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$RL Firing Is An Opportunity

The announcement that the Ralph Lauren (RL) Stefan Larsson is leaving the company is good news as far as I am concerned. This creates a potentially tremendous buying opportunity. Can you say multi year low.

One of my friends used to be at RL and left years ago but keeps up with the company. Apparently, Larsson rubbed lots of people wrong. This friend in December told me that Larsson needed to go.  Great call.

In fact, Larsson fired lots of people since coming in and was an arrogant fuck. Ralph Lauren who remains the Executive Chairman wanted to fire him a long time ago.

However, Lauren was afraid the board would not go along. Looks like he got over it. The stock hit a low on the weekly chart of $82.15 in February of last year. This is down from a peak of $185.

I may add this to my recommended positions, currently QCOM long and SAVE short. Let’s see how it trades today. This could be a great stock to buy and add a put to limit the downside risk.

P.S. For the record, I am long this name in our Morning Matters Stock Portfolio.

Comments »

Morning Briefing Futures Back Down

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck 8 IPOs this week. Secondaries On Deck CVEO FBP SND.

In After Hours Trading: ALL +.57 AMP +.04 CBT +.14 EW +.03 FB +.10 MTW -.08 QRVO +.10 SYMC +.04 UNM +.03.

Lower Guidance: QRVO.

Mixed Guidance: AAPL.

Positive Guidance: X.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -5.00, Dow Jones -43, NDX -12.75 and Russell 2000 -4.70. Asia lower and Europe higher ex Germany with several Asian markets still closed. China reopens overnight.

Copper lower but silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.46% yield, one month change +2 and +62 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Consumer Goods, Healthcare and Conglomerates.

Weak Sectors Utilities, Technology and Industrials.

One month winners All ex Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): AMZN V AMGN HIG ESS MSI CMG CSC among the leaders.

Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): HMC PSX LYB WY HSY CLX PSXP AN among the leaders.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Trump diplomacy is an oxymoron. Dollar falls on the Federal Reserve announcement. Border tax reviewed and the outcome could be awful. Russia near the end of its recession. Self driving cars are getting really good.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): AZN +.03 BLL +.03 CRS +.10 CI +.13 COP +.17 PH +.52 SNA +.05 VLP +.06.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1389 stocks rise and 1511 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1431 rise and 1424 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

Challenger, Gray & Christmas Monthly Job Cuts are due out at 7:30 a.m. EST; last month they rose 42.2%.

Q4 Productivity is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.9% from 3.1%

Politico

The Bank of England (BOE) is out with its latest interest rate decision and left rates unchanged.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, FTNT SCHW MU COL HOG VOD.

Conference of Note

DistribuTECH 2017

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs URBN JWN
Morgan Stanley RIG
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup CE
Merrill Lynch X
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
CLSA
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham SLAB
Raymond James
Buckingham
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim
Stifel TSS ROYT

Comments »

Morning Briefing Futures Up For The First Time This Week

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck 8 IPOs this week. Secondaries On Deck FHB MCRN SGYP SN UNVR.

In After Hours Trading: AAPL +.14 BBOX -.06 BXP+.05 CB +.31 EA +.16 OCLR +.03 PLT -.03 X +.29 VIAB +.03.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: AAPL.

Positive Guidance: X.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +5.25, Dow Jones +43, NDX +27.75 and Russell 2000 +5.90. Asia and Europe higher with several Asian markets still closed.

Copper lower but silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.47% yield, one month change +3 and +52 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors None.

Weak Sectors All.

One month winners All ex Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): FB MET NXPI ALL AVB EW AMP SYMC LNC HOLX among the leaders.

Due Thurssday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): MRK PM AZN COP CME BCE BDX SNE CI among the leaders.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Federal Reserve out later today with 1 of 94 economists expecting a rate increase. China PMI can in better than expected. Overseas markets recovered. The Dollar is rebounding after yesterday’s selling. Bridgewater made clients $4.9 billion while Paulson and Soros struggle.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): ANTM +.09 ADP +.06 AVY +.06 D -.02 ENR +.28 IR -.08 ITG +.07 MPC +.11 SLAB +.10 USG +.07.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: MO SPR.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: AVY.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1856 stocks rise and 1057 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1763 rise and 1112 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

ADP Payroll for January is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 165,000 from 153,000.

December Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.30% from 0.91%.

January ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 55 from 54.70.

Monthly Truck and Car Sales are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST. The only short squeeze of note in this space is Tesla Motors (TSLA).

Politico

The first Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision of 2017 is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, MNKD F SATS DISH.

Conference of Note

DistribuTECH 2017

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley KMX
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch AMGN
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse NCMI RGC
Banc of America
UBS
CLSA
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies BIVV
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James LEG HBMD

Comments »

Morning Briefing Lots On The Plate

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck 8 IPOs this week. Secondaries On Deck NRZ.

In After Hours Trading: AEIS +.25 CR +.04 GGG+.14 PKG +.07 PFG +.12 RGA +.39 SANM +.08 WERN +.04.

Lower Guidance: PKG.

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: AEIS SANM.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -3, Dow Jones -27, NDX -8.25 and Russell 2000 -1.70. Asia lower and Europe mixed.

Copper, silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures mixed. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.47% yield, one month change +2 and +55 one year change. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors None.

Weak Sectors All.

One month winners All ex Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): AAPL CB APC AFL EA ILMN EQR BXP CE CHRW AMD FBHS among the leaders.

Due Wednesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): MO D ADP ANTM BAX MPC PPL IR WEC MPLX AVY USG among the leaders.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and left inflation forecast intact. Inflation popped in Europe to 1.8% increase. Deutsche Bank (DB) fined $629M in fines. Warren Buffet bought $12 billion of stock since the election.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): AET +.19 ABC +.13 AXE +.15 DHR +.02 LLY -.03 HOG -.04 HUBB +.13 MAN +.16 PCAR -.05 SNG +.29 DF +.03 UAA -.02 VLO +.03 WDR +.04 ZBH +.03.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: AET UAA.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 887 stocks rise and 2082 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 682 rise and 2220 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

The S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index for November is due out at 9:00 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 5.0% from 5.1%.

January Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 55.5 million from 54.6.

January Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 113 from 113.70.

Politico

President Trump will meet with Pharmaceutical leaders today. Backlash related to immigration continues.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission will hold a joint meeting in Frankfurt.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two day meeting that concludes on Wednesday with an interest rate announcement.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left rates unchanged.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, NAVB SM. Noble Capital Small Cap & Emerging Growth Investor Conference.

Conference of Note

DistribuTECH 2017

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup SHOO FIT
Merrill Lynch TEVA NNNCBOE
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
CLSA BWLD
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James
Buckingham
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim
Stifel QTS
Robert W. Baird

Comments »

The Week Ahead Has Tons Of Data Points And Central Bank Action

1. Geopolitical Events. On Tuesday the FOMC begins a two day meeting. Also on Tuesday a joint ECB and European Commission meeting will meet and a Bank of Japan Rate decision is due. On Thursday the BOE will release its latest interest rate decision. On Friday EU Heads of State will meet. Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak on Friday to finish out the week.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and personal income, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, construction spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Q4 Productivity, nonfarm payrolls with the unemployment rate and factory orders.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include EPD GGP AAPL XOM FB MO AMZN V HMC PSX.

Monday, January 30:

December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0%.

Markets are closed in China for the Lunar New Year. South Korea, Taiwan and several other Asian countries are closed for trading as well. China is closed until Friday.

Tuesday, January 31:

The Bank of Japan rate decision is due.

The S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index for November is due out at 9:00 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 5.0% from 5.1%.

January Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 55.5 million from 54.6.

January Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 113 from 113.70.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission will hold a joint meeting in Frankfurt.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two day meeting that concludes on Wednesday with an interest rate announcement.

Wednesday, February 1:

ADP Payroll for January is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 165,000 from 153,000.

December Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.30% from 0.91%.

January ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 55 from 54.70.

The first Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision of 2017 is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Monthly Truck and Car Sales are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST. The only short squeeze of note in this space is Tesla Motors (TSLA).

