iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,003 Blog Posts

Bring Back the Court Jesters

The problem with American politics is that the people demand to be entertained, as they feverishly engorge themselves with Nando, cheesed doodles, along with any number of strong narcotics and booze. More or less, much of America is populated by varmints, both new and old, perverted, slobbish people who festoon their living quarters with degeneracy and live out villainous lives.

Here’s Trump weighing in on NFL kneelers and how owners should deal with them.

Here is the full outburst.

The President has now entered the red zone in politics, messing with her favorite pastime — fool’s ball. Will this latest gambit pay off? Or, will an assault on the CIA’s favorite deflection be his downfall?

My personal opinion, not that it should mean more than anyone else’s, is that the President shouldn’t get up on stages, stumping for people with the last name ‘Strange’ — calling for multi-millionaire fools-ball players to be fired for kneeling during the anthem. Instead, he should’ve dispatched an Anthony Scaramucci type figure onto the public, cursing, using terms like ‘fughetiboutit’, to discuss this very important matter. This jester could’ve said all of the things Trump said, AND MORE, without sapping the office of the Presidency from whatever semblance of dignity it had left in it. For the sake of the nation, and for our cherished institutions, being back the court jester. We’ve already brought back other fine institutions, like family monarch and the aristocracy, feudal lords, and clandestine forms of slavery — why not this?

Comments »

WINSHIP RAINS DOWN UPON YOU LIKE A STORM OF ONE THOUSAND HURRICANES

It feels good being back in the saddle, throwing bowling balls at you misfits in the alley, blocking the pastoral backdrop. I booked the gains in XIV, segued them over to BEDU — because the Chinese are good at school. By the end of the trading session, my gains redoubled and redoubled again.

You can try to stop this train that I’ve created for myself — but it will only get you killed. Like a frozen rope dangling from a broken crane — you’re entirely useless.

I’ve had good times around these parts for a decade plus. During that time I’ve been gracious to all of my readers, offering treats and special stories for their entertainment. All of that has ended today. From now on, you’re my entertainment. I will now watch you make fools out of yourselves trying to stop me — a train traveling at speeds that defy the laws of physics.

You saw the markets march higher throughout the session. Bears are about to get their dicks cut off again, for the third time over the past year. They keep getting their penises reattached, only to be grabbed up and mugged again, placed inside the dick guillotine for expeditious chopping.

“The Fly” is heading out now — with money bags in tow.

Comments »

At What Price Does $SNAP Become ‘Cheap’?

I don’t think about Snapchat too often. I kind of chalked them up to the social media misfits, piled in with YELP, TWTR, GRPN and ANGI. My 20 year old son has been a great barometer of SNAP’s grasp on the minds of the youth and he’s been using it a lot less — opting more for Instagram. My youngest aren’t allowed to ever download the app, as I deem it now tantamount to contracting brain cancer during the school year.

Over the past week, SNAP’s shares have tumbled by another 10%. Over the past six month’s, SNAP has done nothing but pile losses atop of losses — down 37% over that period.

When does the stock become cheap?

At the present p/s valuations, it’s trading 27x sales. Is that cheap?

FB is 15x and TWTR is 5x, so I’m guessing no.

What if SNAP got cut in half again? That’d bring the PS down to around 13x present year. If we extrapolate their growth rate one year out, we can place their FPS at around 7x.

At $7, SNAP would be cheap, compared to FB, but still at a premium to TWTR. I suppose that’s fair, since TWTR is a poorly run company by zealots who lack zeal.

If forced to guess the bottom, I’d say somewhere between $7-10, based off current revenue estimates.

Now if you’re long SNAP here, why is that? Are you merely throwing mashed potatoes at the ceiling, hoping they don’t fall on your head? Just because a stock is hated, that doesn’t mean it’s a buy. You can’t invest based upon the actions of others. To suggest that Joe Schmo is a ‘contrary indicator’, therefore making your decision to counter him justified is plain stupid and would never be tolerated by any regulators.

Other than that, give me a few good catalysts that would make me want to own SNAP.

Comments »

Trying My Hand At Some CHINESE FUCKERY

Why the hell not? You people are plowing money like mules into some fictitious digital currency that tracks every second of your life through something called ‘the blockchain.’ Why the fuck can’t I try my hand at a little CHINESE FUCKERY?

With the proceeds from my austere investment in XIV, I shoveled shit into my bedroom and now sleep with ticker symbol BEDU.

I am in bed with Chinese schooling, Bright Schools to be exact.

