Up 1.21% For the Day

2,577 views

My fucking arms are involuntarily punching people in the face now. That’s how hopped up I am on win. Step to me, ask me a question about a price to sales ratio, and you’re liable to get your jaw broken for you.

I don’t give a shit about the late day fade. I’m up almost 18% for the year thus far. I got Exodus ready to launch and advisors up my ass trying to get a piece of greatness.

You only live once (yolo) pal, so you might as well go balls to the wall when given the chance.

Speaking of which, how’d you like that close on DSKY?

Yeah buddy, that’s 100% premium cut winship for you right there.

Don't Bet Against Me from iBC on Vimeo.

Last of the Mohicans

3,471 views

Over the past 5 years, the single best sector to invest in has been in biotech. Big pharma has been desperately seeking to grow through acquisition, using their cash hordes to buy publicly traded r&d centers. More than that, they’re buying free cash flow, executing deals that are accretive to earnings. The latest takeout, SLXP, is just one of many that have been executed in recent years.

So who’s next?

For that, I did a simple search, scouring for companies doing over $100 million in revenues, free cash flow positive, growing revenues by more than 15%. Here is the short list.

DEPO
ACOR
ANIK
CBM
EBS
ENTA
INSY
LCI
PDLI
TECH
SGNT
ACET
CRL

Within the larger pharma names, here are my favorites to get taken over next.

JAZZ
MDVN
PCYC
TARO
QGEN
UTHR

That’s it. There’s a lot of chaff out there, names without revenues and earnings, pure speculative dice rolls. But there are only a few, with market caps under $20 billion, that are still independently traded. My favorites are JAZZ and MDVN, who are cash cows trading at reasonable valuations.

Biotech Setting Up For ‘Momentum Monday’

3,116 views

VRX buying SLXP for $14.5 billion is a huge deal. For one, SLXP is a piece of shit, which recently descended into hell after bad data. But like most biotech stocks, once the stock got flushed out, bargain shoppers stepped in, jacked the price higher–leading to a takeover.

In order to properly asses this deal and not get overly excited about the piece of shit micro caps that you own, let’s look at SLXP’s numbers.

1. The deal is being done at present levels, without a premium. This makes sense since SLXP is a piece of shit and is up 53% over the past 3 months.

2. SLPX’s market cap is $10 billion.

3. SLXP does over $1.3bill in revenues, growing in excess of 40% per annum.

4. SLXP is trading 7x sales

5. Up until recently, SLXP was netting between $20-50 million per quarter. Right now, they are bleeding out, likely due to ramping up R&D or marketing.

6. The company specializes in gastro-ailments.

Using the company search tool in The PPT, here are some results.

By industry:

ANIP
VIVO
ARDX
ASMB
ETRM
IRWD
HZNP
TRGT
SNGX
SGYP

By the numbers.

JAZZ (best match)
MDVN
PCYC
BMRN
ILMN

High Conviction Trades For 2015

3,598 views

I am keeping some of my oil stocks, no more than 10% of my overall portfolio as a call option on crude. I am only bearish on crude because the trend is now lower. However, if we’d simply use our grey matter and understand that the recent price decline will eventually lead to a great reduction in US rig counts and subsequent cap ex budgets, at a time when the economy is growing at an astounding 5%, we’d easily surmise that lower oil prices is now something that is unsustainable. That’s right. Despite all of my arch-pessimism, there is an extremely bullish case for oil stocks setting up in 2015.

To that end, I remain long SLCA, DVN, FMSA and ECR.

However, I am not keenly focused on crude at the moment. There are global games being played in that arena and I don’t have an edge.

These are some of my stronger ideas, with a one or two liner explaining my thesis.

DTSI: Electronics maker and chief competitor to Sonos. I wrote a piece on it a month ago.

JAZZ: Don’t sleep on narcolepsy.

FRO: Super-contango and lower Brent prices is bullish for oil tanker storage.

AMZN: Fuel prices.

SBUX: Aspirational.

HABT: The MCD killer.Shake Shack ipo should keep this popping throughout 2015.

LB: Thongs.

KMB: Domestic sales. Staple.

BID: One of my 30 year hold stocks.

PZZA: Fuel prices.

WFM: Aspirational.

Gas station plays: CST, CASY, TA and IMKTA.

STZ: Domestic sales.

Researching: AIRT

In summary, I am bullish on aspirational brands because lower fuel expenses pushes the poor guy to his local SBUX for a frappacino. Think of the economy as a video game and a bunch of disheveled poor guys just got upgraded. They will take their new found riches to stores that were slightly out of their price range, in order to bask in their new found riches, and spend it all. They will also extend their credit and delve deeper into debt, which is bullish for COF. I am bullish on cleaner eating and healthier choices. Rich or poor, Americans are moving in this direction, which is also bullish for WWAV, HAIN and CALM. Yes, eggs are healthy for you.