Thursday, February 2:

Challenger, Gray & Christmas Monthly Job Cuts are due out at 7:30 a.m. EST; last month they rose 42.2%.

The Bank of England (BOE) is out with its latest interest rate decision before markets open.

Q4 Productivity is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.9% from 3.1%

Friday, February 3:

January Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to 175,000 from 156,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7%.

December Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 1.4% from -2.4%.

European Union Heads of State meet.

Comments »

Morning Briefing Earnings Fast & Furious Now $SPY

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck AnaptsyBio (ANAB) and ObsEva SA (OBSV). Secondaries On Deck AGI ENTL KINS KRNT SVA USFD.

In After Hours Trading: BCG +.07 CTXS +.12 FFIV +.05 LRCX +.05 LVS -.04 MAT -.19 MCK -.04 RJF +.06 URI +.37 VRTX +.06 WDC +.18 XLNX +.03.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +0.25, Dow Jones +18, NDX +9.25 and Russell 2000 +0.20. Asia higher and Europe higher.

Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.54% yield, one month change +0 and +55 one year change. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors All except for Conglomerates.

Weak Sectors Conglomerates.

One month winners All ex COnglomerates.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): GOOGL MSFT INTC SBIX VMW BCR KLAC MXIM EMN JNPR ETFC among others.

Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): CVX ABBV HOM CL NEE GD APD AAL BEN among the leaders.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: U.K. grew om Q4 at 0.6% better than expected due to Brexit. Bond yields are back above 2.50%. Does Dow 20,000 mean time to sell?

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BIIB +.08 CAT +.16 CMCSA +.02 DOW +.11 ERIC -.26 FCAI -.05 F -.02 LLL+.29 MJN -.03 NOC +.47 OSK +.14 PHM +.08 LUV +.06 SWK +.03TROW +.17 WHR -.07.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1909 stocks rise and 1045 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1988 rise and 840 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

December Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 0.5% from 0%.

December New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 588,000 from 592,000.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

President Trump will travel to Philadelphia to meet with Republicans in an off site meeting.

Eurogroup meets in Brussels.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, URI . CIBC Whistler Institutional Investor Conference.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Johnsonm & Johnson (JNJ) to buy Swiss held Actelion (ALIOY) for $280 per share.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup IP LNC CNDT RGA UNM VOYA AMP
Merrill Lynch SGMS IGT
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura PKX
Needham
Raymond James
Buckingham
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim
Stifel MTOR

Comments »

Morning Briefing Dow 20,000 Today? Bears Back To Hibernation $SPY $DIA

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck FWONK MIK MRDN NEWT PTEN SMBK SND.

In After Hours Trading: AA -.10 CA +.02 CNI +.02 COF -.14 CREE +.07 ISRG +.10 LOGI +.12 STX +.24 TXN +.09 UMBF +.06.

Lower Guidance: CA.

Mixed Guidance: CREE TXN TSS.

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +8.25, Dow Jones +80, NDX +24.75 and Russell 2000 +7.20. Asia higher and Europe higher.

Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.43% yield, one month change +3 and +38 one year change. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors All except Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Healthcare.

One month winners All ex Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): T QCOM LVS MCK EBAY CCI WDC VRTX LRCX XLNX CTXS NOW SLG RJF among others.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): CMCSA CELG BMY DOW BIIB CAT F RTN NOC BX PX among the leaders.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: German business sentiment fell which was unexpected. Overseas markets higher despite the weakness. Brexit gets more complicated. Yen can rally to 100 as Trump Rally ends.

NY Times: Mexico’s weapons to fight reversal of NAFTA. Trump injects risk to China relationship. Netflix (NFLX) and CBS try to shake up reality TV. India’s cash shortage begins to hit as poor going hungry and unemployment rising.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BA +.14 GWW +.09 HES +.07 ITW +.02 NSC +.06 ROK +.30 STT +.16 TXT -.07 .

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: JNJ DD.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: LMT PII.

Positive Guidance: SAP IIVI BABA.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2190 stocks rise and 768 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2050 rise and 804 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

Weekly Crude Inventories due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Overnight China Industrial Profits due out at 8:30 p.m. EST.

