And CTIC takes flight!

Here’s a quick update for those who were following me on this trade setup.

The original post and chart for reference shows our buy-trigger points.  Again we were looking to buy on earnings dip.  Turns out I gave you 10-15% gain to play with on this strategy in about 5 trading days.

Here’s the original chart:

And here’s an updated analysis of the trade.

Notice:

• CTIC bounces right off support line drawn out using daily
• This spike came with a return of volume
• Buying the earnings decline was the correct move, again we are more concerned with the drugs in their pipeline which is scheduled to make some headlines in a few days.

Comments »

I usually don’t want to give out trades before I do more fundamental research, but here’s my technical notes on CFSG trade.  It’s on high priority buy.  I’m still digging up more information about the company, but from what I’ve learned so far, earnings and growth is through the roof.  More on this later.

This stock will be in the 20s soon…

Comments »

Used most of the weekend to update my “trading universe.”  For those who don’t know, these are the stocks that have great potential to move, hence my style of short-term swing trading.   This is all part of the thought-process I go through before I buy or short.

Stocks in play from prior list (these are still in play):

• CNinsure (CISG)
• Cyou.com (CYOU)
• China Fire Group (CFSG)
• NetEase (NTES)  …very popular stock to trade, again.
• Star Networks (STAR)
• Fuqi International (FUQI)

… Still heavy China focus.  Expecting a pullback that must be bought.  I will attempt to short FUQI, never tried it before, don’t even know if there are shares.  Let me know if you’ve tried.

Added over the weekend:

• SXC Health Solutions (SXCI)
• InfoSystems (INFY)
• Lincoln Educational (LINC)  …back on priority trade list
• Ross Stores (ROST) …back on list
• Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO) … high priority buy.  Just completed a healthy pullback.

… I think overall, the sectors that are picking up momentum are education/school and Chinese internets.

Comments »

Cell Therapeutics reports tomorrow.  If we dip, then we could get a good deal.  A lot of traders move this stock, so what’s probably more important than earnings is their drug acceptance dates:

Drug/indication: pixantrone for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma
FDA acceptance date: Aug. 24
Tentative FDA approval decision date: Dec. 24

Keep those dates in mind and trade around them.  My guess is two weeks before the acceptance date we will start to see more volume return to this bullish flag addict stock.

Ignoring earnings, here’s where we stand:

And of course, I got some help from zMoose, he too has been tracking this bad boy.  It’s always good to get a second opinion whenever you’re in the medical industry…

If you trade CTIC, make sure you keep an eye on DVAX (hat tip PPT crew) which trades in parallel.

Get up to speed on CTIC’s drug, Pixantrone, which is waiting approval.  From their website:

A Potential Treatment for non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma

Pixantrone (pick-san-trone) (BBR 2778) is a novel DNA major groove binder with an aza-anthracenedione molecular structure that differentiates it from the anthracyclines and other related chemotherapy agents. Pixantrone is under development for the treatment of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) with the goal of demonstrating improved efficacy and better safety than other drugs in this class.

Pixantrone Regulatory Strategy

We are focusing on obtaining pixantrone approval based on the EXTEND (PIX301) phase III clinical trial of pixantrone for patients with relapsed aggressive NHL. Enrollment is complete in this trial, and we have announced that it achieved the primary efficacy endpoint based on a preliminary intent-to-treat efficacy analysis.

In June 2009, we completed submission of a New Drug Application (NDA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for pixantrone to treat relapsed or refractory aggressive NHL. We requested priority review by FDA.

The FDA has granted fast track designation for pixantrone in third-line (or more) treatment of relapsed or refractory aggressive NHL.

… sweet.  Anyway, still riding high with AVII.  Cheers!

Comments »

Here we go… first I’ll start off with a July winner.  Don’t worry, I’ll get to the losers soon, which many people tell me they learn more from.  (You’re all sick!  Lol.)

Shorting NCTY was a timing play.  I used technicals to measure sentiment, if you know what I mean.  Hmmm, in other words, the way I read a stock’s pattern is price vs volume, and trying to decipher what the chart is trying to tell me.  NCTY has a strong downtrend which is the first thing you should look for in shorting stocks.  If you’re not sure, try screen through any stock that trades considerably below its 200 day moving average.  I’ve come to the point where I can just look at a stock’s price/volume chart and say, “Aye, this stock looks gross.”

– NCTY has strong institutional selling patterns.   Look at the dumps on volume.
–  For the wave-crowd, I plotted the Fib retracement level, which in this case, works well on the last 3 months.
–  Don’t just use NCTY to determine where to enter and exit the trade… I used industry leader, NTES, which is a more bigger and popular online Chinese company.  They both are in completely or partly in the online gaming industry, which has drawn much attention to aggressive investors.  Hey, that’s a good place to play momentum stocks!  NCTY is a fast stock, so make sure you take profits quick when you start to see volume picking up (ie, the trade is getting crowded).

