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King Dollar

This post was started yesterday but I didn’t get a chance to finish it, so sorry if the charts took place before todays drop in gold.

We have ourselves a golden cross on the dollar after a triangle breakout. A handle or bull flag may be forming. Grab some on weakness over the next few weeks.

$
The Gold Markets are on the verge of a serious long term breakdown. Currently, gold is hanging on for it’s life.
gold
Huge volume pocket below.

The thing about Cyprus is that banking and tourism are huge drivers of growth in any country. When governments start resorting to draconian measures such as confiscation of wealth do not be surprised to see civil unrest, and when that happens no more tourism. Then they come out saying “it(Cyprus) is an isolated event” as if they are concerned about confidence and believe it may not be an isolated event.

Nevertheless for the time being the Euro looks to be oversold. We could bounce at or near support, form a head and shoulders and then breakdown.
euro

The Euro is not exactly looking terrible, but it’s not looking great either. Wait awhile for a bounce then maybe consider a short.

Ultimately with the $GOLD markets on edge of a breakdown and with Euro not looking great and Dollar looking bullish, I want to be long the dollar. If we get a relief from oversold conditions in the euro I may even want to be long the dollar against the euro. If we peak above the recent trendline in the euro I will not get bullish, but

But if you had lots of cash and it took a long time to accumulate a position, would you store it in a place where it has recently taken deposits from the people, where tourism and banking savings are likely to decline and when there’s a perfectly acceptable alternative in the US dollar? I believe the euro is fundamentally flawed as a currency.

1)No central euro bond, individual country bonds.

2)civil disorder likely on the horizon

3)Tourism in Europe likely dropping

4)Crime to result also dropping tourism more)

5)Gold as an alternative to holding your money in Euros isn’t working either.

I am not going to short the euro based upon an idea when it is oversold, but long live the dollar.

1)Long the dollar

2)Short the Euro

3)Short Gold

Eventually long the YEN may make sense, but not there yet either.

The gold markets simply are too small to support the kind of money in the dollar. tens of billions of dollars in the gold markets is nothing compared to tens of trillions in the dollar.

Long live the dollar!

 

 

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Remain Calm

It’s easy to go 100% long and buy up everything in site in moments like this. Even if dow is going to 16k, it won’t do so in a straight line. Do not force the issue, you grind away and you do not try to make a killing with a single trade, in a single day but you continue to grind. Sure you can have a portion of capital used for swinging for the fences, I certainly do, but don’t make it your core strategy.

There is a saying… “If you weren’t at the wedding, don’t show up for the funeral” If you didn’t see this long-shot rally coming, what makes you think you seeing the market shooting to infinity in one fell swoop will also be correct? I am not saying I’m not bullish right now. It is taking a tremendous amount of discipline to void getting excessively long. Everyone is piling in.

Everyone wants to believe that gold will go higher… but it already has shot straight up. Here’s a question… Will QE3 cause more buyers? Is the reaction to this move and current price something that has not priced in QE3 already? How much higher until it is priced in? I do not know the answer to that, but it’s a much more intelligent way to think about it then to assume because there is QE, gold will always go higher just for the sake of doing so.

You gotta have enough guidelines to stick to a system habitually, rather than throwing caution in the wind impulsively at all time highs during the moments where everyone is euphoric over free money. This certainly may not end just yet, and there may be more free money to come, but it certainly has the risk of ending badly. Everyone could visibly see all the risks in 2008 and 2009 and 2010. Few could see the rewards to come. Now everyone is claiming the fed is a built in put for the market. Perhaps, but what about the risks of things that remain unaccounted for, the things no one expects to happen, the crash no one will be ready for? Cash is necessary, even if you fear it will inflate into oblivion… Even during great bull markets there are volatile times, the volatility appears to get more and more “smoothed” out as the market rockets higher by 3 times the amount of move as the downswing, but I assure you, the people felt it. I am not saying hyperinflation is coming, but that volatility even in the best case scenario for those long, will still be felt. The difficulty of the trading environment may not be seen yet, but I assure you it is still there. No one likes a boy crying wolf at a party and suggesting things may not be great, but do not think that just because it hasn’t happened yet means that it can’t.

