Eminem – The way I Am

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Will you shut the fuck up already? Don’t tell me how to operate my award winning, 1st tier financial website. Psychologically, today was one of those “OMG, WTF am I gonna do days,” as the bottom dropped out of banks, cre and everything in between.

As for me, aside from adding to my FAZ/SRS positions this morning, I did nothing. I could have added to current longs, but most of them are small cap losers. I do not like buying into sharp declines, since painful down markets beget more pain. However, I will say, we will trade higher tomorrow.

If you shorted stock into the bell, you are gambling 100%. Let’s face it, the time to get short was Friday, not following a 20%+ dip in [[BAC]]. I just can’t get myself to sell short into such a mess.

All of the past winners were down double digits today. There is an old adage that applies: “the market takes the stairs up, but the elevator down.”

At the moment, major market tells can be found in the price action in [[UUP]], [[FXY]], [[TLT]] and [[USO]]. If you can figure out the correlation then you are not as stupid as all of your friends and family say you are.

Anyway, I gave back a good 6-7% today, lowering my ytd gains to around 18%. As difficult as this market is, I am confident, without any doubts, by the end of the year you will bear witness to Senor Tropicana knocking the cover off the ball, yet again. He always does and he always wins.

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The market versus its participants.

Many of you are like small retarded children. I suspect you entertain yourselves with colorful blocks and crayons. I chuckle at your comments, for you are nothing more than clapping seals, easily trained, easily killed. Men, like “The Fly”, will be around to toss men like you into lit fireplaces, drenched in turpentine, indefinitely.

With that in mind, it’s easy to understand your perspective— a simple lowly reader of some Godly blog. Do not fret, for the blue collar gloom and doom is right around the corner. At that time, you will all like “The Fly” again, as he resurrects HORATIO CLAWHAMMER from the dead and dispatches him to eat the brains of overzealous bulls.

However, before that happens, it’s important to test the waters, in order to get situated, if I might suggest doing so. Making bold, decisive moves is what “The Fly” is all about. That is why I am opting to keep a long bias into this decline. My position could be a loser and I might have to correct it later. However, I accept the task ahead and understand the risks.

If you choose to take the direction of the market, based upon every tick, you will find yourself on the receiving end of an egregious foreclose notice, within the year. You’re too nervous; calm the fuck down.

Instead of watching each tick, I suggest smoking a cigar, while gingerly sipping on a lot aged scotch. Wear a robe: punch someone in the stomach. Unwind a little, you’re making me nervous just reading your “SOS style of writing.”

If you are long, today is a bad day. Big fucking deal. If you are short, you’re feeling like an adolescent with a summer crush.

As for me: Don’t you worry about my affairs, for they are none of your concern, nor the interest of any civilian.

This is “down the elevator shaft you go” trading action, for those of you keeping track at home. I have one long up, JDSU. Other than that, it’s been bloody murder—all day long.

I added to my underwater FAZ/SRS positions and thankfully admired my FXP. However, my short exposure is limited, effectively leaving me naked and exposed to the cold winter winds of a bear market pullback.

The question on everyone’s mind: is this a pullback, or the resumption of the bear market? Those answers, and more, will be answered later on this week. For now, it’s important to run personal stress tests and figure out pain thresholds and whether it makes sense to buy more, down at these levels, or head for the hills. After all, if this is simply a pit stop, on the way higher, today is a divine buying opportunity, with many stocks down 10%+.

In my opinion, the banks never deserved to go higher anyway. Fuck the banks and the bullshit jalopy they drove in on or inside of or whatever the fuck they use to transport themselves from A to B.

My point: the rally was never about the banks or cre. It was about a pick up in end user demand, as evidenced by the sharp increases in factory utilization. However, let it be known, people are still woefully unemployed and the country is a dastardly-bastardly mess. I said it once and I will said it again: I am bearish on stocks for 2009, no matter what. But, I have no problem getting long, if only to prostitute myself for a little coin.

With my money, I will keep my overweight long position in place; but add to some shorts—just in case.

Regarding my deflationary vortex theory: at the moment it is not working. However, that does not mean it won’t work later. Now, I could have dug in my heels and averaged down on SRS/FAZ, instead of selling them, entrenching myself in loser positions. However, I opted to live to fight another day. Then I opted to join the other side and kill some bears, with blade in hand.

When oil was north of $125, I was bullish on oil/gas stocks. Conversely, once oil broke $100 on the downside, I got bearish. I do not use charts; but I respect price action more than anything else. There are real fundamental ramifications that must be recognized, with respects to commodity prices. I, Sir, respect none of them (just kidding dickface. I respect all of them).

