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More on Foreign BPOs, Canada to Philippines

 

Hat tip to BigSky for confirming my belief that Jack was hiring foreign girls.  Lol.  http://www.wsoctv.com/news/18562683/detail.html

While the BPO industry in the Philippines was temporarily disrupted by the turmoil in world financial markets in 2008, it is confidently projecting growth in 2009 by an estimated 160,000 new jobs.   (BSAU.org)  That’s a conservative projection.

By the way, Telus International is one of the more influential Companies that trades on the TSX that is heavily investing in call-centers (BPOs) in the Philippine.  They have a website with a Philippine URL (http://www.telusinternational.com.ph/).  The ticker is T.TO  … Telus is a big company, so I’m not sure how much impact Business Processing Outsourcing has on their revenues.

 

 

EUROPEAN & AMERICAN COMPANIES THAT HAVE ALREADY OUTSOURCED TO THE PHILIPPINES ARE NOW SAVING 40% TO 60%.

HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY. LOWER TURNOVER. BETTER SERVICE. THESE ARE THE HALLMARKS OF THE PHILIPPINE BPO PROVIDERS.

MANY INDIA BPO PROVIDERS EVEN OUTSOURCE OR HAVE ALREADY SETUP IN THE PHILIPPINES.  (BSAU.org)

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I Think I’m on To Something… [BPOs]

So I went to Jack in the Box after a good ab workout at the gym and drove through the drive-thru (yes, I have to be specific because once I road my bicycle through the drive-thru.  It didn’t go so well) and right when I get to the window I get this response…

“Hello, good evening, my name is Linda.  What would you like to order tonight?”

… whoa whoa whoa.  Timeout.  Who in snobby stuck-up America ever says that in a drive-through window?  For years, all I ever got were disgruntled high school seniors giving me an attitude whenever I tried to super-size a Happy Meal.  But for real though, the person taking my order sounded way too polite and too scripted, it reminded me too much off… that’s it!  It reminded me of the Philippines.  Yeah, I just got back from there, you all know, but that’s one of the best things I liked about that country- friendly, hospitable service, and they don’t get tips.   So, if it wasn’t the politeness that gave away her non-American locality, then it had to be her accent.  What can I say, she sounded real attractive.  I’m good at these… from the sound of her voice I can tell you she was 5’2″, 115 lbs, black hair, brown eyes, 36-C, great smile.  Yup, I can’t wait to get my Jumbo Jack.  So anyway, I convince myself that she’s really near.  I drive to the next window, and what the horse?!  All I see is some overweight guy wearing a hair-net.  I earnestly took a peek behind him, but could not find my little princessa.  From then I knew, Jack-in-the-Box is up to something for sure.  Whoever took my order was in a totally different time-zone, different country.  She’s telling me “good evening” when she probably just woke up.  But it all makes sense too me though.  Mr. Jack has been charging for buttermilk sauce which pisses me off, but honestly, paying an extra 10 cents is not going to boost Jack in the Box Inc. [[JBX]] revenues or help them get through a recession.  If they are going to be competitive they have to get creative by cutting down costs.   I’ve searched some of their archives on their Corporate website, and they mention very little about outsourcing, but I am balls sure they are outsourcing some of their labor to call-centers in the Philippines.  It makes sense though…  Mr. Box can hire a foreigner to handle its drive-through windows, pay her 1/4 of an American worker, and at the meantime lessening the work for other workers (well that’s not true, they just layoff one American worker and give everyone else more duties.  Mwa ha ha.  Vicious.  But its money to be fought for.)

So, what does this mean for me.  Well, I’m a bit excited because I feel I’m early to the trend.  Everyone knows about India call-centers, and how much impact they have had on a Company’s outsourcing options.  I still remember one time I called Dell’s Tech Support because my Desktop wouldn’t work, and I spoke with this Indian guy.  First question he asked was “did you try plugging in your power?”  Whoa, I almost hung up.  But eventually we fixed it together so it’s all g.   Okay, where was I?  Oh yeah, India benefits greatly by doing work for lazier countries.  Just look at InfoSystems (INFY), which trains other companies how to run their technology.  INFY started Progeon Limited which is their BPO company (thats stands for Business Process Outsourcing, which is basically what I’m talking about here).  I really can’t dig out much data on that subsidiary, but it’s nice to see a giant like [[INFY]] adding fuel to this special type of market.

