Time to Update the GARP Index

By the way, Seeking Alpha continues to defecate themselves with AMBA spiraling higher.

One of the added features to The PPT is the GARP index (growth at a reasonable price). I added this feature last year after people requested to have some longer term ideas thrown at them from my penthouse apartment. Over the past year, the GARP index returned in excess of 30%, excluding dividends. The chart got messed up after we updated the index in June; but it still tells the story.

GARP

The index is comprised of 15 stocks, diversified amongst the 10 principle sectors. It is updated only twice per annum, once in January and again in June. Here are the 6 month results of the current members.

GARP2

I’ve been researching for the new 2014 GARP index for more than a month and will be unveiling it after pagan Xmas.

As an aside: BALT.

Look at Capesize rates this morning!
CAPES

Simple Trading, Using The PPT

A few years back I demonstrated, using a spec account, how I used The PPT‘s algorithms in trading a $100k account into a million, in less than a year. I was using leverage, options, and 3x ETFs. Truth be told, I haven’t been trading ETFs in more than a year, for reasons unbeknownst to me.

2013 has been a great year for the buy and hold types. But it’s not always gonna be this easy. The very best part of The PPT is the Hybrid Oversold signal. To sum it up in layman’s terms, the oversold/overbought signals measure stress points and predicts areas of exact inflection– using fundamentals, technicals, bonds, forex and commodity inputs. The scores are processed and a reading is given, using history as a reference point. My theory, from the beginning, was that markets always behave in the same manner. The bubbles and swoons might have different labels, but the price action is the same. I’ve proven this to be true, at an 80% accuracy rate, ever since we launched The PPT in 2008.

Using only the Hybrid OS signal, TNA as a vehicle, and a holding period of 10 days, you would have made over 100% on your money during 2013. This is an especially good number because risk is considerably less than simply buying and holding. An investor would’ve made just 10 buys/ 9 sales (TNA buy is active since 12/11), being exposed to the market for no more than 100 days.

Here are the results.
Screen Shot 2013-12-16 at 5.16.27 PM

$10k to $21k in one year, with less than 100 days invested.

According to the Laws of Mathematics, We Are Now OVERSOLD

I was going to sell a few things, but have been easily swayed to go to the gym instead.

BEHOLD the magic of The PPT

OS

 

Naturally, trends are made to be broken, so keep this in consideration before mortgaging the house.

 

UPDATE: I sold JAZZ (+8%) and TRLA (-12%), in order to make room for other/better stocks that are now cheap.

Talking My Own Book: So How Accurate is The PPT’s Oversold Signal?

I know some of you call into question the algorithms touted here, almost on a daily basis. You mumble to yourself “how accurate, really, is this stupid signal he is always yapping about?”

First of all, what is a Hybrid Oversold Signal?

The word “hybrid” represents the blend of both technical and fundamental data. Every stock inside of The PPT is measured by 5 technical and fundamental factors, thew blended together using my ‘top secret’ formula to derive a hybrid score. When that score is low enough, it triggers and OVERSOLD signal. As soon as the signal is triggered, it is tracked for a period of 10 trading days and the results are displayed, for every stock and ETF in the system. Well, for ETFs, since they don’t have fundamentals, only the technical score is tracked.

The overall hybrid, essentially, is a composite of all of the scores. When the selling pressure goes ‘full retard’, more often than not, the overall hybrid triggers OS, due to the inherent oversold nature of the constituent securities.

The overall hybrid oversold and overbought signals are tracked for accuracy and the % gain or loss over the 10 day period it is tracked.

Here are the results over 3,6,12 and 36 month periods.

3 month
3
6 month
6
12 month
12
36 month
36

I am sure it’s just an odd coincidence.

Basing My Long Silver Trade Off Mathematical Precision

I am a firm believer in mean reversion, the proverbial rubber band stretching too far and then snapping. As you know, for fundamental reasons, as well as philosophical, I’ve been a vocal bear on precious metals, having just closed out a short position in AG. Prefacing those beliefs at the forefront, I can tell you that silver, as well as gold, have indeud breached the outer stress bands and might be due for a bounce, perhaps a very big one.

Using my algorithms inside The PPT, which specializes in finding mean reversion plays, silver and gold are being flagged as being OVERSOLD and the inverse ETFs being OVERBOUGHT. Before I show you the statistics, just know that I am not a fool and understand that mathematical models are meant to be broken, when speaking of statistics and correlations. So, I enter this long AG trade, which is now my largest position, with eyes wide open and a bias against it.

