This is Why

… you don’t short on the next down day.  The market is schizo-bipolar-phrenic.  Keep your positions short term long, and long term short.  In fact, looking back, today was a good day-trading day, especially in the energy sector.  At the moment, I am dissecting [[hk]], which is going to be a great day-trading stock for the next few weeks.   Unfortunately I missed today’s run, but with I expect a reversal at the end of the week, so if I do get it, then I will short HK hard if it has no follow-through.  If HK can survive (ie, only drops no more than -2% from today’s close) then I will go long for a few days with a target above 20.  Nothing magical or rocket-science here, just simple momentum play as I’ve done them hundreds of times before.

Stock up on my portfolio:

[[gmcr]]  (will exit this week)

[[gil]] [[pcln]]  … approaching 200 again.  196 will be tough to get over.

[[hitk]]  … sector is losing momentum.  will revisit later.

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Well, don’t short first thing tomorrow.  I’m aiming for Friday for some quick and short term shorts.  Apparently, the selloff came on news of Israel and Lebanon screwing around with each other.  The market is giving us a kind reminder of just how sensitive it has become.  It’s a “stray-cat” market.  You know, that hungry cat that nervously sneaks up on some food, but immediately runs away at the sound of the wind blowing an empty can down the sidewalk.  Eventually the cat will have his meal.  But when he’s done, he’s gone.  Likewise, the market is hungry.  Buyers are getting desperate for a “deal.”  But they constantly get scared away at the most irrelevant points of news.  You’ll know the time to short- when the rebuying process has been fully complete.    In the grander scale of things, we are further than halfway in this process.  Ever since the Dow made a fierce rally since the spring of 09, we have witnessed one of the most amazing relief rallies ever.  I never forget what it was though.  A market, that was and still is, fueled by emotion, and less fundamental.  Just a small reminder for all the cats out there.

Stocks to watch:

– AAPL:  iPad sales hits over 2 million units.  I’m still waiting for mine in the mai ftwl! 

–  YGE:  A top short candidate on my list.  I’m looking for a double digit decline within 2 months.  Yay for us.

–  UA:   My research taught me that it is very difficult for a company to grow if they attach itself, or targets only one section of an industry.  UA has given itself the reputation of an NFL product.  Although, they do make good products in other active sportswear, the competition is limiting them in market growth and sales.  JAN 2011 Puts, ask $2.

–  PCLN:  I only ask myself, “Is the bounce over?”  PCLN is very dependent on the overall market… finally.  And its like by a magnitude of x2.  Dow names its price, PCLN doubles it.

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GIL +3%

UA + 3%

PCLN + $5

GMCR +3%

… Market looks like it’s in a reflexive bounce.  I mean I throw out 4 high powered momentum stocks that have had big reversals and they all are up on good volume.  They should all have nice follow-through in the next few days.  Stick around! 

I can’t believe I forgot to add HITK to this group yesterday.  I was grinding out the technicals on this momo stock.   [[hitk]] , up +11%.  [Note:  Shorting HITK after it goes above then below 25.xx].  Nice jump on volume today. 

Trade on!

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We are in the “Don’t Know.”  Yeah, so I turned it into a noun.  But  that’s what this tape is on the day to day basis.  We just don’t know if we’re going to be up 100 or down 200 on a given day.  It’s hard to measure volatility right now because we are in the beginnings of what seems to be a major reversal.  This is usually the best trading time for day-traders.  But if you’re looking for something to buy, keep an eye on what has been a constant leader.  Here’s what my scans are returning (although I must admit there are far more better short setups, but we’ll save those for rally days everytime we get under Dow 10k).  Enjoy, and make the trade:

Such an obvious short on PCLN, that we have to play it on the long side.  It’s just me and my habits…

Here’s my favorite trade of the year so far.  Absolutely nailed this one on the short side.  Hoping to get on the long for a brief rally….

So I called up my friend and asked what he was watching on TV, he was like, “Dude, I’m watching Glee.  It’s Lady Gaga night.”  I was like, “Dude, call me back when you put your balls back on… I’m busy watching Dancing With the Stars Finale.”

Congrats to Hawaii girl Nicole!

I feel better already.

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Thanks for waiting around!  It has been one of the craziest week… no, craziest month in a long time.  This past weekend was my grandmother’s funeral, so I was busy with that- funeral arrangements never go smooth, and a bunch of relatives came in from all over the world, and all they do is fight… for those of you who handled family funerals, you know what I mean.  Then there was my father, who is like some kind of mafia boss in our small town, and he was in the hospital for over half a month fighting for his life.  So much drama there… he took us in the room then started to read of his will… that pissed me off so I told him to shut up.  I told him quit being weak, you’re not going anywhere.  I was tired of him giving up, and I guess it worked because now he’s out of the hospital watering plants and feeding chickens and stuff.  Strange man.  So yeah, that’s where I’ve been these past days.  Sleeping in the hospital, taking care of out of town family, and taking over my father’s clients for the moment.  I really haven’t had time to mourn over my grandmother since this weekend, but I’m glad I did because now I feel like a heavy load is off my back.   For now, I just hope and pray that my father’s health improves so that he can get back to his normal life… wait, his normal life was unhealthy.  Get back to something else.

And all this while, the market has being tanking and panic-buying here and there, and I missed it.  These volatile markets are usually my playground, so I was kind of bummed out.  That’s okay though, because I see a LOT of short term trading opportunities that should last a few months, and plus, I feel no guilt since I can honestly say I did all I could to take care of my father, and help with my grandmother.  From my experience, it looks like we get about 4-5 trading days in one month that are well worth trading.  I’m excited about that.  However, as always, after taking long breaks from trading, I only let myself gradually get in the market.  It’s a tough tape, so we should all be taking it slow anyway until you get a good feel.  I do believe in “the zone” when it comes to active trading.  Just wait, you’ll get it!

Anyway, I’ve learned so much about life in the past few days.  Applying it is one thing though.  But it’s great to be back on the internet.  If there’s anything about the market (sectors/stocks) that I should know about, I would appreciate an update to get me up to speed.  Take care all!

-gio-

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Hi all.  I try to leave my personal-personal life out as much as I can on my blog, but I can’t help it because what I’ve been going through affects my trading and therefore affects you if you follow me.  As you know, my father is in the hospital, and he’ll be there for a few more days.  I just want him to get out… honestly, I want to switch places with him already.  Anyway, my grandmother was sent to the ER of the same hospital yesterday and she died of a cardiac arrest.  So can you imagine? … upstairs I’m watching over my father, downstairs my mother is crying over the loss of her mother.  I feel real bad for her.  Inside I’m a little weak, outside I’m pretending to be strong… you could argue I really am being strong.  What else am I supposed to feel?  So, tonight I’m heading back to the hospital to spend the night (finally they gave me a cot to sleep on).  I don’t have internet there, which is probably good, so naturally I won’t be able to monitor the market.  Only after hours when I go home, and even then, it won’t be the same.  With that said, I just have to play a weird side-line position on the market… but it’s all good, I feel like I shouldn’t be doing anything, shouldn’t feel anything at the moment.  Know what I mean?  Like, why be joyful over a win, when you just lost something big.  I feel guilty every time I laugh, because the moment feels very serious, very thick, like I should be paying respect to someone.  Right about now would be the perfect time for a “money is not everything” post, but I’ll pass.   Yesterday was a long day.  Just give me a few seconds to catch my breathe.

Sell in May, go away… that sounds like a good strategy, at least for me. No? 

Sectors to watch in May :

– Coffee

–  Airlines

–  Retail

–

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