However, generally speaking, every quarter or so, I layout my investment thesis, a guideline of sorts— in order to have something to default on whenever the investing waters get murky. At the end of the day, investing, like life, is about not sucking. You don’t need to nail every trade, or even 75% of them, to be successful. As long as you know how to manage risk, via stop losses/ position sizing/ diversification, and can pick stocks like a motherfucker, you will not suck. As a point in fact, you will win, a lot—similar to, but not like “The Fly” (The Fly is always better, no matter what).

Lucky for me, I have a God given ability to identify trends and see the future through the prism of my space aged watching glass.

At any rate, we are entering the 7th week of the rally. I will be looking for signs of a market climax, particularly since I NEVER like to press a bull run more than 7 weeks. The most likely scenario: the small cappers, explode once again, to the upside, vacuuming every fucking lemming North of the equator into this wretched market, just in time for some marvelous guillotine action.

Personally, I will lock in gains this week and scout to initiate shorts in the banks/CRE/oil.

May a local garbage man— accidentally— toss you into his truck, thinking you were just small piece of trash. I am happy to announce my intentions to enjoy “Sucker Saturday” amidst the many chores Mrs. Fly has so graciously squeezed into my overburdened schedule.

At the moment, I am resting from an arduous afternoon of slavery. However, just know, there is much work to be done in the fields of woe.

I shall take my power washer and knock down my neighbors stupid ornaments, while frantically guzzling down chocolate milk and devouring healthy servings of sugary sweet birthday cake. God bless those who inflict diabetes on themselves.

Okay, play time is over. “The Fly” must go back to work, for the weather is first class and the whip is sharp.

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Barring a late day collapse, “The Fly” will close out the week up more than 10%. For the year, my gains stand north of 24% and I am cooler than you, in many, many ways.

Sometime soon, the market will stall and people will regret being long. A few names worth shooting down are [[MET]] and [[PACW]]. If you are playing with SRS/FAZ, you are dealing with Deacons of Death. You’re better off throwing yourself into a lit fireplace, than fuck around with those etf’s.

With my money, I like [[ALU]], [[ODP]], [[TBSI]], [[CRR]] and [[CECO]] here, amongst many others. There is a real story to be told about Alcatel Lucent, with regards to their Chinese exposure and their role as key supplier in the worldwide LTE rollout. The one caveat: underfunded pension. If the market continues north, the pension matter will resolve itself. If not, oh well, they’re fucked.

Currently, I am long a lot of offal. I think the small crappers can run for a few more days. After that, get the fuck out, because the bottom will vanish. The small cap gambling has gotten so severe, I am thinking about buying [[MRVC]]. Someone slap me.

NOTE: I sold out of my [[AMKR]] position today, for a 20% win.

iBC election Update: Mathematically, it is impossible for Cuervoslaugh to beat Jakegint, with more than 80% of the precincts reporting. Congratulations to Jakegint for winning an iBC tab. I am sure it will rank up there with your first child, wedding and first million made in the market.

VOTE!

Who will be iBC’s next tabbed blogger? [118 votes total]
JakeGint (82)	69%
Cuervoslaugh (36)	31%

Boat drinks for everyone.

I am out of here.

This market is fucking steam shipping over you losers. When I say “loser,” I am referring to those of you who think you know more than “The Fly.” Scientifically, of course, that is impossible.

I DO NOT digress.

I will say, picking from the trash heap of stocks is quite amusing. Granted, their fundamentals are monstrously awful; and if I were not drunk on gains, I’d slap myself for even looking at half of these stocks, let alone purchase them. Nonetheless, it’s fun and profitable to delve into garbagio stocks, if only for a few days.

My position sheet is too long and tedious to repeat. However, I will say, if forced to choose one sector long, I’d go with the shippers.

Unfortunately, I sold out of my [[GNK]] yesterday. But, the good news: I’ve been buying blocks of [[TBSI]], as if my head was on fire.

Within the shippers (industry ranked 11 of 202), The PPT likes the following:

If you want to see The PPT, and vote for either Jakegint of Cuervoslaugh, I strongly suggest signing up for my most gracious “one day pass” offer for $2—as I will NEVER offer this deal again.

In closing, I am bullish because it treats my checking account well. Until that relationship is interrupted, I’ll be over here, in my splendorous chair, eating up blocks of orphan stocks, while you sit there in your wooden school chair, staring at an egregious foreclosure notice.

Top pick: TBSI

iBC Election UPDATE: (polls close at 4)

VOTE!

Who will be iBC’s next tabbed blogger? [88 votes total]
JakeGint (65)	74%
Cuervoslaugh (23)	26%