If Oil is To Bounce, It Will Do So Now

3,177 views

One small side note about oil that none of you ham and eggers are talking about is the seasonality aspect. Oil never trades up in January, but tends to forklift higher ahead of the driving season.

USO

That’s right, even when times were good for the fat slobs in Venezuela, oil traded lower 8 of the past 9 years in January. That trend would reverse in February and March, setting up for a very timely long-trade in late January.

Because of this, coupled with dollar weakness, I started a position in SN.

Let Me Show You My Charts

1,668 views

Let me show you a new tool in soon to be released Exodus, the second iteration of The PPT. Our algorithms grade each stock, sector and ETF. We’ve added a lot of visuals to the software, showing stress points and ranges. Last week, inside The PPT, I highlighted how biotech was at the bottom of the range. Now it’s near the top. When I say “range”, I do not refer to stock price, but Hybrid score, which is a combination of technical and fundamental scores, mixed in with lots of sub rosa grading metrics.
PPT post

Have a look at gold today.

Gold

I was going to buy gold yesterday, based on this chart alone. However, I hate gold, deep to the core of my bones, so I was deterred.

As for this sell off: the CAT-MSFT axis of evil cannot be taken seriously. Several of my top positions are up and the dollar is weak, which is good for oil. Gravitate towards commodities today and you should be fine.

Laughable Opening

1,597 views

We go higher from here.

I like oil best here, with SLCA, PDCE and ECR as my top picks.

Waiting for SHAK.

On the Eve of the Shake Shack IPO, I Am Long $HABT

3,524 views

I love Shake Shack. It is my favorite burger joint on the planet. I’ve never seen a fast food restaurant as busy since MCD in the 1980’s or CMG right now. Although I love SHAK, I am having a hard time coming to grips with the $500 million+ market cap, despite being smaller than HABT.

 

Here is how SHAK, HABT and CMG stack up.

HABT

So let me get this straight: SHAK is going to trade more than 2x HABT’s market cap, yet do $60 million less in revenues and sport a growth rate equal to them? This smells of NYC snobbery, considering SHAK has 7 stores in the city. I am going to buy SHAK, one way or another. I am comfortable with owning it and allowing the growth to fill in the high valuation.

 

Again, SHAK is going to trade upwards of 3.5x sales, and HABT is at 1.5X.

 

UPDATE: Fucking shit data was wrong on HABT, using Yahoo finance. I had checked it against another source and was the same. The valuation argument goes out the window and this is simply a long term value proposition.

Only one thing makes sense here: HABT is significantly undervalued and should trade upwards of $50 in 2015. Every stupid restaurant stock on the market has rallied over the past month, but HABT. The time has come for an extreme melt up.

Regarding the genre of owning higher end casual dining restaurants: this is the single best place to be in retail. You get the chance to buy HABT or SHAK in its nascency, with the advantage of not having McDonald’s, or some VC, incubate them– like CMG or BWLD–for an inordinate amount of time before coming public. If the concept works, which we know it does, all that matters is store growth.

 

Back in 2001, BWLD had 150 stores. That stock is up 300% over the past 5 years.

BWLD

How big is the hamburger market?

2013-Top-5-Chain-Sales

How about 35,0000 stores large?

cmg

 

Domestically, there is room for at least 2,000 franchises for SHAK and HABT, who will rob and steal market share away from old legacy, lesser quality names, like MCD and QSR and WEN.

Back in 2002, CMG had about 250 stores. With the advantage of hindsight, how would you like to invest in CMG back then?

cmg

 

That stock is up 641% over the past 5 years.

SHAK and HABT are to BWLD and CMG what they were to MCD and QSR, only much, much earlier–which presents early investors with a unique opportunity for massive upside potential.

 

LET IT STORM WITH THE SNOW OF 10,000 BLIZZARDS

1,545 views

I want 500 feet of snow, the NYSE shut down and Wall Street removed from the map–replaced with a tundra. I gander outside of my window and see the flakes started to stick. The kids are playing about the sled and I made 2.5% today.

Because of the sensitivity of my situation, I shall be coy about my next moves and keep a relatively low profile. Just know that I believe today was a pivotal day in the big scheme of things. The market rose when it was supposed to fall. Beaten down dogs rose from the ashes and set fire to the bears who were mollycoddled into believing Greek elections were going to help them grow their nest-eggs, via inverse means.

Listen to me now: the rally has begun. See to your affairs and prepare for winship.

Fly Buy: $WMT

1,220 views

Cheap gas helps the vagrant population more than you know. Truth be told, I infiltrated their cabal this weekend and was met with delighted sales-persons idly tossing boxes about the aisles, as I picked up some plastic cups, which were on sale.

The peanut butter and jelly aisle was booming and generic hot dogs and buns were flying off the shelves.

I started a position in WMT.

ALL SINNERS WILL BE PURIFIED

1,344 views

…In the fires of my redemption.

They were laughing at me last week when NDRM went lower; now they are dying 10,000 deaths.