I did something unconventional… I put in a low put order after getting long several names and I was long others but had a portion of cash on the sidelines that I put to work, The low bid on the gold put filled, I really didn’t think it would unless gold was much closer to 1800, but some sucker panic sold the put and he feared that he would have an unhedged position forced into being short gold as it shot to the moon. I did not expect the trade to have worked so well… so far anyways… I was expecting the position to kind of get run over for awhile, but protect me in case everyone started selling the news of QE soon. We are getting into the time when the “sell in may” crowd will be coming back in just a couple months. But there is an election around the corner and the market is sky high. We have not witnessed the turbulence that we saw in 2008 or 2000 yet and perhaps we won’t… but using this market euphoria to take some profits and wait for a pullback to get back in certainly seems more “normal” What would you do in this situation if you knew of no news? What is the tape telling you? Do not be distracted by news to the point where you ignore signals. The bullish percentage index in NYSE is not quite overbought and is still rising, which favors a bull market. The momentum is currently upward, but overbought signals exist.

Everything that has happened today is no doubt bullish, but if that has largely been priced in by the run up, can the market sustain itself beyond the rate that the fed is attempting to support it? I have my doubts. After all, last time RSI was this overbought was around April before a 7 point gradual correction. The time before was 2011. We did go higher for a few months but then crashed over 15% from the initial overbought signal. Before that? 2010 before the Flash Crash. However, the momentum turning also occurred before the majority of these declines which has not happened yet. We still may have our pre-election crash after all, or it may be delayed just long enough… we shall see. Think about this… Once Ben’s job is secure for 4 more years, is he still going to continue pulling out these stops? What will support the market then? Will the hope that he will do anything to keep markets going up still be there? At what point do investors realize this and start reducing positions to price in the “built in put” expiring? Whatever premium Bernanke’s desire to keep his job and keep 0bama in office by keeping stock market strong, that premium will decline, much like a regular put as expiration date approaches… That is my concern going forward. And if the market crashes, 0bama is unlikely to win, so if a decline happens, people will be fearful of Romney eliminating the one guy that kept markets propped up at this level. Not that Romney is bearish for markets long term, but it certainly screws with people’s preconceived notion that because markets are high, Obama, will win, and if Obama wins, the market remains at these levels, there is no garden variety correction and shift of capital into different areas and out of others, and no rotation… Perhaps Obama is extremely likely to win based on strong correlation of the stock market, but if the stock market starts to decline a little, by that same metric a Romney victory becomes less out of the question which means there may need to be a shift in allocation of capital, that realization in itself may be enough to get others to start to concern themselves over their positions and they may want to hedge in the event of Romney Victory and uncertainty over who will win which may mean more cash, which in turn may bring more people concerned over it. Then the high frequency tradetards come in, and the technicals start turning momentum, the concerns over the “bernanke put” reaching expiration date becomes an increasingly apparent issue. If no one expects a crash or at least only a very silent minority, the conditions are more vulnerable to it based on a few small changes and shifts that pick up speed like an avalanche.

There is plenty of trickery left in the bag, but the contingency plans have to be in place.Once that correction takes place and the premium is taken out, then we can build support and continue rallying strong again but I certainly expect some turbulence at some point! Perhaps right around October and into November. As much as Bernanke has intentions to bolster market, the market has pricing mechanism to take that into consideration. Of course, the price is generally the most recent transaction and if the majority is only willing to buy much lower, but has already sold and unwilling to short, the market will continue higher, running on the fumes of a select few until those few run out.

Nevertheless, it is entirely possible to over-think things. Keep track of your indicators, continue trading your plan, and don’t let anything else distract you from what the market is telling you. , this post is to come up with a theoretical condition for a crash just to make you check your assumptions of stock market to infinity at the door. Stick to your indicators and realize that even if macro and headline data is right, it can still be wrong if it has been priced in…. And you can do the work trying to determine if it’s priced in yourself, or you can watch your signals and technicals and rely on others that perhaps do, and begin to act accordingly before everyone else follows.

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No selling until everyone is buying.

Keep in mind that the big institutions that own a ton of stocks don’t have the volume to dump everything and take a profit. So he prices might as well be imaginary for them along with their inflated net worth… at least until the volume really comes in and they can sell. But it works in reverse… The institutions flush with cash that want to put a ton of it to work can’t without driving prices much much higher in the process, so much like the high volume capitulation of the credit downgrade crash just over a year ago, any crash may be dealt with buying. If volume goes parabolic along with price, then follow the institutions lead and use the buying pressure to sell into. Institutions don’t have a choice but to sell into it if they ever want to take a profit, because for all they know it is the last chance to liquidate at high, make believe prices.

