The Week Ahead Sees Executive Order Actions

1. Geopolitical Events. On Monday President Trump will begin his first work day in the Oval Office. On Thursday the Eurogroup will meet in Brussels.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and existing home sales, leading indicators, new home sales, durable goods, Q4 GDP and Michigan Sentiment.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include MCD HAL JNJ BABA T BA GOOGL MSFT CVX ABBV. See the Earnings section.

4. Company, Analyst and Regulatory Meetings. Type 1s: none of note. Type 4s: none of note.

Monday, January 23:

The 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump will start his first full working day in the oval office.

Tuesday, January 24:

December Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 5.50 million from 5.61 million.

Wednesday, January 25:

The latest short interest from the NYSE and NASDAQ through the 15th of January on a settlement basis is due out after the close.

Thursday, January 26:

December Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 0.5% from 0%.

December New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 588,000 from 592,000.

The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.

Friday, January 27:

December Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 2.75% from -4.5%.

Q4 GDP is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 2.2% from 3.5%.

January Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 98 from 98.l.

Markets are closed in China for the start of the Lunar New Year. South Korea and Taiwan are closed as well.

Comments »

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck APFH APO HRTX TDOC VNOM ZYNE.

In After Hours Trading: CLC +.04 KMI -.10 NFLX +.02 PLXS +.05 WTFC +.04.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: PLXS.

Positive Guidance: NFLX.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -2.00, Dow Jones -17, NDX -3.75 and Russell 2000 -2.20. Asia mixed and Europe slightly lower.

Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.44% yield, one month change -10 and +39 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Utilities and Consumer Goods.

Weak Sectors Conglomerates led the way down with Industrials and Financials.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): AXP IBM SWKS.

Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): GE KSU PG RF COL SLB STI.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen sees continued improvement to the economy. Bond Guru says to go long, he called the last bear market 40 years ago. OPEC sees production cut sticking so far. 2016 was the hottest year on record.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CHKP +.21 KEY +.02 MTG +.06 TAL +.04 WNS +.07.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: WNS.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1569 stocks rise and 1354 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1603 rise and 1247 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 1,180,000 from 1,090,000.

Tonight sees China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales. The triple threat. Due out at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Politico

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its latest interest rate announcement at 7:45 a.m. EST and no change and will hold a press conference with ECB Head Mario Draghi at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks from San Francisco again this time at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at 8:00 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, SKLN PKY LQ PAY MNK.

Conference of Note

Canadian Power Finance Conference

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm	Upgrades	Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs	MBLY PNRA HGV	TGT BLMN GNC RCL HST
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup	BAM	AKS VSI

Comments »

American Airlines (AAL) is done with Spirit being a competitor. They just announced Basic Economy which means you get the same rights as a Spirit traveler.

They are as follows:

• One item under seat
• Seats assigned at check in
• $$$ for a specific seat
• No upgrades
• No changes or refunds
• Board last

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is rolling over technically and no one is short. Longs start to sell and there is no covering create pain for the longs.

As such, this is my first recommendation of the year and first in quite a while on the website. Short Spirit Airlines (SAVE) with a target of $40 and a stop of $60.

Sometimes short ideas are very simple and do not require a ton of analysis. This is one of those. Hasta La Vista Spirit!!!

Comments »

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck ETRM EVBN.

In After Hours Trading: ADTN +.07 IBKR -.26 UAL +.05.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +2.00, Dow Jones +15, NDX +7.75 and Russell 2000 +3.20. Asia and Europe higher.

Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.36% yield, one month change -23 and +33 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors Utilities and Consumer Goods.

Weak Sectors Conglomerates led the way down with Industrials and Financials.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): CNS FNB KMI NFLX SLM.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): BK JBHT KEY PPG UNP .

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg:

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): ASML +.26 FAST +.02 GS +.28 USB +.01.

Missing: SCHW C CBSH.

Lower Guidance: TSM.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1339 stocks rise and 1630 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 844 rise and 2041 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

December CPI is released at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%.