Anyway, here’s the charts.  These are stored away in my notes…

 1.  Bigger Picture:  NCTY long term.

 2.  The Trade:  NCTY short term

3.  The Help:  Using NTES to predict entry and exit points:

 

 Price vs Volume rules!   And yes, my strategy is telling me that NCTY will be a good short candidate very shortly (no pun intended).  I’ll keep yah posted.

 

———————————————–

Short NCTY 7/2/2009:  http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/2009/07/02/trade-ncty-frg-57-drys-19/

Cover NCTY 7/19/2009:  http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/2009/07/19/trades-and-week-review-covered-ncty-17-sold-anci-14-jaso-18-new-shorts-meli-afam-lulu/

 –  Shorting NCTY on NTES news.

Comments »

Hey guys, sorry I was out on a mini vacation.  I usually take them after quarterly filings.  You know, those dreaded deadlines you have to make every April, July, October and January.  I was up to my neck in paperwork, and I now have many enemies at the post office.   Anyway, I didn’t really go far to take a break… just down to the other side of the island.  We cruised on the North Shore, and later spent a few nights at Ihilani hotel- I highly recommend staying there if you’re going to come to Hawaii.  There was some special deal too, so why not.  Here’s a picture I took at Waimea over the weekend.  I took this with a cheap camera, but I was surprised how it came out.  I love the silhouette style shots because it hides all the ugly people and it lets you concentrate on the activity more than the person.

If it’s too small you can click the pic I think.

Well, here’s my trades for July.  As you can see, it was all about timing the retracements on sectors, knowing when to scale out and probably what a lot of people take for granted:  knowing what NOT to short, or when to exit a dead trade.  It really was tricky to short the tape in July, and I made it known that if you’re not used to shorting then it’s probably better to stay out.  However, looking back at my trades, my best ones were shorts.  Just check out my YGE +52%, PCX +26%, and DRYS +19% shorts.  I did a brute force attack on energy calling a reversal and I hit it.   This boosted me up about 13% which is good enough for me to take most of August off.  Notice however, taking profits in them was very important, I mean these bad boys staged an impressive re-reversal to the upside.  Wow this market is tough!

So yeah, I took profits left and right, so that means right now what is left of my portfolio looks bad.  I’m just holding on to some loser shorts but I’ll just scale out of them.  The good thing is that most of these are new (within the last week) and I was entering in at 1/2 positions.  The market just didn’t feel right.  Remember all my “feelings-posts”?  Yeah, sometimes when you’re trained instincts give you bad vibes, it’s probably good to trade lightly.  I wish I held back a little more, but whatever, it’s all part of the game.

I’m still on red-alert with the longs side, meaning I will not get aggressive long with the VIX this low, and volume acting strange on the major indices.  Don’t get me wrong, I really like a lot of specialty sectors out there that are having nice earnings and positive guidance.  I remain a fan of coffee (CBOU, GMCR), discount-retail (ROST, DLTR), medical (AMED, CMED), and some Chinese ipos (CYOU).  These continue to be great buy-the-dip candidates especially on high volume sell-offs.  Well, it’s August so I’ll continue to trade light.  As you can see I’ve been keeping my closed swing-trades to under 10/month which is really small because the sectors I’m concentrating on can get volatile, and again, the market is difficult, especially for bears.  I’ll be using the next few days to go over some of these trades so you can see why and how I came through with the trade.  I usually do this for myself, but if you can take something from it then good for you.

2 Losers:

MELI 30.43 ( -9% short at 27.90.  Failed attempt at smelly meli short. )
APOL 66.85 ( -1.7% short at 65.71.  Failed attempt at education short )

8 Winners:

Sold NCTY 8.44  ( +17.06% short at 9.88.  Rational for short China. )
Sold JASO 4.60 ( +4.50% bought at 4.40.  Rational for long JASO.  Hedge against solar shorts. )
Sold PALM 15.23 ( +4.10% bought at 14.63.  Rational for buying PALM. Predicting bounce. )
Sold ANCI 4.15 ( +14.64% bought at 3.62.  Rational for healthcare rebound and breakout.)
Covered PCX 5.09  +26% short at 6.44 ( for PCX-short rational click here )
Covered YGE 10.14 +52.85% short at 15.50 (for YGE-short rational click here)
Sold  FRG ( +5.7% long at 3.48 )
Covered  DRYS 5.78 ( +19% short at 6.88)

Previous Month (JUNE):

Winners:
SOL @ 6.23 (+17.60% short at 7.30)
LINC 19.47 ( +14.86% bought at 16.95)
SFLY 13.20 ( +6.67%, short at 14.08 )
CMED 20.86  (+4.7% short at 21.85 )
AMED 31.20 ( +4.7% bought at 29.81 )
CBOU 5.66 (  +.000001% bought at 5.64)
Losers:  n/a

Cheers!

Comments »