Midnight Wisdom

I was in a house with lots of extravagant and elaborate vases. It was quite gay and somewhat disturbing, considering this man looked like he could break a brick wall with his face.

I’ve noticed, through my adventures meeting people with money, it (money) corrupts their fucking brains. The more money one has the crazier that fucker is, generally.

Some people get extremely cheap and like to play the welfare scene, with 20 mil in the checking account, picking aluminum cans out of the garbage. Others like to flaunt it with lambos and diamonds the size of televisions. Oh, let’s not forget art/rugs. Really rich folk love to splurge on that shit.

Don’t get me wrong: having money is my preferred state of existence. I’ve been through the worst of times and the best, with regards to money. Take me at my word: it is better to be a crazy boat shining rich dude, dancing on the hoods of Ferraris, than living in a housing tenement, with good marbles, in the Bronx.

Generally speaking, poor people lack confidence and accept a low standard of living. They pride themselves on “making a living” or a “decent wage,” providing the job includes fucking benefits. When, as a point in fact, they were not meant for greatness to begin with—so there.

The point of this article is to waste your time, as you now know—albeit in a very entertaining way. Just think about it, you are sitting in your “middle class chair,” waiting for some magic stock picks— and instead get nothing but jibber jabber and/or exteme bullshit. Believe me, “Horatio Clawhammer” aka “The Fly” aka “Plutonium Petey” aka “Senor Tropicana” will bring extreme heat to you fucking blogging faggots in 2009, via ridiculous stock picks. It is my gift. And, The PPT is absolutely incredible.

At the end of the day, there is no other website on the internets worthy of my blogroll, yet I have one anyway.

I am a kind Fly, indeed.

UPDATE: You know things are bad when the recession hits the rap scene.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEwSfbE9IXc&feature=related 450 300]

Incidentally, “The Fly” was sheltered from today’s inane melt up, via long SRS, short VNO, short KIM positions. My losses totaled less than 1%, mostly due to the run up in XOM and run down in DUG.

Also, my early purchases proved to be fruitful, as gains in BAC, TBT, C, ITW, VCLK, PFE and FAS extended throughout the day.

Life is all about killing the next guy. With that in mind, let me remind you that “The Fly” will eventually discard of you too, while chuckling at your most eventful capital losses.

Most people only remember the questions, without regard for the answers. I, on the other hand, remember both questions and answers, with the efficiency and acumen of an IBM super computer.

The idea that the “rally is just starting” is somewhat silly, considering how far we’ve come so soon. What is not silly is the mortuary state of the U.S. economy.

You can sit there all you want, collecting block headed Barack Obama collectible coins, while circle jerking to the likes of Dennis Kneale. However, “The Fly” will always be around to drop anvils and gay pianos on your head, when least expected.

With that being said, bear in mind, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly. My condition is one of perpetual success. My unremitting winning streaks are rarely interrupted for a period longer than 2 weeks. Hence, I warn you; with the seriousness of a stone cold killer inside, lurking, in the dressing room of Jim Cramer, don’t fuck with me—for sometime soon you will feel the sharp blade of “brick walled revenge”—effectively leaving your bullshit portfolios in a very bad/egregious “zeroed out” situation.

NOTE: One of my internet friends, Phil Pearlman, just started blogging. He’s a smart guy, who likes to collect Barack Obama coins and SHAM-WOW rags. Definitely worth blogrolling.

UPDATE: For my Southern brothers!

Poof. All equity sellers are done.

-Merlin

…you’re all losers anyway.

It’s funny how many of you were just drinking some cappuccino at the Taliban Cafe, readying to self detonate. Now, as a point in fact, the world has changed and your sentiments are extraordinarily optimistic.

Most of you shall be discounted as mere novice investors, unable to see more than 15 minutes in advance. A handful of you, in my estimation, are excellent investors. You know who you are.

Here’s the situation:

The underlying fundamentals are positively dreadful. However, stocks are going up anyway.

Why?

Well, for one, there are many people out there who believe a zero rate environment gives the green light for risking capital in equities, searching for return. Then there are the people who believe Barack the Builder’s insane trillion dollar money making plans will buoy the prices of basic materials. Hence, with that in mind, getting short dollars, short t-bills and long equities is the way to go, particularly commodity stocks.

In my estimation, everything mentioned above is a sideshow to what I deem to be of utmost importance, which is emerging markets.

I think it’s fair to say, emerging markets is where it’s at, if you are looking for growth. However, looking at their fudged data, one could make the assumption that they are fucked for an indefinite period of time. Moreover, one could also argue that once their surpluses shrink dramatically, via U.S. consumer being dead in the water, they will stop buying treasuries.

