Category Archives: Halftime
Well, we are halfway through 2010 and the markets are reeling. Despite minor year to date losses, the recent trends have been horrific, particularly in commodity related names. As always, there is a fight being played out, live in the markets, between the inflation and deflation crews. On one hand, common sense dictates that we are about to enter some brand of fucked up inflation, based upon the behavior of the Federal Reserve and incessant “bail out anyone” attitude of the Federal Government.
On the other hand, people seem to forget the banks are lying about their losses, thanks to new accounting rules, and will get sucked into the deflationary vortex, hard core, if some of the sovereign debt risk worsens. The losses are too great for the banks to bear. As a result, there will be a seizing up of credit, effectively pushing us over the ledge into the whimsical world of “double dip recession.” Plus, there seems to be a worldwide movement against easy money, vis a vis “austerity” measures and “responsible budgeting” here in the states.
Let me be clear: I am not here to tell you what is better for the economy. I am here because I know what will help stocks go higher. Say what you want about easy money and fucked up bailouts; but Wall Street likes it. Take the punch bowl away and we will all feel the pain immediately, some more so than others, indeud. Maybe we need to bite the bullet and throw this fucker into a deflationary vortex, so we can all come out “cool as fuck” on the other end, with mohawks and shit. However, something tells me deflation will lead to war and war will lead to a kick ass market. So, maybe I am for deflation?
Year to date, I am up 37% for clients and much more for myself. Coming off of 60% and 90% returns in 2008 and 2009, “The Fly” is enjoying an investment renaissance for the ages. With the grace of Santa Claus and God, I’ve been able to destroy my enemies and crush the markets, with ease and with dignity, all the while inventing the greatest investment tool ever known to mankind, The PPT.
Halfway done, I have a 65% cash position and decent sized holdings in FLS, CIEN, FTK, GS, SD, SHLD and TNA—just to name a few. My goal is to return more than 100% this year, which, if accomplished, will be the first time I’ve enjoyed triple digit returns since 2003. I am not particularly sure where this market is going, 3-6 months out. If forced to guess, I’d say we are going much, much lower. But, you never know what the Fed has up their gay sleeves. Keep in mind, the tougher things get, the greater the likelihood the Fed will intervene. Hell, we may get another stimulus package before it’s all said and done. After all, it is an election year.
So, we are half way through 2009 and the market is flat. I must admit, I am shocked by how well the market has responded to a flurry of bad news. However, I understand why it is going higher and that is why I am up 60%, year to date, with a very bullish bias.
In late 2008, I made some dire predictions for the market, underpinned by delusions of deflation. I thought, there was no way the credit markets could return, and as a result, commercial real estate firms/underfunded banks would fold under the pressure. Must to my surprise, the exact opposite occurred.
Maybe it was the devils from Goldman or just plain Leprechaun luck, but the credit markets are back in full force, financing all types of stupid shit. Hell, even the ipo market is back. One tell on how the credit markets are doing is via the price action in [[JNK]] . Put it on your little monitors and watch it very closely.
If you recall, I predicted a 50% first half slide in the markets and a monster 2nd half recovery. My year end prediction was for a decline of 15% in the Dow, which is still entirely possible. We have been blessed with some sort of odd version of “investment inflation,” whereby the price of “stuff” has increased due to asset allocation, as opposed to fundamentals. Some people scoff at such a move as manipulative fuckery. However, I view it in a very bullish way.
See folks, money is circulating again and it’s being invested, in a very egregious way. There are strong signals coming out of the technology space, in particular 4g/smartphone/semiconductor names. And, for the love of green shoots and red robins, oil stocks are ripping out the eyeballs of overzealous short sellers.
Going forward, I believe the markets will trend higher, until it is proven the “so called recovery” is false. To be honest, I have no way of knowing if the economy is going to continue to rebound; that’s the whole beauty of this rally: no one knows what the fuck is going on. We’re all sort of throwing shit against the wall and hoping that it sticks. In my estimation, we have at least another month or two of “easy money,” as economic data is obscured by government fuckery and inventory restocking. If the recovery is proven to be legit, we will end the year above 10,000. If not, well, we might see the market go back to the lows.
As a manager of assets, it is my job to gauge the temperament of the market and make directional bets. In my opinion, as long as people have hope, the market will go higher. Right now, much to the chagrin of many bearshitters, this market is chockful of hope.
As for my investment style, it is about to change in a dramatic way. I will be moving away from the randomly selected small cap space, in exchange for a heavy technology oriented theme, as outlined, exclusively, on The PPT. It will be egregiously Godly. And, most importantly, it will be profitable.
Via The PPT, here are the top 50 winners for 2009, thus far: