Joined Dec 4, 2012
319 Blog Posts

Weekly Market Timing Model Remains 75% Invested. Up 33.68% versus 14.14% on S&P 500

Weekly Crash Indicator

Market Crash Indicators #093  January 18, 2013
Our process has returned 33.68% since inception while the S&P 500 has gained 14.14%. So far this year we are up 2.40%.

Market crash/correction indicators remain at DEFCON 2 75% invested.  Our DEFCON ratings are from 1 to 5 with five being the most severe.

The Madison Letter remains a buy this morning. Overall Madison signals have returned 43.64%  while the S&P 500 has returned  4.23% since 4/2/2007 through yesterday’s close for outperformance of  39.41% since 4/2/07.

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Next the Erlanger Big Barf Indicator moves to 9.90 from 6.26 on a daily basis. We note the daily has remained below 0 which is a confirmed sell signal. The Weekly EBB remains above zero while the Monthly Indicator is positive. The EBB is only available in Erlanger Chart Room but we report on it once a week in this column. If you want to see it daily or intraday, which is killer, then we suggest signing up for Erlanger Chart Room where you will never look at a chart the same.

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Next,the proprietary advance/decline measure for NYSE/NASDAQ stocks is now a buy on the market. Since inception this signal is up 107.24% while the S&P 500 is up 112.68% since 3/2/2009 for underperformance of  -5.44% on an  absolute basis. This indicator is either buy or sell. Sell signals have generated positive returns in addition to our buy signals. This morning we show cumulative returns.

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Simon Economics Greed & Fear Index (GFI) remains stuck at 79 this past week, as we now have a buying opportunity as above 20.

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Last, our Weekly Chart on the 50 Day moving average slope of the S&P 500 remains positive for a second week in a row.

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We added a sixth indicator this summer that is a measure of risk and it is extremely proprietary and will remain as a black box indicator. It remains overweight beta.

What is interesting about these various market crash/correction indicators is they are independent of each other and use different methods but all arrived at similar conclusions at or around the September lows. These indicators also will allow some give and not provide a ton of false signals. The bottomline is these indicators will capture drops of 5% or more on a very consistent basis.

We have assigned a percentage of the portfolio that is invested based on our DEFCON indicators. We have been publishing this in Superstock investor and will add to here. A rating of DEFCON 1 equals 100% invested. DEFCON 2 equals 75% invested. DEFCON 3 equals 50% invested. DEFCON 4 equals cash. DECON 5 equals 100% short.

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