ALL SINNERS WILL BE PURIFIED

1,247 views

…In the fires of my redemption.

They were laughing at me last week when NDRM went lower; now they are dying 10,000 deaths.

I lightened up on LITB and NNA, in order to fold back into the matrix. As much as I like those stocks, they aren’t working. Fundamentally robust ideas include FCAU and WETF. With Fiat, you get Ferrarri and Maserati, both premium european brands in an environment of a trashy euro. Expect material upside revisions in FCAU based off dollar strength.

With WETF, they are once again enjoying a ‘super-nova’ event, with HEWG, their hedged  German ETF. The last major ETF of this magnitude was DXJ, which put shares to these levels a few years back. If you recall, I played it from $9.

I didn’t buy any of the above stocks because they already moved. I tell you these stories so you can put them onto your radar.

Stocks that I did buy, however, include MDVN (fucking powerhouse drug), TPH, SLCA, ECR and MOAR NDRM.

Torture

1,201 views

I’ve begun liquidating some of my positions. I sold out of XLRN and AN already and have designs to sell more. This tape isn’t one that I am interesting in bearing through. To go from +80 to -100 in ten minutes without any news is a little fucked up, if you ask me. More than that, we are starting to border on the inane, with european markets trouncing ours, all the while oil knifes lower by 5%.

I can’t sit here and watch this rubbish any longer.

Sold $ETR, Bought $AMGN

931 views

I’ve had ETR for a while and felt like booking the trade. With AMGN almost 10% down from highs, yielding 2%, I bought a small position.

I’M A GASOLINE MAN

1,278 views

I bought shares of MUSA and TA, after cutting loose long term holdings in GOGO and NUE.

Booked My First Big Win of 2015

1,218 views

I sold out of BLCM for a +24% one week return and rolled proceeds into NDRM. This biotech lotto is the real deal, even better than the chinese varietal.

The Fly is Now a Homebuilder

1,223 views

I sold out of most of my FEYE position. Being up a little more than 10% in a stock that nearly destroyed, me earlier this year, has left me somewhat satisfied. Therefore, before things start to go astray once again, I took profits.

With the proceeds, I allocated my January funds to HABT now. I do not want to wait for a SHAK ipo to buy. This stock will be $45 by then.

I also started a position in TPH, as it is my belief that US homebuilders are on the verge of busting loose.

When I buy a stock, I embody said industry. Therefore, it goes without saying, I am now a burger flipping homebuilder.

Another Broken Industry For the Holiday’s

1,907 views

Thanks to the ABBV-ESRX deal, shares of hedge fund hotel GILD have been swooning lower. All of the biotech gurus I’ve read are declaring this to be a ‘seminal moment” in biotech land, whereby a pricing war is just around the corner. Whether this is factual or simply conjecture remains to be seen.

Nonetheless, what can be seen is GILD with an 8 handle and a sector down 3% for the day. These stocks have been on gorilla raping runs, so there is significant downside.

Let’s summarize 2014 by looking at the leadership sectors.

Oil and Gas: broken

Biotech: in the process of breaking

Social Media: broken

Technology: doing okay

Maybe 2015 will feature a new set of leaders, such as homebuilders, apparel stores, auto dealerships and names attached to a wealthy consumer. One thing is for certain, 2014 would’ve been a lot easier, and gentler, had I just bought DIA, QQQ and SPY. The art of stock picking has never been harder, which beckons one to seriously pay attention to asset allocation.

Now is a good time to go over your holdings, cut loose the chaff and structure to win in 2015.

Having said that, I sold out of YY for AN today.

NOTE: For Xmas eve, iBC will be featuring two more former bloggers. Stay tuned.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,778 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,627 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

ALL SINNERS WILL BE PURIFIED

1,247 views

…In the fires of my redemption.

They were laughing at me last week when NDRM went lower; now they are dying 10,000 deaths.

I lightened up on LITB and NNA, in order to fold back into the matrix. As much as I like those stocks, they aren’t working. Fundamentally robust ideas include FCAU and WETF. With Fiat, you get Ferrarri and Maserati, both premium european brands in an environment of a trashy euro. Expect material upside revisions in FCAU based off dollar strength.

With WETF, they are once again enjoying a ‘super-nova’ event, with HEWG, their hedged  German ETF. The last major ETF of this magnitude was DXJ, which put shares to these levels a few years back. If you recall, I played it from $9.

I didn’t buy any of the above stocks because they already moved. I tell you these stories so you can put them onto your radar.

Stocks that I did buy, however, include MDVN (fucking powerhouse drug), TPH, SLCA, ECR and MOAR NDRM.

Torture

1,201 views

I’ve begun liquidating some of my positions. I sold out of XLRN and AN already and have designs to sell more. This tape isn’t one that I am interesting in bearing through. To go from +80 to -100 in ten minutes without any news is a little fucked up, if you ask me. More than that, we are starting to border on the inane, with european markets trouncing ours, all the while oil knifes lower by 5%.

I can’t sit here and watch this rubbish any longer.

Sold $ETR, Bought $AMGN

931 views

I’ve had ETR for a while and felt like booking the trade. With AMGN almost 10% down from highs, yielding 2%, I bought a small position.

I’M A GASOLINE MAN

1,278 views

I bought shares of MUSA and TA, after cutting loose long term holdings in GOGO and NUE.

Booked My First Big Win of 2015

1,218 views

I sold out of BLCM for a +24% one week return and rolled proceeds into NDRM. This biotech lotto is the real deal, even better than the chinese varietal.

The Fly is Now a Homebuilder

1,223 views

I sold out of most of my FEYE position. Being up a little more than 10% in a stock that nearly destroyed, me earlier this year, has left me somewhat satisfied. Therefore, before things start to go astray once again, I took profits.

With the proceeds, I allocated my January funds to HABT now. I do not want to wait for a SHAK ipo to buy. This stock will be $45 by then.

I also started a position in TPH, as it is my belief that US homebuilders are on the verge of busting loose.

When I buy a stock, I embody said industry. Therefore, it goes without saying, I am now a burger flipping homebuilder.

Another Broken Industry For the Holiday’s

1,907 views

Thanks to the ABBV-ESRX deal, shares of hedge fund hotel GILD have been swooning lower. All of the biotech gurus I’ve read are declaring this to be a ‘seminal moment” in biotech land, whereby a pricing war is just around the corner. Whether this is factual or simply conjecture remains to be seen.

Nonetheless, what can be seen is GILD with an 8 handle and a sector down 3% for the day. These stocks have been on gorilla raping runs, so there is significant downside.

Let’s summarize 2014 by looking at the leadership sectors.

Oil and Gas: broken

Biotech: in the process of breaking

Social Media: broken

Technology: doing okay

Maybe 2015 will feature a new set of leaders, such as homebuilders, apparel stores, auto dealerships and names attached to a wealthy consumer. One thing is for certain, 2014 would’ve been a lot easier, and gentler, had I just bought DIA, QQQ and SPY. The art of stock picking has never been harder, which beckons one to seriously pay attention to asset allocation.

Now is a good time to go over your holdings, cut loose the chaff and structure to win in 2015.

Having said that, I sold out of YY for AN today.

NOTE: For Xmas eve, iBC will be featuring two more former bloggers. Stay tuned.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,778 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,627 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

Previous Posts by Dr. Fly
Easy There, Lads
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