The way I figure, the Chinese are pretty darn good at school. This company seems to be adequate in ripping people off — offering parents false hope. Look at some of their recent graduates. They’re going to good foreign university.

The chart screams ‘where’s the condom’? This fucker is exploding with joy, doubling since it IPOd a short while ago. This thing is going up like a fucking song.

It’s pretty thinly traded. I can invite a few friends and neighbors over to the house today and push this thing up a few dollars between a few of us if I wanted to. My bet is for MOAR fuckery, MOAR gains, illogically pursuing greatness in the form of Chinese schools.

Here’s the description.

As of February 28, 2017, the Company had six international schools, which focus on internationally-accredited curricula and offer extracurricular activities and programs; 11 bilingual schools, which provide government-mandated curricula and developing students’ English proficiency; and 34 bilingual kindergartens, including 11 that deliver international curricula. As of February 28, 2017, the Company operated 51 schools.

Near term, my price target is $30. My urinal shadows, however, they think it breaks to $50 by November.

Comments »

Lazy River Sauntering v Nuclear War Spreads Blow Out: I Sold $XIV

After doing some charting, I noticed that the spread between ‘lazy river sauntering’ vs ‘Nuclear War with N. Korea’ had blown out to record highs. With the VIX under $10, and me being up nice in XIV, I found little honor in holding over the weekend.

Booked the trade. It was a good one. Moving on.

Comments »

JP Morgan’s Dimon Doubles Down on Bitcoin Warning: It’s Worth Nothing

JP Morgan’s Dimon doubled down on his criticism of bitcoin and other cryptos, all but promising it would end badly and suggesting that once it became a threat to governments, people would go to jail for aiding and abetting it.

“It’s creating something out of nothing that to me is worth nothing,” he said. “It will end badly.”

Here is the full clip.

Naturally, he’s not against the blockchain, which is an oppressive government’s wet dream — being able to track every fucking transaction digitally. I don’t know how so many people got duped into believing the blockchain equated more freedom, when in fact every god damned thing is documented. Personally, I prefer to use cash — backed by the full faith and credit of the US military apparatus. The idea of storing my value in a currency that was created out of thin air and could be hacked and stolen by crafty Russians is beyond the pale for me.

Bitcoin is -5.2%, Etherum -6.7% and Bitcoin cash is -10.5%.

Comments »

Back in the Saddle, Drinking Good Coffee

Often times, I’m in a rush and do not have time to prepare ‘good coffee’. There are very few things in life more rewarding than a good cup of coffee — the ephemeral experience of flavor, at the right temperature, that can literally change moods.

In recent years, I’ve become a student of coffee and could barista at any coffee house in America, having read a few books on the subject, toiling away in the kitchen to find what works best for me. A new challenge for me was being able to enjoy latte-type coffee without using dairy. The coconut creme in Trader Joe’s has the right consistency and sweetness to substitute milk, one of my favorite beverages on earth which is now explicitly banned — according to my new vegan religion.

I’ll run through my process, quickly — as I am dying to write about Jamie Dimon’s latest salvo at the bitcoin community.

Select the bean you like.

Personally, I like a dark roast, French mostly. I do not like the lighter roasts because they’re very acidic, fruity and have too much caffeine. Remember, the lighter the roast, the stronger the coffee. Most people believe darker roasts equate to more caffeine; but they’re wrong. During the roasting process, the darker the beans get, the more caffeine gets burned off.

Try to avoid ground coffee.

There is nothing better than grinding your own beans. If forced to use ground, be sure to store is in an air tight container or just drink the stuff as fast as possible. Do not sully yourselves with ground coffee, for the love of God. Also, when grinding the beans, do not grind for more than 3 seconds at a time. The heat from the blades can burn the beans and ruin your coffee.

Temperature

There are fanatics who take a thermometer to boiling water and the heating of the milk. Those people are lunatics. For the record, I haven’t done this in over 6 months. Bring the water to a ‘rolling boil’ for French Press brewed coffee. If doing a pour over, boil it a little longer — since the temperature will be reduced by the exposure to air. There are no other forms of coffee brewing that are acceptable.

Milk/Coffee blend

If you’re working with espresso, 1/4th espresso, 3/4ths milk make a latte. For a cappuccino, 50/50 split. If you do not have a high end espresso machine, buy one of those old school stove top ones that are found in every household in Italy. They might not produce crema — but they do make good espresso. For the record, I’ve produced crema using one — truly a rare feat. Back to the milk. Buy a frother that heats up the milk. They’re pretty cheap and bring the milk to the right temperature. If you’re doing it on the stove, you’ll ruin your pots or you’ll probably burn the milk, all but ruining an otherwise good cup of coffee.

Microbubbles

For a good latte or Cafe Au Lait, you need to properly froth the milk to create ‘micro-bubbles.’ This is the texture needed to lather in a thick, almost glue-like, milky substance into the black. If you’re winging it with cheap equipment, simply pour the milk into a french press and jerk it for solid 15 seconds, or until the volume of the liquid doubles.

Pour

After brewing in the French press for 6 minutes, fill half a cup of coffee and the other half with frothed milk, which you patiently left to sit for a few minutes. You do not need sugar, since the frothed milk is sweet and you’re not a 5 year child in need of sweets.

Drink and enjoy.

Comments »

Morning Poppers (Crazy Nixon Edition)

Just when you thought the N. Korean business couldn’t get crazier, Trump and Kim Jong Un are going tit for tat in who did it crazier. This morning, President Trump menaced Kim with his Twitter account — yet again.

Futures are about flat. My health feels as if it’s steadily improving, although I am reticent to declare victory over this devilish virus just yet. I am, however, taking a steady flow of anti-hystemines to combat the late summer allergens that plague me.

Not much going on this morning, aside from marginal strength in Europe. I have meetings soon and will be placing my quantitative trades around noon. I did have a dream that I sold all of my discretionary stocks and loaded up on XIV. I sort of like the thought of that, placing all of my eggs in one frail basket. Then again, I do like nurturing several ideas at once too.

Here are the other notable, via my Twitter.

Comments »

A Brief Overview of Exodus for Free Trial Loafers

Tomorrow I have appointments all throughout the morning. I intend to cough upon these people and make them gravely ill with whatever I’m afflicted with.

For supper, I believe that I ate some shrimp toast, a veggie taco, and maybe a dried fruit. Mostly, I’m sustaining off a bread and potato diet, becoming something of a fucking potato head in the process. I do not kid myself as to the dietary disadvantaged to being a very poor vegetarian/pescatarian. I do supplement my diet with a steady flow of gin, which has always proven to be somewhat effective in curing the pangs of starvation.

As of lately, however, whenever I drink, I begin to sweat profusely. I’m not talking about alcoholic cocktails, but plain water or coffee. I believe it’s time for me to go dry and refuse all fluids until this malady is cured. Perhaps I will visit the old Victorian Era doctor down the road for a little blood letting too — maybe affix some cold leeches to my face to energetically sap all of the ailments out from my body.

Exodus.

This is for the 100 or so free trials who are now inside the hallowed halls, trying to figure out how to use the software.

Think of it as a watch tower that you get sit in to view the market. Each stock is rated by fundamentals and technicals. I did micromanage some sectors, particularly in the commodity space, which makes them sensitive to actual commodity movements. A large drop in oil would have a deleterious effect on the intra day technicals of oil stocks, for example. There are two other grading factors that are less transparent: one dubbed The Fifth Column and another Sub Rosa. Both take traditional correlating metrics to stocks and sectors and rewards/punishes scores based on percentage change movements.

For example:

When treasuries move X amount on a year to date basis, historically speaking, it is bearish for stocks.

How do we make money using it?

You can sit back and wait for mean reversion signals to kick in. Here are today’s oversold stocks. Or, you can wait for an overall system OS, which has been very rare over the past year. Not much fun waiting around.

Here’s a screen I like to peruse.  I used to have something like this at an old firm on one of their trading systems and I loved it. Basically, it gauges momentum by % from the daily high. I added in industries, so you can sort through them at your preference. When the number of stocks in this screen increases, the market is being bought, and vice versa. This is a great way to determine where money is going in real time.

I digitized a certain look on a chart that I like, the long consolidation, about to break out.

You can find most of my favorite screens, as well as seasonality stuff on The Grid.

Inside The Pelican Room is where we have our very active community of traders, who share ideas throughout the day. That room used to be a separate service that we merged into Exodus, which was called 12631. It was a $150k per annum revenue stream that was all but canceled out for the benefit of Exodus users. I hope you appreciate this feature, fuckheads.

The User Notes section is the original denizen where PPTers used to converse. PPT was the original iteration of this service. There you will find old schoolers and people who like to leave detailed notes on certain stocks.

The Industry Page will show you 200+ industries and how they’re performing intra-day, and on the far right of the page, timeframes ranging from 1 day to 5 years. If you click on one of the industries, like Trucking, take a look at the “chart” — which is the hybrid scores of all of the trucking stocks aka predictive algos. Essentially, this is the OB/OS, customized over 200 industries.