BUT that’s not where I’m doing my next batch of research.  Right now I am scoping out “underdeveloped” countries that are actually more advanced than the world gives them credit for.   Back in 2006, a study was done on Business Process Outsourcing from the Philippines, and the numbers were pretty impressive.  The Philippines generated revenues of $2.1 billion in 2006.  That’s third behind India and China and slightly ahead of Malaysia.  That’s a huge increase from the start of the decade when the outsourcing industry in Manila employed just 2,400 people and the industry had revenues of merely $24 million.  Fastforward to 2009 and the story was sort of lost when the global economy took a punch to the throat in 2008.  What many feel to realize is that there is a positive paradox for countries like India, China, and the Philippines… when “richer” countries begin to struggle, the demand for cheap labor increases.  Win for the companies that pay their workers 500 pesos a day.  So anyway, I’m sure that this story will start to be more popularized in the near future so just be glad we’re on this now. 

Currently I’m looking for more ways to invest in these under-the-radar economies but it’s a little difficult.  Once an ETF of these BPO influenced countries comes available I’ll be a strong buyer, often and early.  For now, those who trade on the Toronto Stock exchange have a few companies that invest in Philippine call centers.  For now, my pick though has got to be ICT Group, Inc. [[ICTG]] .  ICT GROUP currently manages over 40 operations centers across the United States, Canada, U.K., Ireland, Mexico, Argentina, Costa Rica, the Philippines, India and Australia.  Guess which is their fastest growing center?  You got it, the Philippine Islands.

Over the past year, ICTG has done amazing. They just had their conference call a few days a go and they sure surprised.

So for now, enjoy the ICTG ride.  It’s one of the closes instrument we can use to invest in BPOs that exist in economies in the middle of their growth stage.   In the meantime, keep an eye out for more of these companies, or a fund or ETF that will allow us to invest in overseas BPOs.  Imagine if you bought INFY at $5, or SIFY at $3.  You’d be ordering Jumbo Jacks for the entire block.  We’ll be given a second chance soon enough.  As we continue to struggle with labor unions, politics, unemployment checks, I’ll be very bullish on “alternative work forces.” Correlation implies causation.  Just like buttermilk.  I have no idea what that means, I made it up.

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Invest in the Well-Being Craze!

I’ve got a few stocks for you that I think are great to buy, but first let me tell you why…

We are living in a time where people are even more self-conscious than ever before!  Well, at least in my lifetime.  I believe this so much, that I think it will be one of the legacies of our generation… hmmm, if not legacy, then at least the cultural identity of our generation.  I guess we can thank the baby-boomers.  It’s interesting that the Baby Boomers lived in denial starting in the late 90s.  If you are a post-WW2 baby, then you probably know what we’re talking about.  When the millennium came along, you probably began to notice your age, and when that didn’t make you happy, you tried to ignore it.  Fast forward a decade later, and we can see that in the previous few years, this generation has said… “the hell with it” and are now starting to do something about the quality of their life now.  Students of marketing, you should be getting excited here.  This is a shift in society that is affecting social spending, creating new markets, and new demands.   Yeah, we can go and blame the recent highly publicized flu scares of late that have caused many to run to their doctors, but in reality, that’s just an event in a moment in time creating hype-demands and hype-markets.  What truly affects markets are gradual changes in the way society thinks, and this usually is detected after the trends are already well established.  Anyway, I’m just using the giant savings accounts (aka “buying power”) of the baby-boomers as an example, but it extends to the early Generation X population.  And more than that, these spenders are influencing the rest of our society.  Heck, I’ve been taking Zinc since highschool, and now I take multi-vitamins because I convince myself that if I do so, then I don’t need sleep (can theHawaiiTrader ever get sleep?  Sheesh, I’m still on Philippine time!).   Go ahead, and look at yourself and your lifestyle… how have you been affected by the well-being craze that is upon us?  Are you heading to Yoga?  Are you banking on turn-key body-building gyms?   Do you actually think a “cold-buster” from Jamba Juice is going to make you get well?  Or like here in Hawaii, if we get sick, we go to our favorite Vietnamese restaurant and order pho.  Oh yeah, don’t forget, how many of you are paying to lose wait?  What the heck… we’re having beer companies battling over who has the least calories.  Hey, I’m happy  that Odwalla figured out a way to smash 10 fruits into a small bottle.  Now if only I can sleep on a Tempurpeudic mattress.

Where money is spent, companies will emerge.  And when they emerge, you should start understanding why their stocks are moving up at such a fast pace.  The proof is in the salad (with low fat dressing and some vegetable chips with low sodium and no MSG)…

…those are my Top 5  “make-me-better” stocks.    Herbalife Ltd. [[HLF]]   , Northeast Utilities System [[NU]] ,  The New York Times Company [[NYT]] , [[MED]] , Colgate-Palmolive Company [[CL]] Short term traders can play the short-term high volume pullbacks; meanwhile, investors should buy on these pullbacks as the trend is still firmly up.  Pay attention to NTY and CL as they have good technical patterns that can predict short-term price movements in the entire sector.  CL is your big boss.  Get well soon!

-gio-

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Market in Confirmed Uptrend- Still heavy cash, but monitoring momentum plays

PPT showing heavy action in oil stocks yet again.  Large hybrid daily scores giving stocks like ION Geophysical Corporation [[io]] and T-3 Energy Services, Inc. [[ttes]] nice moves.  Careful trading TTES.

Latest notes from over the weekend( momentum stocks). ..

Consider buying: 

Patni Computer Systems Limited (ADR) [[PTI]]

 Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation [[BGFV]] … buy on next wave of profit-taking.  Stock had nice rally heading in and out of Q3 earnings.  Target is low 20s.

Consider shorting: 

[[ARST]  …  stock overextended.  Tracked this bull since early April.  High volume selling imminent. 

Perfect World Co., Ltd. (ADR) [[PWRD]] … Perfect World?  Not much of a perfect looking bullish stock.  This online China gaming stock is about to pullback.  Notice the recent low-volume uptrend.  Short this on next above-average volume on selling.

[[CBOU]] as much as I like coffee stocks, do not believe the all-natural chocolate beverages story.

I will make at least 3 of these trades tomorrow.  Haven’t made a trade for a long time!  Just watching while drinking margaritas and Caronas.  Let’s get the ball rolling again.  😉

  IO 4.34 +12.44% +50.88%  
2   PCX 4.29 +1.18% +24.22%  
3   TTES 4.29 +1.42% +22.22%  
4   ADBE 4.24 +8.44% +5.47%  
5   SVA 4.24 +24.34% +12.17%  
6   GLS 4.21 -6.03% +39.67%  
7   IPHS 4.21 +8.51% +37.83%  
8   DFS 4.17 +0.97% +28.15%  
9   HMIN 4.16 +0.24% +17.46%  
10   TXT  

  IO 4.34 +12.44% +50.88%  
2   PCX 4.29 +1.18% +24.22%  
3   TTES 4.29 +1.42% +22.22%  
4   ADBE 4.24 +8.44% +5.47%  
5   SVA 4.24 +24.34% +12.17%  
6   GLS 4.21 -6.03% +39.67%  
7   IPHS 4.21 +8.51% +37.83%  
8   DFS 4.17 +0.97% +28.15%  
9   HMIN 4.16 +0.24% +17.46%  
10   TXT 4.16 +1.71% +16.53%

4.16

+1.71% +16.53%

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Do Yourself a Favor, Upgrade to Windows 7 (and a longterm look at AAPL vs MSFT)

mac_vs_pc_tom_servo_crow

I just upgraded my operating system on most of my computers to Windows 7, and over the weekend, I can say it has been the best software I bought in a long time!  Well, of course the horrible RAM-hogging Vista may have contributed to that… kind of like living in a cheap motel for so long then getting an upgrade to the suite at the Four Seasons Maui, you can’t help but notice the improvements.  I think the best improvement has come to my 2-year-old HP, which only sports 2 RAM.  I turned off Aero on that machine because it was just eating up all my resources… it came to the point where it took 10 minutes to boot!  So who knows, maybe Gates decided to make Vista a piece of crap so that we would all be forced to upgrade to 7 and then venerate him as the computer-deity he once was.  Anyway, I’m now enjoying faster everything-  faster bootup (about 30 seconds now!), faster internet browsing, faster program loading, better desktop navigating thus faster working.