Domestic retailers are where you want to keep your money, thanks to our walled gardens. Avoid companies who whore their wares to third world neanderthals. These corporations are gluttonous and shall be punished. Stocks like CHD, CLX and IR will do well.

I also think AMZN busts loose soon and YELP catches a bid.

All of my bad trades in 2014 were in retarded stocks. I will try my hardest to avoid these cavernous black holes, until I fully regain my mojo of course.

WINSHIP IS ON THE MENU

1,169 views

I bought a little more HABT today, just a nibble. I’ve also taken liberties to start a new position in Chinese internet company YY. A new era has begun in this stocked market. All of the naysayers have been ushered into the city square for expeditious peni removal. The market, in all of its vainglorious swagger, continues to torture its participants, both long and short.

Oil seems to have a small bid here, but many oil stocks are taking the day off, in favor of tech stocks. If you knew what was good for you, you’d buy some.

Shares of FEYE are edging higher this morning, a stock that served as a personal torture chamber for me earlier this year. But it is written that “The Fly” shall seek out and destroy all of his enemies before the year is out. Ergo, I am long FEYE and it is now my largest position.

Who Has Good Hedges in the Oil Patch?

1,698 views

I am reading a lot of conflicting stuff, regarding hedges at some of your favorite oil companies. My favorite story is the lack of hedges at CLR, who fully covered their hedges last month–just before the gargantuan move lower. Most of the reports I’ve read had a worst case scenario crude price of $70. As we approach, $60, it’s worth noting, the industry is in serious trouble. With over $200 billion in junk related debt, or 16% of all US junk debt, the drop in crude is bound to have a ripple effect that will be deleterious to investors.

Before I get into the hedges, just know the price of iron ore has crashed too, now at 5 yr lows. Couple that with oil, the dry bulk index, and copper, it truly paints a negative picture for China bulls.

At any rate, here is what I’ve managed to cobble together, thus far.
hedges2

hedges3

hedges4

Apparently, you should beware of oil companies who have three way collars on production, as it doesn’t put a floor into the price of crude. The poster child for three way collars is PXD. Again, it’s a little murky out there, regarding who has the best hedges. But it appears PDCE did it right, hedged at $89, through 2016. It looks like HK and FANG did it right too. As the price of crude continues to slide, I am sure we’ll be hearing a lot more about this very important tidbit of information.

HAHAHAHA- YOU PEOPLE HAVE DONE LOST YOUR MINDS

3,712 views

Full disclosure: I went back to sleep after bearing witness to the raping of my oil stocks.

Talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water. Down a hard 10 in SLCA, fucking 20%, due to the collapse in oil? You know what, words cannot express the sheer fuckness of what just transpired, so I’ll just post a screen shot of what happened.

LOL

So this is the end of oil production in the United States, yes? All of you fuckheads should sell the remainder of your oil stocks and barrel into WFM, with reckless abandon.

I was also amused that my BALT got its brains shot out, which is odd since THEY DON’T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE FUCKING OIL TRADE. Those lads deliver steel, grains and slaves, totally insulated from the soon-to-be bankrupt folks in the Bakken.

You shmucks thought you were energy independent, drilling away like fucking imbeciles, in the shale rocks, at a cost of $70 per barrel. Now you have those rocks in your head and the House of Saud pisses on your shaley graves.

In other news, GPRO was down a smidge. Overall, I lost 1.7% today and I don’t even have a lot of money in fucking oil stocks, mainly thanks to the pin action in SLCA, DVN, CHK, COP and BALT.

The World is Not Ending

1,507 views

TNA’s death has been widely exaggerated. Small capped stocks are making a valiant effort here, in the face of horrifying circumstances.

There has been just 1 oversold signal for TNA during this whole Russell slide.
os
And here we are now.

In my personal account, my largest position is still TLT–as it is being used as a ‘cash substitute’ and will be liquidated towards the end of August. Hopefully by that time I will be able to buy some stocks cheaper. However, as of right now, the market is due for a sharp bounce higher, especially since everyone is on edge–scared of their own shadows.

It’s important that we put in a base today. We do not need to come out with guns blazing, jack-kniving people in the face. Let’s have a nice, clean day, long Chinese burritos scam stocks, merrily going about our days like dignified gentlemen from the 1800’s.

