THAT WAS A KILL

2,947 views

The misery is palpable. 200 NASDAQS in so many days. You thought the market was going to simply drift away. But, in fact, it was revving up to run over your fat, fucking, faces (extra Stuntman Mike).

I made wholesale changes to the portfolio today–all for the better. My sales were executed in a timely order, at least intra-day. And my purchases are all up 2%+ from my basis.

The Gods have smited you and tossed you back in the trash heap of man. Your puts and shorts have been annihilated and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just ran, mind you, 700 motherfucking points over the past two days.

The Santa Claus rally is here. You’ve been discredited. The world is back on its axis.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,582 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,539 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

The Santa Claus Rally is Now

1,693 views

There are so many people to punish today, where to begin? All of you greedy types, buying UVXY into the teeth of despair, shall be dealt with today–justly. Your lands will be seized, wives confiscated, and estate’s liquidated.

Between yesterday and today, we are looking at a 500 point rally. If you missed the run, it’s probably too late to get in for the large percentage gains. However, seeing people like Cramer on the teevee, there is a wall of worry still. There are people out there who just don’t believe in Santa Claus. Those people, mind you, shall be dealt with–justly–too.

By the looks of the open, I stand to take back some of the money that was stolen from me. But the hole is too dip to fill from now until year end. I will likely gain 20% of what I lost in recent weeks today.

PTRY got bought out. I was eye balling them because I know gas stations do exceptionally well when prices decline. I was looking to buy PTRY at $19 and missed the whole run. Other gas station/grocery plays to consider are CST, CASY, IMKTA and of course COST.

Top picks: SLCA, HABT, ECR, FMSA

Mathematical Precision or Buckshot?

1,663 views

As you know by now, The PPT accurately called the bottom yesterday, flagging an oversold signal that led to a monumental 100 NASDAQS surge. Today’s rally changed the tone of the tape, in that the short sellers felt vulnerable to downside pin action, despite all of the seemingly negative news.

I’m gonna keep this 100 percent numerical, leaving out opinions and emotions.

Here is the raw data of recent PPT oversold signals and how the market responded.

Yesterday’s OS

OS1

This OS came after a series of oversold signal, most of which proved to be early. The market jerked back and forth, but ultimately hit new highs.
OS2

This one nailed the bottom, to the day.

OS3

How’d it do on other occasions, you ponder?
OS4

This.

OS6

And this.
os7

Also this.
os9

Getting boring.
os10

And again.
os11

A sublime harmony of mathematical precision (SHOMP)
os12

So why haven’t I strictly adhered to the teachings of The PPT algorithms? It’s the mystery of my life. It confounds me on a daily basis. I am not hedging myself here. The data is the data is the data. PPT wins. It gives people an edge by analyzing over 4,000 stocks, ranking them by fundamentals and technicals, taking into account price movements in commodities, treasuries and currencies. It parses out traditional correlations and makes predictions as to when the rubber band will snap back. It’s not your standard, run of the mill, mean reversion tool. It is robust, accurate, and invaluable.

It is my greatest achievement and my biggest detriment wrapped up in one. It’s so hard to remove oneself from the art of stock picking. It’s an addiction that addles me. It calls my name at night. It speaks to me in the day. I know my life would be far better off making macro-calls, using this and ETFs to accomplish my goals. But it’s hard, real hard, to just give up the pipe. I need one more hit. One more parade down the canyon of heroes, then I am done.

Until the next one comes and then I am here, writing a blog at 1:38 am about what could’ve been and what should’ve been, instead of what happened.

Easy There, Lads

3,056 views

As much as I’d like to pop champagne corks into your faces and celebrate the new bull market, one designed to offer daily 15% gains in oil stocks, we are more likely to fall into a sewer pipe tomorrow. All of this pomp and circumstance is part of the circus act. Janet Yellen is tone deaf, as well as 99% of the people on the tv.

Oil reversed and gave up big gains, yet all of these ham and eggers keep talking about a strong economic environment.

Remember when this pole strokers said China would be insulated from the credit crisis? Yeah, those same people think we will avoid the Grimm Reaper, as he makes his rounds around the world–plunging everything and everyone into despair.

There cannot be a stronger than expected US economy when you have 6 million jobs at risk, in an industry that is circling the toilet bowl. The Fed made the same mistake in 2006-2007, tightening into a damaged economy.

For now, I remain long and will try to regain some of my lost swagger with this lift. I deployed some capital today and have prayed and brayed to baby Jesus for mountainous gains.

Oh, and yes, The PPT won again. It flagged oversold yesterday. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

No Fade Today

1,325 views

You’re all too jaded. You forget that bears get fucked too, especially in bear markets. Remember when the market went up a thousand points in the depths of the 2009 crisis? Of course you don’t–because you’re all punk kids, or if you were a bear, you died that day.

Breadth is at a solid 82%. It is very unlikely that we will sell off. Santa Yellen did what she was ordered to do. Now she’s at her local diner eating a club sandwich.

If there is one thing you should take from this blog, it is this: in the end, everyone gets fucked–even bears in bear markets.

