On paper, this market should be sold. There is nothing that could be done to save Greece and Spain/Italy/Portugal are next. Precious metals are not even close to a safe haven and the dollar/treasuries reign supreme. This is exactly what the good gent from across the pond, Hugh Hendry, has been predicting.

BEHOLD THE DEFLATIONARY VORTEX.

However, some things just don’t add up. Like why is LEN and RYL at new 52 week highs? If the housing market is in shambles, clearly these stocks would reflect that.

The reality is not as grim as everyone thinks. The economy is doing good, save the armies of people on food stamps. Aside from the unskilled, America’s productivity has never been higher. Our balance sheets are great and companies are expanding overseas, catering to a burgeoning middle class in China, who needs basic necessities as we did 120 years ago. A middle class is being formed and KMB stands to do a lot of business.

But none of that matters during market panics. We are intently fixed on the worst case scenario because, at the end of the day, we’re all pessimists, subject to decay and extinction. Exactly 11 years ago, I wiped out my personal trading account due to greed and fear. I will elaborate on this subject later on today.

Look at the bright side and put yourself in a position to withstand the worst case sceanrio.

My positions in PEP, KMB, LNCE, WM, WNR and YELP are up.

The PPT has not registered an OS signal for 2012. So, according to the laws of mathematics, we can still head lower, before we get a bounce. However, based upon the laws of science, which are at times subject to interpretation and creative license, we are long overdue a rally.

The charts always look the worst just prior to mountain sized rallies to the upside.

With all of the reversals taking place, coupled with the firming up of the commodity sector, we should trade up today. But we won’t. We’re too jaded and scared to risk our skin. We see Spain’s stock market at 2003 lows and Italian yields shooting higher, then gander at the Dow north of 12,500 and piss in our pants. America has become a nation of cowards and Europe is a continent filled with incompetent potato brained perverts.

There is nothing at all redeeming about the tape, with exception to big divvy mega caps, like KMB, CHD, PEP and GIS (seasonality wins again). I am on a buyers strike and will reserve my 20% cash position for better times. A time when men can roam the streets freely again, pissing in the wind, kicking animals in the face for the getting in the way.

FREEBIE: Stats on TYP (3x Tech bear) – currently flagged as OVERBOUGHT inside PPT.

Instead of going to cash, do old man stocks, like GIS, KMB and CHD, make for a better alternative? Or, will those old man stocks become a “source of funds” for hedge funds in distress?

The truth is, it’s all a guess. If anyone declares to know what the government is cooking, they are dumber than you first suspected. The playing field has never been even and the rules always change. The best thing we can do is live to fight another day. If that means forgoing some kickass inflection point returns, so be it.

During the course of managing money, over 15 years professionally, I’ve seen the worst blow ups turn into disasters when people pressed their bets. Sometimes the best thing to do, pardon the cliche, is to slow the fuck down and trade small when turmoil is in the air.

For some of you, buying calls, instead of having massive equity exposure, is a better bet. For others, dollar cost averaging comes into play now, providing you have cash reserves.

In summary, we’re not done going lower, unless of course we are. Stocks go up until they don’t and they knife lower until they reverse higher. The one thing you can control is the level of risk and losses you are willing to endure. Let that be your guide when deciding an investment thesis.

This can very well be 2008, with all of its trimmings and disastrous results. To hedge against that, keep a short leash and be skeptical.

I am your new host. I go by the name of HORATIO CLAWHAMMER.

I once controlled this site, back in the good old days of 2008-2009; but was quickly dispatched to the cellars at The House of Fly, where I’ve been in containment for “crimes against humanity.” But I’ve escaped now and stand before you to enjoy the splendour that is the new and improved, death spiral to zero, bear market.

My research staff has just finished doing the numbers, adding up all of the liabilities against assets and we’ve come to a fair value price target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average: $00.00.

I bid you farewell for now and look forward to seeing all of you lose largess sums of money, in your feeble attempts at capitalism and pursuit of happiness.

Good day.

The entire basic material space is off today; but the carnage is most horrific in silver and coals.

“Silvers and coals. Silver and coals. Oh how I dream of silver and coals.” It sounds like a X-mas song.

My take on today’s tape, thus far: complete horseshit.

If you are lucky enough to be in some old man (CHD, PEP, LNCE)/young whipper snapper (GRPN, ZNGA, P, YELP) stocks, you are making money. Everything in between is plain ol’ vanilla gay.

PREPARE TO BE ZEROHEDGED BEFORE THE CLOSING BELL. This market cannot withstand the selling barrage that is sure to come, as the bulls do not have the tenacity, nor the fervor, to stay long overnight into the European mystery soup.

My favorites are YELP, TRIP, Z and ZNGA. However, there are others worth a look, based on valuation.

ZNGA, JIVE, DANG, QNST and MM have been battered the most over the past month. Based solely on quarterly revenue growth, QPSA, GRPN, WWWW, INSP, YOKU and Z are booking triple digit gains, with YELP not too far behind.

YNDX has revenue growth of 51% and a FPE of 17. For what it’s worth, Chinese burrito DATE has growth of 84% and FPE of just 13. And if you ever wanted to get into BIDU, now might be your chance, with the stock down 20% over the past month and a FPE of 19.

The market is real hard here, especially with the turmoil in Europe. Should things get back to normal, this is most likely where the hot money will gravitate to: high growth story stocks that effect how we communicate with one another, on a global scale.

As organic specimens, you have less than 50 years of quality life while on earth. After perishing, your body will become fertilizer for my tomatoes. You might as well try to make the best out of this life while here– and quick dicking around with half-ass ideas, pressed forward with zero energy.

Le Fly has the energy of 10,000 men and utilizes his robotic-like brain to create scenarios where winship happens. Speaking of which, I’ve heard rumors of my demise, through the grapevines of bitch, disseminated by small goblin-like creatures, with small dicks and big tits. I want you to pay attention to what I am about to tell you because it is a secret.

“The Fly” has never lost a single war. The set-backs he has endured are nothing more than pit-stops, on the way to triumph, a handicap for you spastic fucktards trying to compete. With regards to the market, there is no doubt in my mind, with a little time and magic, I will conquer and vanquish my enemies, similar to the grotesque ongoings over at GRPN today.

