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Trades and week review: Covered NCTY +17% , Sold ANCI +14%, JASO +5%; New shorts- MELI, AFAM, LULU

Made these moves on Friday…ftw.

Completely covered shorts:  NCTY 8.44  ( +17.06% short at 9.88.  Rational for short China. )

Completely sold longs:
JASO 4.60 ( +4.50% bought at 4.40.  Rational for long JASO.  Hedge against solar shorts. )

PALM 15.23 ( +4.10% bought at 14.63.  Rational for buying PALM. Predicting bounce. )

ANCI 4.15 ( +14.64% bought at 3.62.  Rational for healthcare rebound and breakout.)

New shorts:

MELI 27.90

AFAM 25.78 (stop at 26.20)

LULU 14.36

–  Hey guys, sorry this is late.  I had no time on Friday to post, and only now was able to get some internet.  Friday was a turning point in positioning portfolio.  I took advantage of selling the week’s rally and created a retail-short position.  I just realized the sale on JASO was an averaged-in bought price.  It’s kind of weird that my broker would put all my positions together under the same name, no matter how tiny the position.

–  Keep an eye on precious metals this week.

–  Look to fade energy part 3.

–  Look for China to breakdown

–  Look for short-squeeze in silver.

–  Also keeping an eye on tech, especially Google and AMZN for direction for the rest of the month.

Thanks for reading!

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Bulls, Don’t Celebrate Just Yet

evil-google-logo

Michael Jordan has left the building, and you traded away your best shooting guard Ben Gordon.  Even a bad team upsets the champs once in a while.  This doesn’t mean they’re not a bad team.  However, if a team is on a row, sometimes you just have to let them cool off by themselves.

Tomorrow I will sell some longs (ANCI, PALM, JASO) at gains (I hope) which will keep my record for this month pretty spicey on both the long and short side.   Yesterday’s follow-through was very weak, so I expect weak longs to bring us back down before we go up.  I am not in a rush to get long this tape, and neither should you.  I’m not going to cheerlead a tape when there’s still a lot of questions to be answered about the economy.  This is different from 2003-2005 when we knew less and partied more.  We will go back down again very soon, but not before we get some tug-of-war action going, and another false rally or two.   I haven’t quit on the bears yet.  Earnings season during bear markets is tough for bears because the bad news is usually already out.

Sell on the rips:

– tech

– solars

– retail

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Know When to Cover

bullsbounce

I’ve been slowly scaling out of shorts the past few days, while hedging for longs.  It’s important to understand that if you are going to short the market and play the big bad bear, you have to know when to take profits and adjsut your portfolio.  It really is the art of “wave-trading.”  Stocks don’t ever always go up, and never always go down.  I like to view trading as a chess match.  Never brag or gloat (there’s a difference between gloating and celebrating) a position, and never be apologetic for a loss (which is not the same as being arrogant).

Take for example my plays to short solar.  I’ve been banging out double digit gains left and right shorting stocks like YGE, CSIQ, SOL at their peaks.  I didn’t mean to get the exact top, but it just happened that way.  However, when we implement my style of wave-trading you’re not aiming for the peaks and troughs, just near them.  That is why it’s more of a work of art when it comes to entering and exiting positions.  Exiting the solar short trades took a lot more work and strategizing.  I couldn’t predict the bottom of the correction, but at the same time I didn’t want to exit to early therefore if you’ve been follwing me we did this:

1)  Take profits!  We took profits in YGE and SOL (PCX and DRYS too)

2)  Hold other winners:  We held CSIQ

3)  Hedge:  Buy longs against shorts in sector that have a bigger potential for a squeeze.  I went for JASO.

You know about the wins, but look how I minimized the losses on the rallies on the solar sector:

–  Our hold, CSIQ, blasted off, and we are now almost break-even.  However, our JASO hedge off-set about 1/2 of that, which is very acceptable.  I never try to hedge against a position to get 100% protection.  If I protect at least 10% of a gain, then I’m satisfied.  It helps eliminate stress too.

–  All that extra work was nice, but we already banked with shorts in YGE (+50%) and other plays.   So today’s 3% move on the larger indexes was hard on the bears, but too late, we did our damage.  Sit back and let the late bears jump ship.

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Commodities Set to Bounce For Bears

Market has been going nowhere again.  Except when you have a portfolio like mine, it makes you scratch your head… “market barely moved, but my shorts are way up” kind of day.  That sucks.  Anyway, just been kind of sitting on my positions and they’re boring me.  I’ll be making some changes in the next few days.

Notes….

– CSIQ +10%  ouch, but YGE is down.  These usually move together, so this divergence favors bears.  I’ll hold for another day.  Any bounce in solars is a good short.

– Coffee still fighting the bears:  GMCR about to break out again.  Expecting CBOU to give me a relief rally.  Why else would I buy it?

– Gold and silver have had healthy corrections.  If everything goes according to the book, they should be good longs for the next few weeks.  Although, I personally would like to burn the book.

–  China shorts are still good.  But if commodities do bounce, which I fear, then China related plays also move up.  It’s a weird correlation.  Maybe because they have all our gold?

–  Stay away from FAZ and FAS… unless you are shorting both at the same time.

–  TNH broke under 100… FINALLY!!  Dumb fert.  This thing is going down.