Up 1.21% For the Day

2,577 views

My fucking arms are involuntarily punching people in the face now. That’s how hopped up I am on win. Step to me, ask me a question about a price to sales ratio, and you’re liable to get your jaw broken for you.

I don’t give a shit about the late day fade. I’m up almost 18% for the year thus far. I got Exodus ready to launch and advisors up my ass trying to get a piece of greatness.

You only live once (yolo) pal, so you might as well go balls to the wall when given the chance.

Speaking of which, how’d you like that close on DSKY?

Yeah buddy, that’s 100% premium cut winship for you right there.

Don't Bet Against Me from iBC on Vimeo.

Last of the Mohicans

3,471 views

Over the past 5 years, the single best sector to invest in has been in biotech. Big pharma has been desperately seeking to grow through acquisition, using their cash hordes to buy publicly traded r&d centers. More than that, they’re buying free cash flow, executing deals that are accretive to earnings. The latest takeout, SLXP, is just one of many that have been executed in recent years.

So who’s next?

For that, I did a simple search, scouring for companies doing over $100 million in revenues, free cash flow positive, growing revenues by more than 15%. Here is the short list.

DEPO
ACOR
ANIK
CBM
EBS
ENTA
INSY
LCI
PDLI
TECH
SGNT
ACET
CRL

Within the larger pharma names, here are my favorites to get taken over next.

JAZZ
MDVN
PCYC
TARO
QGEN
UTHR

That’s it. There’s a lot of chaff out there, names without revenues and earnings, pure speculative dice rolls. But there are only a few, with market caps under $20 billion, that are still independently traded. My favorites are JAZZ and MDVN, who are cash cows trading at reasonable valuations.

Biotech Setting Up For ‘Momentum Monday’

3,116 views

VRX buying SLXP for $14.5 billion is a huge deal. For one, SLXP is a piece of shit, which recently descended into hell after bad data. But like most biotech stocks, once the stock got flushed out, bargain shoppers stepped in, jacked the price higher–leading to a takeover.

In order to properly asses this deal and not get overly excited about the piece of shit micro caps that you own, let’s look at SLXP’s numbers.

1. The deal is being done at present levels, without a premium. This makes sense since SLXP is a piece of shit and is up 53% over the past 3 months.

2. SLPX’s market cap is $10 billion.

3. SLXP does over $1.3bill in revenues, growing in excess of 40% per annum.

4. SLXP is trading 7x sales

5. Up until recently, SLXP was netting between $20-50 million per quarter. Right now, they are bleeding out, likely due to ramping up R&D or marketing.

6. The company specializes in gastro-ailments.

Using the company search tool in The PPT, here are some results.

By industry:

ANIP
VIVO
ARDX
ASMB
ETRM
IRWD
HZNP
TRGT
SNGX
SGYP

By the numbers.

JAZZ (best match)
MDVN
PCYC
BMRN
ILMN

High Conviction Trades For 2015

3,598 views

I am keeping some of my oil stocks, no more than 10% of my overall portfolio as a call option on crude. I am only bearish on crude because the trend is now lower. However, if we’d simply use our grey matter and understand that the recent price decline will eventually lead to a great reduction in US rig counts and subsequent cap ex budgets, at a time when the economy is growing at an astounding 5%, we’d easily surmise that lower oil prices is now something that is unsustainable. That’s right. Despite all of my arch-pessimism, there is an extremely bullish case for oil stocks setting up in 2015.

To that end, I remain long SLCA, DVN, FMSA and ECR.

However, I am not keenly focused on crude at the moment. There are global games being played in that arena and I don’t have an edge.

These are some of my stronger ideas, with a one or two liner explaining my thesis.

DTSI: Electronics maker and chief competitor to Sonos. I wrote a piece on it a month ago.

JAZZ: Don’t sleep on narcolepsy.

FRO: Super-contango and lower Brent prices is bullish for oil tanker storage.

AMZN: Fuel prices.

SBUX: Aspirational.

HABT: The MCD killer.Shake Shack ipo should keep this popping throughout 2015.

LB: Thongs.

KMB: Domestic sales. Staple.

BID: One of my 30 year hold stocks.

PZZA: Fuel prices.

WFM: Aspirational.

Gas station plays: CST, CASY, TA and IMKTA.

STZ: Domestic sales.

Researching: AIRT

In summary, I am bullish on aspirational brands because lower fuel expenses pushes the poor guy to his local SBUX for a frappacino. Think of the economy as a video game and a bunch of disheveled poor guys just got upgraded. They will take their new found riches to stores that were slightly out of their price range, in order to bask in their new found riches, and spend it all. They will also extend their credit and delve deeper into debt, which is bullish for COF. I am bullish on cleaner eating and healthier choices. Rich or poor, Americans are moving in this direction, which is also bullish for WWAV, HAIN and CALM. Yes, eggs are healthy for you.