In summary, do not get excited over the futures and possibility of a rally today. Europe is still a problem and we’re more likely to give it all back than sustain gains. Old man stocks and cash reigns supreme, alongside large doses of GRPN.

Should Greece leave the euro, losses are likely to amount to north of $400 billion. If you thought the market was acting gay for a mere $2 billion hickey at JPM, wait until every single bank in Europe goes belly up. Naturally, the contagion will be outrageous and the financial landscape, as we know it, will need to be “re-authored.”

See, because of the severity of this scenario, it is my belief it will not happen. If you know it, so do the ball-jugglars at the ECB. If you are betting on downside trading action here, in the teeth of really bad news, you are playing with fire.

Why?

Because the news suggests the market should be 6,000 points lower than where it is now. We will easily head back to the 2009 lows, amidst revolution and martial law in every western country on Earth. All of this niceties, AND MORE, will be available for your entertainment, until an M1a1 tank lobs shells into your bullshit living room.

This is not a garden variety problem with ordinary consequences to be had. Because this is the end game, the ultimate bet, it’s literally all or nothing.

As you were.

It’s useless to try to guess what the market will do tomorrow or the day after. There is always a news event to save the day: you know it and I know it. Regardless, I have grown weary of this routine. Instead of fighting the meat grinder, frankly, I’m inclined to dive into it, just for the sake of finality.

Nothing is working but old men stocks and that is depressing. All of my big ideas have turned into shitsicles, topped off with a fucked up review from the homo-hammers at Yelp. By the way, this article cannot be exported to Stocktwits for its obscene vulgarities.The tender folks over there have communicated uneasiness about my verbiage and would appreciate to exclude their corporate clients from the ongoings of this house.

The people of iBankCoin are barbaric in that regard, accustomed to using foul language and spitting on homeless people, as well as using the word “bitch” when it is deemed appropriate.

In closing, I welcome the meat grinder and spit on you, regardless of your position in life. I haven’t sold anything; but it’s not necessary, frankly. With 20% cash and another 25% in stocks like KMB, LNCE, PEP, CHD and GIS, there is little reason for me to agitate about the process. I am only interested in the conclusion.

Greek-German spreads are at new post-bailout highs. Spanish yields are at 6.3% and Italian yields are quickly closing in on 6%. In short, contagion is the theme and everything stems from Greece. Should they leave the euro, estimated losses can be as high as $400 billion, a sum that cannot be absorbed at this time.

Safe haven countries, like the UK, Germany, US, Norway and Austria are beneficiaries, at least in the bond market, to the dislocations in the PIGS. You’d think these bumbling fools in Europe would come to some sort of agreement, in order to save their own asses. But for the moment, they seem to be headed towards calamity.

Bear markets raids can be very unsettling and they always feel like an eternity. When markets fall, on what seems to be “the worst possible scenario,” it’s easy to get shaken out or even coerced to get short. The only problem with getting short into the teeth of a decline is the ever increasing chance that policy makers will intervene to bid markets higher.

This has been a winning bet for more than 4 years now.

Here are the scenarios that we face right now.

Greece exits euro.
Contagion spreads quickly to Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland.
A run on PIGS banks begins, only stemmed by a “bank holiday,” where depositors are forced to keep money in banks.
Markets fall by 20%.

The more likely scenario is this one.

Greece agrees to new terms with Troika.
Yields come in on PIGS, at least temporarily.
Markets respond favorably, sending stocks +10% to new highs.

If you are sick and tired of having to deal with the same fucking problems, join the party. I can tell you from first hand knowledge that well-to-do investors abhor this market and rather invest in Sotheby’s auctions– than fuck around with the opaqueness of stocks–which are subject to the caprices of a few bank and central bank executives. Although stocks offer phenomenal liquidity and potential returns, if done with skill, the allure of Wall Street has been sullied to the point where it’s almost comical to believe long term investors stand a chance. Now more than ever, you have to be nimble and remember that living to fight another day is much better than dying namelessly on a battlefield strewn with the lost hopes and dreams of overzealous speculators.

I think it’s fair to say 2011 was a less than stellar year for the majority of traders. When the calendar turned to 2012, everything changed. From Jan to late March, we were roaring with guns blazing. People who got in the way were kicked in the teeth, chastised thricely, and relegated to tar pits where they’d be lit aflame. Since April, the markets have been chiseling away at us, almost in a mocking fashion, dropping momentum stocks into murderholes.

There’s an old saying that applies: stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.

The bad news that plagued us throughout 2011 is back and badder than ever. It borders on the obscene, frankly. On top of that, we have renewed worries in the US banking industry, thanks to JPM and our largest provider of natural gas, CHK, seems to be heading down the path of Enron.

Commodities have been hell, while the dollar and treasuries have been ripping higher. The classic deflationary vortex trade aka “The Hugh Hendry” is stronger than ever. The main question that needs to be answered is this:

Being that we know the Federal Reserve is very much interested in staving off any semblance of deflation, give the recent news and BOND market reaction (fuck stocks), will Chairman Bernanke initiate QE3 (kill the bears for good version) this June?

Now I know some of you will doubt the strength of the Fed’s pimp-hand. I don’t know why. The Bearded Clam has proven, over and over again, that he is willing to fuck poor people for the sake of helping out stock market players. The economy is not ripping and deflation is still the danger, 4 years after the crisis began.

To summarize my point: if Europe is unable to get their shit together by the Fed’s June meeting, QE3 will begin. If, by chance, the homosexuals in Europe figure out a way to deal with Greece and all of the other shit that haunts them, stocks will go up. In other words, no matter what, by the end of June, stocks are going way the fuck higher.

Enjoy the month of May, bears, for it will be remembered as the eve of your most unfortunate demise.

Although I only ended down 0.35% for the session, the conviction of mean-spirited devil-dogs have boiled my eggs beyond reproach.

During this evenings repast, I intend to drink from the bottles of vine, nourishing myself with the nectar of the Gods, in an effort to revitalize my mind, body and soul for the battles ahead.