UGLD
UGLD
GLL
GLL

HEader
Gold Oversold
Gold
Silver Oversold
Silver
And GLD
GLD

Based upon what the algos are telling me, this trade should be profitable within 3 trading days, peaking out in 7. It’s also worth noting that this trade is contingent upon silver remaining down today, therefore allowing the Overbought and Oversold indicators to register on a closing basis.

Technical scores are in a state of constant flux, ranked on 5 core principles.
Tech

 

All categories are ranked on a scale from 1-5, 5 being the highest/best score possible. There are other factors that are built into the scores, which are not seen here. We like to call them “Sub Rosa” and “Sixth Column” factors, that include price fluctuations in all major currencies, commodities and bonds. We’ve tried to fine tune the scores based on historical precedence, all to do with correlation. However, eventually, correlations become unreliable, as time and news events change the trading paradigm.

We’ve adjusted for this by allowing our algorithms to “reset” every 3,6 and, 12 months–which accent our core historical algos. This might sound a little complex, but it isn’t.

It’s a tool that helps me survey the market from a high perch, find things that are hidden that I would most certainly miss if doing it manually.

I am giving this AG trade until next Friday to yield 5-10% on my money.

ATTENTION: THERE IS A NEW FEATURE INSIDE OF THE PPT

This being the year of generosity, I’ve decided to publish the first ever “What The PPT is Saying Today” report inside of iBC, in order to show you what it will look like. Pay attention because it shall never be posted in these quarters again.


The Anatomy of a Win

By the way, we made it easier for you to toggle through the scrolling data above. Go to the front page and put your mouse on the data and it will expand to show you everything, AND MORE.

Futures are somewhat higher. However, I have my reservations about getting back in with any size. Nevertheless, I am going to show you some interesting things, using The PPT (why the hell not? We’re all charitable here).

First, here are the top rated stocks by hybrid score (a combination of both fundamental and technical ratings, proprietary to the system). For added convenience, I narrowed that list down to companies that have 20%+ quarterly revenue growth with ROE’s greater than 10 and minimum market cap of $500 million.

Next, here are the top rated Industries by the system, again sorted by hybrid score.

Out of that list, my favorite industry happens to be silver. I am afraid of werewolves and have stockpiled shares of a certain silver company.

Here are the current member rankings of the silver industry.

As you can see, EXK is wedged in there at no. 6, with a score of 3.71 (anything rated above 3 is a “buy”). However, the score wasn’t always this high. As a matter of fact, just a few days ago, when I added to my position by 33%, the score was considerably lower and was flagged as being OVERSOLD by the system (the OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD flags act like rubber bands, helping users discern buy and sell points for stocks, based upon historical precedence).

If you look below at the technical score of 1.00 on 7/20, that represented the lowest tech score over the past 12 months, qualifying it to be flagged as OVERSOLD by the system, prompting a system buy as a result.

What is the track record for buying EXK into OVERSOLD levels, based upon similar flags over the past 12 months?

After 3 days: flawless.

None of you fuckers are doing it like me. Don’t even pretend to be on the same level playing field.

Off to beat a few illegal mexicans senseless for getting paint on my floors.

Not Bad Enough

A milquetoast jobs report was exactly what the bearshitter ordered. As a result, markets are in plunge mode. I am not sure these numbers were weak enough to warrant any Fed action. Better late than never: now is a good time to step aside and watch the carnivale clowns throw fire bombs at each other.

Do I really need to be stock specific?

My 25% cash position will be bigger by the end of the day. I don’t have time to fuck around with bullshit and would rather cut my own head off than manage money through another swoon.

UPDATE: I sold out of CMI, bringing my cash position to 40%.

UPDATE II: The market is too oversold to short, so I will do nothing.

UPDATE III: This is why I am not shorting.

The PPT Algos flagging OS on QLD.

Courtesy of The PPT

These stocks were flagged Technically OB today, using our 12 month algos for a 10 day hold.

SHOMP, With Regards to Gold

This data is being hand delivered to you this evening, with a wax seal, from the confines of The PPT. You can thank me later.

GLD flagged OVERSOLD today on all of our algorithms.

Over the past 12 months, this signal has yet to fail when holding for 5 days or more.

