iBankCoin
Joined Dec 4, 2012
319 Blog Posts

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

ABM (+.04) APP (+.06) ASNA (+.03) CWST (+.08) DCO (-.10) GSS (+.02) QUAD (-.53) SNTS (+.07) SNHY (+.03) TCRD (+.02). Secondaries announced FR DFRG TRLA WPZ WCRX MRC JCP UBNT JAZZ KAR BNNY. Pricings for today FR JAZZ JCP UBNT WCRX WPZ. One IPO on deck for today Professional Diversity Network (IPDN). Listings courtesy of IPO Financial Network (www.ipofinancial.com)

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +3.75, Dow Jones +30, NDX +11.75 with fair value a bit lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0223. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close ASNA ABM QUAD SHFL SNTS TUMI. Due tomorrow morning BNS KRO HEES RIGL BKR OXF.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

HEES (+.01) RIGL (+.02).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1661 stocks rise and 1308 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1321 rise and 1135 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now BACK TO POSITIVE so our buy has not been concluded yet. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last week which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with factory orders, Q4 productivity, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate as well as the ADP Jobs Report and the Challenger Gray & Christmas Jobs Cut Report. All data is Wednesday onward.

Politico

The Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA) did not raise interest rates. Brazil Central Bank will announce any changes to its rate policy at 10:00 a.m. EST. Federal Reserve Bank Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings XLNX TDC. Raymond James Conference, Deutsche Bank Media & Telecom Conference, Cowen Health Care Conference, Morgan Stanley Asia Technology, Media, Telcoms and Internet Conference, Deutsche Bank Access Consumer Retail Gaming & Lodging Conference and Citigroup Global Property Conference.

Conference of Note

American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting.

M & A News

KKR likely to bid today for Gardner Denver (GDI)

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup ZFC  
Merrill Lynch HIIQ  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse EVEP ZFC  
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Piper Jaffray    
Jefferies AEGR SUPN ANTH DYAX  
Raymond James    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Cantor Fitzgerald YHOO  
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham SSYS KBOP  

Comments »

Will Take The Other Side Of The China Trade: Short FXI

I believe the China trade is actually a great short over the next month. We will use FXI to short at the current price of $37.71. The chart tells the tale and that is my catalyst not the 60 Minutes story BUT that does add some wind to my back. It does not make senses to fight the chart and it is an ugly one.

fxi

The yellow band above is the Weekly DMA Channel that sets a negative weekly bias. Next the setup indicator is an impending breakdown of the Weekly Erlanger Crossover Spread. Last my trigger is a negative daily Erlanger Volume Swing on a medium basis. If the EVS turns above 0, then I would cover the short. For information on Erlanger Chart Room go to http://www.goodmorningwallst.com.

There are a couple catalysts that could help China (FXI) and those include potential rate cuts from the RBA and ECB. We view that as unlikely as they both need to save their firepower for a better time.

 

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower Lots Of Key Data Points Today & After The Close

In After Hours TradingNegative story on 60 Minutes about Chinese real estate hits those markets hard this morning.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -1.05, Dow Jones -17, NDX -6.25 with fair value a bit lower) Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0094. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close ASNA ABM QUAD SHFL SNTS TUMI. Due tomorrow morning BNS KRO HEES RIGL BKR OXF.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ARNA (-.05) BYD (-.18) CEL (+.30) SSYS (+.02) TECD (-.28).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1664 stocks rise and 1305 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1393 rise and 1051 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but our buy has not been concluded yet. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last week which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Bank Stress Tests due out after the close and will impact a myriad of bank shares.

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with factory orders, Q4 productivity, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate as well as the ADP Jobs Report and the Challenger Gray & Christmas Jobs Cut Report.

Politico

President Obama spent the weekend canvassing both parties to get votes for changes to Sequester. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Yellen speaks at 8:00 a.m. EST. Eurozone Finance Ministers meet to discuss the current state of the economy while the G-20 meets ahead of an April IMF Meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce any changes to its interest rate policy before the market opens Tuesday.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings D. Raymond James Conference, Deutsche Bank Media & Telecom Conference, Cowen Health Care Conference, Morgan Stanley Asia Technology, Media, Telcoms and Internet Conference and Citigroup Global Property Conference.

Conference of Note

American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan TEF  
Goldman Sachs CLD LHO
Morgan Stanley FTE  
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch MRK PNK RJET
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Piper Jaffray ONCY  
Jefferies    
Raymond James    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Cantor Fitzgerald    
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham MDVN  

Comments »

Throwing My Hat In The Ring To Move Out Of The Blogger Network

Per The Fly’s comments, I am throwing my hat in the ring to move from the Blogger Network to an Interim Blogger. We started blogging here in November at the tail end of the elections and started to gain traffic but it was too late.

