I got out of gas with a win on the 7th. I tried a few value plays that didnt work out, but then I got into the junior miners a few days ago and we’re off to the races. Meeting the 3.5% for the month should be doable. We’re about halfway there.

This month we’re in natty ($UNG) and $CLF. I got on the CLF train but so far its run into a wall at the 50DMA. Natty just broke out today and so far im up almost 5% on my position, which is an entry and an add. I’m going to pull my CLF for a .01 % loss for the roll and let natty run. We have lots of month left to go and things are only going to get colder. Besides, if the market pulls back, $CLF is going to pul back with it, and I can find better uses for the money.

Its been a wacky month. I should have done better than I did. Shoulda woulda coulda, right? But right now I’m standing on +4% on my roll for the month, with positions in UGAZ and JDST winning and CLF a small loser. I am keeping the positions on through today. Gold is getting massacred now and has smashed through weekly support, so I think leaving JDST in place is ok for the time being. I’m excited about UGAZ. Seasonally its a good time to buy natural gas, but I wont get aggressive till UNG breaks up through the 50dma. So I will leave my tiny bit in place, and see where we go. The good thing about the levered plays is I do not need to put a lot into it to meet my monthly goals, but likewise I have to be very very careful to protect stops and minimize losses.

CLF well, its making a flag or something on the chart, but coal is so torched, if the republicans win i think coal starts to rebound.

Well after the “correction” I broke even. I wish I hadn’t gotten scared out of the initial snap back, but oh well. I did however, pick up XIV and DIG a few days ago and ran it up to being +2.7% for the roll for this month.

I havent put in the October deposit, had some expenses to cover. I have a lot of bonuses coming in the next month so I’m not worried. Will probably be making 4 months of deposits in November.

After ringing the register and making a tiny profit on the ensuing bounce, we’ve made a lower high and will likely make a lower low fairly soon. I’m in about as short as I can after yesterday’s flush, and heres where I stand

SQQQ @ 37.28

VXX @ 31.24

SDS @ 25.04

I’m just adjusting stops at this point. The market wants to go down and in all likelihood will, making a series of lower highs and lower lows until such point as it bottoms out. I will ring the register again if things get squirrely, but so far so good for this month.

Today started off great, but as soon as we tripped the 4.5% pullback area, along came the algos, and as of right now we’re putting in on sick reversal hammer. SPY came all the way down and past the 150ma, which was the point in Feb/March where they stopped on a dime and ran it up to new highs. Well, its looking like the start of a similar pattern.

Right now the trend is still down. All my indicators say so, but the algos do what they do, and for right now I decided to take some off the table, leave small positions, and see what happens. If the reversal holds, then its time to go long again.

So lets go to the scoreboard:

$BIS – cleared out, small win +1.5%

$SDS – took off most, +2.4%

$SQQQ – took off most, +4.5%

Combined, the win represented a 2.9% win for the roll this month.

Ok so lets just forget about September. I think at the end of the day I went like -8% or something on the roll. Those trades are behind me, and we’re just going to pick up and move forward. I added my bullet for September and will soon add my deposit for October. So at least that’s on track.

Where I stand right now?

Ok we’re short indexes and biotech. Yes I know its like Charlie Brown, Lucy, and the football, trying to catch another move like February to April where they gutted $IBB for something like a 25% loss. I don’t expect another move like that, but through the wonders of $BIS we can make some coin that way. So where are we at now?

SQQQ:Full position at 35.87 currently up about 5.5%

SDS: Full position at 24.80 currently up about 2.4%

BIS: Half position at 12.28 currently up about 1.6%

I think theres a lot of $ hiding in biotech and if we have further broad market weakness they’ll come for those guys too. I keep saying i’m going to get GPRO but i dont have the ammunition and Id rather not enter something that risky.

When I look at the market the trends are definitely down for the time being on nearly everything, so there’s no reason to put on the chain mail gloves and try and catch knives. Let’s just adjust stops and let it roll. I’m not touching volatility right now, let’s just stay where we’re at.

>MFW when gold gapped up overnight.

