18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,993 Blog Posts

The Last Time Interest Rates Were Going to Be the End of Times — Stocks Surged

Yield fags need to be stopped, once and for all. I don’t know about you, but I am sick and tired of these people shitting on my parade — bringing their problem to the table and crying about it like little bitches. If you’re employed on a fixed income desk, listen to me now: go fuck yourself.

As the 10yr treasury approaches 3%, the first time since the Taper Tantrum crisis of 2013, bond nerds are out in full force proclaiming it to be the end of the bull market. Last time yields cocksized up against the 3% mark, stocks fucking raged higher with retard strength. Hell, 2013 was the best year of all time. We made so much money in stocks that year, Le Fly was lighting cigars with bank notes.

Here’s the top story on CNBC now, warning people of dark times because MUH 3% was going to convince people to ditch their stocks in favor of fucking bonds.

“I think there’s still a lot to go,” the firm’s chief investment officer said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “[The] 10-Year Treasury yield has been below fair value for nearly ten years thanks in large part to central bank bond purchasing that’s been going on.”

His thoughts came as the 10-Year yield, which moves inversely to debt prices, made another run to 3 percent. On Friday, the benchmark rate hit its highest level in more than 4 years.

“If you take a look long-term, where the 10-Year Treasury typically trades, it matches nominal [economic growth],” Ablin said. “And, the last nominal [growth] number we got in December of last year suggested that the 10-Year Treasury should be about 4.1 [percent] not 2.9,” he added.

Stocks historically become less attractive as yields move higher. In the easy money environment since the financial crisis, low yields created great demand for stocks.

“The fact is that the bond market has been in this tug-o-war for capital for the last ten years with one arm tied behind its back,” Ablin said. “The equity market has essentially been the only child of that relationship.”

With the Federal Reserve normalizing its interest rate policy and the European Central Bank hinting it’ll soon do the same thing, Ablin expects Treasuries to become more attractive.

“We see the 2-Year [Treasury] now nearly at more than 2.4 percent. So, yields are starting to get more attractive on the front end where the Federal Reserve has its influence,” he noted. Shorter-dated yields surged to its highest level since September 2008. In the past year, the yield has surged more than 100 percent.

Ablin, who’s bullish on the 2-Year, said that not even a “fantastic” earnings season will prevent the stock market troubles likely coming down the pike.

“The fact is the European Central Bank has already said they’re likely to end their program in September. So, I think the bond market is starting to sense that, and that’s why we’re seeing rates rise there,” Ablin said.

Now for the facts, via WSJ circa 2013.

Since 1967, during periods when bond yields have risen while confidence has increased (i.e., a “good” yield rise) average annualized stock price returns have been almost 13% and despite rising bond yields, the stock market has only declined about one-third of the time. For comparison, when yields have risen and confidence has declined, the stock market has declined nearly one-half the time and with an average annualized price return of -6.4%.

In short, yields rise when the economy is doing well. When the economy does well, earnings are increasing, which eventually results in higher stock prices. Ignore the bonds geeks and embrace the idea that inflation might be something worth having — as long as it’s under 3%.

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Leaders of Update NY Sex Cult Arrested — Funded By Heiresses of Seagram’s Fortune

This story is a lot of take in and I don’t want to get into the minute details of it here.

The cult leader is a man named Keith Raniere — a poser who lied about his intelligence and credentials — claiming to have the Guinness Book of World Records highest IQ — founder of the sex cult called Nxivm. This story was in fact discussed in detail back in 2003 — yet authorities only bothered to arrest them now in 2018.

Here’s where it gets interesting. This nobody loser started up a company to help motivate people, located in update NY. Two actresses from the former hit teevee show Smallville were roped up in it: Allison Mack and Kristin Kreuk.




The leader, Raniere, called himself “Vanguard”, would get fresh recruits, aka sex slaves, with the help of Allison Mack — who rose to #2 in the organization and was considered a ‘master slave’ who helped starve women on 500 calorie per day diets and also brand them near their vaginas with the initials of Raniere and her own.

