Question: If we are printing money like reckless knaves, then why is the dollar up 2%, year to date? Moreover, if the Fed is buying U.S. debt, then why are yields soaring? Mind you, yields are not inching up. They are fucking soaring (see TLT).
If I was looking at this market, from a totally objective point of view, without all of the rhetoric, I’d surmise the economy was about to rip higher. Forget about all of the noise. The fact of the matter is, the Fed is aiming to buoy the economy, via POMO. What if it’s working? Is it possible that mystery money is finding its way into the economy, which will result in a sharp increase in employment?
Let’s be honest, we’ve become so jaded with regards to the economy that the very idea of it coming back is almost resentful to market pundits. We hate this economy and laud the fucking bullshit coming out of communist China. Think about it.
What we have right now is a steady dollar, rising equity markets, rising yields and soaring commodities. In my opinion, this trade will continue until commodity prices begin to impair corporate earnings via punitive input costs. Because of this thesis, I am 90% long, heavily in commodity related names, without fear of egregious bearshitter reprisals. However, I will be keeping an eye on yields and input prices, for they could easily change market sentiment on a dime, sending my holdings lower. Until then, up I go; up we go.
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