Friday, December 9, 2016
Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Emergency Derby Picks

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Can Early Favorite Orb pull a “Big Brown” and win from the far outside post position?

My apologies for not ringing in this week, but Derby Week is like Mardi Gras down here and I’ve a lot of responsibilities. Many of them include chaperoning Large Net Worths around, paying close attention to their words of wisdom, and occasionally matching them bourbon for bourbon, deep into the evening.

Gold an silver seem to be hanging in reasonably well, here, and $1,450 seems to be holding well. That’s a level to keep your eye on. In the meantime, I like AUY, NEM, AEM, and of course SLW and RGLD. All on sale now.

As for the Derby itself, I have to admit a certain loyalty to Rick Pitino’s magic horse, Goldencents, which, donning Kevin Ware’s #5 at Santa Anita, scorched the pack for the highest Beyer speed rating of any of the Derby preliminaries (105).  Nobody else came even close to that in the Derby prelims, which lends the cold credibility.

I also like Normandy Invasion, and not just for the cool, retro-WWII name.  I liked the way Normandy was making good time to almost overtake Verrazano in the Wood Memorial at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack last month.  That race was a mile and an eighth.  I think with the extra 1/8 of a mile left in the Derby, Normandy should be sitting pretty.

Last I like the big winning colt, Orb… caution, this horse will likely be the favorite once all the Louisville Cardinal fans (Pitino’s GoldenCents) and multi-Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel fans (he will ride mud horse favorite Revolutionary) get too drunk to remember to bet by the 11th race.  Orb has done nothing but win, and is coming off a sparkling win in the Florida Derby.  The problem with this horse is it’s coming off the 19th hole, which has been a traditionally tough place to win from.  Big Brown, however, won from #20 position in 2008 (see above) so anything is possible if you have a super horse.  The question remains… is Orb enough of a Super Horse to win it?

Tune in tomorrow evening at around 6 pm on NBC!  Look for me hanging off one of the balconies, hopefully not by one of my more delicate extremities.

Best to you all, and happy happy Derby!


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  1. Track Philosopher

    While you are basking in the glamor of tall hats and mint juleps with just a dash of moisture…. some of us will be confined to a lazyboy and an Evan Williams on the rocks.
    While I appreciate your insight – The Track Philosopher has chosen the horse named after the Florentine navigator – first European to discover New York (with John Velazquez aboard)! And if he can take the Preakness in 2 weeks will make a great Belmont (New York) Triple Crown story .. I know it’s a stretch but I’m just sayin’!
    Stay Dry……Good Luck!

  2. Jakegint

    Verrazano is a great horse but maybe too obvious a pick (as we could say for Orb). He was getting chased down by Normandy Invasion in that very slow Wood… not sure he’s got the full distance.

    I’m probably over-thinking it! 😉


  3. John

    If my memory is correct Sunday Silence won from post 20 also.

  4. Jakegint

    I am not sure of that .

    I the end, Orb won and Golden Soul ( not Goldencents) effwd up my Derby bets big time!

    Still had a great time, ah well…


  5. John

    I actually checked rather than trust my memory and you are right. Post position 10 did the trick- at least I remembered a zero.

  6. Blind Read Ant

    Not to detract from the intel here Mr. Jake Gent. But. Del Mar race track is a sight to enjoy if you’re in the SoCal region.

  7. metalleg

    I think we are going to see a Triple Crown winner this year. It’s odd that it took 25 years between Citation and Secretariat and within those 25 years 7 times a horse won the first two legs but lost in the Belmont.

    It’s now been 35 years since Affirmed won all three races and within those 35 years, 12 horses have won the first two but lost the Belmont.

    I think Orb will finally achieve what so many have failed to do before him.

    • Jakegint

      Orb is a great horse, and maybe a Superhorse, even.

      However, even Big Brown didn’t get to that third crown — and BB was a MONSTAH.

      I’m just not sure the horses these days can handle the fields they have to run against to win it all. Back in the day, Secretariat (another MONSTAH) ran against 10 or 11 horses, not 19 or 20. It seems like the horses today are not bred to handle these short layoffs either.

      I wouldn’t be too certain. Love to see it, but I’m just skeptical, given all the chances we’ve had over the last 15 years.


      • Obummer gonna win
        Obummer gonna win

        The likelihood of there being a triple crown winner is the same as gold reaching 1,500 again.

  8. hitter

    OPXA – add here?

  9. Anton

    Thought this was good:

    “The Widowmaker Trade”

  10. bankindamonkey

    Jake, would love to get your thoughts here. Have you reconsidered an overall thesis, or changed your expectations on any of your positions? Just curious, cause I have been riding this thing down, and am starting to get anxious. I can’t imagine we are far from the bottom here, but I thought that at $1,500 also.

    • Formerly DMG

      I heard that. I know there was at least one other silly rabbit who was holding onto GSS like me. I hope, for his sake, he sold weeks/months ago.

      • Woj

        Jake, curious what your mentor has done with his pile of RGLD. Sold some, held, bought more? If you wouldn’t mind sharing, that would be fantastic, thanks.

  11. bob the inquisitor
    bob the inquisitor

    Jake, what’s your favorite Miner? There are a lot of ones that have been neglected that made big moves today

    • Jakegint

      My favorite miner is probably AUY right here.

      My favorite royalty plays are RGLD and SLW.

      AG and EXK should also be slowly accumulated.


      • Tarkus

        Your thoughts on ANV?

        • kohai

          hi Tarkus —

          I look forward to his thoughts also. I was disappointed to see Seth Klarman blew out his shares as well as Soros…


          I was lucky to trim a little last fall but have largely held into this murderhole. Perhaps a phoenix in store and all that. How about you, see anything interesting about it?

          • Tarkus

            Good morning Kohai! Sorry, was off the site for a few days. I like getting Hycroft for cost with all of its upside for free, and a current ratio of better than 4-1. But I tend to a fundamentals view and get roasted for it a lot. Anyway, I am in at $11.00 and so patiently waiting for a rebound. Earnings estimates are huge for the price, but are getting cut sharply as the lower PM values are matched against higher costs. No idea where it will settle. A lot of money was invested at $10.75 per share, so I am relying on those folks knowing more than I do. And if I do my math right, the call activity on one day last week represents about a third of all the outstanding shares! That’s somebody else taking a very big shot. Gold jumping as I speak, so…..! 🙂

          • Tarkus

            Make that 3% or so, not a third. My bad.

  12. Cheesefries

    Blue skies