A little late on this update since I’ve been intently watching aapl 445 weeklys putting forth the sideways screw, but I closed remaining weekly SPY put options at 0.25 as they were expiring today had opportunity to get out at about twice that but volume pocket below so I waited and sold at the higher low on 1m chart.
Recap: Bought at .05 sold half at .35, 1/3rd of total position at .60, and 1/3rd at .25.
Still holding last half of the June07 from $0.75 after selling half at 1.61.
Still own DECEMBER SPY puts @ $154 strike from $4.30. But this one differs in that it is more to preserve my capital and allow me to press my longs (that I expect to outperform the market) a bit harder in the meantime if the market turns and I’m busy taking off individual positions I get bearish more quickly. I plan on selling with plenty of time left to prevent theta decay.
Was right about market finding a temporary bottom, wrong about it lifting AAPL. Will likely scratch out for a loss or break even soon.
At some point I gotta get back to picking individual names to be bearish on rather than these SPY hedges. It does work just fine as long as the individual stock and option plays outperform the market in up and down markets, but the alternative of finding individual bearish names that break down to a greater than the market and can outperform in both conditions is much more ideal if you can get it. Maybe LNKD below $170.
I tried one bearish name early today in ASTX. Not perfect but should get the job done more than the SPY should we roll over, and maybe even if we go sideways.
Was tempted to take a bit of my JUNE FXY off today and put it back into UUP while keeping the longer term September FXY on. But the yen is still so oversold and showing early signs of breaking out of a wedge at least on a daily time frame. The Euro and Dollar have yet to clearly identify a direction. The euro has two potential outcomes. One is the upwards trend channel, the other is a head and shoulders breakdown. The dollar looks more like a breakout then not to me, but UUP still needs to clear $23. Both are consolidated pretty tight and ready to move and dollar is hinting slightly at higher and euro lower, but it isn’t clear yet.
GLD needs to close above $135 in the next 2 trading days or I am out of it as well as FCX. It also must not break below the lows before then or I am out.
That’s all I have to say for now. If I get a chance I will talk a bit more about correlations and managing portfolio volatility for greater long term growth.
5/28: When Dow was up near the highs again, this time I grabbed some TRV and LNKD puts. I will be getting rid of a lot of puts if we close this week at new all time highs. Good spot to manage risk to concerned about day-to-day run above new highs. On longer term basis anything in the 15500-16000 level in the dow looks like strength to sell into. I expect a pullback at some point. If this is a secular run starting I will have plenty of time to get back in above the long term megaphon/broadening pattern.
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