iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,574 Blog Posts

Reverse Lotto

Instead of banking big bucks on dicey Chinese solar burrito stocks, the market is ripping out the spines of speculators, then spitting them down idle drain pipes.

We have a scenario where leverage needs to unwind. It needs to unwind at the long/short hedge funds, who have a long bias. It needs to unwind at life insurance companies, who have regulated stop losses in place. And finally, leverage needs to be taken away from the investments banks, else they will taste pavement.

With every market crisis opportunities present itself. The trillion dollar question is: Are we low enough to start buying?

In my opinion, without doubt, the answer is no.

Considering the carnage in foreign markets, coupled with the massive economic problems at home, I suggest waiting to see some earnings reports, before stepping into the markets.

The last thing you want to do is start bargain shopping, ahead of some abysmal earnings reports.

Be patient you dumb fucker.

With my money, I will use any strength to sell more [[DECK]] and buy more [[DUG]].

In regards to crude, I believe we are on the other side of the mountain and can see much lower prices.

Finally, if you’re long, take a deep breath and relax; then start selling like an over caffeinated margin clerk— at an over leveraged firm.

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Fed Unloads Its Clip with Emergency 75 bps Cut

In my opinion, this (cutting by 75 bps) was a big mistake. The downward momentum of the markets is too strong now. It’s almost too late.

The Fed should have let the market bleed out today; then do the surprise cut tomorrow morning.

Now, should the sellers grab control, the bulls have no backstop—no put.

A rather precarious situation, if you’re long.

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iBankCoin Presents….

Lord Duc, “Master of Arbitrage.”

Odd, no?

Lord Ducati will be the first of many Peanut Gallery bloggers to “earn” his very own iBankCoin blog, tab and all. It’s worth noting, there will be minor revenue sharing perks.

The thought process behind bringing on Ducati narrowed down to keeping my enemies close. While it’s true, I respect the hard work and effort Mr. MacDonald puts into his blogs, he is my enemy. Make no mistake about it.

Let’s all welcome, Lord Duc.

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Go To Romania (Update)

“The Fly” told you to sell it all, back in early, mid and late December. He (“The Fly”) proclaimed being on the “verge of making (his) best call ever,” via inverse ETF’s. He gave you an inside look of how his time machine worked, which enables him to make all sorts of coin, in various countries, in every single market environment.

Some of you even mocked me when I warned you to “get ready to die.” Hey, but this blog isn’t about pounding my own chest, while hitting you with a shovel. As you know, it’s about helping poor gaytraders make a nickle or two on intra-day swings.

After all, like I said before, having a real time machine is a curse, not a decadency.

Just know, “The Fly” would never laugh at your folly.

Finally, the game plan for tomorrow is simple: don’t get tempted to throw on some longside trades.

If your favorite stock opens down 10%, just know, it can fall another 10% by the close. When markets plunge, there is no bottom. And, with the elimination of the uptick rule, expect short sellers, like me, to start shooting fish in the barrel—taking advantage of downside moves.

NOTE: Here’s a bonus post from August.

You Can’t Make This Shit Up UPDATE: Tim Knight aka “Dope on a Slope,” self proclaimed perma-bear, got caught long nasdaq CALLS, with hardly any downside protection. This is too much. I can’t laugh any harder. No need to be sympathetic; he deserves it—as you know.

Fun Update: India opened for trading, then closed within 10 minutes—due to being limit down 10%. When they reopen, look for the Sensex to be down 15%. That’s 22% in two short sessions. So much for the emerging markets “decoupling” from the U.S.

Asshats.

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European Markets Crashing

I do not mean that in jest. They’re literally crashing. All of the major European markets are off by 6%.

Cheer up. It’s only paper with ugly green faces on it.

UPDATE:

Here is a wrap up of world market trading:

Shanghai: -5.1%

Hang Seng: -5.5%

BSE 30 (India): -7.4%

Nikkei: -3.4%

All Ordinaries: -2.9%

Seoul Composite: -2.95%

DAX: -7.1%

Swiss Market: -5.2%

FTSE: -5.5%

CAC: -6.8%

I can only imagine where U.S. markets will open tomorrow. My guess, barring Fed intervention, we gap lower between 4-5%. If so, my first quarter downside targets will be achieved, forcing me to take profits and GO TO CASH.

Notice how I didn’t mention reversing course and trying to play the upside? See, that’s how rookie traders get housed. Plain and simple, if your bias is bearish, go to cash and wait patiently for another high entry point. There is no need to keep your money invested at all times. Actually, it’s absolutely amateur to think you, or anyone else, can time both sides of the market, at all times. Eventually, you will get shot.

Fuck, I know people who do 5 trades per year, and bank more coin than 90% of the retards who manage hedge funds. But that’s their style, not mine.

My point: we’re not in a bull market. The rules that applied then, during the bull, are invalid today. The game has changed. Either you change with it or get eliminated.

It’s up to you.

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Get Cute; Lose Your Legs

You asshole traders make “The Fly” sick, always trying to time tops or bottoms. Quite frankly, the sooner you realise [sic] how stupid and gay you are, the quicker I’ll stop getting sick from your “low-rank” banter.

In other news, U.S. subprime is now melting down Chinese banks.

Shocker.

HONG KONG (AFP) — Bank of China (BOC) may report lower profits or even a loss when it announces its 2007 results in April due to writedowns on struggling subprime investments, a report in Hong Kong said Monday.

The bank may announce a significant writedown on its 7.95 billion US dollars of investments in securities linked to US subprime mortgages, the South China Morning Post reported Monday, citing unnamed mainland banking sources.

Senior banking regulators had already warned the mainland leadership that BOC, as well as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, would have to make provisions for all their subprime-linked assets.

BOC, which has the biggest reported subprime exposure among Chinese banks, posted a 45.5 billion yuan (6.3 billion US) net profit for the first nine months of 2007, 40 percent more than a year before.

In September, China’s second-biggest bank said its portfolio of investments linked to the subprime market had been cut from 7.95 billion dollars from 9.65 billion dollars in August.

It set aside 322 million dollars to account for possible losses related to the assets.

However, subprime securities took a further hit in the fourth quarter, forcing several top US banks to post record losses for the period.

Goodbye Bank of China. Nice never knowing you. May you die with the dogs at [[LEH]].

Oh yeah, it looks like a grand time to “buy bank stocks recklessly, ” as future asshat of the week award winner, Doug Kass, said on Friday.

NOTE: [[FXP]] longs will be happy to know Ping An Insurance (FXP component) just filed a monster A shares offering. As a result, the stock is getting mushroom clouded.

UPDATE: China is getting knee-capped, down more than 5%.

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Burnt Coin

In one of Ducati’s comments, he mentioned some possible future hammers to befall spasticly retarded bulls, one of which is: stock buyback lending.

It’s funny that he mentioned it, since I’m currently doing some research on the matter.

Here is a good read, albeit a bit dated.

The following companies (there are many, many more) wasted obscene amounts of capital, propping up their share prices, through unnecessary share repurchase plans.

  • Countrywide (CFC)
  • Home Depot (HD)
  • Citigroup (C)
  • Fannie Mae (FNM)
  • Freddie Mac (FRE)
  • Ambac (ABK)
  • MBIA (MBI)
  • Circuit City (CC)
  • KB Home (KBH)
  • Pulte Homes (PHM)
  • Centex (CTX)
  • Toll Brothers (TOL)

In short, CEO’s and members of boards will have to answer to the egregious mismanagement of shareholder dollars, which were squandered in buybacks. The numbers are in the hundreds of billions, all done to keep share prices artificially high, in order to do who knows what.

Burnt coin, if you ask me.

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Keep Waiting

The much anticipated bounce is near.

With my money, I’ll risk being wrong short term, for right long term, by staying short.

Before I go, just know, it takes balls to hold onto big dicked gains.

As all of you know by now, “The Fly” has balls the size of whole planets or large moons.

Have a lukewarm weekend.

Off to celebrate, via 2 1/2 inch rib eyes and an aged bottle of Bordeuax [sic].

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More of the Same

For those of you who are young/stupid traders, listen up.

If the economy is in the tank, all Federal Reserve cuts will be met with selling. It will not matter, until economic growth recovers.

Keep in mind, we have yet to see a big spike in unemployment. If you think the market is bad now, wait until that shit brick hits the fan.

What’s amazing to me is the bullish sentiment of all my bearish friends. These fuckers have been waiting for this moment, forever. Yet, here we are, down a mere 7% YTD, and they’re trying to catch upside trades.

Unlike them, “The Fly” is able to bank coin in all kinds of tapes, with the marked exception of summer time tapes. As you know, by summer, “The Fly” will be fat and lazy, from living off the fat of the land, during the colder months.

It’s worth noting the annoying rally in [[XOM]], which is keeping my [[DUG]] lower.

How dare they.

If the Fed doesn’t cut rates by 3:00 today, we will close at the lows, no doubt.

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