HUGELY BULLISH ON THIS

3,294 views

I don’t care what happens today. I can become homeless and live inside of a garbage can, but will still be content because of the availability of Cuban cigars. Yes, it’s true, after a gagillion years we are normalizing relations with Cuba.

Let the Italian mafia live long, prosper, and rebuild that idiot island of doctors and auto mechanics into the Mecca of the caribbean.

In other news, get long cigar shoppes.

NOTE: I added to SLCA.

Small Nibbles, Just in Case

1,282 views

Seeing the energy complex rip off heads and shit down shoulders, I added to my SLCA and FMSA positions. In addition to that, I bought more BALT, seeing the shippers starting to percolate. If indeed we are to rally, the fucking shippers have a 100% move in them.

My other energy lotto play, purchased the other day, WRES, is ripping off mammaries.

DO NOT TRUST THIS WOMAN

1,888 views

I doubt Janet Yellen has even bothered to look at the news. I am almost certain she still believes oil is still trading at $100, just like Joe Kernan and the rest of the fucktards on CNBC. In case you’re wondering, the oil and gas industry employs almost 6 million people in this country. More than 10% of all new jobs created, since 2007, has been in this industry. Skimming over reports, I can tell you, unequivocally, US rig count and cap ex budgets are set to plummet in as big way. More than 500 rigs are scheduled to be idled soon and the Bakken shale turned back into a wasteland. Pink slips by the truckload will be delivered.

Yet, you turn on the teevee and these fucking morons are beating off to higher interest rates all day. Sure, that’s exactly what the currency market needs now–a hawkish Fed to super charge the dollar vs the ruble.

I have little confidence in this rally sticking, post Fed. There is a certain group think, rooted in extreme idiocy, infecting the minds of everyone.

A few quick ideas.

SYRG, FANG, GPOR, PDCE and MTDR have the best balance sheets and wells around. They are low cost producers and should make it out of this mess unscathed. Then again, who knows where crude will stabilize? I’ve looked over countless oil and gas companies and I hate most of them. With over $500 billion in debt, this industry is slated to be destroyed. The junk bond market is in free-fall and that negative sentiment is spilling over into ordinary corporates. It’s imperative that you own companies who are aptly financed.

Lastly, I find it supremely comical that the retards over at GE were beguiled during the ’08 meltdown for being a financial company and now find themselves equally misfitted during the energy crisis, as an energy company. In recent statements they said business would be a lot better if oil were $125. Good luck.

THAT WAS A KILL

2,947 views

The misery is palpable. 200 NASDAQS in so many days. You thought the market was going to simply drift away. But, in fact, it was revving up to run over your fat, fucking, faces (extra Stuntman Mike).

I made wholesale changes to the portfolio today–all for the better. My sales were executed in a timely order, at least intra-day. And my purchases are all up 2%+ from my basis.

The Gods have smited you and tossed you back in the trash heap of man. Your puts and shorts have been annihilated and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just ran, mind you, 700 motherfucking points over the past two days.

The Santa Claus rally is here. You’ve been discredited. The world is back on its axis.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,582 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,539 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

The Santa Claus Rally is Now

1,693 views

There are so many people to punish today, where to begin? All of you greedy types, buying UVXY into the teeth of despair, shall be dealt with today–justly. Your lands will be seized, wives confiscated, and estate’s liquidated.

Between yesterday and today, we are looking at a 500 point rally. If you missed the run, it’s probably too late to get in for the large percentage gains. However, seeing people like Cramer on the teevee, there is a wall of worry still. There are people out there who just don’t believe in Santa Claus. Those people, mind you, shall be dealt with–justly–too.

By the looks of the open, I stand to take back some of the money that was stolen from me. But the hole is too dip to fill from now until year end. I will likely gain 20% of what I lost in recent weeks today.

PTRY got bought out. I was eye balling them because I know gas stations do exceptionally well when prices decline. I was looking to buy PTRY at $19 and missed the whole run. Other gas station/grocery plays to consider are CST, CASY, IMKTA and of course COST.

Top picks: SLCA, HABT, ECR, FMSA

Mathematical Precision or Buckshot?

1,663 views

As you know by now, The PPT accurately called the bottom yesterday, flagging an oversold signal that led to a monumental 100 NASDAQS surge. Today’s rally changed the tone of the tape, in that the short sellers felt vulnerable to downside pin action, despite all of the seemingly negative news.

I’m gonna keep this 100 percent numerical, leaving out opinions and emotions.

Here is the raw data of recent PPT oversold signals and how the market responded.

Yesterday’s OS

OS1

This OS came after a series of oversold signal, most of which proved to be early. The market jerked back and forth, but ultimately hit new highs.
OS2

This one nailed the bottom, to the day.

OS3

How’d it do on other occasions, you ponder?
OS4

This.