I lightened up on LITB and NNA, in order to fold back into the matrix. As much as I like those stocks, they aren’t working. Fundamentally robust ideas include FCAU and WETF. With Fiat, you get Ferrarri and Maserati, both premium european brands in an environment of a trashy euro. Expect material upside revisions in FCAU based off dollar strength.

With WETF, they are once again enjoying a ‘super-nova’ event, with HEWG, their hedged  German ETF. The last major ETF of this magnitude was DXJ, which put shares to these levels a few years back. If you recall, I played it from $9.

I didn’t buy any of the above stocks because they already moved. I tell you these stories so you can put them onto your radar.

Stocks that I did buy, however, include MDVN (fucking powerhouse drug), TPH, SLCA, ECR and MOAR NDRM.

The Greek Drama Has Ended

2,035 views

Futures are no longer down 100+ and European markets are higher.

I’d like to discuss a movie that I saw last night, The Exterminating Angel. You can catch 5 of 7 parts for free on Youtube. Naturally, I am about to spoil the entire movie for you, so if you care about that sort of thing and want to see the movie, like a child, completely ignorant to the events that will transpire, log off my website now.

The movie is about a dinner party, attended by rich folks, who suddenly, and without explanation, are unable to leave the room after dinner. The facade of dignity is quickly denigrated, and base human nature reigns supreme. A few people kill themselves and they are stuck in this room for at least a week. Outside the estate, there is a carnivale like atmosphere, with police looking at the house, but unable, for reasons unbeknownst to the viewer, to physically enter the house to rescue the idiots who are stuck in a room. They even raised an army detachment to do the deed; but the soldiers lacked the courage to follow through.

Long story short, after the crowd hit rock bottom, they undergo a small ritual and then one brave woman musters up the courage to step outside of the room. No one dared to do it until she went first. After she was successful, they all rushed out and into safety.

At the end of the movie, the same folks are in a church and then the same absurd set of events appears to repeat, the movie ending with a crowd of first class morons unable to leave the church, priest included. Everyone was simply saying stuff like “why don’t we leave after he leaves? Or, “I’ll go when she leaves.”

This is human behavior. As an investor and trader, I’ve seen this idiotic behavior play out in the markets countless times. A small thing snow-balls into a big one, and all of a sudden, CRISIS STRIKES, causing people to sell stocks and get stuck in ‘fag-boxes.’ For example, during the financial crisis everyone was convinced the world was ending. Equity markets plunged, even after bailouts were doled out. Then we’d get news of leaders, like Warren Buffett or David Tepper, stepping into buy ‘cheap shares’ leading to ferocious rallies. The idiots found it safe to leave the room because someone else did it first.

The movie, like the market, is about confidence and dealing with the unknown.

 

If Oil is To Bounce, It Will Do So Now

3,177 views

One small side note about oil that none of you ham and eggers are talking about is the seasonality aspect. Oil never trades up in January, but tends to forklift higher ahead of the driving season.

USO

That’s right, even when times were good for the fat slobs in Venezuela, oil traded lower 8 of the past 9 years in January. That trend would reverse in February and March, setting up for a very timely long-trade in late January.

Because of this, coupled with dollar weakness, I started a position in SN.

Let Me Show You My Charts

1,668 views

Let me show you a new tool in soon to be released Exodus, the second iteration of The PPT. Our algorithms grade each stock, sector and ETF. We’ve added a lot of visuals to the software, showing stress points and ranges. Last week, inside The PPT, I highlighted how biotech was at the bottom of the range. Now it’s near the top. When I say “range”, I do not refer to stock price, but Hybrid score, which is a combination of technical and fundamental scores, mixed in with lots of sub rosa grading metrics.
PPT post

Have a look at gold today.

Gold

I was going to buy gold yesterday, based on this chart alone. However, I hate gold, deep to the core of my bones, so I was deterred.

As for this sell off: the CAT-MSFT axis of evil cannot be taken seriously. Several of my top positions are up and the dollar is weak, which is good for oil. Gravitate towards commodities today and you should be fine.

Laughable Opening

1,597 views

We go higher from here.

I like oil best here, with SLCA, PDCE and ECR as my top picks.

Waiting for SHAK.

On the Eve of the Shake Shack IPO, I Am Long $HABT

3,524 views

I love Shake Shack. It is my favorite burger joint on the planet. I’ve never seen a fast food restaurant as busy since MCD in the 1980’s or CMG right now. Although I love SHAK, I am having a hard time coming to grips with the $500 million+ market cap, despite being smaller than HABT.

 

Here is how SHAK, HABT and CMG stack up.

HABT

So let me get this straight: SHAK is going to trade more than 2x HABT’s market cap, yet do $60 million less in revenues and sport a growth rate equal to them? This smells of NYC snobbery, considering SHAK has 7 stores in the city. I am going to buy SHAK, one way or another. I am comfortable with owning it and allowing the growth to fill in the high valuation.

 

Again, SHAK is going to trade upwards of 3.5x sales, and HABT is at 1.5X.

 

UPDATE: Fucking shit data was wrong on HABT, using Yahoo finance. I had checked it against another source and was the same. The valuation argument goes out the window and this is simply a long term value proposition.