  Well, whatever you’re a fan, hater, or consumer, the release of 7 sparks an interesting case for anyone investing in Microsoft Corporation [[msft]] and Apple Inc. [[aapl]] .  Let’s face it, for the past decade, AAPL has had the superior operating system, but MSFT managed to keep its customers; and I’m sure as great as their ad-campaign was at humoring us to make the switch, AAPL’s rep of not being consumer-friendly (or too expensive, or reserved for the nerds) probably was their biggest obstacle at acquiring the marketshare they truly were seeking.  Hmmm… maybe AAPL was spending too much time in the early 90s trying to develop speech recognition software, a bit too early for their time.  Here’s a quick chart from earlier in the year on marketshare of the operating system battlefields….

 

So what does this mean for investors?  Well, I think the release of Windows 7, MSFT is back! I mean, let’s hope their Zune experiment is done… they need to realize they should continue to do what they are good at, and that’s making operating systems for the masses. They are the WalMart of operating systems, you don’t see WalMart trying to make a gourmet restaurant chain. Anyway, i did some work and came up with these two charts that show the effects (if any) a major product release has on the Company’s stock price. Again, thinking from an investor’s perspective, if you own a considerable amount of shares you would be keenly interested in the Company’s product pipeline and release dates. See if you can get anything out of AAPL and MSFT through the years…

 


 

 So what do we learn from this?  Well, the obvious one is that whenever a Company releases a product that changes the rules of the industry, you want to invest longterm in them.  AAPL was a popular stock through the late 90s, but it wasn’t until the arrival of the iPod that investors started to say, “hey, this Jobs guy can make us some money.”  What do we also learn?  When a previous industry hero reaches the climax of its growth stage, the investors in that company become too saturated.  The marketcap gets too big and you have a bunch of investors who argue over the future of the Company and can’t decide whether its worth sticking around or not.  This is the story of MSFT since its .com glory days.  What we have is a bunch of bored investors who want something big, something game-changing, something with huge revenue potential (like an iPod, iTunes).  If they keep releasing buggy software, MSFT looses the one thing it should spend a lot in protecting- their reputation.  These of course are all correlations, so there could be other variables that effect the stock price.

Just view Windows 7 as a x-large can of Monster Soda for now.  MSFT is an old man, once the energy wears off, we’ll see if he can continue the climb.

Well tomorrow I’m upgrading my tablet-pc to Windows 7, I expect this to elevate my laptop to godly mode.  If not, then I’ll just wait for Mac’s tablet.  If you’re a Vista user, please do yourself a favor and just upgrade to 7.  It’s well worth it.  When you do, let me know what you like about it!

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Have a good weekend, with a cup of coffee

hot_coffee

Hey guys, just wanted to drop in and say hi again.  Sorry I’ve been all hit and miss, but it really feels like I came home from my trip and someone dumped a bucket of to-dos on me.  Endless phone calls and emails… I shouldn’t have came back.  I don’t even know what month it is anymore.

Anyway, what’s been keeping me alive and awake for 20 hours straight so far is my good friend, coffee!  It’s also plain to see that this little piece of black gold has been keeping the market up.  You all know how bullish I can get when its time to buy coffee.  Here’s what we got…

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[gmcr]]

[[peet]]

Starbucks Corporation [[sbux]]   … is there a way we can invest in their tip-jar?

[[cbou]]

…all within buy range.  Right now it’s all back of the napkin technicals but I’ll punch it through The PPT for yah.  I’m quite the addict,

Just before the flight…

What?! A Starbucks Corporation [[sbux]] in the Philippines? So happy…

The real thrilla in Manila…

 You try and explain a drink not on the menu to someone where your not fluent in their language.  Was fun.  BTW, the drinks are cheaper in the States.

Gio’s non-girly drink (formerly known as StarBux Double Shot):

2 shots espresso + 1 xtra shot
1 shot soy (dairy kills me)
3 pumps classic
iced (tall or grande)
2 Grenades

Proceed to destroy a small village.

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