Never Short a Boring Market

On one hand I sort of feel as if the gains for the year have been had, and enjoyed. On the other, I want more. I am cognizant of the fact that my desires don’t necessarily gibe with the future outcomes — but the trends has been higher and all bids are being bought.

In the past week or so the breadth has narrowed, making it difficult to trade indiscriminately. The small caps have lagged and the truly degenerate stocks have been dismantled. This is the reason why I’m -1.4% for December. I’m not too worried about my performance, since the month is young and I feel good about my handle on this particular tape.

I closed the session down 14bps, heavily leveraged long without hedges at 115% of equity. I have soured on basic materials and now favor healthcare, risk averse, and select tech names. I do like certain retail oriented names, such as SBH and GOOS. We are of course in the middle of the Christmas shopping season and things appear to be doing just fine, unfortunately.

The tape is slow and methodical and many people are choosing to trade less — in preparation of the holiday down time. The year has been good — but not easy. I look forward to tackling the puzzle of the market in 2024 and beyond but before I do, damn it, I want to make another 5% from here.

Hello Sirs —

I’d like to take a moment out from your day to remind you that — if you’re not participating in the dissolution of the central banks by way of investing into $BTC and other high brow cryptos — you are in fact retarded.

The arguments against crypto are always the same, predictable fear, uncertainly, and doubt — stemming from “it’s fake” to “it’s a trap.” There is no need to overthink this, as there is no need to overthink the condition of the ever rising stock market. The fact that people bid up $BTC makes it true. The idea that it’s all a scam is rooted in paranoia. The fiat currency racket is a scam. The gold mine FOOLS are scam artists, pretending the value of their raw metal will save them from the pangs of central bank collapse, when in fact central banks more or less control the price of gold.

It’s true, gold has been a fine denizen to store wealth — but it’s not transformational and isn’t accessible to all and it certainly cannot be used easily to buy and sell things.

Take heart in knowing that when $BTC drops in value — it’s merely a way station onto greater and bigger things. HOWEVER, I do not have an expectation with regards to price targets or when in fact the price will truly soar. I just know that it will, eventually. It might happen post nuclear detonation or dissolution of the ECB or perhaps it’ll take another bout of rapid inflation coupled with bank failures. But one thing I am certain about is this: people will, one day, seek refuge away from fiat and when they do $BTC and other quality cryptos will be a place to preserve value. At that point, there will be a frenzy to get in, globally, so it makes sense to buy some every month now, as if paying a bill, for a just in case scenario.

Call it a wrap for 2023. We are now trading listlessly, suggestive of market exhaustion. We have every reason to jimmy higher based on the fact Joe Biden defeated the inflation monster — yet, incredulously, we’re only up a little. It’s worth nothing the small caps are sharply lower — but who cares about them?

Overall, market breadth is once again in the shitter — at 40%. We haven’t been over 70% since 12/1. But we shouldn’t be surprised. This is part and parcel of trading during the month of December, largely a piece of shit month low lighted by PAGAN XMAS where men head out there and buy all manners of shit for their children and wives — load up on credit card debt and/or deplete some of their cash reserves — for a holiday that was never meant to be.

Once upon a time Christmas was to celebrate the birth of the son of God. Nowadays we celebrate a fat home invader squeezing through your chimney to eat your cookies and to drink your milk.

I am down 20bps today. My ‘revenge trade’, thus far, flopped — but I haven’t given up on the idea just yet. As my readers know, “The Fly” is a virtuous man with many talents and is deserving of stocked market wins. At times it will appear that I have lost the narrative, drowning in the volume of my own trades and/or hubris. But rest assured, I’ll come right back to preside over all in time as Chieftain of the Market — scalping heads, merrily, along the way.

More later.

I was lost in the forest of the market today, stemming from my disinterest. I’ve taken up a new avocation — learning to code. By my math, it will take me the next 13 years of my life, spending roughly two hours per day every day, in order to get good. I will of course learn fast and believe I am good way before I am actually good. But to be actually good at anything, roughly 10,000 hours is required.

I shed 128bps today and I took the position of cold hearted revenge heading into tomorrow. I am LEVERAGED LONG 123% in some of the finest stocks with the intent to skin alive those who chose to bet against me. I realize no one actually bet against me and these are merely figments of my imagination. However, I find it impossible to do anything without steaming directly ahead into an enemy camp.

For the month, I am roughly flat, which is disgraceful juxtaposed against the NADAQ’s +1.7% showing. I find solace in the fact that my Strategic Holdings account is +5% for December and also know that very soon my revenge will be serve extra cold and without mercy.

This sort of jargon really helps motivate me to thrust ahead, especially since it’s all so mundane and pointless — me out here “trading away” in a digital hellscape with the sole purpose of increasing my digital dollars so that one day I can drop dead and leave it all to my children who’ll spend it post haste on stupid things trips, homes, clothes — all of the things I deprived myself of in this life in exchange for toil and self imposed hardships.

GOOD DAY.

I saw Napoleon over the weekend — what an uninspired piece of shit production. Everything was bad — from the set to the acting to the moronic and anti-historical storyline. It seems to me, movies have gotten progressively worse since COVID. It’s almost as if these writer and actors are now, somehow, oddly impaired — producing shit tier films. I’ve also marveled at how CGI has gotten worse over the years, something that doesn’t make any sense but presents itself all the time in modern cinema. It just goes to show you how unserious a people we are.

I have taken the day off until now — by by 105bps. The market is good, led higher and stronger by retail, basic materials and a very strong big in the semis. $AVGO has finally achieved the $1,000 roll, which of course was inevitable. I had bet my eternal soul for nothing in return it would happen and voila — here I am right but without any gains to show for it since I was not long.

