2. PEET- Black Gold

Everyone wants a cup. 

There’s a battle going on in the coffee industry.  It looks like our big play of 2009, GMCR, has grown up and wants to play big boss in the coffee underworld.  To get you up to speed, all you need to know is that GMCR and PEET are trying to buy out Diedrich (DDRX) coffee.  Very interesting.  You probably know Diedrich as Gloria Jeans Coffee Bean, those little coffee kiosks all over the mall.  Diedrich has been around for a while now, so the goodwill value is high.  Of course, it makes sense for GMCR to buy DDRX since they work well together in the home-brewing market they popularized.  PEET tried, but it looks like GMCR’s offer of $35 is the winner (DDRX price on outstanding shares remains near that price).  So anyway, it’s been about 2 weeks now since that offer, so I expect more news to start kicking in.  And therefore, I think PEET will make their next move on the chessboard.  Should be fun… I mean, it’s nice to see some acquisition activity occuring in the market again- a solid sign of a bullish industry.  Remember, with the economy down, people will look for alternatives before they completely give up on a habit.  Therefore, instead of heading over to StarBucks to blow $4 on a machiatto, why not blend your own K-cup at home?  That was our theory that worked so well for iBC (check out GMCR scores on The PPT!).  But, the story is now getting old and too popular, so let’s give PEET a try.  The black-gold coffee industry will be a great place for traders in 2010.  Do it long or short, but mostly long.

Target = $44

GMCR target = $83

Note:  Meanwhile, there’s another PEET that is quite hot…

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Okay, so usually the first month is indicative of how the year will be, so let’s just hope that the first day is not indicative of the first month.  If so, we are in for a rough year.  I already stated in my 2010 predictions that it is going to be a tough year for the market.  I still think we are in for a major pull-back, but for now the market has been trading in a range.

With that in mind, I’m keeping new pick Sirona Dental Systems, Inc. [[siro]] in check with 2 stops, one at 30, and one at 29.xx.    Just to help organize things and make following picks easier, I’ve decided to number each stock I highlight.  I don’t want to bombard you with too many stocks, but I hope to build a knowledge base for each stock.  This way, later on in the year, when I map the stocks, you can follow them easier.  So here you go, stock #1 of 2010, “SIRO.”

Go Lakers!

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Hi guys, hope you are having a fun and safe end of the year. I know you all will be partying before me, but once the market is done I’ll be going party hopping. You all know i need it! Anyway, I’ll be double duty in the morning, looking  for more write-offs and helping clientswrap up the year, so i thought I’d give you a heads up on some procrastination buys.

SIRO

GMCR (more more more!)

MED

.. All at half positions. So, in the meantime, I ask you… What are your  most memorable moments of 2009??

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Ah yes, the new year is only a few days upon us.  How time flies!  Since I am keeping trades very light, I decided to share some notes with you about trader plays I will get aggressive on in 2010.  Let’s get a good start shall we…

1.   China Agritech Inc (CAGC)  83% earnings in prior quarter.  Dropped to 40% in latest quarter, but still, those are rare and outstanding numbers.

A Better You:   Drink more water!  Every time you see a fountain, take a 10 second drink.  Most fast-foods offer bottled water, so skip the soda and grab that instead.  During and especially after a workout, drink lots of water.  You’ll be amazed how much energy you will have throughout the day.

2.  Short now, buy later:  Dril-Quip Inc
[[drq]]

Blah blah from their 10-q:   Dril-Quip, Inc.,designs, manufactures, sells and services highly engineered offshore drilling and production equipment that iswell suited for use in deepwater, harsh environment and severe service applications.

A Better You:  Spot a fake friend, and be a real one.  It’s easy to spot a fake friend… they only stick around because they want something from you.  Don’t be like that.  I hate people like that.  Instead, be a real friend… that means being happy when a friend accomplishes something, and being sad when they are having a tough time.  I’ll admit, I grew up with traits like jealousy and anger, and you think you’re winning when everyone is losing, but by the end of the day you’re not only different, you’re alone.

