Quoth the Dollar, “Nevermore”

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I’m going to be out an about quite a bit this coming week and not even back in the office until Wednesday.  I’m sorry, I can’t help it if much of the Free World is determined to secure my services in the the final months of 2011 (it’s beginning to give me the willies, actually), but there it is.  People are agitated.  I– to put it clinically–  am an Expediter.  I specialize in expediting Agitations.

And there it is.

Luckily for you, the tenor of my argument hasn’t changed much, despite the rollicking good time the market gave us for OpEx.   Isn’t it odd how during bearish-leaning periods, we get bullish OpEx days, and then the exact opposite during bullish leaning periods?  Maybe I’m being overly anecdotal, like Jay Nordlinger on especially strong tea.    This is the feeling I’m getting in my gut, however, and its a feeling that shouldn’t be ignored.

Why?  Because I got the same feeling around this time in 2007, just before the SHTF… or to be more concise, just before the SHTF in slow motion for about a year, crescendoing at year end of 2008.

I’m getting that itchy feeling again.  And here’s the deal, the dollar could be, or could not be confirming that feeling.  How’s that for precision, eh?   Well when you look at my daily dollar chart, you’ll understand the provenance of my thinking:

See how oversold we are on the dollar at this point?  We really should bounce at that $76 line, maybe after a day or two.   It makes all the sense in the world.   But then there’s the fact that we’ve busted through the 200-day EMA, and in an almost “broken parabola” fashion.  It wouldn’t shock me to see us test the lows given the sharpness of that decline.

It doesn’t make much sense to me… the EURO should be crashing, not the dollar.  But who knows what’s really happening.  For all we know Bernanke is running the presses to wallpaper Angela Merkel’s boudoir even as Europe talks about QE3’ing their own combined fiat experiment.   Much is misdirection in the global race to devalue one’s currency, and I wouldn’t trust one of these spotted badgers as far as I could smell them.

So let’s not play the “speculation” game, but rather the “observation” one.  Let’s see if we get that expected bounce off $76 and let’s see if it lasts.   If it looks like the dollar will rise again, I will likely get out of what little I’ve left on the PM side, except for some very thin core positions, and I might even dabble in the opposite of QLD, our old friend QID, and of course, Mr. Skiffles.

But for now, the dollar still plummets, so let’s be nimble and continue to gather that grain for the winter.  Soon it will be time to sell grain, however, as there will be many hungry locusts knocking at the door.

Best to you all, I will try to check in on you as best I can.

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