Get Drunk; Buy Stocks

Shorts in a bit of a murderhole here.

Bowling balls everywhere.

UPDATE: I bought 20,000 LVLT @ $1.04.

UPDATE II: I sold out of CRR @ $34.20

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIyX4tiA4hI 450 300]

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Semiconductor book to bill stands around .61. Look for that to increase, as factory utilizations rise. In Korea, factories are running north of 90%, in anticipation of fervent demand. However, in Taiwan (semiconductor capital of the world), they are only running at 60%. As utilizations rise, demand for tools and supplies will follow. As a point in fact, right now there are major supply shortages, which is sending the price of chips up.

Some plays include [[CDNS]], [[AMKR]], [[SPIL]], [[KLIC]], [[TQNT]], [[ASX]], [[TER]] and long shot [[ENTG]].

As [[TSM]] and [[UMC]] upgrade to next generation facilities (40nm, 32nm), parts suppliers like [[NVLS]], [[LRCX]], [[AMAT]], [[KLAC]], [[ASML]] and [[VARI]] are worth buying.

As 802.11 becomes mainstream, [[ATHR]], [[BRCM]] will be your dominant players, with [[NTGR]] not too far behind. [[ARUN]] is a minor player and takeover target. And, [[RFMD]], [[SWKS]] are plays on chips in handsets. As end user demand increases, so does their chips.

[[OVTI]] is a great iphone 3 play, due to [[AAPL]] contracting them for embedded cameras. OVTI also has back up cameras on cars.

The handset market is in the midst of transition, from idiotic flip phones to smart phones with touchscreens. [[STAR]] dominates the core router market in the U.S. with 80% CDMA share. Touchscreen supply and design makers [[SYNA]] and [[CY]] will benefit from phones going buttonless to iphone-like touchscreens. [[CLS]] is a dominant contract manufacturer for the handset market.

I could see [[CSCO]] eating STAR whole for lunch.

Demand for LCD screens have spiked, recently. As a result, prices are ripping higher, particularly for small screens (16×9). [[GLW]] makes the glass and [[AUO]] makes the damn tv. Margins are improving.

Due to bandwidth demand, thanks in large part to smart phones, 3g networks are stretched. As a result, [[VZ]], [[VOD]], and most major telcos, are upgrading to 4g. Key players will include: [[STAR]], [[ERiC]], [[ALU]], [[CIEN]] and [[LVLT]]—amongst others.

Bottom line: The above is a story that will play out over an extended period of time. I do not expect the above stocks to go up in a straight line. Food for thought.

UPDATE: I bought 10,000 CDNS @ $ 4.81 and 5,000 NVLS @ $17.57.

UPDATE II: I bought 10,000 [[ARUN]] @ $4.45

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As much as it pains me, once again, I changed my mind, with regards to the future prospects of the stock market. After all, I am a fucking human being, with objective abilities to make adjustments as new information comes along. Others, with much smaller brains, are rigid in their beliefs. Those people get their fucking eyebrows punched off on a regular basis, due to their investment inadequacies.

The fact that Goldman is now forecasting 8%+ gdp growth for China, up from 6, tells me the stimulus packages around the world are having a positive effect. The fact that our 3g network is stretched thin, due to the popularity of smart phones and other bandwidth hungry devices, makes me a bull on 4g expansion. The fact that companies are able to get financing in the bond market, takes away the worst case scenario, that I thought was possible, for a multitude of companies. The fact that oil has not collapsed makes me think there is a reason why it’s hanging around $50. The fact that semiconductor companies, particularly foundries, are investing in better tools/better processes, during this decline, makes me believe the industry is due for a significant turn around.

In short, I didn’t see it a few weeks ago; but I see it now. Now, this could be a blip in the economic seismic chart; but I have to acknowledge the positive signs , pertaining to the economy and how it affects the stock market. For now, the deflationary vortex thesis has to be shelved, in exchange for one of possible and potential reflation (yikes).

There I said it.

I am a bit pressed for time now. But, in short, I am bullish on a variety of semiconductor names and have a few more worth throwing on the barbie.

More on this later.

UPDATE: I sold out of GMXR @ $9.50

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Ladies and Losers,

I am here to present a solution to the current credit crisis, via large institutional sponsored short squeezes, which will effectively “bake the balls” of all remaining short sellers—putting them into thin layered pine boxes. Quite frankly, it is not enough to see them wandering the streets of Manhattan, at all odd hours of the night, picking out sandwiches from the garbage cans.

If I may propose, I’d like to run over such said miscreants, with oversized sanitation trucks, then toss them into portable lit fireplaces—for proper burial of course.

Now many of you, my kind, benevolent readership, find yourselves in the back of a jam sandwich, short stocks into criminal balance sheet games. I beg of you to keep pursuing this course of action, for you make excellent tinder inside of my inferno funhouse.

Without further delay, I gift you 10 short squeeze ideas, all courtesy and praise go to the magnanimous gentlemen of The PPT for providing the data.

[[GPI]], [[TSL]], [[BKS]], [[CSR]], [[BUCY]], [[SFI]], [[TRLG]], [[WNR]], [[JASO]], [[CRM]].