December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.6% from -0.4%.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book is released at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Politico

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks from San Francisco on monetary policy at the Commonwealth Club at 3:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will speak at 10:00 a.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, MSTR IMMU ASNA. TD Securities Mining Conference.

Conference of Note

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm	Upgrades	Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse		JCP KSS
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James
Buckingham	DECK
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim	AZO

Comments »

1. Geopolitical Events. On Tuesday Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, and Federal Reserve New York President William Dudley will speak at 8:45 a.m. EST. On Wednesday and Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will speak from San Francisco. The ECB will issue its latest interest rate announcement on Thursday, with press conference to follow. On Friday Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams will speak to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. Also, on Friday Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak to the New Jersey Bankers Association at 9:00 a.m. EST.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and CPI, industrial production and housing starts.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include UNH MS C GS IBM UNP GE SLB.

Monday, January 16:

U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day observances.

Tuesday, January 17:

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland begins with Chinese President Xi Jinping among the headline speakers. He has spoken and called for no trade war with the U.S.

Wednesday, January 18:

December CPI is released at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%.

December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.6% from -0.4%.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book is released at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks from San Francisco on monetary policy at the Commonwealth Club at 3:00 p.m. EST.

Thursday, January 19:

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its latest interest rate announcement at 7:45 a.m. EST and will hold a press conference with ECB Head Mario Draghi at 8:30 a.m. EST.

December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 1,180,000 from 1,090,000.

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks from San Francisco again this time at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at 8:00 p.m. EST.

Friday, January 20:

President Elect Donald J. Trump is inaugurated at the 45th President of the United States at noon.

Comments »

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck OOMA WPX.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +2.50, Dow Jones +14, NDX +6.50 and Russell 2000 +2.60. Asia and Europe higher.

Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.35% yield, one month change -12 and +25 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors Utilities.

Weak Sectors Conglomerates led the way down with Industrials and Financials.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due Tuesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): OZRK CMA INFO MS EDU SNY UNH.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: In a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen was positive on the economy and thought it was also close to the 2% inflation level. Lots of data this morning will move markets. Stocks no longer the most traded securities. Davos could be part of the global problem?

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BAC +.02 BLK +.12 FHN -.02 INFY +.80 JPM +.29 PNC +.13.

Missing: SJR.

Lower Guidance: TSM.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1145 stocks rise and 1761 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 959 rise and 1883 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

December PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.4%.

December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.1%.

January Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 98.8 from 98.2.

Politico

Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak at 9:30 a.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, JWA. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.

Conference of Note

North American Auto Show in Detroit. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm	Upgrades	Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse		IAG
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies	MBLY
Nomura
Needham	MX
Raymond James	FB
Guggenheim
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel
Robert W. Baird	ZAYO CCOI

Comments »

As a political science major, I have watched as The Fly he has morphed into calling b.s. on news stories. His greatest call of the year was on the election of Trump. Even I was a skeptic. Now I consider his rants much more closely.

So…The Fly has done a great job of calling out b.s. on fake news stories related to politics. That my friends is only half the battle. The other half of the battle is fake news stories on stocks which IMO is hurting investors as much if not more than fake news from politics.

Let me paint a picture with several examples of fake news.

1.The most offensive is someone, usually a hedge fund, starting a rumor of a buyout for a company so that they can dump their position. A seasoned pro can spot this a mile away. Or the hedge fund that gets short and then plants a story on the company they shorted.

2.Economic data points that get revised a month later after driving market in a wrong direction. Can you say unemployment report. It moves markets the first Friday of each month then a month later it is revised.

3.Company driven fake news. Great example Acacia Communications (ACIA) gets rocked on Tuesday when they speak at the Needham Conference dropping from $64.64 high to $57.74 by the close. Why? In their presentation, Acacia is guarded on China. Then after in 1 on 1s they clarify and the stock climbs from $57.74 to this morning’s price of $60.59. A serious WTF.  I guess Reg FD does not apply to companies.

I can go on with other areas but you get the point. Fake news creates opportunities.