This message is sent to you with good intentions, but not meant as a form of financial advice– or an attempt to illuminate the shroud that cleverly covers all of those who are trading. I am only interested in bitter revenge, plainly. It will not be enough to recapture lost coin and repute. Someone must lose. In order to continue doing what I do on a daily basis, a sacrifice must be made. The blood of the sinful will sustain the tree of winship for generations to come.

This is far from over. As a matter of fact, we’ve only yet begun.

Needless to say, if we are going to comport ourselves in gentlemanly manners, QE3 needs to be provided to the American populous, especially the well-to-do portion of society. I realize some of you blue collared types hate QE because you think it makes gasoline go up. But that’s a bald faced lie. The truth is, the higher the gas the better for states. Did you know your state is banking insane coin off every gallon of gas you purchase? Naturally, they want gas to be expensive, in order to tax the shit out of you.

QE3 will be fantastic, specifically for me, as it will reduce traffic on the road by idling all of the poor fuckers at home, due to onerous “travel expenses.” If you are worried about the specter of a $100 tomato, do not fear, small plebs. The government is liberal with food stamps and will be more than happy to provide sustenance for you and your fat family.

The market is weakening here; but I don’t think we will give it all back. The underpinnings in tech are too strong today. It would take some sort of news item to rattle people out of the chips. As a matter of fact, the chips should be bought on dips, specifically NXPI.

Chips are leading the way, after solid NVDA results. And, let’s not forget, last night INTC said business was great and they didn’t know what the fuck was wrong with CSCO–because business in Europe is going swimmingly.

My favorite chip play is NXPI.

Well, it looks like the crisis is over and we can all get back to throwing fistfuls of cocaine into violently spinning fans again. Or, this might be some sick rouse, designed to lure people back into the trap for proper execution. Either way, I am listening to the album featured below, dressed to the nines, clean shaven and ready for anything.

JPM just sucked the life out of the market. There is no need to offer flowery writing this morning, no metaphors or analogies. You will have to accept the bad news and move on with your lives. For some of you that means eating sandwiches and hoping this will pass soon. For others, today’s tape is a fine opportunity to go for a spin in the FAZmobile.

I cannot fathom a scenario where banks can do well in the short term. Until we get more clarity on this JPM story, avoid the banks like you would avoid pig fat sushi.

It looks like a -1% day and that’s too bad because European yields are somewhat stable. There was every reason to believe the market was setting up for a reflex rally, after weeks of somber, cocksucking, bullshit. But now it’s all over and death itself is knocking on the front door.

Are you going to open it?

Naturally, I anticipate heinous losses in my accounts today, with exception to WNR. Crack spreads are almost $30 and the refineries are being accumulated by giant hedge funds, whose goal in life is to be greedy and kill people for profit.

Regrettably, Mrs. Fly has plans for me today, which entails accompanying her to some event that borders on the ridiculous and lives in the nonsensical. Nevertheless, I am a generous man, with both time and money. Therefore, it is my duty to shed my owlish wisdom into her life, with the hopes that one day my generosity can save lives or inspire others to build space cannons, designed and purposed for egregious offensive measures.

In short, watch Spanish and Italian yields. It’s my hunch JPM’s fate is tethered to the “credit worthiness” of the club med states. Therefore, and this goes without saying, and I say this with the boldest of stentorian tones: they’re pretty much fucked for another $10 billion plus.

Futures are down 13 on this news.

Here is a link to the emergency conference call.

or, read WSJ live blogging summary of the call.

UPDATE: Apparently, this position was profitable at one point but got too big and was poorly monitored, reviewed and constructed. It was designed to hedge the company against credit.

UPDATE II: Here is live link to Bloomberg tv coverage of the situation.

UPDATE III: ZH has the background to this story, with some other dire predictions, such as $20 billion in losses.”

UPDATE IV: Was the JPM News leaked? 13,800 JPM 41 puts traded today, an outrageous amount indeed.

Go ahead and short Europe, Spain slices your body in half, up 4% for the day. Would you prefer the haven of safety that is The United Steaks of America? Sure, buy some.

YOU GET YOUR DICKS CHOPPED OFF.

Would you prefer to bet against stocks, through the explicit and gluttonous purchases of TZA,TVIX or VXX–LMAOMGROFLCOPTER??!!!

YOU GET YOUR DICKS CHOPPED OFF.

Hey, I got an idea. Why don’t you play the Facebook and buy some Yelp?

Do I need to say it?

I lost 0.65% today because that’s what I do, pal. I am a magician. I take the money and make that shit disappear. POOF!

Now I’ve been very patient with the market and have even started to consult my Voodoo Physician again, who, by the way, is telling me to make human sacrifices, as “it is the only way.” But I need a break here. I will not beg for stocks to go higher, because I am above that and really harbor deep seated resentment towards my occupation.

INSTEAD, I fucking demand stocks trade higher and immediately.

Starting with tonight’s sunset, “The Fly” is back in his 1980′s stretch limo, throwing jumping jacks at people on the outside. I won’t even look out of the windows when I do it too, so it’s russian roulette for you fucking pedestrians. Who knows, maybe I’ll get lucky and hit Jamie Dimon with a pack of lady fingers.

Okay, it all boils down to this: I am buying even more YELP on this dip. I added to the position today and have begun buying options too. I have a bowling ball with STOPPELMAN’S face on it. That nerdy fucker better smash earnings this quarter, else it’s off to the padded room for yours truly again, dressed in the finest sleeveless dinner jacket money can buy.

Right now I have been reduced to “box watcher,” complainer of all things to do with stocks and bonds. I find myself wasting time, talking to people about “how stupid” this market is, only because it is not behaving in the manner of a top hatted gentleman. Truth be told, I’ve made a fantastic living managing money. It has afforded me with much needed currency and freedom to make my own schedule. Looking at my behavior objectively, I find myself to be sinful, ingratitude on a biblical scale.

There are people out there making 10 bucks an hour and I am complaining about the superfluities of my gagillionaire clients, whose unparalleled greed makes them pester me for more wins?

PFFFFFF.

That’s life, pal. Get over it.

YELP needs to trade the fuck higher and fast. The idea of this stock closing down on an up day is hateful to me. As you can tell, Le Fly is somewhat preoccupied with mental anguish. All roads lead to violence and that’s a bad thing, I think?!