OS6

And this.
os7

Also this.
os9

Getting boring.
os10

And again.
os11

A sublime harmony of mathematical precision (SHOMP)
os12

So why haven’t I strictly adhered to the teachings of The PPT algorithms? It’s the mystery of my life. It confounds me on a daily basis. I am not hedging myself here. The data is the data is the data. PPT wins. It gives people an edge by analyzing over 4,000 stocks, ranking them by fundamentals and technicals, taking into account price movements in commodities, treasuries and currencies. It parses out traditional correlations and makes predictions as to when the rubber band will snap back. It’s not your standard, run of the mill, mean reversion tool. It is robust, accurate, and invaluable.

It is my greatest achievement and my biggest detriment wrapped up in one. It’s so hard to remove oneself from the art of stock picking. It’s an addiction that addles me. It calls my name at night. It speaks to me in the day. I know my life would be far better off making macro-calls, using this and ETFs to accomplish my goals. But it’s hard, real hard, to just give up the pipe. I need one more hit. One more parade down the canyon of heroes, then I am done.

Until the next one comes and then I am here, writing a blog at 1:38 am about what could’ve been and what should’ve been, instead of what happened.

Easy There, Lads

3,056 views

As much as I’d like to pop champagne corks into your faces and celebrate the new bull market, one designed to offer daily 15% gains in oil stocks, we are more likely to fall into a sewer pipe tomorrow. All of this pomp and circumstance is part of the circus act. Janet Yellen is tone deaf, as well as 99% of the people on the tv.

Oil reversed and gave up big gains, yet all of these ham and eggers keep talking about a strong economic environment.

Remember when this pole strokers said China would be insulated from the credit crisis? Yeah, those same people think we will avoid the Grimm Reaper, as he makes his rounds around the world–plunging everything and everyone into despair.

There cannot be a stronger than expected US economy when you have 6 million jobs at risk, in an industry that is circling the toilet bowl. The Fed made the same mistake in 2006-2007, tightening into a damaged economy.

For now, I remain long and will try to regain some of my lost swagger with this lift. I deployed some capital today and have prayed and brayed to baby Jesus for mountainous gains.

Oh, and yes, The PPT won again. It flagged oversold yesterday. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

No Fade Today

1,325 views

You’re all too jaded. You forget that bears get fucked too, especially in bear markets. Remember when the market went up a thousand points in the depths of the 2009 crisis? Of course you don’t–because you’re all punk kids, or if you were a bear, you died that day.

Breadth is at a solid 82%. It is very unlikely that we will sell off. Santa Yellen did what she was ordered to do. Now she’s at her local diner eating a club sandwich.

If there is one thing you should take from this blog, it is this: in the end, everyone gets fucked–even bears in bear markets.

HUGELY BULLISH ON THIS

3,294 views

I don’t care what happens today. I can become homeless and live inside of a garbage can, but will still be content because of the availability of Cuban cigars. Yes, it’s true, after a gagillion years we are normalizing relations with Cuba.

Let the Italian mafia live long, prosper, and rebuild that idiot island of doctors and auto mechanics into the Mecca of the caribbean.

In other news, get long cigar shoppes.

NOTE: I added to SLCA.

Small Nibbles, Just in Case

1,282 views

Seeing the energy complex rip off heads and shit down shoulders, I added to my SLCA and FMSA positions. In addition to that, I bought more BALT, seeing the shippers starting to percolate. If indeed we are to rally, the fucking shippers have a 100% move in them.

My other energy lotto play, purchased the other day, WRES, is ripping off mammaries.

DO NOT TRUST THIS WOMAN

1,888 views

I doubt Janet Yellen has even bothered to look at the news. I am almost certain she still believes oil is still trading at $100, just like Joe Kernan and the rest of the fucktards on CNBC. In case you’re wondering, the oil and gas industry employs almost 6 million people in this country. More than 10% of all new jobs created, since 2007, has been in this industry. Skimming over reports, I can tell you, unequivocally, US rig count and cap ex budgets are set to plummet in as big way. More than 500 rigs are scheduled to be idled soon and the Bakken shale turned back into a wasteland. Pink slips by the truckload will be delivered.

Yet, you turn on the teevee and these fucking morons are beating off to higher interest rates all day. Sure, that’s exactly what the currency market needs now–a hawkish Fed to super charge the dollar vs the ruble.

I have little confidence in this rally sticking, post Fed. There is a certain group think, rooted in extreme idiocy, infecting the minds of everyone.

A few quick ideas.

SYRG, FANG, GPOR, PDCE and MTDR have the best balance sheets and wells around. They are low cost producers and should make it out of this mess unscathed. Then again, who knows where crude will stabilize? I’ve looked over countless oil and gas companies and I hate most of them. With over $500 billion in debt, this industry is slated to be destroyed. The junk bond market is in free-fall and that negative sentiment is spilling over into ordinary corporates. It’s imperative that you own companies who are aptly financed.

Lastly, I find it supremely comical that the retards over at GE were beguiled during the ’08 meltdown for being a financial company and now find themselves equally misfitted during the energy crisis, as an energy company. In recent statements they said business would be a lot better if oil were $125. Good luck.

Previous Posts by Dr. Fly
We're At War
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