Trade: Covered MELI -9%, APOL -2% Long AVII, STAR

New longs:  AVII (1.90), STAR (24.48)

Completely covered shorts: 
MELI 30.43 ( -9% short at 27.90.  Failed attempt at smelly meli short. )
APOL 66.85 ( -1.7% short at 65.71.  Failed attempt at education short )

Notes:

– Cleaning up on failed shorts.  This is a 2-week chart of MELI, which I sat through as it squeezed up.  Plan was for it to breakdown under 27.  However, tape got kind of quiet, then suddenly… BAM!  Momentum is back in market.  Not good to short quiet tapes…

– Buying the STAR dip after earnings.  1/2 position.  Beats, raises, but… downgraded?!

– Buying AVII, dice roll on new 52-high.  A lot of buzz going on in NAVX after MEDX pop.

It came true!  Ouch ouch ouch.  Remember:  http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/2009/07/20/ever-get-the-feeling/

Still, not too much harm today:

AFAM +2.17%
LULU +3.18%
MELI +3.5%
APOL -1.45%
And my  CBOU long is back to where I bought it.  Lol. 

… so, I’ll let the bulls have this one, but I’m still feeling like “is that the best you can do?”  And I’ll just continue to sit on these.  I must say I had a clean exit on many of my shorts earlier this month, but imagine if I simultaneously flipped to the long side, like PCX +10% or YGE +7%.   I’ll just reshort them later.  After going over today’s tape, I’m going to bet against China in the next few days again, maybe on Friday.  NTES, SNDA, NCTY all red today despite soft 2% market rally.  This is telling me something.

One last note… VIX was flat.  Super flat.  I think it moved .04, which makes today’s rally a pure bear squeeze.   This is a wash-out of weak and wounded bears.   Please step on the side.

This tape is so boring, so directionless, so flat, it makes one feel… tired?  Or maybe it’s just me, since I have a fever and I’m drugged up with all kinds of decongestants.  Doctor says I can’t be around people for 4 more days.

So here I am, home and bored, looking through a bunch of charts that are going nowhere, and it’s kind of reminding me of me.  Just a word of caution though, you don’t want to add to shorts or longs here (you will lose “energy”), neither do you want to fall asleep on your current positions (don’t be afraid of cutting down on them, especially the ones that haven’t moved according to your time frame expectations).  Remember now, it’s when the market is most quiet and when people are not expecting anything to happen when we get some kind of ugly storm of market chaos…

Yeah, it could go either way- it could be a titlewave of destruction for the bears that will send them (and the market) running for the hills.  Or it could be  a giant avalanche of death to the market in which the bulls got baited into skiing on what appeared to be powdered white snow.

… or it could just be an extended siesta time.  Okay, off to some crowded area to infect people.

Even if the bulls own this tape for a few more days I would not want to be heavy long at these VIX levels.  It looks like the VIX can just spiral down below 24, so I’m on “spike” watch, which usually signals a turn in trend.  The longterm VIX is screwed up, or at least very hard to read, so we have to pay attention to the shorter time periods and determine where complacency and greed kick in.

Ever get the feeling that the market is going to go against your positions, and you don’t do anything about it, and it actually does go against you.  And you were like… “damn, I knew this was going to happen.”

…I’m kind of having that feeling right now with my shorts.   Screw it.

This stock is money.  Top pick on The PPT for few weeks now, and is gaining popularity in the IBD community.  Today we had a confirmed breakout on price and volume.  FUQI this!