Okay, I’ve wasting far too much time with you mustached weirdos today, pornography collectors, infants stuck in old/fat bodies.

Back to box watching.

AAPL is your tell and the fate of the market, at least in the near term, is tethered to the price action of today’s tape. It’s bad enough that we were unable to rally yesterday, despite green in Europe. To not participate in the rally is equal to saying WE are the problem and not Europe. It makes you think for a second.

WAIT A MINUTE! CSCO missed– and earnings have been murderholes for a wide array of momentum plays.

Maybe we are the problem?

Hmmm.

Let me be emphatic: WE MUST RALLY BY NO LESS THAN 150 points today.

Even though Obama is the devil himself, he will likely be reelected because by the time the election is near, this market is going to be north of 15-fucking-thousand–leaving skid marks on 75% of you ham and eggers on Twitter. Stock markets elect people, not citizens.

Generally speaking, “The Fly” always wins, especially when the skies open up on him, striking his person with bolts of lightening.

Spain nationalized Bankia, reversing their promise of not assisting their failed institutions. I view this positively, as it means they are taking the UK approach to ring-fencing their fucked banks: making them disappear. I am not so sure about Greece; but Spain and Italy will be funded by the ECB, until Germany goes broke. By the time that happens, “The Fly” will be living in his space station, permanently, firing his Space Orbital Cannon (SOC) at your houses from the Van Allen belt.

We should bounce today, led by commodities. It’s do or die for real today. If we don’t take 1% back from the deviant fiends within the next 7 hours, it’s a bag of dicks for investors tomorrow.

I descend upon you with owlish wisdom. I’m the Ajax of this finance/blogging/space alien magician (SAM) game. Bet against me and lose your house.

Top Picks: EXK, AG, WNR, MTW, YELP

A few years ago, I did a series of cartoons, like the one featured above, for fun.

Today was the day when we had to rally. It was do or die and now we are going to die.  For the love of killer infectious diseases in Africa, EUROPE WAS UP TODAY and we managed our end of the bargain like homo-hammered Greeks.

This is extremely distressing. You have no idea.

Throughout the day I conducted myself with dignity, repositioning away from old goat fucker to young gun slinger. But that didn’t matter and neither does PCLN and CSCO.

We are positively doomed. There is no hope and there is no tomorrow.

Enjoy your funerals.

NOTE: I made 0.3% today.

If the anti-bailout fuckers from Greece can’t form a government, logic dictates it’s business as usual, with German hands up the asses of those lazy mutton fuckers.

My cash position is 20%, thanks to sales. But I upped my risk profile through the purchases of WNR, EXK, AG and MTW.

Don’t hate on me, fucker. I’m just going for the jugular, trying to win big, as it is my right and custom to do so.

That’s right, I’m buying fucking cranes in China, via MTW.

The truth is, I have a death wish. I laugh at insolvency, while feverishly drinking excessive amounts of ambrosia, swallowing lamb shanks save the fucking mint jelly. See, I’m in this car made from dynamite sticks and it’s getting hot in the cabin. I’m gonna drive this bitch until the wheels fall off, throwing bowling balls at you pikers on Wall.

Go make some cold calls. “The Fly” will be in his time machine, changing the future to better comport with his position.

I sold out of 75% of KMB, LNCE, ABV, PEP, WM, GIS and bought size in EXK and AG.

My cash position is 25%.

UPDATE: added to WNR

UPDATE II: bought MTW

Greece gets bailed out; but they don’t. The Spaniards are next; but they’re doing okay. And, the Italians are in crisis mode; but they have turned the ship around and are doing just fine. I challenge you to try to make sense out of all this, then invest your life savings on that thesis.

Pardon the cliche, but this is the gift that keeps giving. No wonder retail wants no part of this market. It is a lose-lose situation for the unwashed pleb, the man-dog with a brain the size of a cashew. Nevertheless, I am mandated by my ingrate clients to figure it all out: with a snap of their cigar stained fingers, I am ordered to figure out the puzzle.

Remember when I said (last night) there was no contagion? Well that has changed over night, as sovereign yields for the shittiest countries in Europe are soaring this morning. Apparently, the euro is going to $00.00, taking oil, silver, gold and California with it. The incredibly morose part about this whole process of investor elimination is this “crisis” we are enduring now will be nothing more than a bookmark in 3 months. The central bankers will find another solution and the markets will blast higher, doubly fucking the people who sold due to fears of financial collapse.

Well, it looks like The PPT will likely flag its first OVERSOLD signal since late 2011 today. With that, based upon our correlation tools, I can tell you silver and gold miners are likely going to be the best investments coming out of the pit. That sector has been lit aflame, by men clad in pink pants made from velcro.

Barbarism on a medieval scale has befallen the Ron Paul crowd.

Nonetheless, if the markets ever go up again it will be because of a cheap money solution, which is inherently inflationary– always good for precious metals. Both EXK and AG are of great interest to me as we delve into the lower tranches of this fucking tape.

NOTE: The dicksuckers over at GMCR were right! Weather trends dictated hot versus cold beverage consumption. SODA smashed numbers and the stock is up $5.

The last time The PPT flagged Oversold was 12/8/11 when the SPY was at $122. We are significantly above that level, despite the carnage, regardless of how poorly AAPL has been trading. As of the close of trade today, we are not oversold. Normally, I do not give away that information for free, since it is a membership service. However, we are living in interesting times and wanted to give you a full view of what the market can be setting up to do.

Starting with tomorrow’s sell off, I am giving the market 7-10 days for a full rebound. Unlike past euro events, this one will not drag on forever. I believe swift action will be taken. You are not the only one with something to lose here. Think about the bankster exposure to sovereign debt.

Thus far, contagion is not a topic, as Italian and Spanish yields are muted. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen tomorrow.

You should not be leveraged long like me. I tend to make bold moves at odd times, often a little too early or late for my own good. When it’s all said and done, I’ll get it done, but not without expense. If I had a life expectancy (Le Fly is immortal), I’d be dead by now, resting in a pineapple coffin, from all of the HORSESHIT I put myself through. The market is a living organism, subject to the elements of man, contaminated by his stupidity. If you are bulking up on basic materials or high beta earnings plays, you are gambling and would be better off fighting sharks with chum wrapped around your fucking face.

