(Great Mash-up… dig the Vuvezelas, too!)
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Oh that’s just excellent. The Republicans win the biggest House sweep since the Coolidge Era (63 seats) and then go full Barney Frank belly up to the Messiah on the Great Tax Cut Showdown.
Sure, they kept the Bush 2003 Tax Cuts…
For two whole years! Someone with an economic brain in their head please tell me… what does that do exactly? How in the heck do these morons in Congress expect anyone in honest business to plan for anything with the Tax Sword of Damocles hanging over their head again for another two years?
It’s the Uncertainty, idiots! I think I shall propose an Amendment to the Constitution that might save us all heartache…. I will propose that every Congresscritter get at least 10 hours in university-level economics, with Econ 101 being mandatory in the syllabus.
And what’s the icing on the cake?
No, no… I mean besides Obama getting another chance to spout his tele-prompted class warfare inanities over and over (he is SO tedious) to the increasingly skeptical (and sparse) television audience…
No, the icing is this 13-months (yes, MONTHS!) of additional unemployment bennies agreed to by the spaghetti noodle “GOP Leadership” along with this useless extension. Yeah, that oughtta REALLY help knock down the unemployment rate. Just like it’s done in Europe, the original mother land of the Permanant 10% Loafing Community.
Hey, who cares, right? The other 90% of the working stiff community will pay for it, right? And hey, think of the incentive all those business owners have to try to entice those toadsuckers off the dole with their TWO WHOLE YEARS of low capital gains rates!
Seriously, it’s days like this that could drive a sensible citizen — one who believes in the true and original precepts of this country — to bleak despair.
And please, fellow conservatives, don’t come back to me with the following trope: “This will be great for the Republicans! Now we KNOW unemployment will be 12% in 2012, and we can GUARANTEE Barack is done and gone!”
Sorry, Homey don’t play that schist. I am a citizen of this beautiful country first and foremost, and if my party’s leaders are playing this two year collapse as a gaming strategy, then in my book they are as DONE as Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the useless sods in Congress.
Six weeks after the election and already I’m getting my firehouse out. Time to ream out the Augean Stables once again!
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All of the above will only continue to crucify the dollar on a cross of paper mache, but that is little solace to me. I sold some EXK today and more of my AGQ, but left everything else be. I will likely continue to trim tomorrow, for reasons mentioned on Sunday night.
All of these moves are temporary, and completed in order to raise cash for reinvestment after an expected pullback in the soon to be vastly popular PM markets.
My heart aches.
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Jake, with all due respect. The tax package isn’t so bad. You also left out the payroll tax cut too. Did you really think the new congressional idiots would get Obama who still holds majority to just roll over on the tax cut completely? Its the best possible scenario under the current circumstances.
If the GOP gets voted back in 2012 then they will be permanent. All you need to do is assure Palin is not on the ticket and we should be good. If the GOP lets that happen they won’t have a chance in hell.
ECON 101 should definitely be a mandatory – I like that idea. They have to pass with an 80% too
The cuts will expire in 12/2012 before the GOP has the ability to make them permanent … you don’t really think that will pass again in 2013 with the deficits getting larger and unemployment little changed do you? In fact, if the deficits increase under a GOP led house there will be another round of musical chairs and it won’t be just Dems the next time ….
The cuts are useless if they cannot be inculcated into long term planning by business owners.
Please, learn economics. This will not go well for either party, but the First Idiot’s continued Class Warfare rhetoric will not go well for him either.
You want to cut swelling deficits? You don’t put people out of work!
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I don’t think business leaders care … as IBM CEO said, we just need to know what the tax rate is gonna be … just get it done. As long as they can incorporate it into their cost accounting then they are satisfied … not knowing is the killer. Ironically, no body has done a better job of putting people out of work than IBM.
You are just reiterating my points now.
2 years is an eyeblink in business, and therefore useless for planning purposes, especially when the future is a complete unknown.
The harder you make it to plan for the future, you harder it is for employers to pull the trigger on hiring… even if they think the immediete moment is positive!
Again, review the Sword of Damocles story. Sometimes a classical education comes in handy.
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i.e. “Do we move our head office out of the US, or don’t we?”
The payroll tax is also useless…. it’s one year! And will they do anything to attack the monster on the other side of the payroll tax?
I know, I’m laughing too.
Ruefully.
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Wait till they make the fica tax unlimited … a lower rate for all but no more regressive BS, then they can say that a bipartisan effort solved the SS dilemma …
Sure, why not just turn Social Security into welfare too? Make the payroll tax unlimited while capping the benefits to the people who put all the money in. That’s fair, right?
I mean, how much more can the Democrats fuk things up, right?
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I’m no expert on Social Security but it seems to me that at this point it is a simple math problem.
This is how I see it…I might be totally wrong:
When SSI was started it was not a retirement plan it was an Insurance Plan – in fact it was called OSAID – Old Age Survivors Disability Insurance and was to provide for the impoverished and the infirmed.
One major problem with OSAID was that benefits were paid to the first generation who never paid into the system…meaning the whole program started out behind the eight ball, though at the time the demographic were such that it could be paid for.