Branded into scores of women

During one of Raniere’s motivational speeches, he ran into the heiresses of the Seagram’s fortune, Sara and Clare Bronfman. Needless to say, they hit if off and they soon joined his cult.

Sara and Clare Bronfman

Together, these loons formed a foundation: The Ethical Humanitarian Foundation

Here’s their mission statement.

Historically, the discovery of scientific thinking and logic created improvements in civilization. The enticement of these conveniences caused many influential people to forget the source of this thinking: Humanity.

We believe transforming this thinking throughout the different branches of society; education, business, science and government is vital for the future of our children and future generations.

We believe it is essential for our decision processes to evolve to a humanity first foundation.

It is our hope the effects of such a shift in thinking and process will set a new course for humanity; steering us towards a more noble civilization.

Raniere’s motivational success company, ESP, has offices in Albany, NY, NYC, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Guatemala City, Guadalajara, Vancouver, and Monterrey.


How did this seemingly ordinary fellow manage that? Answer: Seagram’s fortune.

The heiresses tapped into their trust and funded him in the amount of at least $150 million. Here’s where it gets really funny from a Wall Street point of view.

Back in 2007, Keith took a run at the commodity markets, when oil was well over $100 and seemingly going up forever — until it didn’t. He claimed to have developed a super super algorithm that could predict movements in the energy market. He used said algo to buy and sell oil — losing an astounding $65 million in the process.

After taking so many Ls, Raniere blamed the patriarch of the Seagram’s fortune, Edgar Bronfman, father of Clare and Sara, for meddling in his affairs because (get this) he had proof that the holocaust was a giant fiction, the biggest lie of the 20th century.

There’s also the matter of a motherless 3 year old boy living in the Nxivum compound, who was tended to by nannies and being groomed to be the successor for Raniere. What in the actual fuck?

So many questions arise from this story, such as, how the fuck did this loser from upstate NY convince Hollywood stars and heiresses to billions to join his fucking sex cult and finance him to the tune of $150m on retarded trading schemes? Also, who else is involved in this conspiracy? Over the years, Nxivum had a lot of high profile guests, one of which was almost the Dalai Lama.


Lastly, here’s a clip of Allison Mack losing her shit while interviewing Keith. On his Youtube channel, he uploaded a series of self-aggrandizing videos, all complete shit.

BEHOLD the power of mind control. Look at this shit.

Then there’s this young boy on Mack’s instagram account giving a speech, which could not have come from his own words.

And lastly, for rich irony, Mack, a self proclaimed feminist, in between forcing women into a life of sex slavery and starving them on 500 calorie per day diets in order to conform with the body type “The Vanguard” prefers, posted this on her IG.

Feel free to troll her Twitter account for more lovely jewels.

Oh, I almost forgot this small item. She posted a picture John Podesta’s spirit cooking celebrity back in January. Food for thought.

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“The Fly” Was Literally Unfazed By Today’s Drama

I just got back from a 3 hour sojourn in Princeton, sifting through books and vinyl records — adding to my burgeoning collection. Plus, now with spring here and all, my favorite tweed retailer was running a sale. I’d be remiss if I didn’t take advantage of such savings. I see the market is down again, sharply and vigorously. We are getting rocked every other day and the sell offs are demoralizing.

Good news for me, my trading account is unfazed by today’s business. You must be thinking to yourself that I am promoting some sordid brand of fake news. But I assure you, this news is very real indeed.

I preside over you like an alpha lion amongst of pack of injured dickless males. All of the lionesses are mine, to do as I please. You’re the equivalent of a eunuch. Do you know what a eunuch is? Back in the olde days, court jesters would be castrated, in order to prevent said jester from feeling rapish around the noble people he entertained. This was a very agreeable deal for him, running around cockless, but well fed and indeed elegantly dressed with ample coin in his pockets. You’re like that guy, minus all of the good stuff — just a cockless lion on the rocks staring out into the dead grass.