3. [[hitk]]

I’m a little excited about this stock.  It has proper fundamental technicals, and it’s in a good sector for the infected 2010.

Blah blah from 10-q:  Hi-Tech is a specialty pharmaceutical company developing, manufacturing andmarketing generic and branded prescription and OTC products. The Company specializes in the manufacture of liquid and semi-solid dosage forms and produces a range of sterile ophthalmic, otic and inhalation products. The Company’s Health CareProducts Division is a developer and marketer of branded prescription and OTC products for the diabetes marketplace

A Better You:  Smile.  Yeah, I know you’re shy, but just smile.  When you’re walking down the hall, say “hi” to a stranger.  Make it your goal to say it to at least 3 strangers a day.  And for those that you see in your daily routines, conscientiously compliment them- that means, it should be natural but at the same time there should be effort.  Don’t just say “you did a good job”, say why they did a good job.  Say it to your wife, kids, co-workers, boss, classmates.  Here’s a little tip for you single guys… girls love it when you smile and are sociable (think Will Farrel.  lol.)  .  And for some odd reason, girls love it when you give them eye-contact as you smile (well, not in some creepy way).  Best place to practice is at Star Bucks.  After you get your order, thank them by name, smile, and look them in the eye.  Your goal is not to flirt, but to be naturally amicable.

4.  Jinpan International Limited [[jst]]

Jinpan (JST) was one of our proud long term swing-holds we picked over on The PPT.  We liked it in 09, and it looks like it has some strength for the first few months of 2010.

A Better You:  30 minutes of workout, that’s all!  You don’t need to set lavish goals to weight training and dieting.  Most of my friends around me who do so set goals so high, it only leads to disappointment.  If you want to feel better about yourself, lose weight, improve your health, then you need to focus more on making exercise a way of life, and eating right a habit.

5.  Spock would approve.  [[kirk]] has a proper pullback pattern, and it is in buying range.  Get aggressive on the breakouts.  It has been rewarding buy-on-the-dip bulls…

A Better You:  Don’t trade just to trade, don’t trade money for time.  Sometimes we get into the habit of trading just to trade.  I’ll admit, I was stuck in that wheel, and I sometimes do jump back on.  The best way to counteract this problem is to accept simple truths:  1)  the market and stocks, will always open different doors at different times.  So, if one of them shuts on you, then wait for the next one to open.  Also, remember, if you’re trading to the point where you neglect the more important things in life, then whether you are making money or not, you are making the worst trade possible… you are shorting “time.”  Look at yourself right now- just how rare is that “commodity” now?  Much more rare than it was ten years ago!

6.  [[med]]

As I’ve stated before, the “wellness” sectors will do outstanding in 2010.  It’s about change, and mental toughness, and feeling good about yourself even though everything around you is falling apart.  We picked [[med]] as another  great buy over on The PPT.  Congrats to the players!

A Better You:  Reward yourself.  It’s rough out there.  It’s also tough to manage your own business, or raise a family if you have one.  So, sometimes you need to just reward yourself.  Don’t look at price, look at value!  That means, create a budget and call it the “reward budget”, and whenever you reach a goal, finish a big project, nail a new client or whatever, then go out and treat yourself.  Live in luxury for that day, without guilt because you earned it.   The most successful people in America do this.  Oh yeah, and just as important, don’t reward yourself if you don’t deserve it, and that goes for the same for buying stuff for your kids too.

7.  Sirona Dental Systems, Inc. [[siro]]

Here’s what I like about SIRO… no one really knows them.  I mean, we are confident in a confirmed market rally, stocks like SIRO will provide the highest rewards.  Unlike KIRK, however, SIRO dip-buyers need to be careful.  With volume and market-cap relatively low, the stock can move down quite fast.  Rather than “buy the dip,” we suggest you “buy the panic”… there’s a big difference.