Here is why you should vote for me (and my fellow researchers that we work with)

1. Systematic process.

2. Use quantitative tools and lots of reading to avoid being a tool.

3. All we do is make people money. (This a play on the older ESPN Boomer comment that all Cris Carter does is catch touchdowns)

4. We have lots of in depth research across multiple spectrums that as time goes on we will make you privy to over the coming months.

 

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Weekly Market Crash Indicators Remain at 50% For A Second Week

As any fyi to our reader base, we post on Twitter as Bullet86. We post about 1-2 posts a day of only valuable insights.

Weekly Crash Indicator

Market Crash Indicators #099  February 28, 2013
Our process has returned 35.25% since inception while the S&P 500 has gained 16.05%. So far this year we are up 3.97%.

As of today we are adding a new component to our process. If we are 100% invested then we own the Ultra S&P 500 Proshares (SSO) which returns 2X the S&P 500, 75% we own the S&P SDRS Unit Trust (SPY), 50% invested S&P Powershares Low Volatility(SPLV), Cash is Cash and 100% short we own the S&P Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares (SDS) which returns 2X the downside of the S&P 500. This week we own SPLV.

Market crash/correction indicators remain at DEFCON 3 50% invested Our DEFCON ratings are from 1 to 5 with five being the most severe.

The Madison Letter remains in cash this morning as our scores moved into the red a week ago. Overall Madison signals have returned 45.73%  while the S&P 500 has returned  6.61% since 4/2/2007 through yesterday’s close for outperformance of  39.12% since 4/2/07.

[Image 1]

Next the Erlanger Big Barf Indicator moves to -1.59 from -0.43 on a daily basis. We note the daily has moved below 0 which is a confirmed sell signal. The Weekly EBB remains above zero as does the Monthly Indicator.

The EBB is only available in Erlanger Chart Room but we report on it once a week in this column. If you want to see it daily or intraday, which is killer, then we suggest signing up for Erlanger Chart Room where you will never look at a chart the same.

[Image 2]

Next,the proprietary advance/decline measure for NYSE/NASDAQ stocks remains a buy on the market but barely. Since inception this signal is up 109.64% while the S&P 500 is up 117.52% since 3/2/2009 for underperformance of  -7.89% on an  absolute basis. This indicator is either buy or sell. Sell signals have generated positive returns in addition to our buy signals. This morning we show cumulative returns.

[Image 3]

Simon Economics Greed & Fear Index (GFI) moves from 100 to 96 this past week, as we now are in “el feugo” mode.

[Image 4]

Last, our Weekly Chart on the 50 Day moving average slope of the S&P 500 remains positive for an eighth week in a row.

[Image 5]

We added a sixth indicator this summer that is a measure of risk and it is extremely proprietary and will remain as a black box indicator. It remains underweight beta.

What is interesting about these various market crash/correction indicators is they are independent of each other and use different methods but all arrived at similar conclusions at or around the September lows. These indicators also will allow some give and not provide a ton of false signals. The bottomline is these indicators will capture drops of 5% or more on a very consistent basis.

We have assigned a percentage of the portfolio that is invested based on our DEFCON indicators. We have been publishing this in Superstock investor and will add to here. A rating of DEFCON 1 equals 100% invested. DEFCON 2 equals 75% invested. DEFCON 3 equals 50% invested. DEFCON 4 equals cash. DECON 5 equals 100% short.

[Image 6]

[Image 7]

[Image 8]

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

AIRM (+.11) DECK (+.15) GPS (+.02) (+.01) MTZ (+.01) MDR (-.06) OVTI (+.15) PANW (+.01) CRM (+.11) SD (+.06) TESO (+.12). Secondaries announced . Due out today .

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -8.25, Dow Jones -60, NDX -13 with fair value a bit lower) Asia ex Shanghai and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0275. Prices as of 7:35 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

No earnings due after the close. It’s Miller Time have a good weekend.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

FWLT(-0.19) NWN (-.05).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1528 stocks rise and 1453 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1201 rise and 1247 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but our buy has not been concluded yet. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last week which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

January Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to -2.1% versus 2.6%. Then at 10:00 a.m. EST January Construction Spending is due out and expected to fall to 0.4% versus 0.9%. Also, at the same time ISM Manufacturing is due out at expected to fall to 52.5 from 53.10.

 

March car and truck sales due at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Politico

President Obama meets with Congressional leaders as the Sequester kicks into gear at 8:00 a.m. EST. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks tonight on low long term interest rates

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings BPOP KEYW. Simmons Energy Conference and Lazard Med Tech & Life Sciences Tools Snowbird Conference.

Conference of Note

American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs DB
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard PCLN
Credit Agricole
Jefferies ADSK
Raymond James
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey
Cantor Fitzgerald ISRG SLXP

Comments »

What The #%@ Just Happend at 11:00 a.m. EST???

Plan to trade and trade the plan. If your do not understand what events can move the market each day, then you have no right to be trading. Too often the market makes a big move on certain data or announcement being made.