Time to Update the GARP Index

By the way, Seeking Alpha continues to defecate themselves with AMBA spiraling higher.

One of the added features to The PPT is the GARP index (growth at a reasonable price). I added this feature last year after people requested to have some longer term ideas thrown at them from my penthouse apartment. Over the past year, the GARP index returned in excess of 30%, excluding dividends. The chart got messed up after we updated the index in June; but it still tells the story.

GARP

The index is comprised of 15 stocks, diversified amongst the 10 principle sectors. It is updated only twice per annum, once in January and again in June. Here are the 6 month results of the current members.

GARP2

I’ve been researching for the new 2014 GARP index for more than a month and will be unveiling it after pagan Xmas.

As an aside: BALT.

Look at Capesize rates this morning!
CAPES

Simple Trading, Using The PPT

A few years back I demonstrated, using a spec account, how I used The PPT‘s algorithms in trading a $100k account into a million, in less than a year. I was using leverage, options, and 3x ETFs. Truth be told, I haven’t been trading ETFs in more than a year, for reasons unbeknownst to me.

2013 has been a great year for the buy and hold types. But it’s not always gonna be this easy. The very best part of The PPT is the Hybrid Oversold signal. To sum it up in layman’s terms, the oversold/overbought signals measure stress points and predicts areas of exact inflection– using fundamentals, technicals, bonds, forex and commodity inputs. The scores are processed and a reading is given, using history as a reference point. My theory, from the beginning, was that markets always behave in the same manner. The bubbles and swoons might have different labels, but the price action is the same. I’ve proven this to be true, at an 80% accuracy rate, ever since we launched The PPT in 2008.

Using only the Hybrid OS signal, TNA as a vehicle, and a holding period of 10 days, you would have made over 100% on your money during 2013. This is an especially good number because risk is considerably less than simply buying and holding. An investor would’ve made just 10 buys/ 9 sales (TNA buy is active since 12/11), being exposed to the market for no more than 100 days.

Here are the results.
Screen Shot 2013-12-16 at 5.16.27 PM

$10k to $21k in one year, with less than 100 days invested.

According to the Laws of Mathematics, We Are Now OVERSOLD

I was going to sell a few things, but have been easily swayed to go to the gym instead.

BEHOLD the magic of The PPT

OS

 

Naturally, trends are made to be broken, so keep this in consideration before mortgaging the house.

 

UPDATE: I sold JAZZ (+8%) and TRLA (-12%), in order to make room for other/better stocks that are now cheap.

Talking My Own Book: So How Accurate is The PPT’s Oversold Signal?

I know some of you call into question the algorithms touted here, almost on a daily basis. You mumble to yourself “how accurate, really, is this stupid signal he is always yapping about?”

First of all, what is a Hybrid Oversold Signal?

The word “hybrid” represents the blend of both technical and fundamental data. Every stock inside of The PPT is measured by 5 technical and fundamental factors, thew blended together using my ‘top secret’ formula to derive a hybrid score. When that score is low enough, it triggers and OVERSOLD signal. As soon as the signal is triggered, it is tracked for a period of 10 trading days and the results are displayed, for every stock and ETF in the system. Well, for ETFs, since they don’t have fundamentals, only the technical score is tracked.

The overall hybrid, essentially, is a composite of all of the scores. When the selling pressure goes ‘full retard’, more often than not, the overall hybrid triggers OS, due to the inherent oversold nature of the constituent securities.

The overall hybrid oversold and overbought signals are tracked for accuracy and the % gain or loss over the 10 day period it is tracked.

Here are the results over 3,6,12 and 36 month periods.

3 month
3
6 month
6
12 month
12
36 month
36

I am sure it’s just an odd coincidence.

Basing My Long Silver Trade Off Mathematical Precision

I am a firm believer in mean reversion, the proverbial rubber band stretching too far and then snapping. As you know, for fundamental reasons, as well as philosophical, I’ve been a vocal bear on precious metals, having just closed out a short position in AG. Prefacing those beliefs at the forefront, I can tell you that silver, as well as gold, have indeud breached the outer stress bands and might be due for a bounce, perhaps a very big one.

Using my algorithms inside The PPT, which specializes in finding mean reversion plays, silver and gold are being flagged as being OVERSOLD and the inverse ETFs being OVERBOUGHT. Before I show you the statistics, just know that I am not a fool and understand that mathematical models are meant to be broken, when speaking of statistics and correlations. So, I enter this long AG trade, which is now my largest position, with eyes wide open and a bias against it.

