounded Jackson today — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — which has a intermediate term (10/25/08 lows to 6/4/09 highs) 38.2% fib retrace line at $7.74. Our lows today were $7.72, and we are now back at $7.74 as I type this. I bot another 2k at $7.82 all the same. I also got another 2k of Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] at $2.88 as I continue to believe this name will show M&A related relative strength as it has been.

As ever the caveats are in place, especially with SLW — for which I have an unnatural obsession. Purchase of either of these — especially today — will cause your Lance Armstrong “Live Strong” bullshit rubber bands to tighten in the sun, rendering your hands useless clubs for the duration.

_____________

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Silver’s been acting sickly for enough time to start irritating the most patient among us. I can only repeat that after last month’s huge moves, we were do as big a consolidation. Note — not a full retrace, but some pullback here, while the bull tries to shake the riders.

The good news is, gold’s hanging on here, even despite the attempts to knock it flat. It’s down today to $929 on the spot market, from $939.80 — a little bit more than 1.1% for the day. Silver, on the other hand, continues to take the brunt of it, with a 33 cent loss down to $13.60 — or almost 2.4% down for the day. That discrepency cannot hold, as silver is already undervalued compared to gold.

From a technical viewpoint, both the price of silver (POS) and the ETF [[SLV]] are showing similar signs of running into significant support.  I use the ETF here in this example because it’s a little cleaner:

From the chart, you can see SLV’s long term 38.2% fibonacci retrace line lies at $13.14. Moreover, it’s 200 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closed at $13.19.

I think there’s a good chance we dip to these levels and begin climbing back before the end of the week. The 38.2% fib line is usually very strong (like it’s inverse — the golden ratio of 61.8%), and it should hold for a solid bounce here. When I see this level, I will be taking advantage of the bounce by taking down a position in the double silver ETF [[AGQ]] , and riding it for at least a swing trade. I may also pick up some more [[EXK]] and any other miners I feel look “opportunistic” at the time.

Best to you.

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We all get busy, so I know this problem plagues a lot of us longer term swing traders and investors.    You take on a small position, justify your trade, and then when it starts doing well, maybe you take a look at selling some of it, but then, having done so…  forget about the rest?

Well, that’s what happened to me with [[EXK]] .  Remember how well that one was doing?  And I even came out and pointed out that it was battling with it’s trendline… here’s the original chart, for reference:

Well it approached it and crashed.  I sold about a third at the time, which is my usual response.  Unfortunately, if I was paying closer attention to this weekly chart, I would’ve sold more on the more obvious retrace direction.  Hindsight is 20-20, but I should have anticipated this result:

Major takeaway —  I need to limit my positions, so I can pay better attention to even small positions like this one.   Think about it, not only did I miss a good opportunity to sell more or all at a significant resistance, but I psychologically barred myself from buying more at the lower support.   Via these mistakes, we breed poor performance.   I will try to do better for myself, and for you, faithful reader.

I still like EXK, by the way, as I do a lot of my smaller miners for the long term.  I just recognize that there will be myriad opportunities to make money in short swing trades in names like one, even as this bull advances.

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Lot’s of comments,  and I’ve annotated some charts, but I don’t have time to fill in the commentary yet, so I’ll just throw the charts out for now.   Many of them are self explanatory… “developing…”

Markets via the Transports, daily:

And weekly, with the Fibs:

 

 

Now our $HUI— daily:

And the weekly $HUI:

Last, the Jacksonian Results as of Friday:

Name	18-Jun	19-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$   28.18	$    28.61	1.53%		Still in consolidation here. Break now $28.15
EGO	7.97	8.20	2.89%		Support @ 8, bizarre final 1/2 hour.
GDX	37.20	38.39	3.20%		Nice EOD action.
GLD	91.60	91.90	0.33%		POG flat, like all week.
IAG	9.10	9.36	2.86%		Never got below $9.  Odd last ten minutes
MON	82.30	80.73	-1.91%		A pox on Cramer. Nice final 45 min.
NRP	21.95	21.99	0.18%		Back above trend for now.
PAAS	18.59	18.93	1.83%		Nice volume today.
RGLD	41.98	43.08	2.62%		Still on trend.
SLV	13.97	13.99	0.14%		POSilver @14.23, inside day
SLW	8.30	8.63	3.98%		Triangle forming, up off the floor?
SSRI	18.13	18.92	4.36%		Nice move, but EOD red candles again.
TBT	55.76	54.34	-2.55%		Not yet filled gap @ 54.20 yet.
TC	10.50	10.54	0.38%		Flat again.   Watch for break.
TCK	16.28	16.54	1.60%		Consolidating.
AVG (daily)			1.43%
AVG (monthly)			-7.15%
AVG (inception)			15.55%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       4.61

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Sheesh, I sure am glad I put that caveat in there yesterday, because all those nice high topped hammers I saw yesterday did nothing but crash off my dome all day long today.  Let’s face it, I’m starting to get a little tired of this pullback (down over 9% this month!), m’self, and even more so given the relative reasonableness of today’s market on the specifically non-Jacksonian financial sector today.  Talk about a victory for the bloody Redcoats!

That said, I haven’t stopped picking up shares in various stocks that I consider bargains at these prices.  I’m just flabbergasted at how low ((SSRI)) and ((PAAS)) and ((SLW)) have gotten.  I bot more SSRI yesterday, and got another 2k of SLW today (at $8.26 on the gap fill), so I guess tomorrow is PAAS’s day?

For those of you who have been accumulating slowly here, bravo.  The Jacksonian Portfolio is defintely a Spartan marathon and not a dash to the corner deli for a pack of Kools and a pint of Sunny Delight.   This “bucking bull” volatility is going to be here for the duration,  so we’re going to have to “get in shape” by taking some cash off the table from time to time, like I did with ((TC)) the other day.  