A Better You:  Put yourself last.  I’ve had the blessing to travel around the world and visit many different cultures, and from my observations, those cultures that stress respect and humility are the happiest ones.  Sadly, the “American Dream” has lost its glamor.  It’s a dream that now weighs too heavily on material tangible things. Instead of getting paranoid and insisting on our rights, I say we should bite the bullet more often, let others stand in the light, and stand up on the bus.  I’m not saying we should be overly permissive or naive, but a true gentlemen knows when to stay calm and collected and knows when to be zealous and courageous.

Finally, who hasn’t improved themselves reading iBankCoin.com?  Mahalo to all our readers in 2009!  You all make us want to be our best.

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You’re down 2 with 10 seconds left on the clock in the 4th quarter… you just grabbed a rebound.  Two defenders are running at you in the backcourt.  Don’t be the hero just yet!

As the clock ticks off to the end of the 4th quarter of 2009 it may be tempting to make some moves in your portfolio.  I’m checking the peak hours of trading over the past few days and they are just flat.  A lot of traders are on vacation, or people are just too busy with the holidays.  What can I liken this to?   Well, it’s like trying to surf on a 1-foot wave.  You’ll be paddline too hard just to catch it.  So, in other words, while it’s flat out there, save your energy.  Anyway, as the Nasdaq continues to push forward, I would still be cautious here because a pullback is quite imminent.  If you’re an IBD guy, then what’s bothering you is that are the advance to decline numbers.  In other words, with volume relatively low these past few days (exception of Friday’s options expiration day) it seems like a few stocks with big moves have skewed the Nasdaq to the upside.  Then of course there’s the Santa theory with the market, which if it were true then it would work against the market this time with holiday sales down.  But, then again if you’re a contrarian trader like me, then it would work because you would bet against the obvious.  Haha, too confusing.

Anyway, for now continue to monitor stocks with nice price and volume action:  [[med]] (one of my “feel-good-stocks” picks), Fuqi International, Inc. [[fuqi]] (Sweet China stock), salesforce.com, inc. [[crm]] , [[tstc]] , J. Crew Group, Inc. [[jcg]] (our handsome stock), [[cacc]] (if you want to take advantage of trends), Almost Family, Inc. [[afam]] (… you again?!).

Don’t forget to start planning for your 2009 taxes.  You have only about one week to write-off a bunch of stuff.  Go buy yourself a business laptop, or pay your 4th quarter excise tax, or donate your earnings, or sell some losers.  This link is pretty good:  http://www.mint.com/blog/how-to/tax-planning-strategies/

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I can’t believe how many people are sick around my town.  Every where I go, someone is sneezing, coughing, spittig… get away from me please.  I literally am carrying around an antibacterial hand sanitizer and I trained myself to use it every 4 hours because my immunity is relatively weak to begin with.  Obssessive or cautious?  Both.  Anyway, I almost fee like it’s inevitable to catch something this winter so I’m really trying to get as much work I can do before it happens.  Get this… I was reading up on the Texans versus the Rams tomorrow and I found out that something ridiculous like 1/5 of the Rams teams is ill.  Haha.  Maybe an excuse for their 1-12 record.   Then again, when I was at the gym today I think there were no more than 10 people working out at the club.  Very odd.  Sick people make me sick.

In the meantime, with everyone around looking hashed and red-eyed like zombies, I’m trying to cough out a few good sick stocks for you.  There’s so many weird ways to play these stocks, just remember, they are trader-type stocks so make sure your holding period is brief. 

Bargain Buy + Bet on Reversal Up:  [[bcrx]]

You Penny Bargain Hunters + High risk/return:  [[INSM]]

Technical Trade on the Double Bottom:  Sinovac Biotech Ltd. [[sva]]     … if you can’t see where to set your stop on this one, then go suck on a Ricola.

Leader and Ruler of Sick Stocks:  GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [[gsk]]

Short The Screwed Up Technicals:  China Medical Technologies, Inc. (ADR) [[cmed]]    … yep, this China stock is

Well that’s a start.  I’ll be running more PPT screens later tomorrow night to cough up more stocks infected by the times.  Meanwhile, it’s 3am in Hawaii, and I should be sleeping. 

Stay tuned for more 2010 predictions!  Thanks for all the great input too.  We’re coming out with a printable one soon.   Stay well!

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