On April 1st, we recommended $CMG as a short here. The price was $465.15. It is now at $441.82 and has fallen from a peak of $447.27. So does the market know that a miss is coming?
Meanwhile, there have been 12,198 calls trading to 6,735 puts. Usually on earning one sees calls and puts pretty even. This is not even.
Our earnings momentum model from Options Research & Technology (ORATS) predicts that the stock will move by $19.44. So it could move up to roughly $464 or go to $424.
The company guided lower in March and the stock has fallen. As such, any news that is not awful could see a rebound. So the $64,000 question is “Should I stay or should I go”.
We are going to move to the sidelines and return sometime post earnings. For now we are out. Cover shares here for a nice gain. More after the close.
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