I was long $SE into today and got bagged due to Tik Tok buying their chief competitor. Today is not a runaway melt up sort of day. With cryptos lower, we have a mix, a rotation even, out of the more degenerate names and back into the lesser degenerate names.

I will attempt a foray at regaining some losses into the final hour — but more importantly set up for the morrow.

The main purpose of Stocklabs is to save time. We built the first iteration in 2008 when I managed money so that software could scan 10qs and 8ks for me, saving me the time to figure out the fundamentals of a company. We did the same for charting applying algorithms to each stock and ETF, grading them using various factors. I’ve always hated the monotony of having to sift through charts and viewed it as an antiquated practice.

Inside Stocklabs we have a tech score that finds the best rated stocks intraday. I use this score every single day to help identify breakouts. Here was the top rated stock at the close Friday.

Top rated tech score (intra-day)

We then took that tech score and build aggregate datasets over various time frames — going out 1 year. By using these tools, any user can isolate the best traded stocks over these time frames. I use this to view pattern changes and money flow in and out of sectors.

Here are the top rated stocks over the past week and 6 months.

Top rated SAA 1 week

Here is the last thing I’ll show you, knowing most of you have ADHD. The way I find stocks every single day for the past 3 years is using the volume tools inside the platform. The graphic below is a still shot of the “Alpha” screener, which I keep set on 5 min change of +0.3%.

What the fuck does this mean? It means that is ANY stock moves more than 0.3% over a 5 min time frame it will show up in this scan. If you’re like me, you can see how valuable this tool could be when day trading. A typical setting for me is tech score above 3 (scale is 1-5, 5 being best), minimum volume of 500k shares trades, and within 2 or 3% of session highs.

The percent near session highs is a very important distinction for me. I do not want to catch falling knives. I am a momentum trader and want stocks busting loose at intraday highs. Many times the Alpha screener will produce stocks in a similar sector, which I clarify using more than 100 custom watchlists to help me isolate trends.

Here’s a look at some of my lists — which I use daily to monitor breakouts.

I’d be lying to you if I said Stocklabs is the only reason why I’m a good trader. I’ve always been good, even before SL. HOWEVER, my annual returns used to be in the ballpark of 30% and since I’ve started day trading and using these tools, my gains have exploded to +112% annualized.

GOOD DAY.

I bet you thought I was done going higher when I reported earlier I had made a little more than 2%. You’d be wrong to bet against me then and you’d be wrong to bet against me now.

I preside over you with the skulls of my enemies in tow — +318bps for the session — thrusting me back into the green for the month of December.

My strategic holdings account, which is designed for longer term ideas, ebbed higher against by 69bps — lifting gains for the month of 5.5%.

I am fixed to go higher — permanently bullish — fully long with cash reserves of 25%. Just one day ago I had been imposed upon by markets, downtrodden and ridiculed with scorn for having missed out on all of the deals. But now you see, and it’s as clear as the moon landing was a fake — The Fly is everlasting in his winship. The very fact that I was down should’ve made you run into the Stocklabs chatroom to see what I would do next — because I don’t ever fucking lose and when things seems to be going poorly for me — BAM — I come back with a vengeance and sever all of the stupid heads bobbing in my way.

Year to date, my gains stand at 56% — providing me with a 3 year average return of 112%.

Have a pleasant weekend, catamites.

At the onset of trade by heavily leveraged portfolio was down 75bps and I said to myself “all is not lost Fly. The Gods have never let us down before — except for that one time they wiped up the fuck out clean.” I turned off the monitor and turned it back the fuck on at 10:30am up 200bps.

See pal, that’s how it’s fucking done. You turn off the monitor down and turn it back on screaming higher.

Always gracious and with poise, I went to cash and then took a barbell approach to things, long $GUSH and $LABD in equal measure as a temporary holding pattern before I re enter the tape a champion.

More later and be prepared to shut the fuck up.

GOOD SIRS —

I EXITED THE MARKET HEAVILY LEVERAGED LONG, MOSTLY DEGENERATE STOCKS — WITH THE IDEA OF DESERVING TO MAKE MONEY.

I AM WRITING TO YOU IN ALL CAPS DUE TO A SENSE OF URGENCY AT HOUSE FLY. I AM DOWN NEARLY 4% FOR THE WEEK, HAVING SHED ANOTHER 0.34% TODAY. THE WAY I AM POSITIONED NOW, I STAND TO MAKE 5% TOMORROW AND WILL THEN LIVE HAPPILY EVER AFTER IN PROFIT AND GOOD SPIRITS.

FUCKING OFF FOR NOW. KEEP ME IN YOUR MOST SINCERE PRAYERS.

All of this waffling has me sick to my stomach. I took most of the day off to reflect upon the drinks I had last night and also about markets. I am rarely if ever free from thinking about them. I dream about them nearly every single night, so lucid that at times I wake up and was unsure if it was real or not.

On most night, however, I have nightmares of the frightful sort.

At any rate, today did it for me. The melt up we are boring witness to in many areas of the market, coupled with the weakness of oil, leads me to believe the bull market is back and this time I will not quit on it.

If the market pulls in on Monday, as some bull markets tend to do on occasion, I will remain steadfast against the waves and remain stoic. I will of course adhere to proper risk management but the idea I am trying to convey is that my mind has been flushed of the bearish elements and I am now, officially, a bull.

Most likely, you will, again, take this blog as affirmation of a top and attempt to ridicule me for flippe flopping. Know this, I will find you and skin you alive, so be careful about getting on my wrong side.