There’s also valuation and seasonality tools  on an stock (AAPL), industry (diversified electronics), and sector (technology) level. You can use this data to see how your stock, industry, sector is valued by PE/PS/PB over the past decade, stacked up against peers and the market as a whole. This is an immensely useful tool for people interested in fundamentals.

Here’s Apple’s historical PS ratios. The visualizations are helpful, at least to me they are.

Per stock, we elegantly break down revenue and earnings streams, noted by the exact date when earnings were reported.

This is what taking over America looks like.

Naturally, there are thousands of ways to splice the screens, create baskets aka watch lists and all of this can be shared inside the community. Both community screens and baskets are public, so whenever someone creates something, they’re listed.

My quant positions are here.

My discretionary trades are here.

Inside of each user Profile, you can direct message another member — for private correspondence. We do not monitor that shit.

I keep a blog there, which I update on occasion — whenever I deem it necessary. If anyone has a special request for the Exodus blog, I am all ears.

When I was starting out in the business, back in 1997, I would’ve loved to have access to a platform like this. Instead, I literally slaved away on the Bloomberg terminal and Yahoo message boards for ideas and information. There isn’t a platform out there that is the holy grail. If they advertise themselves as such, you should ignore them. The point of any financial software tool is for it to be useful to you can possibly create value. I’ve made endless amounts of coin trading off the oversold signals alone, aside from the sundry of picks I’ve harvested from there, names that I never knew existed until I found them there.

I hope you enjoy your trial and my thoughts and prayers are with you, hoping that you overcome your indecorous freeloading ways and become an upstanding paying member of our burgeoning community of top hatted gents and ladies soon.

Comments »

$PG and Peltz Proxy Fight Just Got Uglier

Does Proctor and Gamble think they’re going to beat Trian and Nelson Peltz?

The good folks at P&G do not want to give legendary investor, Nelson Peltz, a seat on their board. They’ve gone thru great lengths to rebuff him, even publishing an amazing 106 page retort to Peltz’s 94 page presentation, highlighting how great PG is and how dreadful a person Peltz is and will be for shareholders at the company. This is very amusing to watch from afar, as these two different brand of fucksticks battle it out.

“What’s dangerous is the way they’re acting and the way they’re running this company today,” Peltz said. “They’re overseeing a melting ice cube.”

All Nelson wants is a seat at the table. He’s made his suggestions known.

PG is trying to paint the picture that little old Nelson is ‘outdated’, dangerous and bereft of new ideas.

Nelson’s reply:

As for his disruption in gaining a board seat, Peltz said, “I’ll be one vote out of 12. How disruptive can I be?”

According to the PG report published earlier this week, Trian’s investments have trailed the S&P by 5%. After Trian announced they sold a position, one week later said shares beat the SPY by 0.3%. This is truly subjective horseshit. I mean look at this rubbish.

Over the past year, PG has lagged the S&P by 10%, and a staggering 33% over 5 years. No matter how their advisors at Goldman try to spin it, they haven’t been doing a good job for shareholders.

On the topic of advisors, PG has retained the services of Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Centerview and Lazard to fend off the Trian attack. This is truly fucktarded, spending anywhere from $35-$150 million against a person who’s proven to be an asset to the companies he takes an interest in (WEN, HNZ, MDLZ).

What is PG trying to hide?

This evening Trian responded to the PG report, claiming they made ‘more than 50 errors’ — misrepresenting their track record. They’re requesting those errors to be fixed.

Procter & Gamble: Trian (Nelson Peltz) says P&G’s Sept 19 presentation contains ‘significant number of material data errors, calculation errors and misrepresentations of Trian’s and Nelson Peltz’s track records’ (92.64 -1.76) “We are disappointed in the quality of the presentation that the Board and Management of Procter & Gamble released on September 19th, 2017 which is filled with a significant number of material data errors, calculation errors and misrepresentations of Trian’s and Nelson Peltz’s track records (we have identified more than 50 errors and misrepresentations to date). P&G has apparently tasked its army of advisors with discrediting Nelson Peltz and Trian, in order to redirect the conversation away from the real issues at hand — in particular P&G’s ongoing market share losses and bottom quartile shareholder returns. We feel it is necessary to ‘set the record straight’ as shareholders and other constituencies deserve to understand the level of P&G’s intellectual dishonesty we believe underlies this presentation. We would like P&G to correct these errors, but ultimately it is shareholders who must hold the Company accountable.”

Here’s PG’s real track record, sales declines every quarter since 2014.

Comments »