–  The mobile network stocks are in-play.  I think this is Fly’s favorite area to trade.  Anyway, I’ve been doing some research on some smart phones, and it’s going to get interesting.  STAR is your best bull in this play.  And betting against PALM this summer will get you in trouble.

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Lighten Up Swings, Allocate to Day-Trades

I’ve been going through some charts and it looks like we will be getting some rare day-trading opportunities this month.  I suggest taking partial profits in winners, while cutting losers that haven’t moved in your direction right away (ie, 3 days and you’re still in the red).  I will be allocating resources (time, money, studies) to day tradable sectors.  Right now there is a lot of uncertainty in the market.  The past few weeks have been a correction on a longer correction.  These subset trends can really catch people off guard and I highly recommend that new traders keep positions relatively small.  The patterns are against buy-and-hold whether long or short.  You have to blend flexibility with patience, which is very hard to do.

Currently my day-tradable sectors include:  gold, semis, oil.  I want to include healthcare/medical, but that is a little tricky.

Swing sectors remain:  Education, Coffee, Retail

Of course, within these sectors we are looking for “high-surf” stocks for day-tradables, while we are looking for under-the-radar trends in the swing sector plays.

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What Has Come of Us?

Sorry for the unrelated post, but this pissed me off.  This morning I went to a funeral and was asked to be the chairman of the ceremony.  I didn’t want to do it, but I did it anyway out of respect for the family.  Reading this article makes me sick.  I mean, come on people, what happened to common sense and common dignity?  This is why I have no problem shorting stocks- some people are getting desperate and will do anything for money…

Discovery of burial plot resale

scheme horrifies relatives

ALSIP, ILL.

Associated Press

Three gravediggers and a cemetery manager unearthed hundreds of corpses from a historic black cemetery south of Chicago, dumping some in a weeded area and double-stacking others in existing graves, in an elaborate scheme to resell the plots, authorities said Thursday. All four were charged with felonies.

Frantic relatives of the deceased descended on Burr Oak Cemetery — the final resting place of lynching victim Emmett Till and blues singers Willie Dixon and Dinah Washington — in hopes someone could tell them their loved ones’ remains were not among the pile of bones that littered a remote area of the property in Alsip, 12 miles south of Chicago.

Some found apparently undisturbed plots, but others wandered, unable to locate loved ones.

“This is a mess. We can’t find our people,” said Ralph Gunn, 54, of Chicago, who filled out a report for authorities after a futile search for the headstones of his brother and nephew.

Others cried and clutched cemetery maps as they waited for a chance to look themselves. They listened as Sheriff Tom Dart said the displacement of bodies “was not done in a very delicate way,” and that remains were dumped haphazardly, littered with shards of coffins. For graves stacked on top of each other, Dart said it appears they “pounded the other one down and put someone on top.”

A visibly shaken Rev. Jesse Jackson voiced the mounting anger at those who would toss the bones of the dead like trash.

“In my judgment, there should be no bail for them, there should be really a special place in hell for these graveyard thieves who have done so much, hurt these families,” he said.

By late afternoon, orange flags marking grave sites that might have been disturbed could be seen throughout the 150-acre cemetery, where as many as 1,000 burials are held a year. Officials took phone numbers and told family members they would call within 72 hours. Dart said FBI agents would help sort through evidence and identify bodies and that it could be months before investigators fully understand what took place.

“I feel betrayed and violated,” said Gregory Mannie, 54, a Chicagoan with four relatives buried at Burr Oak. Mannie was particularly worried about his grandmother, whose grave is in a more secluded area he did not visit as often as the others. He grew suspicious when he saw it Thursday — it seemed too clean.

“It’s almost like killing them all over again,” Mannie said.

The suspects, all of whom are black, were identified as Carolyn Towns, 49, Keith Nicks, 45, and Terrence Nicks, 39 — all of Chicago — and Maurice Dailey, 61, of Robbins. They each have been charged with one count of dismembering a human body, a felony.

Bond was set at $250,000 for Towns, the cemetery’s manager, and at $200,000 for the other three.

Authorities said Towns also pocketed donations she elicited for an Emmett Till memorial museum. She has not been charged in connection with those allegations. Court documents show she was fired from the cemetery in late May amid allegations of financial wrongdoing.

Cook County state’s attorney’s office spokeswoman Tandra Simonton said Towns is being represented by a private attorney, but Simonton did not know the attorney’s name. The Cook County public defender’s office said it had not yet assigned attorneys to the other three cases.

The investigation was prompted in May, when a groundskeeper discovered skeletal remains in the part of the cemetery that wasn’t supposed to be used, and cemetery officials notified Alsip police.

Around the same time, the cemetery’s Arizona-based owner, Perpetua Inc., called Cook County authorities to report the alleged financial wrongdoing.

Towns allegedly took cash for new graves, then instructed the three gravediggers to empty existing plots and move the remains inside to an unused part of the cemetery covered with chest-high grass and dotted with trees.

Perpetua Inc., said in a statement Thursday that the company is cooperating with investigators.

“We will make every attempt to insure and maintain the dignity of those that have been entrusted to our care,” the company said.

It’s the second time in recent years that Burr Oak has been at the center of an investigation. In 2005, the body of the 14-year-old Till, whose slaying in 1955 in Mississippi for allegedly whistling at a white woman helped galvanize the civil rights movement, was exhumed as part of a reopened investigation of his death.

Dart said Till’s grave was not disturbed in the alleged plot-selling scheme, but he did not have information about the graves of Washington and others.

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