As you may recall, that 1/3 TC sale and the liquidation of the original TSO position left me with some $14,607 in cash from the original portfolio.   I finally decided to put the bulk of that to work with an initial $10k position in ((TCK)), as we’ve contemplated.  It didn’t hurt that TCK was having a good day, let me tell you.  Now I have $4.6 k left in cash, and soon I’ll begin incorporating the cash component into the overall returns as well.   It doesn’t make any sense to take profits and then not incorporate that into the total return of the portfolio. 

As well, I’ve decided to be a bit more “illustrative” in this account by dealing with hedging in a different way than I do in my personal account.   As it’s too complex (and annoying)  to incorporate the short calls I usually use to hedge my portfolio, I will more simply sell portions (or all) of the  Jacksonians in order to accrue cash in the portfolio and take risk off the table.   I think that will probably be easier for you all to follow as well.   Your comments are welcome. 

I haven’t much in the way of commentary on the Jacksons today other than my notes below.  I will say that we continue to be brutally oversold, and we are due for a cycle low here in the precious metals any day now.  I continue to believe you will be rewarded for your perseverance here. 

Because I felt bad about all these bloody Jacksons (save TCK) I figured I’d dig up one “present” for tomorrow… a non-Jacksonian I did the fibs on tonight is [[MTL]] — Mechel OAO.  Coking coal, steel, molybdenum, it’s got it all.   I like it because it touched beautifully off the23.6%  intermediate term fibonacci line today and it looks like it’s ready to go again.    The other one I like for tomorrow we’ve already discussed… PPT favorite [[SPAR]].  Best to you all.

Name	17-Jun	18-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$   28.88	$     28.18	-2.42%		Will sell half on a break of $28.  Gap fill at $26.60
EGO	8.65	7.97	-7.86%		Trend line @ 7.78.  Bearish engulfing says we get it.
GDX	38.23	37.20	-2.69%		Failed hammer, back to support.
GLD	92.35	91.60	-0.81%		POG $934, within yest range
IAG	9.65	9.10	-5.70%		Sell 1/2 on break of support @ 8.75
MON	81.08	82.30	1.50%		Cramer beat it up tonight, a net positive.
NRP	22.13	21.95	-0.81%		5 red days in a row? C’mon already!
PAAS	20.39	18.59	-8.83%		Uptrend line at 17.95. Pssin me off.
RGLD	43.73	41.98	-4.00%		Hammer doji on trendline, EOD buying
SLV	14.12	13.97	-1.06%		POSilver @14.24, inside day
SLW	8.80	8.30	-5.68%		Filled that last gap at $8.27, bot 2k more $8.26
SSRI	19.22	18.13	-5.67%		Do not like this action one bit.
TBT	54.17	55.76	2.94%		Gap @ 54.21.  Could come back once more.
TC	10.50	10.50	0.00%		Perfect doji day.
TCK	15.31	16.28	6.34%		Nice first day on the job.
AVG (daily)			-2.32%
AVG (monthly)			-8.32%
AVG (inception)			13.91%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       4.61

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Well it was a day so full of hammers in the Jacksonian portfolio that we could have built a break front works that would have repelled the stoutest of cavalries.  You can see my comments in the notes about them, but generally a lot of hammers means that you are seeing final bottomings in stocks as they open high, chase a bunch of sells lower and then close high again, working out final selling positions.

I say this happens “generally,” but we shall see what happens tomorrow.    The good news is we’ve gotten to pretty oversold conditions in almost all of the Jacksons, so those of you who have been picking up bargainst these last few days, bravo.   I think we shall see some action as we head towards the end of the week.   As it’s options expiry, I hope it’s not that X-rated kind of action no sensible gentleperson wants to see.

I was doing some work on fibs, but I have to run to a lacrosse game, so my findings will have to wait until an addenda is readied with my findings.   Let’s just say these ten year fibonaccis are, in the words of Commander Spock “Quite fascinating, Jim.”

Many apologies to those not named Jim.

Here are the “notes,”  I will talk to youse latah.

Name	16-Jun	% Change	17-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 29.04		$ 28.88	-0.55%		Still in triangle consolidation.
EGO	8.51		8.65	1.65%		Bullish engulfing, two days black now.
GDX	38.37		38.23	-0.36%		Nice hammer on the day, despite slight down.
GLD	91.93		92.35	0.46%		POG $940, beautiful hammer.
IAG	9.54		9.65	1.15%		Hammer off the 23.6% fib, too.
MON	81.62		81.08	-0.66%		Opened down, nice recovery.
NRP	22.44		22.13	-1.38%		Red hammer just above the 38.2% (22.05)
PAAS	20.74		20.39	-1.69%		Held support at $20, oversold like a mothah!
RGLD	42.90		43.73	1.93%		Bouncing on 43.50, another EOD selloff?
SLV	13.99		14.12	0.93%		POSilver @14.34, $13.80 support held
SLW	8.92		8.80	-1.35%		Hammer on $8.50 support, nice trade PPT!
SSRI	19.62		19.22	-2.04%		I bot it one last time as promised! $19.02.
TBT	53.59		54.17	1.08%		Bot back 1/2 my calls today as promised.
TC	10.68		10.50	-1.69%		Caught support @ 9.60 and then took off. Hammer.
TSO	14.98		14.98	0.00%		Is TCK the replacement, let’s hear your vote!
AVG (daily)				-0.17%
AVG (monthly)				-7.44%
AVG (inception)				16.22%

______________________________

PS — note the final comment on TSO, which goes away soon.  I am seriously thinking of adding [[TCK]] which I added today at $15.04, to the Jacksons.   It’s only serious competition is [[BHP]].  What say youse?

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