Category Archives: Uncategorized
VOLATILITY IS COMING
Just about once per annum the market enters the Twilight Zone, as the disbelievers snatch the purses of the anointed and send markets lower. Over the years, we’ve witnessed a steady, almost methodical, walk down of volatility, partly due to the manipulative measures being practiced at the Federal Reserve. As such, we’ve enjoyed pornographic stock returns and the elimination of the “bear class.”
However, almost like groundhog’s day, the bears make an appearance once or twice per year to remind everyone that markets do in fact go down–on occasion.
I believe we are entering such a period, albeit a brief one. During the month’s of May and June, the lot of you will die in despair, tortured by mountainous market calamities. If my losses in VIX/VXX weren’t upwards of $5 million since 2010, I’d try my hand at it right now. However, due to the exogenous circumstances of my pervious VXX endeavors, I’ve reserved it for my annual Halloween costume only, mainly to scare the adults–sending them indoors.
In short, prepare for a miniature meltdown, which will correct (extra Mr. Grady) the lowest of the low among us and turn them into honest men again.
Volatility is cheap and it’s only going to get more expensive from here.
Bill Ackman is Betting the Ranch on this Costume
Get Joe Fresh NOW! at your local JCP.
I don’t care what the analysts are saying about Joe Fresh. This is doomed to fail, just like CWTR and the fat mountain dogs who shopped there.
Disclosure: I am short JCP.
The Degenerate Parlour is Now Open For Business
I just want you to know that when you see me buy micro-cap stocks it’s always a very small investment. Today I bought 20,000 CRDS at around $1.90. If the stock gets cut in half, I am prepared to lose 50%. We are in the late stages of the melt up and these are the stocks that can make you quick money. Granted, there is nothing honorable about selling CLIR for a one day profit of 36%. But it’s fun to do, nonetheless.
My short positions in AG and JCP went higher today. They are both 3% positions and do not warrant immediate attention. It is my belief that both will trade materially lower and I don’t expect that to happen overnight. My other short, CCL, looks like hell–ready for a leg lower.
It was a good close, a solid bull market surge into the bell. By my calculations, I have approximately 3 weeks left to enjoy this run. After that I am going to a large cash position. In the meantime, I intend to dwell in the gutter, with snipes, parlaying in and out (no sashay) of vagrant, vagabond securities with the explicit intention of realizing short term profits.
Sticking With Familiar Faces
I don’t like change. I’m not the type to paint the walls purple and I’m not the type to invest in unorthodox manners. What we are seeing here today, as well as last week, is consolidation following a strong move higher. The people who bought in last week are the “weak hands” and will be flushed out of the market at the first sign of a sell off. They are Johnny come latelys and do not have the composure to withstand a barrage of sell orders.
If you’re interested in buying now, do so in increments.
Aside from one or two names that are in strong down trends, I am content with my mixed bag of nuts, even though it’s losing me money. I own a lot of KMB, ESRX, OSG, PPC, ATML, DDD, JIVE and even NFLX. I am positioned to make a great deal of money, if the market trades up. This is not a portfolio built for defense. If it was, I’d get rid of everything but ESRX and KMB.
When confused about the direction of the market, try to remember recent history and have faith in our government officials to keep the quo status and to kick the can down the road. Believe it or not, that is the best course of action for people living in the now. If you’re interested in preserving the American economy past 2025, you might want to make some structural changes. But maybe they know something you don’t.
For example: perhaps they are aware of an alien army on its way from a distant galaxy, hell bent on enslaving us to mine gold for them. Maybe the global warming thing picks up some steam and wipes out civilization inside of the next 10 years. Or, maybe we’re past the tipping point of fiscal cancer and it’s only a matter of time before the world sinks into an irreversible great depression.
If that’s the case, we might as well drink some brandy, dressed as gentlemen in top hats, printing money, on the deck of the sinking USS Americana.
Bet Against The Fly, Lose Your House
“The Fly” gave you trollops ample warning:
UPDATE: I have some important screens up in The PPT tonight. Anyone who is a member should be looking at our OB/OS screens.
“The Fly” is Back
Back to driving rail spikes through the skulls of the deserving.
You said YELP was going to $00.00, yet here it is whoring its way back to glory–fucking everyone in its path. I held because selling was not an option. Selling was not an option because if I sold and this shit happened, I’d never be able to forgive myself. I couldn’t forgive myself because I’m my harshest critic.
