iBankCoin
Joined Dec 4, 2012
319 Blog Posts

Rule #1 Of Trading: Pay Attention To How Stocks React To The News, Not The News

What matters more than the news, is how stocks react to news.

Case in point our recommendation on Monday of Arkansas Best (ABFS) a trucker. Their earning report was heinous. The stock started yesterday down 10% but by the end of the day it was higher.

This reaction probably drove the shorts crazy. No it did. We are in this name because 20123 is a huge turn around year and the shorts are overstaying their position. The one thing I have learned is that short sellers are awful at timing their trades as they do not believe in technicals and the fundamentals will trump the technicals.

That gets to Rule #2 that we will discuss at a later date: Fundamentals RARELY trump technicals.

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Daily P/Laybook

January 31, 2013

In After Hours Trading

ACXM (+.03) DOX (+.03) ATW (+.17) CACI (+.05) CTXS (+.06) COP (-.04) EA (+.01) FB (+.02) JDSU (+.04) MUR (-.56) QCOM (+.14) SGI (+.02) TSCO (+.08).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -0.25, DJI -1, NDX -6.50 with fair value higher) Asia and Europe lower ex Japan which was higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures flat to lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0125. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings reports due after the close MCK CB EMN PFG PCR TRMB MCHP CPT ESS FBHS N PKI CYMI BYI. Due tomorrow morning among others XOM CVX MRK LYB NOV BEN AEP AON IR MAT PRGO TSN NWL LM TDW BEAM.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AET (-.02) MO (+.012) AZN (+.19) AN (+.03) CL (+.012) DOW (-.03) DNKN (+.01) HP (+.11) HSY (-.02) (-.56) MJN (+.04) TMO (+.08) UA (+.01) UPS (-.06) WHR (+.04) ZMH (+.02).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 990 stocks rise and 1961 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 752 rise and 1719 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

Weekly Jobless Claims takes on added significance in front of Friday’s Monthly Job’s Report. December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.8% versus 0.6%.

Politico

Vice President Biden meets with Senate Democratic Caucus.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings VTSS DLR. African Mining Congress and SEMICON Korea meet.

Conference of Note

None of note.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup NAZBY
Merrill Lynch VALE CTXS
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard FIO
Barclays
Jefferies
Raymond James
Bernstein KEY RF
Credit Agricole
Stifel Nicolaus
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings CLB
Robert W. Baird
Needham JDSU

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Daily P/Laybook

January 30, 2013

In After Hours Trading

AMZN (-.06) BBOX (+.14)BRCM (+.02) FSL (+.03) MANH (+.05) PLT (+.05) RYL (+.05) UIS (+.67) WBSN (+.01). CHK CEO steps down in Arpil as this corporate thief is kicked out.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -1.50, DJI -4, NDX +0.50 with fair value lower) Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0127. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings reports due after the close QCOM COP FB AMP AVB CTXS MUR STM DOX EA SWKS. Due tomorrow morning among others NVO UPS OXY MO MA AZN CL EPD DB DOW POT ERIC D TWC.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ADT (+.01)ABFS (-.18) BA (+.08) HES (+.40) LLL (+.13) MPC (+.23) MWV (-.12) NOC (+.39)SLAB (+.03) SO (+.04).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1742 stocks rise and 1234 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1342 rise and 1099 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

ADP Payroll Survey will be released at 8:15 a.m. EST and it is expected the economy added 165,000 jobs. Q4 GDP is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 1.2% versus 3.1% a year ago. Weekly Crude Inventories due out at 10:30 a.m. EST

Politico

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its latest Policy Update at 2:15 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings KMP. African Mining Congress meets.

Conference of Note

Research In Motion (RIMM) releases their Blackberry 10 phone today and holds event in New York City at 12:00 p.m. EST.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Barclays
Jefferies WPPGY
Raymond James JBLU
Bernstein
Credit Agricole F

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New Buy Idea

Transports are “el fuego”.  We have found a name that is playing catch up and the shorts are all over. This scenario sets the stage for a nice short squeeze.

