18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,420 Blog Posts

Wamu Will Be Wiped Out

Fuck it. Privately, I’ve concluded that [[WM]] would go to zero, a long time ago. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say WM will be insolvent by year end, unless they get “bailed out” or bought out.

Their credit rating is now BBB, one notch above junk. More than 50% of their loan portfolio is in California. You cannot be in a worse position that “Wamu,” unless you are [[ABK]] or [[MBI]].

With the stock down more than 50% in a month, despite Cramer suggesting the shares could go “straight up,” thanks to Fed rate cuts, it is my belief that the wagons are being circled and there is some significant piece of negative news, yet to be announced.

Stay tuned.

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Position Updates: SMN

I’ve been building up my [[SMN]] position for more than a month. As you know, if you are long too, it’s been very frustrating, as ag and basic resource related stocks catapulted higher.

However, it looks like the God Father of the SMN, [[MON]], is about to break lower. Just so you know, MON represents about 10% of SMN.

Again, going long SMN, gets you short [[DD]], [[FCX]], [[DOW]], [[AA]], [[PX]], [[NEM]] and [[APD]].

In other words, going long SMN gets you short all the over inflated crap that has been shooting higher, as of late.

I will be selling SMN above $50.

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Fly Sell: MON

I sold short 5,000 shares of [[MON]] @ $110.

Disclaimer: If you sell short MON because of this post, the next time you take a bubble bath, a fucking plugged in toaster will fall in with you. And, you may lose money.

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This Time it’s Different

I’ll give you a little background on my trading success and failures.

I’ve been trading for a long, long time. Although, I’m just 31 years of age; I’ve been invested in stocks since I was 16 years old. Throughout the years, I’ve made loads of spasticly retarded trades, causing great anguish. Luckily, I’ve had far more winners.

One thing, as unbelievable as it seems, repeats itself over and over and over.

I ALWAYS kick ass in the beginning of every new year. The reasoning: I have a heightened focus on what is taking place in the markets. I’m a big believer in “starting new” and setting goals, at the beginning of every new year. I even participate in new year rituals, of the voodoo kind, which I will discuss much much later.

However, as some of you know, by reading my rants over the past two years, I get very cold during the summer months.

Unknowingly, I believe after having great early year success, I get lazy and complacent. Admittedly, after being up 47% by May of last year, I coasted and got my balls lit aflame. If it weren’t for refocusing, I would be down anywhere between 25-40% right now.

As you know, I was uber bullish and had gigantic positions in many speculative stocks, like [[MVIS]], [[ARWR]], [[NTRI]] and [[BWLD]].

However, this time it’s different. I will keep my heightened focus, all year, and try to bang out a triple digit year. I’ll have you know, already, “The Fly’s” personal account is up more than 125%, year to date.

If you want to become a better investor, you need to live in the world of finance, even if it’s not your profession. Read all the newspapers, all of the magazines and stay up to 4am, watching CNBC Asia and Europe, amongst other things.

As for sleep, you’ll get plenty of that shit when you’re dead.

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UPDATED: iBankCoin is Recession Proof

The employment numbers were bad, but we are bouncing off the lows. Thus far, I’ve sold 75% of my [[SRS]] position and 90% of my [[SKF]] position.

Quite honestly, being up more than 35% year to date, I find no need to be greedy here. I’m not interested in catching tops or bottoms, just the fat middle.

However, I will not adjust my [[SMN]], [[EFA]] and [[DUG]] positions. I do believe there is downside left in those sectors.

We all understand how awful the economy is and how stocks are for asshats. However, keep in mind, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. The downside may be stalled by selling exhaustion.

Do not misconstrue my profit taking ways for wanting to play the long side. I’d rather run around a fucking mine field, with magnets on my feet, in the middle of Afghanistan.

With the proceeds, I will stay in cash.

UPDATE: If you’re going long, hoping for a bounce, be sure to keep tight stops. I believe the market may “re-reverse” and head lower into the close. If you’re buying here, you may end up going bankrupt or wiping out your entire bullshit E-Trade account, by early next week.

Leave the trading to pro’s like me. You over there, just shut up and watch the master at work.

Class dismissed.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMiSiTcz5lo 450 300]

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