Well, we are halfway through 2010 and the markets are reeling. Despite minor year to date losses, the recent trends have been horrific, particularly in commodity related names. As always, there is a fight being played out, live in the markets, between the inflation and deflation crews. On one hand, common sense dictates that we are about to enter some brand of fucked up inflation, based upon the behavior of the Federal Reserve and incessant “bail out anyone” attitude of the Federal Government.
On the other hand, people seem to forget the banks are lying about their losses, thanks to new accounting rules, and will get sucked into the deflationary vortex, hard core, if some of the sovereign debt risk worsens. The losses are too great for the banks to bear. As a result, there will be a seizing up of credit, effectively pushing us over the ledge into the whimsical world of “double dip recession.” Plus, there seems to be a worldwide movement against easy money, vis a vis “austerity” measures and “responsible budgeting” here in the states.
Let me be clear: I am not here to tell you what is better for the economy. I am here because I know what will help stocks go higher. Say what you want about easy money and fucked up bailouts; but Wall Street likes it. Take the punch bowl away and we will all feel the pain immediately, some more so than others, indeud. Maybe we need to bite the bullet and throw this fucker into a deflationary vortex, so we can all come out “cool as fuck” on the other end, with mohawks and shit. However, something tells me deflation will lead to war and war will lead to a kick ass market. So, maybe I am for deflation?
Year to date, I am up 37% for clients and much more for myself. Coming off of 60% and 90% returns in 2008 and 2009, “The Fly” is enjoying an investment renaissance for the ages. With the grace of Santa Claus and God, I’ve been able to destroy my enemies and crush the markets, with ease and with dignity, all the while inventing the greatest investment tool ever known to mankind, The PPT.
Halfway done, I have a 65% cash position and decent sized holdings in FLS, CIEN, FTK, GS, SD, SHLD and TNA—just to name a few. My goal is to return more than 100% this year, which, if accomplished, will be the first time I’ve enjoyed triple digit returns since 2003. I am not particularly sure where this market is going, 3-6 months out. If forced to guess, I’d say we are going much, much lower. But, you never know what the Fed has up their gay sleeves. Keep in mind, the tougher things get, the greater the likelihood the Fed will intervene. Hell, we may get another stimulus package before it’s all said and done. After all, it is an election year.