Oil stocks are fucking ripping today, with monster gains in [[HOC]], [[DRQ]], [[VLO]], [[TSO]], [[OXY]], [[WNR]], [[FTO]] and [[DK]]. Within oil, refinery stocks are up the most, due to nice gains in gasoline. In my opinion, it’s still too early to load up on the refiners. I’d rather wait until mid March, at the beginning of the “driving season.”
Farm related stocks have gone parabolic, with outrageous moves in [[CF]], [[POT]], [[MOS]], [[AGU]], [[LNN]] and [[MON]].
Without doubt, there is a looming shortage of food. I’ve outlined my food commodity bull case numerous times. However, I believe too much cash is chasing too few stocks, effectively inflating the commodity related names to unsustainable levels. Thus far, buying [[SMN]] has been a fucking loser, thanks to the gains in MON. Nonetheless, I will continue to average in, in order to take advantage of when the fucking wind comes out of the sector. Trust me, at some point, they will break lower.
With regards to the general market tone:
Brokerage stocks are weak, with losses in [[BSC]], [[GS]], [[CS]] and [[LEH]]. In addition, retail related names are weakening, as the morons who manage your money realize that higher commodity prices, at a time when people are “jailhouse poor,” is a worst case scenario.
Don’t get me wrong, I do not wish death and destruction to all stocks, just the ones I am short.
Right now, [[REW]] seems like a low risk short side play, with [[MSFT]] being the largest holding. Keep in mind, MSFT is breaking the bank for a 3rd rate internet company ([[YHOO]]). With all the arb players leaning on Softee’s stock, I think buying REW is a no brainer and a good bet against big tech.Comments »