Can Early Favorite Orb pull a “Big Brown” and win from the far outside post position?
My apologies for not ringing in this week, but Derby Week is like Mardi Gras down here and I’ve a lot of responsibilities. Many of them include chaperoning Large Net Worths around, paying close attention to their words of wisdom, and occasionally matching them bourbon for bourbon, deep into the evening.
Gold an silver seem to be hanging in reasonably well, here, and $1,450 seems to be holding well. That’s a level to keep your eye on. In the meantime, I like AUY, NEM, AEM, and of course SLW and RGLD. All on sale now.
As for the Derby itself, I have to admit a certain loyalty to Rick Pitino’s magic horse, Goldencents, which, donning Kevin Ware’s #5 at Santa Anita, scorched the pack for the highest Beyer speed rating of any of the Derby preliminaries (105). Nobody else came even close to that in the Derby prelims, which lends the cold credibility.
I also like Normandy Invasion, and not just for the cool, retro-WWII name. I liked the way Normandy was making good time to almost overtake Verrazano in the Wood Memorial at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack last month. That race was a mile and an eighth. I think with the extra 1/8 of a mile left in the Derby, Normandy should be sitting pretty.
Last I like the big winning colt, Orb… caution, this horse will likely be the favorite once all the Louisville Cardinal fans (Pitino’s GoldenCents) and multi-Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel fans (he will ride mud horse favorite Revolutionary) get too drunk to remember to bet by the 11th race. Orb has done nothing but win, and is coming off a sparkling win in the Florida Derby. The problem with this horse is it’s coming off the 19th hole, which has been a traditionally tough place to win from. Big Brown, however, won from #20 position in 2008 (see above) so anything is possible if you have a super horse. The question remains… is Orb enough of a Super Horse to win it?
Tune in tomorrow evening at around 6 pm on NBC! Look for me hanging off one of the balconies, hopefully not by one of my more delicate extremities.
Best to you all, and happy happy Derby!
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