As for me, I shall spend the next few days tending to my garden in freezing as fuck weather. I bought several forsythia bushes and a magnolia tree. Nothing says spring like blossoming yellows and pinks amidst 30 degree climes. Deep down, I hope it snows again and all of the plants are suddenly killed and everyone’s spring planting are killed and the deer run wild and trample over your gardens. These are my innermost thoughts that I rarely reveal.

Now you know.

I traded nothing today — because as you could see by my account pictured above — there is nothing to fix.

Good day.

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There’s Only One Way to Survive a Market Like This — And Life Advice from Dr. Le Fly

Contrary to popular belief, 2018 has been an arduous year for equities. There have been numerous false starts, blow ups, melt ups, and varying spates of nothingness. If you look at the median returns of the individual sectors, it’s rather bewildering. I don’t recognize a common thread or scheme, but something that resembles chaos and randomness.

I think in many respects the market takes its cue from leadership — and at the top of our leadership is the Presidency and all of the people who surround him. Like I said, chaos.

There are a few certainties that you can bank on when trading, one of which is being wrong a lot. The other is having great times, unbelievable trades that often provides a sense of invincibility. At times this success can be deleterious to one’s trading — as it changes the natural character of a person into something filled with hubris. Pride always comes before the fall.

The only way to last in this business is by adhering to a set of rules. A 10% stop, if you believe in such a thing, should be a hard line in the sand. A certain allocation scheme, diversification and holding period, once established, should be followed. Strategies should be analyzed at least once per quarter and adjusted against a benchmark.

Also, if you’re trading aggressively and hold a lot of small capped stocks — quit benchmarking against the SPY. What you’re doing is super risky, so you should be marked against the Russell, Nasdaq, or something else.

For me, I’ve found equanimity in placing the largest part of my money in a quantitative strategy. There’s no emotion involved, only a set of rules that are followed, robotically, and then analyzed for performance. Over the past year, this strategy has crushed the indices, so I am pleased with it. But I knew heading into this sojourn that the degenerate side of me would not be able to sit idle and watch stocks trade without getting involved, so I set aside a small fund for trading.

At 41 years old, I know myself, attributes and limitations, and am honest enough to know what I’m capable of and where I’m lacking. The biggest failures that I know of always came from people doing things they weren’t built to do — getting in over their heads in ventures that proved to be ruinous. When you lie to yourself, stubbornness is a byproduct and this weakness will exacerbate losses.

Are you a trading prodigy, a genius? I don’t know — are you? If you think so, what proof do you have? Is it in your genes — do you have a large net worth? Maybe you’re not a trading prodigy, but that doesn’t mean you can’t build a massive fortune either. I once interviewed a woman who needed investment advice, a secretary, who had a liquid net worth of ~$900,000 — all due to being a disciplined spender and living within her means. I also know people who make $500,000 per annum, but have no money in the bank. All of it is spent on clubs, mortgages, cars, and vacations.

One thing is for certain, the things you want aren’t going to be given to you — so you better have a plan to acquire them and that begins with being mature enough to know what you’re capable of doing — you fucking faggots.

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Reminder: Deutsche Bank is a Retarded Bank

They transferred $35 billion by accident to an account, in what is being called a ‘flub.’

Let this be a renewed reminder that Germany is the most detrimental country in the history of civilization.

A brief rundown.

Franco-Prussian war — seized land from France, conquered Paris, set the stage for France to seek revenge and chimp out in WW1

During WW1, Germany destroyed Europe.

During WW2, Germany destroyed Europe again.

Cold war: East Germans were fucking assholes.

European sovereign debt crisis: Germany nearly sunk the entire world with their nonsense. Thank God for people like this.

And now they’re at it again, attempting to subjugate Europe via the EU and actively flooding the continent with knife wielding migrants who enjoy raping all day long.

The German people are a scourge.

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The President is angered this morning over the very high price of crude. With oil ‘all over the place’, fully loaded on ships, it’s unacceptable for prices to be this high! SAD!