Only one thing makes sense here: HABT is significantly undervalued and should trade upwards of $50 in 2015. Every stupid restaurant stock on the market has rallied over the past month, but HABT. The time has come for an extreme melt up.

Regarding the genre of owning higher end casual dining restaurants: this is the single best place to be in retail. You get the chance to buy HABT or SHAK in its nascency, with the advantage of not having McDonald’s, or some VC, incubate them– like CMG or BWLD–for an inordinate amount of time before coming public. If the concept works, which we know it does, all that matters is store growth.

 

Back in 2001, BWLD had 150 stores. That stock is up 300% over the past 5 years.

BWLD

How big is the hamburger market?

2013-Top-5-Chain-Sales

How about 35,0000 stores large?

cmg

 

Domestically, there is room for at least 2,000 franchises for SHAK and HABT, who will rob and steal market share away from old legacy, lesser quality names, like MCD and QSR and WEN.

Back in 2002, CMG had about 250 stores. With the advantage of hindsight, how would you like to invest in CMG back then?

cmg

 

That stock is up 641% over the past 5 years.

SHAK and HABT are to BWLD and CMG what they were to MCD and QSR, only much, much earlier–which presents early investors with a unique opportunity for massive upside potential.

 

LET IT STORM WITH THE SNOW OF 10,000 BLIZZARDS

1,545 views

I want 500 feet of snow, the NYSE shut down and Wall Street removed from the map–replaced with a tundra. I gander outside of my window and see the flakes started to stick. The kids are playing about the sled and I made 2.5% today.

Because of the sensitivity of my situation, I shall be coy about my next moves and keep a relatively low profile. Just know that I believe today was a pivotal day in the big scheme of things. The market rose when it was supposed to fall. Beaten down dogs rose from the ashes and set fire to the bears who were mollycoddled into believing Greek elections were going to help them grow their nest-eggs, via inverse means.

Listen to me now: the rally has begun. See to your affairs and prepare for winship.

Fly Buy: $WMT

1,220 views

Cheap gas helps the vagrant population more than you know. Truth be told, I infiltrated their cabal this weekend and was met with delighted sales-persons idly tossing boxes about the aisles, as I picked up some plastic cups, which were on sale.

The peanut butter and jelly aisle was booming and generic hot dogs and buns were flying off the shelves.

I started a position in WMT.

ALL SINNERS WILL BE PURIFIED

1,344 views

…In the fires of my redemption.

They were laughing at me last week when NDRM went lower; now they are dying 10,000 deaths.

I lightened up on LITB and NNA, in order to fold back into the matrix. As much as I like those stocks, they aren’t working. Fundamentally robust ideas include FCAU and WETF. With Fiat, you get Ferrarri and Maserati, both premium european brands in an environment of a trashy euro. Expect material upside revisions in FCAU based off dollar strength.

With WETF, they are once again enjoying a ‘super-nova’ event, with HEWG, their hedged  German ETF. The last major ETF of this magnitude was DXJ, which put shares to these levels a few years back. If you recall, I played it from $9.

I didn’t buy any of the above stocks because they already moved. I tell you these stories so you can put them onto your radar.

Stocks that I did buy, however, include MDVN (fucking powerhouse drug), TPH, SLCA, ECR and MOAR NDRM.

The Greek Drama Has Ended

2,035 views

Futures are no longer down 100+ and European markets are higher.

I’d like to discuss a movie that I saw last night, The Exterminating Angel. You can catch 5 of 7 parts for free on Youtube. Naturally, I am about to spoil the entire movie for you, so if you care about that sort of thing and want to see the movie, like a child, completely ignorant to the events that will transpire, log off my website now.

The movie is about a dinner party, attended by rich folks, who suddenly, and without explanation, are unable to leave the room after dinner. The facade of dignity is quickly denigrated, and base human nature reigns supreme. A few people kill themselves and they are stuck in this room for at least a week. Outside the estate, there is a carnivale like atmosphere, with police looking at the house, but unable, for reasons unbeknownst to the viewer, to physically enter the house to rescue the idiots who are stuck in a room. They even raised an army detachment to do the deed; but the soldiers lacked the courage to follow through.

Long story short, after the crowd hit rock bottom, they undergo a small ritual and then one brave woman musters up the courage to step outside of the room. No one dared to do it until she went first. After she was successful, they all rushed out and into safety.

At the end of the movie, the same folks are in a church and then the same absurd set of events appears to repeat, the movie ending with a crowd of first class morons unable to leave the church, priest included. Everyone was simply saying stuff like “why don’t we leave after he leaves? Or, “I’ll go when she leaves.”

This is human behavior. As an investor and trader, I’ve seen this idiotic behavior play out in the markets countless times. A small thing snow-balls into a big one, and all of a sudden, CRISIS STRIKES, causing people to sell stocks and get stuck in ‘fag-boxes.’ For example, during the financial crisis everyone was convinced the world was ending. Equity markets plunged, even after bailouts were doled out. Then we’d get news of leaders, like Warren Buffett or David Tepper, stepping into buy ‘cheap shares’ leading to ferocious rallies. The idiots found it safe to leave the room because someone else did it first.

The movie, like the market, is about confidence and dealing with the unknown.

 

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