UGLD
UGLD
GLL
GLL

HEader
Gold Oversold
Gold
Silver Oversold
Silver
And GLD
GLD

Based upon what the algos are telling me, this trade should be profitable within 3 trading days, peaking out in 7. It’s also worth noting that this trade is contingent upon silver remaining down today, therefore allowing the Overbought and Oversold indicators to register on a closing basis.

Technical scores are in a state of constant flux, ranked on 5 core principles.
Tech

 

All categories are ranked on a scale from 1-5, 5 being the highest/best score possible. There are other factors that are built into the scores, which are not seen here. We like to call them “Sub Rosa” and “Sixth Column” factors, that include price fluctuations in all major currencies, commodities and bonds. We’ve tried to fine tune the scores based on historical precedence, all to do with correlation. However, eventually, correlations become unreliable, as time and news events change the trading paradigm.

We’ve adjusted for this by allowing our algorithms to “reset” every 3,6 and, 12 months–which accent our core historical algos. This might sound a little complex, but it isn’t.

It’s a tool that helps me survey the market from a high perch, find things that are hidden that I would most certainly miss if doing it manually.

I am giving this AG trade until next Friday to yield 5-10% on my money.

ATTENTION: THERE IS A NEW FEATURE INSIDE OF THE PPT

This being the year of generosity, I’ve decided to publish the first ever “What The PPT is Saying Today” report inside of iBC, in order to show you what it will look like. Pay attention because it shall never be posted in these quarters again.


The Anatomy of a Win

By the way, we made it easier for you to toggle through the scrolling data above. Go to the front page and put your mouse on the data and it will expand to show you everything, AND MORE.

Futures are somewhat higher. However, I have my reservations about getting back in with any size. Nevertheless, I am going to show you some interesting things, using The PPT (why the hell not? We’re all charitable here).

First, here are the top rated stocks by hybrid score (a combination of both fundamental and technical ratings, proprietary to the system). For added convenience, I narrowed that list down to companies that have 20%+ quarterly revenue growth with ROE’s greater than 10 and minimum market cap of $500 million.

Next, here are the top rated Industries by the system, again sorted by hybrid score.

Out of that list, my favorite industry happens to be silver. I am afraid of werewolves and have stockpiled shares of a certain silver company.

Here are the current member rankings of the silver industry.

As you can see, EXK is wedged in there at no. 6, with a score of 3.71 (anything rated above 3 is a “buy”). However, the score wasn’t always this high. As a matter of fact, just a few days ago, when I added to my position by 33%, the score was considerably lower and was flagged as being OVERSOLD by the system (the OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD flags act like rubber bands, helping users discern buy and sell points for stocks, based upon historical precedence).

If you look below at the technical score of 1.00 on 7/20, that represented the lowest tech score over the past 12 months, qualifying it to be flagged as OVERSOLD by the system, prompting a system buy as a result.

What is the track record for buying EXK into OVERSOLD levels, based upon similar flags over the past 12 months?

After 3 days: flawless.

None of you fuckers are doing it like me. Don’t even pretend to be on the same level playing field.

Off to beat a few illegal mexicans senseless for getting paint on my floors.

Not Bad Enough

A milquetoast jobs report was exactly what the bearshitter ordered. As a result, markets are in plunge mode. I am not sure these numbers were weak enough to warrant any Fed action. Better late than never: now is a good time to step aside and watch the carnivale clowns throw fire bombs at each other.

Do I really need to be stock specific?

My 25% cash position will be bigger by the end of the day. I don’t have time to fuck around with bullshit and would rather cut my own head off than manage money through another swoon.

UPDATE: I sold out of CMI, bringing my cash position to 40%.

UPDATE II: The market is too oversold to short, so I will do nothing.

UPDATE III: This is why I am not shorting.

The PPT Algos flagging OS on QLD.

Courtesy of The PPT

These stocks were flagged Technically OB today, using our 12 month algos for a 10 day hold.

SHOMP, With Regards to Gold

This data is being hand delivered to you this evening, with a wax seal, from the confines of The PPT. You can thank me later.

GLD flagged OVERSOLD today on all of our algorithms.

Over the past 12 months, this signal has yet to fail when holding for 5 days or more.

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