Going Against My Ego

I used to love this stock.  Way back when it was trading at $3.  I did the good old fashioned research on this one, and the 1k gold rally made Eldorado the road to fortune.  Why the hell did I get off that road?  I don’t know, what turned out to be my best long gold, will now turn out to be my best gold short.  Um…. hopefully.  I feel this is my second chance.  I gotta take it.  This is me catching lightning…

++  environmental concerns will blow up this stock

+     Gold’s stall in 2011 would give EGO a nice haircut

—  Weak dollar keeping long term investors strong

By the way, I’m covering all of PEET (except 1 share just to tease me).  It really hasn’t moved even though the market rallied, but I think I’m getting a little too heavy short.  Therefore for the rest of August, if I want to short another stock, I’m going to cover another one.

My nephew just started intermediate school today and I went to drop him off.  It’s the same intermediate school I went too.  It was a big emotional experience, both with memories of those interesting times of my life, and with a realization that I’m not a kid anymore.  I think it gave new meaning to me of the phrase “time flies.”  I remember when the kid was born, and now he’s retracing my steps of memories that seem like yesterday, when I was a kid myself.

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Dow up +200?  Ha!  I laugh at you.  This rally barely scratched me.  In fact, I put in 3 new shorts on past leaders that closed in the red.

NFLX @ 103.20

LULU @ 41.50

GMCR 30.67

I plan to earn a combined +8% on this trade with a 2-3 week window.

My weekend was quite interesting.  We had our first rehearsals in Samoan (epic fail, but nice comedy session), and we went to the Pirates of Caribbean site to see if Penelope was there.  Turns out, that big boat is not the Black Pearl, but it’s Blackbeard’s, not that you care.  Anyway, it’s the end of the month, which means I have a bunch of state tax crap to file, and quarterly headaches to calculate.  Trading stocks is so much easier some times.  Especially since I can automate things.

Anyone out there shorting gold yet?  I need a good gold chart.  3-month and yearly if you got.  Thanks!

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Excerpt:

”

GMCR took flight on Thursday after the company topped EPS estimates in its fiscal third-quarter. For the three months ended June 26, Green Mountain earned $18.6 million or 13 cents a share compared to $14.1 million or 12 cents a share in the same period last year. After adjusting for certain items, EPS came to 19 cents per share, topping analyst consensus by a penny. Revenue for the period spiked by 64% to $311.5 million.

The company shipped 846,000 Keurig-branded brewers in Q3, up 90% year-over-year. Given the company’s razor/razor-blade model for single-serving coffee, brewer sales bode well for the continued success of K-Cup portion packs as more households adopt the technology to use them.”

… this is such old news.  I’ve been cheerleading about this company all last year, saying how crazy their YOY growth was going to be, and now that 3Q numbers are out investors are acting like GMCR is going to dominate 2011.  There’s no doubt the Keurig machine is popping up in households across the country, but the curve is going to decline sharply soon.

So how to trade this?  Leave GMCR alone.  Chances are, I’m horribly wrong and GMCR makes new highs over and over.  Kind of like the embarrassment gave me 2 years ago.  That probably won’t strike twice, so I’m not worried about it.  However I like considering the alternative.  I probably would like to pick on CBOU, but I’m afraid they get bought out.  So what’s left is shorting PEET.  My target entry point is <37, you dig?  I’ve been eying this out for a while now.  It hasn’t hurt me staying short from 2 months ago, so I like where we stand here.

Last night I had a movie date.  Despicable Me in 3D.  The glasses were heavy duty and battery operated.  I was tempted to smuggle it out, the same way I smuggled in 2 Arizona ice teas, King Size Reeses Cups, BBQ Fritos, and Gummy Bears.  All I can say is, watch that movie this weekend, and pay the extra $4 for 3D.  Also, bring a large jacket to smuggle in the ice teas, because it just looks too obvious in your jeans.

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All right bulls, you had your little fun.  I attack now!

Updates are on the charts.  Shorting…

And one spec long.  Buy and fuggedaboutit…

I’ve been doing some pretty cool stuff this month.  I got casted for a play here in Hawaii, and I performed twice.  Even though it’s a nonprofit acitivity, we get a lot of people showing up to the show.  Couple thousand people saw us last week.  We’ll be doing one more show in Samoan.  Yes, Samoan!!  I have two weeks to learn a page of Samoan words.  So far I got my opening line…

“Rasela!  Ua e faalogo i a tala.”  That means, “Have you heard?!”  Haha.  This is going to be impossible.  I also got casted to be an extra in a remake of Hawaii-Five – O, but I turned it down because we have to do some training in a dojo or something. 

If you ever want a taste of the celebrity life you should move to Hawaii.  They’re constantly filming stuff here.  They just filmed Predator here, and now they are doing Pirates of the Carribean.  They are casting ugly people for that one so come on down!  (my teeth would qualify)

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Now that the products are out and the early adoption stage is almost complete, it’s time for the options to come back to proper pricing.  The PUTs on AAPL are still undervalued.  JAN @ 135 and alike are cheap, especially for simple leverage against a possible break in the market.  Plus, AAPL barely moved on today’s wicked rally.

With today’s big up day, go get your APPL puts.  Also, I’m scooping up two or three puts in NFLX while getting long.  I’m only getting long for a few day, just in case today’s reversal after its 2Q earnings is only a haircut. 

Market got way too shorted earlier this week, that was my mistake.  Damn that sucks.  I ended up panic buying GMCR at 29.xx.  I’ll sell this junk tomorrow for sure since I’m supposed to stick to the rule to short the bear rallies.

Today sucks.  I’m going to eat out somewhere expensive. 

Aloha!

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Hi all, I just got back from a weekend conference.  It feels like eternity without any internet, but now that I’m back I can finally see what’s happening on the market.  T-Mobile has not been kind either.  I don’t know why I bother to pay for the internet add-on since it never works when it’s cloudy. 

Anyway, checking back on the market I wouldn’t feel to confident holding long this week.  That’s just me though.  A lot of other bloggers are buying this market.  I think the base is getting weaker so make sure you have at least some shorts.

Right now I’m doing research on the media industry, in particular, I want to see if REALD Inc. is a legit investment.  It’s an intersting story stock.  REALD basically owns the niche for 3-d media.  So, if you haven’t been to your local theater lately, then check it out because the latest trend is 3-d movies.  You get to watch movies wearing some heavy duty 3-d glasses (not those red and blue cereal box glasses).

Meanwhile, I see the paradox on the consumer side.  Watching a movie costs $10.  Add popcorn and drinks, and you’re spending $100 on a family of five.  Movies last about 2 hours, so that makes it $20/hour (Netflix charges $10/month).  That rate is not my idea of quality and economical family time.  Haha.  Go to the park and throw a ball.  Anyway, people will go to the movies, even if they’re broke.   Here in Hawaii, that’s all there is to do at night.  But lately, with prices rising, and paychecks declining, it’s hard to pony up an extra $5 to watch something in 3-d…

Option A:  Watch movie in 3-d, take home cool glasses, eat 3-d ramen noodles by yourself

Option B:  Watch regular movie, cruise at In-and-Out burger while complaining about how predictable the movie is with your friends.

Find the trend and trade it!

RLD $19.85  … I’m still on the fence.

Target 1:  $15 (the price of a movie ticket in 3-d)
Target 2:  $22  (price of a non-3d movie date)

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