Domestic retailers are where you want to keep your money, thanks to our walled gardens. Avoid companies who whore their wares to third world neanderthals. These corporations are gluttonous and shall be punished. Stocks like CHD, CLX and IR will do well.

I also think AMZN busts loose soon and YELP catches a bid.

All of my bad trades in 2014 were in retarded stocks. I will try my hardest to avoid these cavernous black holes, until I fully regain my mojo of course.

WINSHIP IS ON THE MENU

1,169 views

I bought a little more HABT today, just a nibble. I’ve also taken liberties to start a new position in Chinese internet company YY. A new era has begun in this stocked market. All of the naysayers have been ushered into the city square for expeditious peni removal. The market, in all of its vainglorious swagger, continues to torture its participants, both long and short.

Oil seems to have a small bid here, but many oil stocks are taking the day off, in favor of tech stocks. If you knew what was good for you, you’d buy some.

Shares of FEYE are edging higher this morning, a stock that served as a personal torture chamber for me earlier this year. But it is written that “The Fly” shall seek out and destroy all of his enemies before the year is out. Ergo, I am long FEYE and it is now my largest position.

Who Has Good Hedges in the Oil Patch?

1,698 views

I am reading a lot of conflicting stuff, regarding hedges at some of your favorite oil companies. My favorite story is the lack of hedges at CLR, who fully covered their hedges last month–just before the gargantuan move lower. Most of the reports I’ve read had a worst case scenario crude price of $70. As we approach, $60, it’s worth noting, the industry is in serious trouble. With over $200 billion in junk related debt, or 16% of all US junk debt, the drop in crude is bound to have a ripple effect that will be deleterious to investors.

Before I get into the hedges, just know the price of iron ore has crashed too, now at 5 yr lows. Couple that with oil, the dry bulk index, and copper, it truly paints a negative picture for China bulls.

At any rate, here is what I’ve managed to cobble together, thus far.
hedges2

hedges3

hedges4

Apparently, you should beware of oil companies who have three way collars on production, as it doesn’t put a floor into the price of crude. The poster child for three way collars is PXD. Again, it’s a little murky out there, regarding who has the best hedges. But it appears PDCE did it right, hedged at $89, through 2016. It looks like HK and FANG did it right too. As the price of crude continues to slide, I am sure we’ll be hearing a lot more about this very important tidbit of information.

HAHAHAHA- YOU PEOPLE HAVE DONE LOST YOUR MINDS

3,712 views

Full disclosure: I went back to sleep after bearing witness to the raping of my oil stocks.

Talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water. Down a hard 10 in SLCA, fucking 20%, due to the collapse in oil? You know what, words cannot express the sheer fuckness of what just transpired, so I’ll just post a screen shot of what happened.

LOL

So this is the end of oil production in the United States, yes? All of you fuckheads should sell the remainder of your oil stocks and barrel into WFM, with reckless abandon.

I was also amused that my BALT got its brains shot out, which is odd since THEY DON’T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE FUCKING OIL TRADE. Those lads deliver steel, grains and slaves, totally insulated from the soon-to-be bankrupt folks in the Bakken.

You shmucks thought you were energy independent, drilling away like fucking imbeciles, in the shale rocks, at a cost of $70 per barrel. Now you have those rocks in your head and the House of Saud pisses on your shaley graves.

In other news, GPRO was down a smidge. Overall, I lost 1.7% today and I don’t even have a lot of money in fucking oil stocks, mainly thanks to the pin action in SLCA, DVN, CHK, COP and BALT.

The World is Not Ending

1,507 views

TNA’s death has been widely exaggerated. Small capped stocks are making a valiant effort here, in the face of horrifying circumstances.

There has been just 1 oversold signal for TNA during this whole Russell slide.
os
And here we are now.

In my personal account, my largest position is still TLT–as it is being used as a ‘cash substitute’ and will be liquidated towards the end of August. Hopefully by that time I will be able to buy some stocks cheaper. However, as of right now, the market is due for a sharp bounce higher, especially since everyone is on edge–scared of their own shadows.

It’s important that we put in a base today. We do not need to come out with guns blazing, jack-kniving people in the face. Let’s have a nice, clean day, long Chinese burritos scam stocks, merrily going about our days like dignified gentlemen from the 1800’s.

Previous Posts by Dr. Fly
Ain't So Bad
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