Maybe he should call his boys in Riyadh and ask them to please lower them, since Americans will soon be partaking in toad trips, summering in all of the finest parts of the coast.

More nothing.

Cryptos are running viagra hard this morning. Any interest? No?

This is what I want to leave you with this morning, something to both ponder and to become quizzical over.

Xunlei Limited launched ThunderChain, a blockchain platform

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The Chinese-America trade war doesn’t officially go into effect until mid-May. God willing, there will be negotiations that fail and the tariffs could go right into effect, absolutely fucking all of you morons long Chinese equities.

Just last week, China’s second largest maker of communication equipment, ZTE, was slapped with a 7 year ban from the United States for being an egregious company, currently and now deemed a national security risk.

ZTE sold sanctioned equipment to Iran and for that — fucking banned.

“ZTE made false statements to the U.S. government when they were originally caught and put on the Entity List, made false statements during the reprieve it was given, and made false statements again during its probation,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a written statement. “Instead of reprimanding ZTE staff and senior management, ZTE rewarded them. This egregious behavior cannot be ignored.”

This had an ancillary effect on US optical makers, such as Acacia, who’s shares fucking plunged last week by 30%.

Now China is throwing shade at the proposed $44b merger between Qualcomm and NXP — causing both stocks to Mcplunge lower by ~5%. The possible blowbacks to a true Americana trade war with China will be hardest felt in the semis and the textile industry.

Perhaps you should be making arrangements to exit these shares?

The semis topped in March and are now steamrolling lower.

As per the NY Times, here is the short-term timeline on the looming trade war.

On May 1, exemptions to the tariffs on imported steel and aluminum expire.

On May 22, the public comment period ends for another $50 billion worth of tariffs, and the Trump administration can announce a final list of targets.

And Aug. 18 is potentially the deadline for the administration to act on an investigation into Chinese trade practices. But there’s a provision for a 180-day delay after that.

Key caveats: President Trump has the power to pursue trade policy almost at whim. And a W.T.O. proceeding against China could take years.

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Google Employee Tried to Coerce Company to Hack Trump’s Android Phone, Ban Gmail Account

Over the past two years, I’ve seen first hand an incredible amount of media censorship. Some of it made sense, but the vast majority of it was for political purposes. Breitbart is reporting this afternoon of a scheme by senior engineer, Alon Altman, who actively lobbied the company in internal memos to “brick” Trump’s Android, ban his gmail account, along with members of his administration, ban alt-right videos from youtube, and the demonetize websites with a conservative slant.

Apparently, this is her face.

Alon Altman, Senior Engineer, Google

And here is her retarded email.

This information was revealed in the discrimination lawsuit of a James Damore vs Google, who was fired for publishing an ‘anti-diversity’ manifesto.

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Each and every year, the seasonal trends repeat themselves. About this time of year, the faggotry media run articles like this — DON’T MISS OUT ON THE GREAT COMMODITY RALLY TO COME…

Truth is, the person who wrote that article is probably a fat faced alpha male who is a shitty investor. If he bothered to take a look at the facts, he’d see this trend is persistent and incredibly predictable.

Notice how people made money in commodities before May and then blew the fuck up afterwards? That’s right — if you find yourselves heeding the advice of CNBC — you’re liable to get beat the fuck out in about two weeks flat.

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Based Upon the Laws of Seasonality, Here Are the Best Stocks/Sectors to Own

Here’s one way to use big data to make investment choices. Gather up enough information on seasonal trends and form a thesis. Exodus has a thousand different ways to help you win — quit being so damned stubborn and join the league of top hatted gents already. Summer is just around the bend and the champagne parties will be keeping you too busy to mind the portfolio. Plus, your fat faced manager is likely to blow your account the fuck out. Have faith in the algorithms and the data — for they do not lie.

In short, be long oil and other basic materials, short semis, biotech.

Some names.

A visual on how predictable oil is this time of year.

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