The name is Arkansas Best (ABFS) which is a trucker.  Estimates are a loss of -$0.32 for 2012 and a profit of $0.57 for 2013. We love this type of earnings growth from negative to positive and the P/E goes to  19. One has to be out of their mind to short this name.

Moreover, there are 2 Strong Buys, 0 Buys and 12 Holds. That means lots of room for upgrades. The stock is worth $19.87 in a buyout as that is the upper bound in the Ativo ranking system. The Ativo Rank is a CFROI rank that Holt copied and is now used by the world thanks to Credit Suisse’s purchase of Holt several years ago.  Therefore, the institutions know this is a cheap name.

The Erlanger Short Ratio is 5.38 with an Erlanger Short Intensity of 78% over the past five years. Let the squeeze begin as it just moved through its 200 day moving average as well.

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Daily P/Laybook

January 28, 2013

In After Hours Trading

JOSB issued lower guidance on Friday at 8:00 p.m. EST, like they think no one woudl notice? AMGN Phase 3 Study on PAVES study met endpoints.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +2.50, DJI +17, NDX +5.50 with fair value higher) Asia and Europe mixed to higher with Japan weak. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude higher & Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0072. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings reports due after the close VNW YHOO STX CE BMC ILMN ZION STLD CR RCII SANM. Due tomorrow morning PFE LLY EMC F DHR NEE ITW PHG VLO CP TROW IP GLW NUE TYC HOG PNR BSX DHI ASH TUP among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BIIB (-.06), CAT (+.19), ROP (+.02).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1815 stocks rise and 1155 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1312 rise and 1034 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

December Durable Goods is due at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 2.0% versus 0.7%. Then at 10:00 a.m. EST Pending Home Sales are due out and expected to be flat.

Politico

A group of Republican and Democratic Senators reach a deal on immigration reform.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

DistribuTECH Conference and Exhibition.

Conference of Note

IBM Connect 2013 with PLCM presenting among others.

M & A News

No Merger Monday so far.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs AKS HEP CENX BBBY
Morgan Stanley ENR
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup SNE ASML BPO
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse HBHC
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard CMG
Barclays
Jefferies NSC

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Daily P/Laybook

January 25, 2013

In After Hours Trading

Earnings of note released after the close T -.02 CPHD +.09 CRUS +.22 CVD +.02 EFII +.07 FLEX +.02 JNPR +.06 MXIM +.01 MSFT +.01 SBUX IN LINE TPX +.05 VRSN +.08. Secondary Offerings announced ARGO due this morning CHUY MCP. IPOs due LPDX BFAM. IPO and Secondary information due courtesy of IPO Financial for their ranks we would direct you to: http://www.ipofinancial.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +4.50, DJI +36, NDX +11.50 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe higher ex Shanghai. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude higher & Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, loweer vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0526. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings reports continue to be heavy next week.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

COV +.04 HAL +.06 HON +.01 IMGN -.04 KMB +.02 OSK +.27 PG +.11 WY +.06

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1669 stocks rise and 1311 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1370 rise and 1098 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

December New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 385,000 from 377,000.

Politico

Filibuster Reform passes the Senate convincingly.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

CIBC 16th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Confernce. Analyst meetings of note WPI.

Conference of Note

World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley SNI
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup WNS JNS
Merrill Lynch SNE UAL
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse JNS
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Barclays
Jefferies
Dahlman Rose HBNC AGU

Comments »

Why I Choose Gordon Gekko As My Icon

There is a very good reason I use Gordon Gekko as my icon. First, he has the same initials as me. Second he trades on inside information which is the EXACT opposite of what I do so there is a bit of irony in my icon.

My process combines fundamental quantitative models + technicals + plus lots of reading to get my ideas. Most hedge fund and mutual fund managers do not have the ability to replicate that process because they like to claim they have the “channel” edge.

With the recent insider trading arrests continuing at  a brisk clip, it is no wonder managers are under-performing as they are now afraid of their “channel” edge. They will get to my process but it will take them years to develop. How can I be so sure of this? I have covered the groups I speak of for 26 years.

So my advantage will continue and I will continue to live by Gordon Gekko’s phrase, “The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” Legitimate that is.

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Ideas Update. 6 Winners 1 Loser. Change Per Idea 8.62%. New Idea Before Weekend.