The “boy plunger” Jesse Livermore said it best,

“If you operate on a large scale you will have to bear that
in mind all the time. A man studies conditions, plans his
operations carefully and proceeds to act. He swings a pretty
fair line and he accumulates a big profit on paper. Well, that
man can’t sell at will. You can’t expect the market to absorb
fifty thousand shares of one stock as easily as it does one
hundred. He will have to wait until he has a market there to
take it. There comes the time when he thinks the requisite
buying power is there. When that opportunity comes he must seize
it. As a rule he will have been waiting for it. He has to sell
when he can, not when he wants to.

Right now any major institutional investors who want to sell can’t do so in bulk. Anyone that wants to buy can’t do so in bulk. That is just the nature of low volume moves. Collectively it is only after a huge swell of buying demand occurs that the institutions that have been long will have to get out. And when they do it will absorb the buying demand. That means that for things to go higher beyond that, there needs to continue to be liquidity and more and more buying demand to keep the ponzi scheme going. Conversely, those that missed the move that were patient and don’t want to buy until there is the demand will all load up if markets crash. This is generally why a huge volume spike after an extended move in one direction after a huge price swing in that direction will often lead to a major reversal, particularly after the volume starts to decline again for the buying or selling pressure cannot continue at that rate any longer without more and more panic buying/selling than before it.

Should a major turning point occur this info may come in handy to better understand the mechanics of the market.

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watchlist

INFI,JNPR,ES,HK,HNR,PPHM,TTWO,NTLS,CAS,TAYC,UCFC,
CBM,ACAT,BXG,CAB,CONN,GCA,GPS,GV,IMOS,INFI,JVA,OCLR
Charts

Disclaimer: I got a little JVA today.
GOOG also broke above a nice little bull flag today

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Mild Correction Cancelled!

Or at least delayed!
I suspect we will get a new relative high in EWP now as we are very close. The S&P and dow and nasdaq are breaking to relative highs as well. Even though things may appear to be extended, I wouldn’t bet against the market here. You may proceed. So the warning is cancelled unless we close below the highs and then later close below the pattern’s low. That doesn’t mean we still can’t top later, or that this may not give a breakdown or topping signal in the future more credibility, but for the time being all signs are positive. TLT showing a bear flag rather than a tradable bottom (even though it is oversold). FCX breaking out and copper really moving. Gold and Silver ripping to the upside. All signs for the time being are positive again.

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A brief warning of a mild correction likely in $EWP

Based on candlesticks, depending on how today closes, it is looking like probably around a 4% mild correction from current levels in EWP, but by the time it confirms, it will be reduced to more like 2%. if you anticipate direction based on the 70% or so probability (based on past data) you can expect a greater decline, but the pattern itself warning of bearishness coming 70% of the time or so will not be complete until the end of the day, Regardless, I think some mild caution should be advised here, but probably not enough to refrain from holding bullish set ups just yet. Perhaps an increase of TLT as a mild hedge instead, raising cash from losing positions, or refraining from adding new ones may be a more appropriate response.

The expectation of a decline in Spain should be bearish for the market and bullish for the dollar, however the longer term double bottom pattern in spain shows that it is unlikely that a minor 5-10 day move will reverse the overall longer term trend and more likely that we will just see a minor counter trend decline.

More on the candlesticks may be yet to come if I find the time.

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Everything’s Great! Until it isn’t

The markets cheer of bailout and everything’s well. Suddenly capital is migrating back towards Spain and Europe. Everything is great and the debt problems are cured forever. Debt to GDP no longer matters as investors care not. Any problems would be dealt with a magical bailout and the money will poof out of thin air and magically add growth somehow decreasing the debt to GDP. The inevitable is prolonged indefinitely and no collapse is possible. Investors are patting themselves, and those who provide the stimulus that the junkies need, on their backs. Nothing can stop Spain from launching to infinity at it’s current pace. Forget a 200% gain in a year, Investments in Spain are like magic lamps, you put your hand out, make a wish and you are granted infinite wealth.. Or the Midas touch.

