As requested, here’s the FAZ trade using the VIX on Thursday’s selloff. Vix 50.08 was an intraday point for market to selloff. I’m not sure if that’s an important spot for swing trading since the VIX is still stuck in some muddy channel. Anyway, so far, VIX under 50 has lead to some good squeezes. Today, it was above the point that gave us another leg lower in the markets, sending FAZ as high as 104, and FAS into capitulation levels…
FAZ heads to triple digits.
Comments »
What a stupid market. Anyway, if its going to act that way then I’ll have to lower my % goal this month by a few percentage points.
Right now, we’re seeing a lot of hesitation and delay effect still going on. Today we got that squeeze. This market is either too predictable or too unbelievable. Yeah, go figure. Everything is classic, except everything doesn’t feel right… we get a sell-off but it doesn’t feel like a panic type selloff; we get the squeeze that everyone was waiting for, but I’m like how soft is that? And at the close of today’s tape, we get the tail down on the squeeze, but its like I can’t trust it; market gaps up, you fade it; FAZ is up you fade that; market has become too predictable and yet deceiving at the same time. Lol. Seeing how messed up in the head this market is, I caught a 6% move in FAZ near the close… market squeezes and I still catch a gain in FAZ?! How is that possible? I need a break. In the back of my head I feel like the market is ready to get out a club and beat me up.
Finally, the VIX is down over 9% and FAZ is green. Bwa ha ha! Hmmmm. Scratching my head here. All I can say is that the face of this market is changing, therefore you should be adjusting your trading strategies a little. Trading in the past 2 months cannot be applied to the months forward. Game changes, play by the rules.
aLoHa,
Gio
Comments »
There was one fat LOL pattern that took about 2 hours to develop. It came out of nowhere. But that’s to be expected during these divergence days (ie, FAZ up, market up, FAS down; VIX down, market down). These are very tricky tapes to trade and if you find them, stay away until you notice one of the variables (market or indicator) catches up with the other. I noticed the market was catching up with the VIX around noon time so entered FAS; then remembering how girly girly the bulls were today went long FAZ on the fade (ie, VIX down -7% and Dow can’t even go +100 or take out the day’s open).
Whatever.
This may turn out to be a bear trap, with buying on the the relief rally delayed. I am aiming for late Thursday for covering/profit-taking for bears. Key words here is “delayed.”
Comments »From The PPT and other sources.
Relative strength stocks: DYAZ, DLTR (both have ugly 3 or 6-month charts, but nice weekly):
Panic sell mode: AFAM (looking for an entry long. someone slap me.)
Sector strength: Ags/Fertz- TNH, MOS (however, strong resistance above)
Near multi-year lows: ISRG, TIE. Looking for a possible relief rally in ISRG, or next big dump.
… I’m tracking the change in PPT scores for this basket of stocks. Will do a study on improving or worsening scores and their effect on price.
Comments »
Support excellence. Vote for the Quest.
Boo hoo. We are sitting on a “bear controlled tape.” That basically means the market will continue to drift down, and will only rally if the bears decide to take profits.
Look how pathetic bulls were today. Or maybe it was the bears that were in hesitation, despite being on the right track?
I’ll have to agree with Soren, that this market doesn’t feel like capitulation. Thus, we keep flagging lower.
Hey, we’re getting some panic into the close. That’s good. Need more blood. Maybe then we can get a VIX spike up, then we can start searching for another squeeze.
Laterz!
-gio-
Comments »I found a few key areas in today’s action. Notice the way the market rallied, then retreated, then…
… as you can see, Friday’s tape was pure nonsense. In fact, I’m throwing it out. Well, this is the chop zone (chart). The VIX was spiking up and down everywhere on the hourly, and the market was flashing green and red so many times I’m quite afraid to go driving through an intersection today.
Anyway, hope you all had a great month. It was an advanced tape overall for the month, so if you closed up then you’re doing good. Hopefully this gets easier.
Enjoy the weekend. Hope today’s tape doesn’t make you feel like this…
Laterz!
-gio-
Comments »
