Last Nibble, I Promise

1,125 views

I doubled my ECR position, turned off the computer, and walked away.

Well, actually, I am still on the computer, as evidenced by you reading this. However, I will be shutting it soon.

3, 2, 1– bye.

RERAX, I AM A DOCTOR

1,639 views

I added to YY, super-sizing my position in the process.

I also added to ICPT.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,723 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,612 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

Small Nibbles, Just in Case

1,289 views

Seeing the energy complex rip off heads and shit down shoulders, I added to my SLCA and FMSA positions. In addition to that, I bought more BALT, seeing the shippers starting to percolate. If indeed we are to rally, the fucking shippers have a 100% move in them.

My other energy lotto play, purchased the other day, WRES, is ripping off mammaries.

Another Oil Buy

2,362 views

It goes against everything I hold dear: logic and reason, which is why I am doing the opposite and buying it.

I added to my SLCA position. I have ear marked some money for a final purchase. God willing, our Saudi overlords will grant us respite.

MAKING LATERAL MOVES

1,100 views

For tax purposes, I did a bunch of reshuffling today. After these sales, I am done locking in losses.

Some partial sales include YELP, TRIP, SLCA.

Full sales COP, CHK, T and OZM.

I replaced those stocks with BABA, OXY, MS, FMSA, ACAT and ETR.

IT’S STARTING TO GET REAL COLORFUL AROUND HERE

1,788 views

I added to SLCA, BTU, YELP and GPRO.

I thought the market would reverse after seeing early strength in energy related names. Truth be told, oil is flat today, so tomorrow has to be a bounce day for the commodity else oil names will get crushed again.

Nevertheless, I felt this was a better than average shot at a tradeable bottom, with The PPT flashing Oversold this morning and all. If we bounce here, expect to see Jack in the Boxes appear on this site, knifing you in the face for talking all that shit.

UPDATE: I sold HGG and bought FMSA

Fly Buy: $HABT

953 views

This is my second of twelve purchases, over a 12 month horizon, of $HABT.

Last Nibble, I Promise

1,125 views

I doubled my ECR position, turned off the computer, and walked away.

Well, actually, I am still on the computer, as evidenced by you reading this. However, I will be shutting it soon.

3, 2, 1– bye.

RERAX, I AM A DOCTOR

1,639 views

I added to YY, super-sizing my position in the process.

I also added to ICPT.

An Interesting Play Off Cheap Brent and The Destruction of US Oil Production

2,723 views

Here is an article on VLCC rates from late November.

But with the Brent oil price now 40 percent lower than July, there could be more VLCC fixtures as refiners bought oil for storage, the Singapore broker said.

VLCC rates for the benchmark route from the Middle East to Japan climbed to almost W64.50 on Thursday, up from just under W51 a week ago, the highest since Feb. 18. Rates are the equivalent of nearly $60,500 per day.

Day rates were about $60,000 then.

Now they’re at 5 year highs, over $81,500 per day.

Why is this happening?

Supply is tight, real tight, as is always the case in December. As the Dry Bulk Index implodes, the oil tanker rates explode. Perhaps it has something to do with plunging Brent prices are producers storing crude in these tankers. Longer term, if US production is coming down, due to high cost producers in the shale, it makes 100% perfect sense to believe that we will, once again, begin to import crude from overseas.

Saudi Arabia wins. Yes?

Here are 3 mo charts of the Dirty Tanker Index (unrefined crude) and the Clean Tanker Index (refined product)
CrudeRefined

The reason why FRO has struggled in recent years is two fold.

1. Debt burden.
2. Lack of volume due to the surge in US oil production.

Well, they just restructured more than $20 million in debt and I don’t think we need to worry about domestic oil production any longer. With oil coming in again, I sold out of BALT for a staggering 27% loss and rolled half the proceeds into FRO. I will deploy the rest of those proceeds on a dip.

In other words, for the New Year to come, I am discarding the losers and starting with fresh ideas.

Closing a Chapter, Opening an Old One Again

1,612 views

I closed out of the rest of my GPRO position, squandering a 25% gain and turning it into a 15% loss–a cardinal sin in trading.

In light of the Sony scandal and my desire for revenge trading, I moved those assets over to FEYE. This is the same stock that fucking destroyed me and left me in a tub filled with ice with a kidney missing, back in May. I had sold in the high $40’s and now I am back in, as the p/s ratio is now a reasonable 12x.

Small Nibbles, Just in Case

1,289 views

Seeing the energy complex rip off heads and shit down shoulders, I added to my SLCA and FMSA positions. In addition to that, I bought more BALT, seeing the shippers starting to percolate. If indeed we are to rally, the fucking shippers have a 100% move in them.

My other energy lotto play, purchased the other day, WRES, is ripping off mammaries.

Another Oil Buy

2,362 views

It goes against everything I hold dear: logic and reason, which is why I am doing the opposite and buying it.

I added to my SLCA position. I have ear marked some money for a final purchase. God willing, our Saudi overlords will grant us respite.

MAKING LATERAL MOVES

1,100 views

For tax purposes, I did a bunch of reshuffling today. After these sales, I am done locking in losses.

Some partial sales include YELP, TRIP, SLCA.

Full sales COP, CHK, T and OZM.

I replaced those stocks with BABA, OXY, MS, FMSA, ACAT and ETR.

IT’S STARTING TO GET REAL COLORFUL AROUND HERE

1,788 views

I added to SLCA, BTU, YELP and GPRO.

I thought the market would reverse after seeing early strength in energy related names. Truth be told, oil is flat today, so tomorrow has to be a bounce day for the commodity else oil names will get crushed again.

Nevertheless, I felt this was a better than average shot at a tradeable bottom, with The PPT flashing Oversold this morning and all. If we bounce here, expect to see Jack in the Boxes appear on this site, knifing you in the face for talking all that shit.

UPDATE: I sold HGG and bought FMSA

Fly Buy: $HABT

953 views

This is my second of twelve purchases, over a 12 month horizon, of $HABT.

Previous Posts by Dr. Fly
Fly Buy: $COH
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