Nothing is working but big dividend, big market cap, grandpa stocks. If you look at my 110% long position, you will find it to be deceptively conservative, with 50% of it yielding almost 3%, up 1% over the past 2 weeks. In other words, the grandpa stocks are a form of cash for me, until my risk appetite increases.

As of now, I am heavy on talking shit; but my actions are far more subdued. Don’t GMCR yourself out of the game and remember to live to fight another day. Once you are out, you’re fucking out. I can’t tell you how many times I missed out on huge gains because I didn’t manage my risk profile properly. When the market is back into beat-down-a-bear-to-the-skelton mode, you will know it– and have plenty of time to get in.

Here is what is going to happen:

The fucktards who just got elected will find religion and tow the line. If not, they will be kicked out of the EU and Spain and Italy will enjoy strong ring fencing to support their borrowing costs via the ECB. If you insist on betting on disaster, I will adamantly bet against you. It’s true, the market has been tough; but let’s not listen to men dressed like cows, declaring all is lost.  There is nothing extraordinary about the market action. As a point in fact, it is behaving as it should, more than ever.

Companies with bad earnings are being deflated, while winners keep wining. Old man stocks are regarded as safe havens and small cappers are volatile.

Gold and silver are horrible and TLT is on the cusp of $120 again. It is clear to me, the threat to the system is not Zimbabwe style inflation, but the specter of the economy falling into a deflationary vortex. Because of that, you can bank on the Fed providing a bid for this market. Now if you are in the camp who believes such a bid will only present itself AFTER a calamitous market decline, maybe down to 10,000 Dow, I believe you do not know the Bearded Clam very well.

He’s gonna get you bitches, starting with tomorrows trade.

NOTE: I am 110% long.

Today’s market calamity is a Tale of Two portfolios for me. There is AAPL, YELP, WNR, CPST, ANR, VCLK and NXPI in one corner, getting their fucking dicks chopped off. And then there is GIS, KMB, LNCE, WM, PEP–totally not giving a shit about Greek communism or euro collapse.

It was outlined earlier this month, based upon the tips given from urinal shadows and seasonality trends provided by the engine that could, inside of The PPT: grandpa stocks tend to outperform in the month of May.

It is in my nature to take on risk. That’s what I do, for good and for worse. However, I am eternally grateful that I decided against my worser judgement and put half of my assets in those stocks. While I am still losing money, it could be much worse.

Where do we go from here?

I believe you start nibbling today. Spanish and Italian yields are going down, not up, leading me to believe the market is accepting the prospect that Greece will leave the euro. Once they do that, both Italy and Spain will be protected by a euorbond, leaving Greece to fuck themselves and create more ruins, sending the markets to new highs.

That’s my 2 cents.

NOTE: I sold out of P

The Original Buttfuckers are a ruinous bunch. They should have never been permitted to enter the league of civilized nations and would be better off under the auxiliary command of Turkey. Having said that, the problem in Europe isn’t going away, no matter how much I wish it would. On the eyes of Italians, nothing can redress my dark feelings towards every single European living in the countries that represent letters in the PIGS acronym.

Clearly, peace hasn’t worked; give war a chance.

If these bumbling morons would attack one another, like in the “good old days,” I am sure we wouldn’t have to worry about German austerity versus French spending.

As an investor, the process of having to endure the European Union is absurd. It rattles me to my core. It keeps me up at night, plotting against whole continents, configuring space orbital cannons to vaporize entire towns within minutes.

ATTENTION BEARS: I’ve not lost faith in America’s ability to teach the Europeans what they need to learn. We have endless resources of black op teams, who can murder these uncooperative forces inside of these barbaric countries, whenever needed. As an American, I take pride in the fact that when we don’t like other governments, we topple them. Our good friends, “The Banksters,” do not like their stock prices going lower and neither do I.

Cheers.

During the afternoon, even my WNR reversed and charged higher. I was partially chagrined by the semis, especially my position in NXPI. After all, they smashed numbers and life is good for the friendly folks at NXPI, always invited to the finest and most elegant affairs hosted by KKR.

After the bell, crickets could be heard around the office, as the sentiment shifted from “wow, we just dodged a fucking errant cannon ball” to “I want more tomorrow.”

Well, be patient dear friends, for we all shall have more tomorrow, except for the bears of course. We will suckle and take company with great whores and suckle some more. Fistfuls of cocaine tossed carelessly into rapidly spinning fans (the metal kind). The markets will massage our temples and violently skin the shorts for their barbarism.

Things will get better: just wait and see.

In the modern era, I consider StockTwits and Twitter to be the dominate message boards for the markets, places where investors get together and talk shit about stocks. To StockTwits credit, they curate their feed, eliminating scammers and bottom feeders from defiling their stream.

But the over-arching theme every where I look, every where I listen and read, is pessimism. The Hugh Hendrys, Great Roubinis, Meredith Whitneys are very popular indeed. And it’s not because they are very smart, which they all are. To that point, people like to hear them speak because they are bearshitters. There is a reason why Zerohedge is so popular, aside from his incredible work ethic and pristine content. Tyler is loved because he wants the world to end– and he wants that shit to happen immediately.

iBankCoin is the last bastion, the safe-haven of safe-havens, where the speech is free and the bulls roam with their balls swinging in the wind. Aside from the occasional Bleier/Caine assault on good hard working oil and gas personnel, iBC remains defiant in the face of overwhelming bearshitterness.

I just pulled up the StockTwits app and purveyed the “Trending” stocks stream and guess what I saw?

Answer: You fuckers are talking shit again. How can the markets crash when everyone is expecting it?

This new generation of investors have been tainted by the collapse of 2008. These young players really, really suck dick– because they all want to call the next crash. Everyone wants notoriety, calling out companies and combing over books, as if these C student gym rats were PWC audit partners.

Please. Relax, it’s only an Al Qaeda bomb. Clearly, you are in over your head. Stop embarrassing yourself, for the sake of your future children who will learn about your indigent legacy.