I was planning on dumping JDST on the open this morning, expecting a beautiful gap up to top off the whole thing. I did end up selling this morning. After a huge gap down. Ended up pocketing pocket change, .9% when I could have pulled the trigger yesterday for the 3% i wanted all along (absent last weeks fuckup)

So there’s that. Brings me to -6.2% I will just hang on the sides on gold and see what comes down the road with war and market collapse and the happening Fly seems intent is coming.

If it is happening, I am positioned well:

BIS entry at 12.11 leveraged against biotech (which collapsed 30% earlier this year why cant it do it again?)

SQQQ entry at 35.10

Today I added SDS entry at 24.44 and short AA @ 15.72 for something not leveraged but completely blown way up for no really good reason, a huge rising trend that seems pretty broken

Markets closed on the low, selling more after hours. Here’s to something. I’m not going to press a lot of these until we start taking out major supports:

SPY needs to take out the 50 DMA and then cut through 190.

DIA more of the same, 50DMA and the recent lows from the summer

If XLF can smash the 50 we’re in a lot better shape.

Ok I just blew up last week. Caught short. Ate a plateful of shit. Everything from the $MA short to bonds to the fucking $UVXY all got me in the nads for get this,

8% loss on the roll. Oh yeah. Everything stopped out and then some in some instances. It’s all very frustrating. I dont want to reconstruct the trades. Basically in a news sensitive environment I was afk. I had leveraged positions, nothing massive mind you, but they all collectively lost at the same time. Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday of last week was not a good thing.

So we’re down about 7.1%

I do have some decent news though, I’ve recovered 3% of the roll so far on $JDST which I am letting run. Which is sad because if I hadn’t fucked up all the other trades, I could let this horse run and ACCOMPLISH my goal for the month.

Here’s where I am at:

$JDST initial position and add – cost basis 14.19.

$BIS cost basis 12.11 initial position

$SQQQ cost basis 35.10 initial position

Right now $JDST is running nicely. $GDXJ can catch down to the seniors as gold prepares to possibly give up its large bottoming pattern, or in the alternative break down a huge descending wedge. Either way the dollar is soaring and I expect further weakness in PM. I don’t know if I can get back to even par this month but its possible, so let’s just see what happens. Can’t make it all back and get to our goal in a week and a half of trading, so let’s just do the best we can and chalk it up to experience. Meanwhile, this weekend’s paycheck I get the bullets in for September and October, so my deposits are done.

Edit: I pressed my $JDST and have a pretty much full position going into the last half hour. Cost basis now $15.04. It kills me that I’ve been waiting all month for a shot like this and it comes after I shit the bed. Chessnwine had a good point that tomorrow might be the date for gap down followed by bounce. If that’s the case I will be keeping an eye out for the profit taking button.

Great gap down on bonds means take profits on my $TMV. After FOMC there’s time to get back in i’m sure. Also, with the market a little shaky here, any sell off might show a knee jerk rush to bonds. Also, $TLT has moved really far, really fast, and is outside the BB so I gotta think profit taking for shorts is imminent.

I’m probably going to clear out $DIG today and just hold $FCX. $DIG has been very spazzy and has not gotten off the ground. Also, $UUP has not shown signs of retracement yet. The market is just grinding right now but its doing it sideways and I dont want to have a lot of longs on here.

Sold $TMV @ 45.91 for a 3% win representing a 1.3% win for the roll

Sold $DIG @ 78.11 for a -1.45% loss representing a .5% loss for the roll

TOTAL WIN LOSS FOR ROLL: + .9%

So we’re almost a third there before the halfway mark for the month which isn’t bad. Holding $FCX which is part energy part PM. Watching gold miners which are basing versus bullion.

Edit dumping $FCX the week is not looking great and this stock didn’t make the bounce I wanted it to. I’m letting it go as I think it’s dead money. I was only playing for a small bounce as it was, but since the market can’t get going, I don’t want to have this be a lead weight.

Sold $FCX @ 34.27 from 34.52. -.72% loss representing negligible -.2% loss of roll

Shorted $MA with chessnwine @ 75.26 in case things go south next week this one is already breaking down somewhat.

TOTAL WIN LOSS FOR ROLL: + .7%