The Fly is a stud on sniffing this stuff out. He is followed widely and I dare say that I would like to see him now take the lead on fake news related to stocks as well as political fake news. In fact, I would like to see a tag the alerts to #fakenewsthefly.

P.S. Related to #3 how many companies are getting prosecuted for insider trading?

Comments »

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck KOS NAK.

In After Hours Trading: KBH -.04.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -5.50, Dow Jones -37, NDX -14.25 and Russell 2000 -3.60. Asia and Europe lower.

Copper, silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.33% yield, one month change -14 and +23 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors most higher led by Services and Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Utilities, Consumer Goods and Conglomerates led the way down.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due tomorrow morning (by avg. trade volume descending): JPM WFC FHN BLK INFY PNC FRC.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: The dollar fell as did yields on the 10 year bond and Biotech shares fell on Trump’s news conference. Italian bank Unicredit seek to raise capital, $14 billion. ECB Minutes out later this morning. Obamacare clears first hurdle in the U.S. Senate.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): TSM +.14.

Missing: SJR.

Lower Guidance: TSM.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2026 stocks rise and 919 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1469 rise and 1209 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will speak at 7:00 p.m. EST. Also, on Thursday Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak at 8:45 a.m. EST, along with Dallas President Robert Kaplan (no time specified) and St. Louis President James Bullard at 1:15 p.m. EST along with appearing this morning as a host on CNBC.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, ELY MNST SPLK KMX WLTW CRSXF. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Needham Annual Growth Conference.

Conference of Note

North American Auto Show in Detroit. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm	Upgrades	Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch	HII ABC	KALU
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies	SXL	OKE OGS SWX ENLC
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James
Guggenheim	CAFD MRK
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel		GATX

Comments »

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck BRG MRDN PE PFGC.
In After Hours Trading: SNX +.48.

Lower Guidance: LMNR.

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -2.25, Dow Jones -1, NDX +0.25 and Russell 2000 -1.70. Asia higher ex China and Europe mixed.
Copper lower with silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.37% yield, one month change -10 and +20 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors most higher led by Services and Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Utilities, Consumer Goods and Conglomerates led the way down.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): KBH.
Due tomorrow morning (by avg. trade volume descending): DAL FCEL SJR TSM.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Oil looks to be holding above $50. Bond gurus Bill Gross noted a yield of 2.6% on the 10 year would end the Bond Bull market and Jeff Gundlach said a yield of 3.0% would kill the stock market rally. President Elect Trump denies any compromising information about him.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): MSM +.02 SVU -.09.
Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1867 stocks rise and 1054 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1861 rise and 979 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics Weekly

Mortgage Index rose 5.8% week over week.
Weekly Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Federal Reserve New York President William Dudley speaks at 1:30 p.m. EST.

News Conference with President Elect Trump this morning.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, SIG TINY IDRA CRM. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Needham Annual Growth Conference.
Conference of Note North American Auto Show in Detroit. The 19th Annual ICR Conference. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News
Key Upgrades and Downgrades
Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup  Upgrades NE ESV CAG  DowngradesDUK
Merrill Lynch  Upgrades VRTC
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James  Upgrades WPZ WRD

Comments »

I keep hearing on either Bloomberg or CNBC the market has had a huge run. Sorry but this is not the case at all. Not even close. The Russell 2000, Financials and Industrial might have had a huge run but not the S&P 500 which by default is the market.

Since Q4, I have a Model that tracks up and down moves. Absolute high to absolute lows.

Here is the table of the up moves.

Here is a table of the down moves.

So where do we stand now? We are just starting an up move after completing the smallest down move since we have been tracking, Q4 2012.

Typically, the first up move of the year does not start until mid month or in February. So could this year be bucking the trend. Me thinks that is a possibility.

More to point in this being a huge move. Hardly. Since Q4 of  2012, the move from 11/4-12/13 was the seventh best move. That is hardly epic.

Again…lies, damned lies and statistics.

Comments »