Starting out I dealt with the crashes of 1997, 1998, 2000-2002 and I still managed to get 200% long into the 2003 rally. You’re never going to make BIG money betting against stocks. That is a fact. There will be pockets of weakness, in between rip your face off rallies. To believe that “this time is different” is always a suckers bet. By betting against progress and prosperity, via clamoring for stock market disaster, that’s exactly what you are doing.

I will bet against that bubble every single time.

By no means am I boasting. From my vantage point, Senor Tropicana has a lot of work to do, none of which requires chest pounding or early celebrations.

IT’S NOT A GAME ANYMORE.

I said it yesterday and I will say it now: the European move AWAY from austerity is good. The fucking Tea Parties of the world can fuck themselves. Trying to be austere when the economy is collapsing is fucking juvenile. The arch-fiends in Germany need to stop worrying about inflation and understand deflation is the real risk. Once the Europeans embrace their printing presses, world markets will fucking soar.

Spain is up 1.3% and I’m going to slap someone in the face with a hot slice of pizza today. The world is as it should be.

Top picks: KMB, YELP, PEP

THIS IS WHAT I WANT YOU TO DO, IF YOU HAVEN’T DONE SO ALREADY: Sign up to iBankCoin or start a blog here. Contribute! Also, you can link up your twitter handle and we will list you on sidebar. Very soon the GAMIFICATION of iBankCoin will begin and you will want to be a part of it.

“The Euro is going to fucking collapse under the weight of heavy Greek lounge chairs, vacationing in Skopelos.”

So both France and Greece are moving away from austerity. Explain to me how that is worse for stocks, aside from the fact that German brinksmanship stands in the way?

Stock are knifing lower now because of uncertainty. This is the fucking story that just won’t die. It’s like the boogieman, God damn it, Michael Myers in all of his pomp and grandeur. Shares of Apple are down 16 of 18 days, or something like that. For what? Law of large numbers, plush with $112 billion in cash? I can’t think of a safer haven.

Nevertheless, the men wrapped in burlap will have a lovely sleep tonight, dreaming of nightmarish scenarios, all surrounding around the idea of large capital losses, margin calls and outright death and mayhem. These people are sick and deranged, well deserving of electric shock treatment. Don’t bother poking sticks at me, in an effort to agitate. I am already as mad as can be, heavily long, albeit grandpa stocks, into the teeth of yet another hazard.

Time and effort is what I stand to lose, time and effort. It took a lot of time and effort to get to where I am today. And, it will take even more time to regain all of the fucking money I stand to lose tomorrow. One way or another, I will come out on top, as I have always managed to do. But this shit is testing the outer limits of my controlled insanity to the point of no return.

Having said all of that, I am sure Ben Bernanke is watching the action, whilst smoking his blunts filled with marijuana, declaring “watch, son, I’m gonna get those bitches real good this time.”

Nothing has changed, just the curtains on the living room window.

VirnetX is a patent troll company, armed with some of the best attorneys money can buy. They are claiming ownership of the Secure Domain Names/Registry, in other words: every time you make a purchase via iTunes, VHC expects to get a cut. Their patents were recently validated by a Federal Judge, who ruled against Microsoft, awarding VHC $200 million. They have open lawsuits with a number of companies, including AAPL, pursuing the framework of royalty whoring established by QCOM many years ago.

One of their open cases against CSCO, AAPL, NEC and Aastra pertain to the core products of each company (think iTunes) and amount to $160 billion in sales, ANNUALLY. In layman’s terms, every time someone accesses iTunes via their iPhone or iPad, it violates VHC’s patents. Pretty sick, huh?

Regarding valuation: The company has $60 mill in cash, no debt, with a small burn. Bulls who know the story say the settlements to come may amount to over $8 billion. The bears who are being flamed in the stock point to other patent trolls, like CEVA and TSRA, who shot higher early, only to come crashing down later. Whether this is the next QCOM is anyone’s guess. It’s too hard to predict how a judge might rule. Nevertheless, the stock has been working and is clearly being recognized by investors as a story to watch.

Related: Inventors declaration.
vhc

Pardon the brevity of this post. There are people who know the story much better than I do and are welcomed to leave bullet points in the comments section.

Also Related: fuck, fuck, fuck! (note left by yours truly in The PPT many moons ago. There are 26 pages of notes in there.)

Inside of The PPT, I set up custom indexes that represent the market. I will post the 3 month charts for you to bear witness to the carnage that has befallen the market in recent weeks. Oh how I long for the days when AAPL would go +10 and the Dow refreshed my somber demeanor with a +40.

Commodity stocks

Raw Commodities

Tech

GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price)–totally unreasonable.

Financials

Foreign Stocks

Social Networkers

This is a work of art, sweet molasses on top of hominy for the ears. Enjoy.

NOTE: Mandatory weekend viewing.

On principal, I refuse to use anything but extra virgin olive oil and I never fill my tank with premium gas, only regular. When at home, I only listen to classical music and I’ve never used foul language around my wife and kids. Generally speaking, I don’t like answering my phone, but will reply to an email within seconds. I prefer Bordeaux wine over all others, especially from the year 2005 and I absolutely hate Pinot Noir. I only drink Earl Gray tea, but will refuse if it contains any sugar. I will only drink my tea with honey and a dash of milk (no homo).

Upwards of 90% of my wardrobe is dry clean only.

In the House of Fly, the food is organic and a regular snack consists of almonds and dried cherries.

I wake up every morning at 6:48 am, without failure, and my favorite composer of all time is Phillip Glass. I especially prefer Symphony no.9, mvt II, and play it in my home with great repetition.

I don’t sleep much, as I am either too concerned with the markets or reading a book. I rarely read anything but classics. At the moment, I am stuck on page 700 of Bleak House by Charles Dickens. Oh, and I don’t buy paper books anymore, just on the iPad.

My point: I am a creature of habit, highly disciplined in a number of ways. When I make up my mind about something, nothing can deter me from completion. These same behavioral traits can be noticed in my investing methods. Throughout the years you’ve noticed my stubbornness in FTK, MVIS, HANS, BWLD, GSVS, WNR and most recently CPST and YELP translate into unmitigated or negotiated winship. However, the times are changing and the mood has become exceedingly dour.