If that happens, well then, forget about a late year rally, to say the least. TBT will soar.

The real question is: can the U.S. keep the ponzi scheme going? Will the Fed succeed in reflating the economy and re-saddling a shit load of new debt on the backs of Joe the Plumber?

Most importantly, where will the earnings growth originate from, with banks in the penalty box and industrials under pressure from drastic slowdowns abroad?

In the interim, stocks are free to run higher. Hell, based upon opaque optimism, the Dow can stomp up to 10,000 and the S&P up to 1050.

The point: don’t get sold on the notion that the worst is behind us. Make your trades and enjoy the renewed faith in American stocks. But remember, stocks are most attractive when no one wants them. And, when everyone wants them, you are better off shooting yourself in the face with a howitzer, than getting long.

At the present, I am 20% long, 40% short and 40% in cash.

UPDATE: I sold short 5,000 XOM @ $80.66 and I bought 5,000 SMN at $35.64.

I am putting cash to work, which is burning a hole in my hand.

I bought the following:

VCLK, sub $7.10

ITW, sub $36.25

PFE, sub $18.05

C, sub $7

NOTE: This allocation is very small, less than 5% of assets. I will not rush into any trades, long or short.

NOTE II: My premise for buying VCLK is for personal reasons. Recently, iBankcoin started utilizing their services and I am impressed.

UPDATE: I allocated another 5% of my cash into the following:

BAC, sub $14.10

C, sub $7.05

NOV, sub $26.5

Also, to fully hedge my FAZ position, I bought FAS.

I bought a little VCLK this morning, which is essentially besides the main point. We are in the midst of a most dishonorable commodity rally.

See, here on iBankcoin, “The Fly” conducts himself in a certain ordained manner. He is a man of ethics and principal, unlike most bloggers. The very notion of investing, without conviction, is rather unsettling to me.

Take XOM for example: I am short from $82, yet find no concrete reason to cover my shorts. That’s conviction dear friends/enemies. Regrettably, being short RIG does not offer “The Fly” the same comforts, which in turn has forced me to cover my shorts in that particular name.

At the moment, I find it odd that the market is rallying, without the luxury and support of bank/commerical real estate stocks driving the limousine. What oil stocks are doing now is rather astounding, essentially pricing in $70 crude.

What’s important to me is the activity in t-bills. My position in TBT is finally starting to gain some traction. Amazingly enough, the telegraphed trade of shorting t-bills/long equities is ham and egging it, to use a rather loose term, all the way to the local bank teller.

With my vast sums of liquidity, I have placed minor bets in a variety of names, none of which should be of any importance to the likes of you. For you, I have purchased a small quantity of VCLK, at an undisclosed price, at an undisclosed time.

The first trading day of 2009 shall be remembered as a day that let basic resource stocks out of their respective cages, and into the showers of bearshitters, in order to bite their heads off. However, all other sectors, thus far, are sort of mailing in the trading day.

Until I see the frantic action spread, like a cancerous tumor, I shall not change my opinions of banks/commercial re, which incidentally is rather grim.

NOTE: Preferred bank shares caught a bid this morning, evidenced by strength in PGF and PGX. They are both worth a look.

The markets are on the verge of breaking out. As always, I am skeptical of any breakout, especially when they are espoused by coked out of their brains CNBC talking heads. And I do not mean the employees of CNBC, like Maria and Matt ” fat fuck” Nesto. I am talking about the assholes who are interviewed on the exchange floor, every fucking day, telling the audience how “cheap” equities are.

Nonetheless, even broken clocks are right twice per day. So, with the 50%+ cash that I have set aside, I am prepared to get long a select group of stocks, which I outlined here and here.

However, since everyone is all amp’d up, waiting for some sort of ’09 run, “The Fly” is prepared, if needed, to sell to you, twice mind you.

Again, as of now the trend is up. But, should the laws of reason creep back into the markets, effectively knee-capping the likes of Matt Nesto and cannon fodder like “Jim Goldman,” here is a list of potential short sales:

Basic Materials

LIHR, AU, SMG

Consumer Goods

NAV, PBI and SFD

Financial

DEI, FHN, MCO

Healthcare

THRX, HLS, ISIS

Industrials

CTX, PHM, RYL

Services

UAUA, CVC, RGC

Technology

RMBS, CCI, WBSN

Utilities

none worth considering. Maybe NI.

UPDATE: Video request, as per Holly Woodshedder

I’m drunker than you, no doubt.

No drinking and driving. And,no diving into empty swimming pools.