Politico

President Trump deals with immigration today. See Articles That Matter.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, MENT BP BOBE PAA. CIBC Whistler Institutional Investor Conference.

Conference of Note

Society of Petroleum Engineers Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference.

M & A News

Cisco (CSCO) to buy privately held AppDynamics for $3.7 billion in cash.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan JBLU
Goldman Sachs LSGOF HCP
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup AA PSXP CONE
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS AJMPF
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James SFNC
Buckingham
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim GOGO ENT
Stifel STAY
Robert W. Baird
Cowen
Sun Trust RH
MKM
Sandler O’Neil PNFP

Comments »

Morning Briefing Trumps Meets With Auto Execs $F $GM $FCAU

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck none of note.

In After Hours Trading: JJSF +.09 MRCY +.05 RMD +.03 YHOO +.04 ZION +.08.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: MRCY .

Positive Guidance: IBM AXP.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -0.50, Dow Jones +4, NDX +3.50 and Russell 2000 +0.10. Asia higher ex Japan and Europe higher.

Copper, silver and gold mixed. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.43% yield, one month change +3 and +38 one year change. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors Technology and Consumer Goods.

Weak Sectors Industrial Goods. Healthcare and Utilities.

One month winners All ex COnglomerates.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): TXN CNI SYK COF DFS ISRG CA STX TSS STLD AA LOGI CREE.

Due Wednesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): NVS BA UTX ABT ITW NSC STT PGR APH FCX ROK HES GWW TXT among the leaders.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Futures Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin warned of too strong a dollar and the pullback from TPP adds to recent weakness. Talk begins about the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. Hedge fund assets passed $3 trillion dollars. Bitcoin trading falls in China after fees raised.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BABA +.17 ATI +.08 GLW +.06 DHI +.07 DD +.09 FITB +.04 IIVI +.23 JNJ +.02 KMB +.04 LMT +.21 PHG +.05 PII -.20 SAP +.11 TRV +.39 VZ -.03 WAR +.08.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: JNJ DD.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: LMT PII.

Positive Guidance: SAP IIVI BABA.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1591 stocks rise and 1328 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1173 rise and 1668 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

December Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 5.50 million from 5.61 million.

Politico

President Trump meets with the leaders of Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) this morning for breakfast.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, SFNC.

Conference of Note

Society of Petroleum Engineers Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs FTI
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup OMAB
Merrill Lynch TV DATA ALSN
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James KBH
Buckingham
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim
Stifel HRC

Comments »

Ramp Capital Is Back In Business $SPY $IWM $DIA

I was updating a spreadsheet that tracks intraday action. One of the items is tracking the hour by hour moves on the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell.  Something sticks out like Donald Trump at a Hillary Clinton Rally. What is it?

Ramp Capital is back in business.

Guess who just got back today?
Them wild-eyed boys that had been away
Haven’t changed, haven’t much to say
But man, I still think them cats are great

They were asking if you were around
How you was, where you could be found
I told them you were living downtown
Driving all the old men crazy

The boys are back in town

The best trading hour of the day is 3:00-4:00 and last week traded up every day on all three indexes, 100% of the time. Year to date the percentage is 72%. The next best hour is 10:00-11:00 at 51%.

Rally today for a fifth straight day from 3:00-4:00?

evl1

Comments »

Back Up The Truck On Qualcomm ($QCOM)

Last week the FTC came after Qualcomm (QCOM) right before President Obama departed. Coincidence? No way.

Then today Apple (AAPL) files suit against Qualcomm. I will take the opportunity to recommend Qualcomm (QCOM) here. This is positioning by Tim Cook for a settlement. Tim Cook is a “nasty man”.

To protect the position, we will buy the February $55 Put which costs $2.27 or $227. If you buy less than 100 shares, then still buy the put. If you own more than 100 shares, buy one put for each 100 shares you purchase.

Qualcomm’s  reaction is swift and fierce. They think this is bogus. This is the second stock this year I have recommended after last week’s short on Spirit Airlines (SAVE). We will start updating our recommendation each Thursday in a portfolio review.

Unlike others across the finance blogoshpere, once I recommend a name I stick with the recommendation.

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