There was once a time when nothing could stop me, not even time itself. However, over the past few months, Le Fly has been plagued by a number of nuisances, most readily seen here on iBC through my investment malfunctions. In real life, there have been some truly unbelievable things gnawing away at my soul, attempting to sap my energy and vanquish my person from existence.

HOWEVER, let it be known, I shall not bend to the caprices of some asshole “star God” and will fight this cosmic curse thrust upon me until I am dead. On the hair of Hector, I will not negotiate my surrender, under any circumstances. This might very well come at a great expense to Mrs. Fly, who grows weary of the stock exchange and how it refuses to comport to my demands.

Let it be known, my path is being set, trail-blazed with the fire set by my soul. If you dare to follow me, be sure to wrap yourself in a fireproof cloak. This path is not for the faint of heart or weakest of skins.

The jobs numbers were bad because we are repeating last year. This is almost identical to the fuckery that was 2011, only this time it will be sprearheaded by the fucking faggots in Spain. Why don’t you pussies revolt already?

Expect the data to get progressively worse, leading up to the Fed coming in and raping all shorts in broad daylight, with one of their fucked up plans. Then, miraculously, as the election nears, the data will improve. We will enjoy a terrific Q4 rally, as if this shit never happened.

Back in the old days, when a stock broke the $100 threshold, the shares were split 2 for 1. Only a handful of stocks kept their share prices at obnoxious prices, most aligned with the Great Fucktard himself: Warren Buffet. Do you know why companies don’t split their shares anymore?

Answer: because they don’t give a shit about the retail investor. The retail investor is no longer an integral part of the market place. They have been eviscerated by trading robots, cordoned off into corrupt areas of the market, such as 3x ETF’s. Gone are the days when you could value a company on its FCF and FPE.

Now to my point. The majority of people that I meet in real life are flawed animals, depraved beings with infected minds. Naturally, the internet is no different. I would never walk into someone’s home and throw meatloaf against their wall– and insult the caretaker or host of such a dwelling. Many of you are quite comfortable in flaunting your vagrant behavior by trying to rub salt in my wounds, declaring “I told you so” and gleefully walking about my website like a happy homo in the east village.

That’s where you are wrong.

This shit here is NOT for your entertainment. I am not the jackass clown in the glass box, waiting to be dunked into the water below. I WILL FUCKING KILL YOU, rip apart your limbs (legs, arms, head, chest cavity)–crush your bones into dust. All of you will be banned, all of you. I have already banned over 800 people, creatures of the blue lagoon, perverts, men addled with chemical imbalances. I have no problem carting you off to the crematory, so don’t fuck with me.

On a more pleasant note, I am being smashed like an accordion today, played by some monkey in a small Italian village. My WNR has been chopped and I’d rather not discuss YELP anymore. I am, without a doubt, the angriest man in the world.

The truth of the matter is, I am cosmically cursed. I haven’t made any sacrifices to the Gods for over 6 months and they are punishing me for it, in spades.

The jargon left in the comments section is repulsive and regrettably puported by small minded goat fuckers, who have seemingly escaped my lash.

The mainspring of this post is to serve as a reminder that I have a murderous rage inside of me and will make you pay your “fair share” for disturbing me on a day when my largest position was down 10% on good news. This is the quarter to accumulate Yelp, as they close in on profitability.

You are without top hat.

Tomorrow’s jobs numbers will set the tone. My mood is dark, so I am not optimistic about my prospects in the near term.

The curse needs to be lifted.

After all of the drama, the relief of an acceptable earnings release coupled with a muted response in the share price, I am having my head handed to me after all, long YELP. The stock traded up this morning; but I noted in conversations with “The Devil”, something was awry. The stock was trading odd and a big move was on the horizon. Literally, it could have gone either way. Today’s decline doesn’t mean anything other than the fact that sellers showed up and buyers are non-existent. I know that sounds a little too simple; but this story is young and the shareholder base is fickle.

I’ve had my share of blow-ups, several over the past few years.This 8-10% drop in YELP, coupled with the fact that my other positions are flat to down equates to a -2.25% day. That might not sound like a “blow up” to many of you; but -2.25% days are not welcomed around these parts any longer. This was supposed to be the year of flawless winship, accompanied by cocaine dragons and chest pounding gorillas. Instead I get milquetoast. I shot higher by 20% during the first month of the year and slowly but surely I am giving it back, just like last year.

Lo and behold, TDC is at new all-time highs today, formerly a top 3 position of mine.

Here I am, a most humble space alien magician, buying dips in ANR, VCLK and YELP, using the proceeds of a fine company, MJN, to finance degeneracy. On the eyes of Saturn, I will not sell any more grandpa stocks to buy shit. Correction, I am not saying those companies are shit, per se. Let’s just agree that their risk profiles are somewhat in flux.

Off to go hit somebody in the chest with a gravity hammer.

UPDATE: I am buying this YELP dip.

One thing is for certain, we still love AAPL and we hate travel agencies, opting for the online versions instead: PCLN, EXPE and TRIP. YELP is killing it because we don’t trust “professional food critiques.” The reviews that matter are the consensus opinions of the masses, which is why ANGI is of great interest to me.

Natural gas is so cheap, it has caused dementia in the management personal of America’s largest natural gas producer (CHK), leaving them open to a legitimate funding gap next year.

Coal has been killed, partly thanks to cheaper natural gas supplanting it at power plants and a seemingly worsening Chinese economy, leading to weak met coal pricing. Nevertheless, oil is still robust and margins at the refineries are very strong.

Online advertising is allegedly strong; but why is VCLK getting smashed this morning? American’s love to watch movies (RGC), but have grown weary of the sub-par offerings of NFLX. iTunes will crush them one day to dust.

The next big trend is out there, within reach of anyone who is paying attention. I happen to believe that trend is hidden in the cosmetically rich valuations of social networking stocks. Before you know it, their 50%+ growth rates will cheapen the valuations and these stocks will “Priceline” the fuck higher, scorching the shorts, sending those fuckers sheepishly to the breadline.