Despite being in the top 1% of income earners in America, I don’t feel a sense of accomplishment. It’s not cliche when I say “I fucking grind”–because I really do.
Here we are, yet again, with the market going the fuck higher, when it’s supposed to be down.
THE SOCIAL MEDIA REVOLUTION IS UPON YOU.
You bet against Facecrook because you thought it was humorous. Those motherfuckers have 900 million customers. They can monetize from now until they end of time, without ever adding another user. Jokes aside, betting against FB is fucking stupid at these levels. Now betting against YELP, one of the premier web properties in the world, is not only stupid, but suicide. I promise you, YELP will make me rich-er one day. You will look back on these lonely, dark days, when the social media experiment was in its nascency, and lament over not buying when they told you to sell.
A STORY OF DECAY AND DESTRUCTION
At the end of 2011, my target for the S&P 500 was 800.
I had my reasons and made a commitment to invest with the idea that 2012 would be devastating for the global economy. I entered 2012 heavily long high beta names and quickly exited them after realizing a quick 20% gain. I chilled, then chilled some more. Instead of chasing, I put 25% of my holdings in TLT under $115 and started a VXX position. But the market wasn’t listening to my warnings. Instead, it ran, then ran some more.
I caved.
I blew out of my TLT for a break-even to small loss and sold VXX for a bloody loss. The PPT provided me with a precise course of action, guiding me into TZA three times, pinning me to the wall as the market climbed. I sold that too.
The markets ripped daily and I wanted in. I bought the top.
My 20% gains turned into a 3% loss inside of three fucking months. My core beliefs of decay and destruction for the global economy have become my own reality due to hubris, greed and stupidity. I now find myself rooting for something that I despise and deem ridiculous. I know there is no way out, yet rationalize my position supported by fairy tales.
Since I bought the top, I fear selling the bottom. Psychology is a fucked up thing and cuts deep when trading millions of dollars.
You might think I am joking about the prospect of this market dropping 10%+ Monday if nothing is done; but I am not kidding. I haven’t smiled in weeks and find myself clinging onto sanity by a thread. I should be selling, reducing risk into the riskiest weekend the world has ever seen.
This is a mea culpa, an admittance of failure, served cold in the midst of a blazing bear market.
The Fuckbook Strikes, Yet Again
Facebook is hitting new lows again. Clearly, their CEO, Mark Fuckerberg, was not ready to be “Pearl Harbored” like this. Nonetheless, he needs to make a statement, say something, else his stupid stock is going to continue to “inverse QE” America. As for Margin Stanley, someone should be fired for this. This was no ordinary IPO. This was the fucking Facebook IPO and now everyone is laughing at us (please, tell them to stop laughing at us!!!).
The CEO of Margin should be fired. The head of the syndicate should be fired, alongside a dozen others. It is unbelievable to me that the board of MS is just letting this go by, as if it was a small trading error.
Pssst, come close to the screen; I want to tell you a little secret:
THE FUCKING FACECROOK HAS LOST OVER 25% OF ITS MARKET CAP IN A SINGLE WEEK!!!!
You cocksuckers at Margarine Stanley are complicit in the unraveling of an entire industry. You’ve injured me directly with YELP turning into ashes, post ipo. Who would have guessed it, aside from all of the haters.
The problem with haters is they hate too much. It’s like the boy who cried wolf. No one believes you because you complain too much.
At any rate, the market is a buy down here because the alternative is too grim, too burdensome on the working class. Let there be light now — or 100 years of uninterrupted darkness. (As you know, the night is dark and full of terrors.)
iBC Tribute to Mark Haines
Playing the Leg Lower
The drop in the major indices is underway. Whether it will last for one week or one year is not relevant. The purpose of this blog is to tell you how to play it. A great man once said “I’m not selling you anything. I’m telling you everything.”
Lower equities means lower commodities.
SCO, ZSL, ERY and DUST will get the job done.
Also, banks, tech and real estate will get poleaxed. Get some:
FAZ, DRV and TYP
Volatility
TVIX or VXX
Long Treasuries
TLT or TMF
Long Dollars, Short Euro
UUP, EUO
Fuck China
FXP, CZI