In addition, here is a list of possible takeover tech stocks, considering the M&A market is perking up a bit.

[[ATHR]], [[ARUN]], [[COGT]], [[DRIV]], [[SNPS]], [[WFR]], [[TTWO]] and [[NTGR]]

NOTE: Unlike some of my iBC colleagues, I implore you to ignore the SEC and let them set ruling upon the short sellers. It makes for a funner market. Thanks!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfTAv8htci8 450 300]

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Today is a classic bounce day, which will inevitably lead to an egregious short squeeze. For the day, I did very little, unwilling to sell or buy. I sort of just sat here, hyper active off large caffeine intakes, twiddling my thumbs, going about my business in a dignified and honorable manner.

At the close, I will regain approximately half of what I surrendered during yesterday’s mud stomping. I am sticking to a thesis, no matter what you jelly fish eating sandbag makers think.

I speed down freeways, doing 125 mph, in diamond encrusted time machines, while you pick weeds out of your bullshit garden.

My losses in FAZ/SRS/FXP are acceptable, while long rifuckulous movers, like GMXR, ALU, ODP and TBSI.

There isn’t much to say, since the market is behaving exactly as it should. Just know, this is not the time to get bold with short positions. There are insidious forces behind this short squeeze, which will force the blood out of your brains, if you are not careful. It is indisputable, there are signs of improvement within tech. On top of that, there are cash rich companies on the prowl for mergers and acquisitions.

Let’s all celebrate under the umbrella of free money and criminal balance sheet games.

Here, here. Indeud!

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No need to apologize or kneel down at my throne. “The Fly” knows you can’t help yourself, thinking like a small retarded baboon—in pursuit of a moving banana tree. I’ve been bowling on people, such as yourself, for many, many years now. But this isn’t about me. Let’s talk about the market, shall we?

The market is obeying previous trends, as outlined by Plutonium Petey in The PPT, and I quote:

“My take: At a minimum, there was no rush to short the market, following the big drop in Hybrid scores. This is why I did not sell my longs and short the market in any size today. Out of all previous 15%+ dip in Hybrid, 3 out of 4 times the market traded up the next day.”

Believe me, no one wants to see the market drown in its own blood more than me. It’s just not time for that to happen.  Fucking deal with it, assholes.

Right here, right now, I am enjoying the momo in select names, like STAR, TBSI, ODP and ALU. In all seriousness, the current 3g network is being stretched thin. Look for telcos to expand their efforts for a 4g network, with all of its trimmings. As unbelievable as it may seem, the networkers and wireless operators have a bright future.

As for the banks and cre, I own a small amount of SRS/FAZ and will hold it indefinitely. It is my belief that the rally will cease to exist in May. So, barring a huge dip, I will hold onto my current shorts and add to them in May.

Let this be a lesson: never fuck with “The Fly,” even when he appears to be losing badly. Most likely, he is clandestinely winning.

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I have cash to spend, but choose to leave it idle, in order to have “special opportunity” liquidity. My conviction for my current positions may be at 100%; but I will not spend the 5-10% of cash in reserve, unless of course it was used for a “special opportunity.”

I never want to be in a position where I am forced to sell something, in order to finance a buy. I will gladly sell for profit or for a stupid loss. But there is nothing worse than having a great situation, but not having funds to buy. That is why I try to keep 5-10% in cash at all times. Just don’t even acknowledge the money. Make believe it isn’t there.

Special opportunities can be rumor mill stuff, market dislocations or even key reversals. In my opinion, this morning’s dip —almost— warrants a market dislocation buy, mainly due to the semi’s not acknowledging a significant uptick in business. I mean, fucking [[TXN]] beat the street. Those queers never beat anything.

Into this dip, I want to be long 4g plays [[ALU]] and [[STAR]]. And, I like [[TBSI]], [[ODP]], [[CAVM]], [[CIEN]], [[GMXR]], [[LVLT]], [[CROX]] and [[TER]].

One final thing, I want to acknowledge the kickass stock picking work of Chart Addict. That fucker has been knocking the cover off the ball, most recently with his [[THC]] and [[FEED]] calls. Great job.

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A wide variety of earnings sucked balls this morning, as the ill effects of the economy kick in. However, on a brighter note, M&A is back, with BRCM ripping out ELX for a song.

If news is what you need, my man CRONKITE will hook you up.

Bottom line: RFMD caught an Oppy upgrade this morning and TXN beat earnings. The idiots from Texas NEVER beat on earnings. Expect to see better than expected earnings coming from the chips and more of the same criminality from the banks.

God speed.

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The blasphemous IT department at iBC, finally, caved into my demands and redesigned the tool bar. Enjoy it with my compliments. Note the drop down on the Peanut Gallery. Some of you will appreciate that.

The winner of iBankCoin’s Final Four contest needs to email me at Flybroker-at-Gmail.com, in order to collect bounty.

Also, expect bowling balls to come your way, shortly.

And, finally, I have a devious surprise in store for the iBC collective. A surprise that will please a handful, but anger a great many.

Good Day and Good Night.

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