Forget holding anything at all but Spanish stocks. Afterall, The ECB is pumping hundreds of billions of euros in, as Spain has hundreds of billions of euros pouring out. It must be magic and the balancing act is magic. Afterall, Germany with all the bailouts they are making won’t be pulled down with the rest of the mess.

Perhaps this is the calm before the storm, or perhaps all is well again… until it isn’t. I am skeptical about us shooting straight up to 14k in the dow while all is well in Europe.

Of course we all know, sentiment over a supposed solution can change. Capital flows can revert back to their previous trend and the capital flows must continue in order for the rally to sustain itself indefinitely.

Nevertheless, stocks are going up and not many people are long. Everyone’s getting bearish and the market is leaving without them. The major macro factors are like a slow moving, but powerful train moving. You can probably jump in front of the tracks a few times, and especially when no one else is on the tracks…. but you better avoid the big money and not get caught following the hot money at the wrong time and be very quick to recognize when it’s coming. Great time to buy chasing a quick buck, but that train is coming and it will hit hard.

It’s been great following the market, however, tread carefully. The calm before the storm and dark before the dawn lulls those into thinking that the tide won’t move but one direction. The tide drifting out before the tsunami may comfort all those people to look and say “what cool seashells, now that the tide is out, let us all go play with sponge bob.” But before they know it, in comes the flood and they will be lucky to survive.

As swing traders, it’s often beneficial to forget the big picture. At least for 90% of the time. Focusing on what might happen in the long run can scare you away from several winning trades. But there is nothing wrong with gradually starting to keep a larger percentage of cash on the sidelines as we go higher in the face of increasing macro risk, while continuing to trade in and out of the best setups you can find. Part of strong earnings is preventing losses that are difficult to recover from. That may occasionally mean missing out, but as a result you reduce volatility and position yourself to take advantage of the supreme market conditions. Nevertheless, you have to adapt. If we come screaming past new highs and continue roaring forward, and a strong trend emerges, jump on until it slows or shows signs of slowing. But generally you have to be very nimble the more overbought things get.

For now, everything is fine, but I do not expect that to last. Fortunately when it all comes back and the tsunami comes, it will hit Europe the hardest, and capital will migrate into the U.S. of A, particularly into bonds and the dollar at least until the problem has subsided, or until a new problem in the US arises. Remember there was an August not too long ago where the market crashed and the S&P downgraded US debt. Yet TLT skyrocketed and yields continued lower and not everyone shared the same concern. In the short term, it was a huge event, but as time passed, it proved that it was only a short term move, similar to the ’87 crash or flash-crash in that it soon bottomed and recovered afterwards. Why? Because you don’t downgrade the US debt. Not yet. If the US debt is the problem, then the rest of the world should also be downgraded as thy are more of a problem. People will continue to buy US debt as it remains the world’s reserve currency. So bring whatever problems you have, the US debt will continue to be purchased. The concern occurs when other parts of the world collapse starting with most of Europe and other key currency countries like Japan. Soon, the US debt starts to become an issue because the money can only flood into one area for so long. With every dollar that comes the government’s way, they will spend 2, and most of it will be used just to pay off the interest on the debt. That is a huge problem and meanwhile local governments lack the power to keep printing to solve their budget concerns. So although there may be a constant creation of new debt, it ultimately will be owed back–plus interest, and we have gotten to the point where the whole system requires insane spending to even attempt to pay interest and make good on it’s obligations and prevent huge budget shortfalls, huge shortage of capital and economic calamity. Yes bondholders are perhaps understanding how unlikely it is that tying money up in 30 years in bonds will be a good thing. Nevertheless, when the euphoria of a 100trillion euro bailout of Spain subsides, TLT will be a hot place to be. The taxes around the world are being increased to try to pay for the bonds. Both on federal, national, and international level. Europe will triple it’s fines, put taxes much higher, and attempt to keep the people happy. Meanwhile capital will flee. Manufacturing will flee to cheaper locations with lower taxes. They cannot tax any nation high enough to keep the bond holders happy. Hike rates up to 100% and make everyone your economic slave and see how long they stay in your country. Make it illegal to move and see how much of them put in the work. There is a point when taxes increasing become very harmful, particularly when they no longer become competitive globally. This is not about politics. If taxes were stable globally, and not raised whenever the government comes up short, things might be okay. If you sat down to eat and a waiter suddenly decides that his bills are too high this month and the tips today are low and he suddenly decides to add a 40% gratuity or a tip because he needs more money, do you really think this solution would last? Or would you make sure that particular server never serves you again, even if it means going to a different restaurant? Some might resort to illegal evasion of paying the bill. Ultimately though the sudden tax increases are not policies that the various nations can handle or will be happy with.

