Joined Dec 4, 2012
319 Blog Posts

Early Failure Of The 50% Retracement On SPY From November High to January Low

This morning $SPY had a gap open. It has moved lower since that open. Not a big deal for me, or Bobby Axelrod, as the 9:30 o 10:00 and 10:00 to 11:00 have struggled all week. The real time to get long is 11:00 a.m. and the only other weak period this week has been 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. EST.

The more important thing about this morning is $SPY opened above its 50% retracement from the November high to the January low, $196.34. Currently, SPY is at $195.77. Once, $SPY moves back above the 50% retracement the next level is $199.96 which is the 61.80% retracement.

Our overbought/oversold indicator is now at 69. Key is it staying above 50 for those long. The ability to move and stay above 70 would be our first period of “good overbought” in 2016. During the run in October, $SPY was able to stay above 70 for most of the move.

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