However, as we are all aware, those demographics have shifted. Plus, our government in it’s infinite wisdom used the money paid in for SSI for operations. So the math is such that we are running out of money to pay the benefits promised…for which you only receive a paltry 1.23 percent for an average household of two 30-year-old earners with children (http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/1998/01/social-securitys-rate-of-return), that’s a crummy retirement investment.
Regardless of how we got here…I believe the solution is to institute a cut off date for SSI participation.
Anyone born after 1980 would automatically be withdrawn from the SSI system – no SSI benefits will be paid to them (not that they are getting anything anyway) and they will no longer need to pay into the system.
Those people would be able to chose to invest that “found money” or spend it in any way they want however a 5% tax credit could be instituted to encourage savings as well as pre-tax flexible spending for up to 15% of they adjusted gross income for investment in IRAs.
Those left in the system (note: includes myself – much to my chagrin) will then have to calculate the remaining benefits to be paid out and either Payroll Taxes will need to be adjusted, and age of qualification or amount of benefits will need to be adjusted until the balance can be paid to the remaining SSI recipients.
It’s a simple math problem. It’s the same people that scream about paying their taxes that scream about wanting to keep their SSI. Fine…lets pin the number down and figure out a way to pay for it.
Medicaid…on the other hand…now that’s a problem with little or no solution.
Just don’t tie it to inflation. Or continue to use rediculously fudged CPI numbers. Then they vastly shrink the liabilty in relative terms, while minimizing the chance for armed revolt (since it is a gradual process). Frog in a pot kind of thing.
“…we are running out of money to pay the benefits promised.”
We spendt the $ on running the gov’t … if the $ were invested by non-gov’t entities it would be there … AND MORE!
It was intended for widows and orphans and has evolved into a social benevolent fund by our legislature as a result of exponential growth when the boomers were all working. If it were just operated as a fund to assist US citizens who have contributed toward a retirement supplement including their widows and orphans it could be self sustaining especially if the contributions were in escrow and responsibly invested.
http://www.shadowstats.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays
This guy is still keeping the blinders on.
http://www.apartofny.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Bernanke-Disavows-Money.png
He just got a little cold and forgot that he was in a public forum. Nice photo!
LOL.
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Thanks Jake, Great work, thanks for your efforts and analysis
Fabian
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fabian Share Monday, December 06, 2010 12:12:36 PM
Re: nh post# 665024 Post # of 665077
Thanks nh…RE: SLW…Ordinarily we’d say, not interested in selling any BUT….SLW has had such a massive move in a short time, it’s well “ahead of plan”
IE. some of that big appreciation we expected in the future has just occurred. It has “stolen” some future performance.
It’s one thing to YAWN and hold it at an all time high of $22.
Quite another to YAWN at $40. We’re yawning no more and are open to the possibility of selling some.
OR…converting some SLW into SSRI as we think that at current prices SSRI may have more long term potential and we’re overweight in SLW vs. SSRI.
Yes, the JPM factor is the wild card and we are aware that silver has the potential of going massive short squeeze berserk on the upside. We’re pretty convinced that the two big bullion banks are trapped in a huge short position and the market has now become too big for them to manipulate it down as they were accustomed to doing. The market is in control and that is a potentially explosive situation when it comes to such extraordinarily large short positions.
In which case, going by valuation, overbought, extended…mean nothing so if we sold some, it would not be all for sure.
Fabian
For those truly long term…SLW goes higher yet if we’re correct that Silver has $50++ an ounce in it.
Trouble is…if a stock goes so far ahead of plan, one may have to live with a big pullback and long period of underperformance before it gets in gear again.
We generally prefer sitting out the corrections but if it’s way ahead of plan…the market may force our hand to sell some. ”
Ended up selling a little SLW near the close. In from $10s, first sale of SLW here. Recycled some into SSRI. Hope to hold the rest of the cash for pullbacks.
So do you think JP Morgan is going to get crushed out of existence? Or have their short positions bailed out by taxpayers?
Not sure this JPM thing is not anything more than a Bernaysian ruse.
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That said I agree w. the above on SLW’s moves… but I will hold til I see spiking.
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Of course, I have some from below $3, so… there’s some cushion there.
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This guy gets the award….
… with his mention of “QE 33!”
LOL.
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well you had 2 banging ass runs with EXK back to back….nothing is finer than buying a stock and seeing it go up the very second you buy it and never retracing and going up and up and up everyday…. 5.44 to 7.59 in 2 weeks is what this game is about….eggcellent dude.
be sure to let us know the “next” +40%er… (don’tcha know)
Here’s a nice bipartisan solution: Government workers make double what is made in the private sector. Why not just cut public sector wages in half across the board? That would help close the gap. When my grampa was in the “tree army” the last time a depression rolled around and was exacerbated by stupid puppets, his pay was essentially 3 squares in exchange for grueling labour. He thought it was a reasonable arrangement which far surpassed the alternative. But that’s where things will be in 2 or 3 years anyways.