Here are the names we have recommended and current price with p/l and %.  Five long ideas and Two Shorts. Batting Average 71%, so far. I write this update for a third time.

Expect a new idea before the weekend.

P 12/4 $8.91 $10.95 $2.04 22.89%

AMD 12/10 $2.35 $2.73 $0.38 16.17%

CMG 12/18 $288.01 $293.74 $5.73  1.98%

TASR 12/17 $7.67 $9.33 $1.66 21.64%

NSC 1/4/13 $65.25 $68.41 $3.16  4.84%

Shorts (Negative Means We Are Making Money)

SWHC 12/17 $9.26 $8.90 $-0.36 -3.88%

RGR 12/17 $46.40 $51.54 $5.14  11.07%

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Daily P/Laybook

January 24, 2013

In After Hours Trading

Earnings of note released after the close ALTR -.02 AMGN -.02 AAPL +.26 FFIV -.01 LRCX +.01 LOGI -1.55 MLNX +.03 NFLX +.27 NE -.12 PMTC + 03 SNDK +.30 TER +.06 URI +.26 WDC +.28. Secondary Offerings announced ARIA BPL MCP due this morning ARCP ARIAD BPL KBH . IPO and Secondary information due courtesy of IPO Financial for their ranks we would direct you to: http://www.ipofinancial.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -3.00, DJI +6, NDX -35.50 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe mixed. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude higher & Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, loweer vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0095. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close MSFT T SBUX ED JNPR MXIM KLAC RMD MXIM RHI FLEX CVD MCRS CPHD CRUS and due tomorrow morning PG HON HAL KMB COV AEP WY LM OSK IMGN.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AOS +.12 ARG -.04 ALK -.02 ABC +.02 BMY +.04 CSH +.09 DOV +.02 NOK +.01 QSII -.03 LUV +.01 TDY +.09UNP +.03 UAL +2.11.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1421 stocks rise and 1546 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1039 rise and 1419 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

December Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to 0.4% from -0.2%. Weekly Jobless Claims due at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Conference & Analyst Meetings

CIBC 16th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Confernce.

Conference of Note

World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs GOL
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch GOLD ASML
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard NFLX
Barclays
Jefferies
Dahlman Rose
Bernstein
KeyBanc
Stifel Nicolaus
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Needham SNDK
Sun Trust RH TMK PRI

Comments »

Daily P/Laybook

January 23, 2013

In After Hours Trading

Earnings of note released after the close AMD +.05 ALB +.16 CA +.02 CLS +.06 CPWR +.02 CREE +.02 CSX +.04 ETH +.01 GOOG +.09 IBM +.14 IGT +.04 ISRG +.23 NSC +.10 TXN +.02 UMBF -.14. Secondary Offerings announced NMRX SNH IVR DM KBH with IVR NMRX SNH due this morning. IPO and Secondary information due courtesy of IPO Financial for their ranks we would direct you to: http://www.ipofinancial.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -2.00, DJI -2, NDX +1.25 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe mixed. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude & Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.007. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close AAPL AMGN SYK CCI SYMC SNDK WDC ALTR NE VAR FFIV LRCX BKW JEC RJF NFLX URI and due tomorrow morning MMM UNP BMY CELG BAX LMT PCP RTN ETN NOK GWW SWK DOV ABC AME XRX EQT MKC.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ABT +.01 APD +.01 ATI +.03 BHI +.01 CHKP +.03 COH -.06 MOLX +.01 MSI +.08 NVS -.04 PX +.01 DGX -.05 SAP -.10 STJ +.01 TXT -.02 UTX +.01 WLP +.08.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2084 stocks rise and 926 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1538 rise and 925 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

The Bank of England releases its latest minutes before the market opens. Rate decision due from the Bank of Canada as well.

Politico

House to vote on debt ceiling extension.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

CIBC 16th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Confernce. Analyst meetings of note QCOM FFIV CTIC.

Conference of Note

World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley INCY
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup STR NVS
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS FIS
Lazard N
Merrill Lynch
Jefferies HRG
Dahlman Rose ANR WLT
Bernstein FTE
KeyBanc PAG GPI

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