Perhaps the problems will be delayed because of calamity in Europe will lead to a huge influx of new US bond buyers fleeing the garbage of Europe and seeking safety. That will give the us federal government a false sense of security and they will keep going into debt, figuring at the rate of new debt buyers, they will still make it until next reelection. And perhaps they will be right…. Ultimately though this will come back to haunt us. First, it must haunt the egregious socialized spending in Europe as they are the worse and to make matters worse have one currency, yet multiple bonds for each country, good luck trying to rob the rich countries to pay the poor when the poor spend like drunken sailors promising retirement at age 55 and full healthcare and full benefits that collectively they can’t afford. Certainly the rich countries footing the bill have citizens that want the same and will only vote for those that provide the most benefits. Meanwhile, the governments can’t afford it, and this scam will not be maintained. Austerity of course, must be implimented because you simply can’t pay off the loans and the interest that everyone owes and the obligations such as unemployment and healthcare when the euro nation is deep in doo doo with +20% unemployment.  Yet at the same time, if spending is indeed cut in Europe, people will be unable to pay their loans, cash will be hoarded and a slide into recession will occur causing prosperity to regress to where it would be without all this make believe wealth that is only temporary. The cash shortages in Europe and lack of spending of course will have a global impact.

That is what we will soon be looking at.

However, for now this is already known, both bonds and stocks present risks and all is well. We can push to new highs, but with September and October as typically very volatile months coming up shortly there are greater downsides to continue to accelerate and push down the gas peddle at the same rate. Sentiment among pros and rookies is not good and people are becoming risk adverse. So a crash is probably pretty unlikely just now. It is only when everyone that wants to buy has done so and suddenly something no one was expecting hit where a crash is possible. But the slow moving train is coming around the corner, and the deflationary vortex will return! Obama will be lucky to even make it to election before the market crashes However, he has been working his whole 4 years making sure that if a crisis hits, the republicans get the blame, so he has planned well, and may be able to reverse the strong trend of the incumbent being voted out when the stock market crashes afterall. Conversely, he has fallen out of favor poorly and things are pretty bad, so I suppose it’s possible that even if things are okay people still vote him out. Ultimately I expect it to be a very close race either way and would expect the margin of victory to be only about 2% of the popular vote. (obviously, I realize the popular vote doesn’t always determine the outcome). Nevertheless, for now, keep trading your setups but begin treading a bit more lightly than you normally would.

 

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three black crows 35s

If you were playing the 3 crows pattern, you would want to set 1 or 2 alerts and 1 buy. The buy would be a stop buy at/above the pattern high which signifies the breakout point. The alert you would want to set is at the pattern low which signifies a breakdown. If this alert triggers, you take your buy and move on…. or…. perhaps you instead exchange it for an alert, or wait a couple days.

Sometimes, you get bluffed out of the hand on a bad flop, and as it turns out you would have picked up a hand on the turn or a big draw on the turn and hit the river card. It happens. FIO gave us a bad flop as expected, breaking below the “low”. However this was a failed breakdown and swung up above the pattern high signalling a breakout. I don’t really know if you would count this as a breakout at this point as the pattern failed initially. Unfortunately although encyclopedia of candlestick patterns is a very great reference book there are many unanswered questions such as “Does this still count as a breakout?” and “at what point after the pattern has shown is a breakout in either direction no longer considered a breakout.” and “how does the ‘percentage meeting price target’ and ‘avg 1,3,5,10 day gain’ change when a 5% stop is employed? A 10% stop?”

Personally the setup still looked good to me. Breaking above new relative recent highs after making 3 failed attempts to really break down (a triple bottom of sorts) and as it broke out of the consolidation range, it looks like a buy. Well you could have a 10% gain from $20 to about $22 If you captured the best of the move.  Even if you just get a 3 day hold, you probably get 5% from $20 to $21. Such gains in a short amount of time are great, but does this really mean buying is the right move?