Tax cuts don’t create jobs. CBO studies have shown that. That myth is what Bush Sr called voodoo economics. Anyway the debt is so large that taxes have to go up. And spending has to go down. By the way. Look at a chart of deficit over time. Republicans are the ones that added more debt. They are “borrow and spend”.
nothing our government has done in the last 3 years has created jobs, that we know, which leads us to understand, they really have no fucking desire to do shit except pander to China and play war games in Korea, leaving this country and our paper currency to wither on the vine.
Please show your “CBO studies” or keep your talking point ignorance for the less informed blogs.
Econ 101 — raise taxes, take money out of the private sector, leave less capital for growth of the economy, this all leads to continuously increasing unemployment….
The only reason to reduce deficits is to shrink the size of government, and therefore reduce their crowding out the more flexible and vibrant private sector. Increasing taxes (not keeping tax rates where they are is an INCREASE, no matter what the lefty propaganda) is exactly the WRONG move at this stage of the game, especially.
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Economics 102 – 12 yrs of Bush Tax Cuts produced how many jobs? The entire period corporate America shuttled jobs overseas and nobody outsourced more jobs than IBM. Anyone who took Economics in college also knows that the gov’t is the spender of last resort during recessions and depressions … check corporate America’s bank account to verify.
WTF are you talking about? 12 years of Bush tax cuts?? He was in office from 2001, and the real tax cuts weren’t even in place until mid 2003. And as soon as they were put in place the market started to respond and millions of job (close to ten million IIRC) were created as a result.
Bush Senior RAISED taxes, delusionoid.
I know all about government being the spender of last resort… do you think they’ve done enough yet?
Maybe another 155 months of unemployment bennies would do the trick?
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10 yrs so far with another 2 added … no response so far except lame ass service sector jobs – why won’t you admit that no decent paying mfg jobs have been created here unless by foreign companies?
I think gov spendt in the wrong areas – more infrastructure generally works and we didn’t even get those shovel ready projects off the ground let alone real major construction projects.
Our UC system isn’t nearly as generous as those abroad and those $ go right into the economy – Are you or Buffet gonna buy a new US mfg’d car or is GE/IBM gonna stop outsourcing and start mfg’g more at home? They are sitting on a trillion $ and refuse to employ Americans when they can go elsewhere for cheaper labor and no regulation – taxes are a small component and not the be all to end all.
The entreprenurial system is built on incentives, which are incredibly determinant on tax policy — capital gains first and then marginal income second. Lame ass service sector jobs? What do you know about our manufacturing sector? Anything?
Here’s something to chew on… policies designed to help “Labor” by pricing employment to the heavens send low value added manufacturing labor overseas, NOT income tax policies.
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Agreud on cap gains but income is priced in per unit so it’s just a need to know input.
Policies designed to help labor? Like tax cuts … Bush should have been paying attention to his Treasury Secretary rather than reading the morning baseball scores during his weekly/monthly economic updates. Had he paid attention he would have realized that despite tax cuts, investment capital was fleeing the US for the labor friendly shores of China once they decided to allow foreign investment. All he accomplished was adding to the deficit while pleasing his social & corporate sponsors.
As Cheney said, Reagan proved deficits don’t matter and the GOP has kept the ball and run with it.
The 1994-96-98 GOP Congresses got spending under control (despite the protestations of Clinton), which led to one of the best runs in US economic history (combined with a key cap gains tax cut, and a NAFTA deal, w. Clinton’s agreement).
Small deficits don’t matter only if higher economic growth accompanies them. When there is zero to no growth and ridiculous over the top spending then you’ve created a vicious circle which will only continue to destroy employment.
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What have the defecits been under Reagan and both Bushes … don’t tell me about Clinton?
And show me the growth rate under Bush II while he added tremendously to the debt via war and tax cuts?
You are talking two wholly different sets of economic circumstances, pre and post bubble…
And CONGRESS sets budgetary policy, not the POTUS. Bush asked for and got tax cuts… from CONGRESS.
Pay attention to how your government works.
Don’t lecture me on how the gov’t works … I’ve seen/studied/experienced it long enough to know it’s workings and shortcomings. All POTUS’s get what they want especially when they control both branches just as Bama got his healthcare bill. As Bush II said … “I’m gonna spend some of my Political Capital” …. until they lose the backing of the house/senate.
Sold EXK at 7.55 this am. Will buy back later.
jcv: Good move!
If it holds it’s 20 dma is it a buy? Same with ssri,slw, slv all sitting on 20 day
Simple question at Blob: Who is the more productive worker per dollar; the government employee, or the private sector employee?
Forgive Blob’s lack of response, he is a DMV worker and out on his 17th cigarette break of the day.
ha… this is great.
Lol – not as good as this:
How many people does it take to put up a Christmas tree for the Obamas? Small army of White House minions takes four days at height of economic crisis
Jake,
Right now on this down day for the PMS, I got my total PM portion of the port down to under 25%, which I believe is a reasonable amount for me to just hold.
Question is: do you think we rally some more before Christmas?
Thanks!
Could definitely have another run before the year is out.
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Thanks Jake!