Bloggers in the Blogger Network will receive the same page rank as my own staff. However, such luxuries will come at a great expense. Starting immediately, I am watching you very closely, as you represent iBankCoin, in all of its pomp and grandeur. Should you fuck up or post horseshit with bad syntax, I will fire you.

For bloggers in the blogger network: you now have editorial power to choose front page pictures to accompany your posts. You have access to my personal collection of eclectic pictures, placed on the upper right hand side of the wordpress dashboard. Enjoy them with my compliments.

GONE ARE THE DAYS OF SUB-PAR BLOGS. BEHOLD THE ERA OF ENFORCED EXCELLENCE.

Moreover, we are still in the development stages of creating an iBankCoin economy that will dictate your “rank” on the site, with whimsical income versus expenses spreads– and other fun things to help alleviate the stress this cocksucking market burdens us with. Those things, AND MORE, will be completed inside of the next week. For now, you can see most readers are defaulted as “analysts.” There will be “trainee”, “vagrant” and “prison” (banned fuckers) ranks as well, all done with the utmost care and precision that you’ve grown to expect from iBankCoin.

BEHOLD THE INTRODUCTION OF THE MERITOCRACY.

All posts, aside from me and the 12631 boys, adhere to the laws of chronology. In the center is a “trending” box, listing the top 4 articles posted on the site, over a 24 hour time frame.

Some things never change, however, like excellence.

-Fly, 2012

This is a quarter, as an investor, you can build on. The company is on the cusp of going EBITDA positive and before you know it, they will be profitable. This is, with pulling punches, one of a select few premium names in social networking. Moreover, I do not believe Facebook, Google, Microsoft– or other big internet companies– will just sit there looking at YELP kill it. They will try to acquire them.

For the day, I made 0.9%.

UPDATE: Here is a replay of the YELP call.

SAN FRANCISCO, May 2, 2012 /PRNewswire/ – Yelp Inc. (YELP), the company that connects consumers with great local businesses, today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012.

• Revenue was $27.4 million in the first quarter of 2012, reflecting 66% growth in revenue from the first quarter 2011
• Cumulative reviews grew 59% to 27.6 million
• Average monthly unique visitors grew 53% to 71.4 million*
• Active local business accounts grew 117% to 27,300

Net loss in the first quarter of 2012 was $(9.8) million or $(0.31) per share, compared to a net loss of $(2.8) million, or $(0.19) per share, in the first quarter of 2011. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2012 was a loss of approximately $1 million, compared to a loss of $880,000 for the first quarter of 2011.

“We are very pleased to report our first quarter as a public company,” said Jeremy Stoppelman, Yelp’s chief executive officer. “We were particularly excited to launch 11 new Yelp markets in the first quarter, including Sydney and Stockholm. With more than 80 Yelp cities around the world today, consumers are yelping about their favorite local businesses in record numbers and we look forward to continue expanding our platform around the globe.”

“Our initial public offering added $114 million to our balance sheet, adding strength to our financial foundation as we look to continue investing in our rapid growth and increase the value we deliver to our communities and local businesses,” added Rob Krolik, Yelp’s chief financial officer.  “The number of active business accounts has more than doubled year over year, and we have seen engagement from local business owners increase proportionally as they realize the positive economic impact that results when business owners have a constructive dialogue with their customers.”

Business Highlights

• New market expansion: Yelp launched 11 new markets in the first quarter, including Antwerp, Brussels, Oklahoma City, Perth and Hampton Beach, increasing the total active markets worldwide to 82.
• Yelp Mobile:  Our mobile apps were used on approximately 6.3 million unique mobile devices on a monthly average basis for the quarter. Our development team released a total of nine updates for Yelp’s iPhone and Android apps in the first quarter. Enhancements to the user experience included new features such as the release of photo feedback, new search filters (filter by what’s hot/new and by businesses with deals) and the ability to view business owner replies.
• Distribution partnerships: Mercedes and Lexus integrated Yelp into their in-vehicle infotainment systems. Combined with Yelp’s BMW partnership announced in December, these relationships underscore the value that Yelp content provides to consumers on the go. OEMs are now working quickly to ensure that Yelp reviews are within reach from the dashboard.
• Yelp for Business Owners: Yelp introduced a new set of dashboard metrics to make Yelp’s business owner accounts even more insightful. The most notable improvement is the integration of mobile metrics which enables a business owner to track how many people placed a call to a business, mapped directions, purchased a Yelp Deal and/or uploaded photos.
• Yelp Deals: Yelp Deals continues to grow. More than 25,000 businesses offered deals to their local community in the first quarter.

Business Outlook

As of today, Yelp is initiating guidance for its second quarter of 2012 and full year 2012 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

• For the second quarter of 2012, revenue is expected to be in the range of $29 million to $31 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss in the range of $(500,000) to $(800,000).
• For the full year of 2012, revenue is expected to be in the range of $128 to $132 million, representing growth of 54% to 58% compared to the full year of 2011. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be breakeven to slightly positive

UPDATE: Yelp misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY12 revs above consensus (22.99 +0.39)
Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.31 per share, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.30); revenues rose 66.1% year/year to $27.4 mln vs the $25.41 mln consensus. Cumulative reviews grew 59% year/year to 27.6 mln, average monthly unique visitors were up 53% to 71.4 mln, and active local business accounts grew 117% to 27,300. Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $29-31 mln vs. $29.07 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, and expects adjusted EBITDA to be ($500)-($800)K. Co issues upside guidance for FY12, sees FY12 revs of $128-132 mln vs. $124.77 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be breakeven to slightly positive.

Click here for conf call

Rest assured, with the elections around the corner, liquidity awaits in the balance, courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Hey, PEP just upped their dividend to 4%. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather keep my cash in PEP than some fucking “savings” account yielding less than 0.5%.

European markets are now nosediving after opening strong as fuck. Blame it on a plethora of weak PMI’s. Look, I get it; Europe is fucked and we’re just scheming our way to prosperity. Regardless, I still like PEP and its 4% divvy.

Bottom line: we’re likely to give up yesterday’s gains–not a big deal in the BIG scheme of things. Go eat a sandwich.