In poker, sometimes the cards turn over and you would have caught runner runner. Your 35 of spades on a 4 of spades as the only card in the board may have then given you an open ended straightflush draw and then you happened to hit. Unless you are making an advanced play where you call with the intention of bluffing or semibluffing the turn and can take the pot down often enough for it to be worth your while, you should almost always fold and move onto the next hand if the odds are against you and the cost of playing is too much which it probably will be with only a gutshot and backdoor draw. In this case, the triple bottom may have been enough “supporting evidence” such as a “tell” that opponent is likely to be bluffing or weak, and that calling or raising here to bluff the turn may be a good move. But certainly, there’s nothing but missed opportunity (and there may be greater opportunity elsewhere anyways) by folding, and it isn’t a bad move to fold. There are a whole lot of cards that may help you pick up a draw. Your opponent may give you a free card to see the river, and then try to bluff the river if he is a player who has a weak hand and isn’t going to bet on every street. In other words, if you hit runner, runner, you may get some more chips out of it. Additionally, if your opponent checks the turn and you have no draw, you may try a complete bluff. You don’t have to break even on your bluffs since you are getting decent odds, you have the possibility of hitting the long odds gutshot draw, and you have even longer odds of hitting runner runner and getting a lot more chips out of it. So there is the argument to be made that making the “bad play” can be marginally profitable if you call to bluff later on. That play depends not on your hand, but your opponent and your read. How this relates to the stock chart FIO is that it is one of those situations that in fact invalidates the breakout when their is first a breakdown, but then it swings around and breaks to new relative highs after also making a triple bottom. The “tell” is there, and this hand/stock/chart is now playable. Does that mean you definately should play it? No but there is an argument to be made either way.

Sometimes it’s best to just let the hand go and comment “nice hand, sir” and stick to the system of patience and only trading when you KNOW the odds are in your favor and you knowexactly how you want to go aboutthe trade. You have a choice in poker/stocks to try to make every move and trade/play anything remotely close to that of a hand that suggests it can be profitable. Sometimes your decision will actually have a negative expected value, but it may just keep you sharp and the marginal decisions you make that do turn out to be right will make you close to break even on the marginal hands to slightly up and if you can master the marginal decisions, you perhaps can make a killing. But if you are wrong, you perhaps are on the other side of the “killing” that is being made. The argument for the strategy is that being involved more allows you to see more situations and gain more experience and eventually will allow you to perhaps improve your ability at making those marginal plays. In the market, or table, you may become better in tune and this “loose aggressive” strategy (or loose passive aggressive) may actually turn out best.

But this strategy is on the verge of insanity and can cause you to form bad habits just as easily.

The other option is patience. Take the known edge at risk of potentially earning less than you could but providing more security of gains. There’s nothing that says you have to be super active when playing poker or stocks. Poker you actually may need to worry about how people perceive you as a player and playing more hands may get you more chips when you have a winning hand because of that perception. You also are forced into hands because of “blinds” and “antes” where as nothing but inflation causes a loss in value if you don’t play, and that is very mild compared to the potential gains you may make.

If you are going to play this, I would instead play it as the triple bottom breakout and that is an entirely different “style” of play or another completely different “deck”. That has to do with “price patterns” The way to deal with price patterns isn’t as cut and dry as “hold for 5 days and then sell for average expected gain of X”. You have to set stops, maybe use a trailing stop, and at some point take profits, either at the target, or use the target price to readjust the stop. It’s a much more “advanced” and “complicated” way to play and is similar to “small ball” poker than Daniel Negreanu made so famous. Perhaps the “big money” is in price patterns. The upside will far outweigh the downside and the holding period for winning stocks will be much longer. But the potential dangers and ways you can screw up taking profits too early to not compensate for your losses, or too late until they turn into a loss, or cutting your losses to quickly that you lose to commissions and don’t give the stock enough room to run, or not quick enough which can cause bit losses that are difficult to come back from. Making trades more often has drawbacks. The obvious one is commissions (or in poker, the rake). But it also has advantages. Even when you know the odds are against you, trading more often allows you to gain more experience. There may be other variables that also can potentially put the odds back in your favor such as a “tell”. There are more variables to monitor than just a candlestick pattern, and price patterns are the next variable that can provide a “tell” on the direction of the stock. Of course, there are several others just as one particular tell is not the only indicator in poker.

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