Each day you MUST track what events are going to move the markets. As an example Deckers (DECK) will report earnings after the close. If you owned it, then you have a decision to make about whether to stick it through the earnings release or punt.

Luckily, we have been publishing our Daily P/Laybook here for The Fly’s viewership because we seek to inform the masses. So what is due today at 11:00 a.m.? Go read today’s Daily P/Laybook.

 

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher Before Economic Data Due

In After Hours Trading

CBI (+.08) JCP (-1.78) LTD (+.02) MYL (+.01) MNST (-.02). Secondaries announced CCG DFRG NEO CWH TSRO TRS AGNC DPM MPW. Due out today CWH NEO TSRO.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +2.00, Dow Jones +10, NDX +5.00 with fair value a bit lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper higher and gold lower with WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0241. Prices as of 7:35 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close CRM GPS UHS DRC PANW SPLK ENDP BID DECK PDLI and tomorrow MGA FWLT SUP AMRC before the open TD among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CHS (IN LINE) KSS (+.03) TD (+.07) WNR (+.10) JOY (+.17) STWD (+.06) TGT (IN LINE).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2303 stocks rise and 702 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1648 rise and 809 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but our buy has not been concluded yet. We just moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last week which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Q4 GDP is released at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to 0.5% from the first release of -0.1%. Weekly Jobless Claims due out at the same time. Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. EST with Kansas City Fed Regional Manufacturing Survey at 11:00 a.m. EST.

Politico

Thursday sees several Federal Reserve officials speak at the Atlanta Federal Reserve banking forum. The Sequester Deadline hits at midnight.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings DUK STT VOLVY HBI WLP . Morgan Stanley Tech, Media & Telecom Conference, Simmons Energy Conference and Lazard Med Tech & Life Sciences Tools Snowbird Conference.

Conference of Note

The Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs INXN  
Morgan Stanley   SKS
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup AXLL  
Merrill Lynch   GRPN
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard SGMO  
Credit Agricole    
Jefferies    
Raymond James   GRPN

Comments »

Daily P/Laybook Futures Up But So Is Fair Value = Flat Open

In After Hours TradingAWK (-.01) AVGO (+.05) FSLR (+.30) PZZA (-.02) PCLN (+.27) RRC(+.18)

 

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +3.75, Dow Jones +34, NDX +6.80 with fair value higher) Asia MIXED and Europe HIGHERer. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0206. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close and CLR LTD NYL MNST PLL MWE WES CBI JCP tomorrow before the open TD VRX SDRL KSS BBY SHLD RDC CVC CHS DPZ among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AES (+.01) CRI (+.04) DLTR (+.02) JOY (+.17) STWD (+.06) TGT (IN LINE).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1981 stocks rise and 997 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1487 rise and 968 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but our buy has not been concluded yet. We just moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last week which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

January Durable Goods is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at-4.0% against 4.3%. Weekly Mortgage Applications and Crude Inventories are due out at 7:00 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.

Politico

Federal Reserve Dallas President Fisher will speak in New York on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testifies before Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings ECL CR CSTR AAPL. Morgan Stanley Tech, Media & Telecom Conference, JP Morgan Global High Yield & Leverage Finance Conference, RBC Global Healthcare Conference and Citi Global Healthcare Conference.

Conference of Note

The Mobile World Congress runs through Thursday in Barcelona.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs   GTI
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup BMO  
Merrill Lynch LNC GOOG HXM FSLR
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Credit Agricole    
Jefferies    
Raymond James    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey EIX  

Comments »

Daily P/Laybook

In After Hours Trading

ADSK (+.04) CHUY (+.01) MELI (+.08) MR (+.12) URS (-.01) VVUS (-.12)

 

Secondaries filed after the close CWH. IPOs up this morning BIT and secondaries to be priced EEQ AWAY.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +4.25, Dow Jones +36, NDX +5.20 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe lower. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0085. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close and PCLN VNO EIX RRC VRSK AVGO AWK SPN BIO JAXX FSLR TIVO PZZA DWA tomorrow before the open TGT TJX DLTR CNP AES JOY NRG LAMR CRI ITT FIG MHR among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AZO (+.08) BMO (+.06) HD (+.03) RSH (-.58) RRD (+.06) SHOO (+.02).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 675 stocks rise and 2376 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 464 rise and 2039 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but our buy has not been concluded yet. We just moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator last week which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

February Consumer Confidence is released at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 60.50 versus 58.6. At the same time, January New Home Sales are released and are expected to improve to 380,000 versus 369,000.

Politico

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke begins two days of Humphrey Hawkins testimony before the House and Senate.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings JPM DLPH. Morgan Stanley Tech, Media & Telecom Conference, JP Morgan Global High Yield & Leverage Finance Conference, RBC Global Healthcare Conference, Goldman Sachs Agribusiness Conference and Citi Global Healthcare Conference.

Conference of Note

The Mobile World Congress runs through Thursday in Barcelona.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup TPH
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Credit Agricole LO
Jefferies IP

Comments »