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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

10,000 Apologies

At the close of trade today, I expect to see 10,000 (give or take) apologies emailed to me, from my many detractors aka men of low standing. For months, “The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana has been telling you “we’re going to 10,000.” The same person who brought you “DEATH TO ALL BANKS AND BROKERAGES” and “MAY ALL BEARS DIE SLOWLY,” now brings you “WE’RE GOING TO 10,500, ELSE I WILL SHOOT MYSELF IN THE FACE WITH A HOWITZER.”

There are many similarities between blogging and managing money. For example: most people want to manage money, but, later on, find themselves too stupid to make a living at it. Similarly, lots of people have blogs, but lack the creative fire or passion to make them special. As you know, all too well, Le Fly is a master in the arts of money management and blogging. Many people take wild swings at me, trying to take my crown; but every single one of them miss.

At this stage in the rally, I can only tell you what I am doing: I remain long, with 10% in cash reserves. Thus far, for the day, I sold out of my POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] position, save a 1,000 share token position, and legged into a 5,000 share lot of Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , north of $97.50.

My top positions include: Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , [[ENTR]] , General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , Guess?, Inc. [[GES]] , Ceragon Networks Ltd. [[CRNT]] , ADTRAN, Inc. [[ADTN]] , DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , [[MWW]] , IAC/InterActiveCorp [[IACI]] , Align Technology, Inc. [[ALGN]] , Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] , Homex Development Corp. (ADR) [[HXM]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Vimpel-Communications (ADR) [[VIP]] , TriQuint Semiconductor [[TQNT]] , McMoRan Exploration Co. [[MMR]], [[CBD]] and Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] .

Now you look at those positions, boy, and tell me what type of day I am having.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtgXus3eiII 616 500]

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ATTENTION BEARS

While you dine at your favourite [sic] eatery, Le Chateau Feces de Bear, your life savings is withering away. Like sand in the wind, you are allowing all of your hard work and effort go up in smoke, all due to your thick skull. Believe me, I know the feeling, being wrong and digging in your heels. There is definitely a case for being bearish, but not now.

Think about it: do you really think the market is going to crash? Do you really believe the architects of this economy will allow 230+ years of work to fritter away, thanks to some overzealous bankers? Well, there is an argument that supports the notion that it does not matter what the government wants, since it will happen anyway. The country has too much debt and we do not produce anything of substance. All of these things may be true: however, as a nation, we still possess incredible wealth, through investment, and other nations invest here because we are the gold standard. All of the talk of China supplanting the US, as top economic power, is accurate–eventually. But for now, we have a recovery underway and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

My advice to you: cut your losses and invest in what is working now.

Thanks to a Cramer pump, my TEKELEC [[TKLC]] is vamoosing to the upside. My opinion, following the Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] for Starent Networks Corp. [[STAR]] deal, TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , Ceragon Networks Ltd. [[CRNT]] and ADTRAN, Inc. [[ADTN]] are prime takeover candidates.

In other news, my POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] has catapulted to new heights, trading above $114 now. I bought the sucker a week ago, from $99 to $106. This is a classic $100 roll. I discussed such things ($100 roll) in The PPT and put up a custom screen, so that you—the non-ingrate—may attempt to duplicate my success.

In short, I like the market and all of my positions. Let the bears eat sod, while we eat cake.

UPDATE: I sold 6,000 [[PKX]], north of $114.

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UPDATE: INTEL MASSACRES SHORT SELLERS WITH ABSURD EARNINGS REPORT

While you prattle about nonsense, “The Fly” is making people rich. See pal, it’s not the amount of content that matters, but quality. Let it be known, not only am I blessed with the gift of gab and extraordinary writing talent, I know how to make money in the market. I do so, at will, without effort.

People go to your website, for the same reason why I go to art galleries: to laugh at people. You know, the artsy crowd, all sophisticated in their mannerisms, while observing steaming piles of potash, hanging from concrete walls: that stuff is hilarious to me. No one visits your site for financial advice. Moreover, if they do, once they find me, they will never visit you again, sort of like your dating experience in High School (rim shot!).

The very nature of this market is remarkable. On top of the “coming back from the precipice” trade, now we get to enjoy merger and acquisition stories. This is going to get fun.

On the top of my list, for possible takeover plays, are ADTRAN, Inc. [[ADTN]] , Ceragon Networks Ltd. [[CRNT]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] and Akamai Technologies, Inc. [[AKAM]] . It’s also worth noting, the Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] for Starent Networks Corp. [[STAR]] deal is for $35 cash. With the stock trading a touch below $34, coupled with the prospect of a competing bid, STAR may be a buy, right here.

Finally, most of my positions did well today, putting my year to date gains over 80%. Over the next few days, I will be taking some profits, on a variety of names. In my experience, it always makes sense to sell when there is an abundance of buyers. My target cash position is somewhere north of 30%.

Top picks: POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]] , Ceragon Networks Ltd. [[CRNT]] , ADTRAN, Inc. [[ADTN]] and of course Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] .

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHKOCUrKfMo&feature=PlayList&p=A424A0B5EE94F88B&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=37 616 500]

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If the Space Alien Magican Gods Love Me

Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] will be $3 by Thanksgiving.

The Dow will be 10,500 by Thanksgiving.

My new/secret internet project will be a success.

General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] and TEKELEC [[TKLC]] will blow away earnings estimates and POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] will go retardo to the upside.

The next time Mrs. Fly forces me to our local Whole Foods, the grocery bill will be less than $500.

The next time I fill my car with mums, fresh from the farm, they will not be littered with crickets, that proceed to bounce around the interior, tormenting the kids, while I am doing 70mph on the highway.

And, finally, all of my enemies, both real and fictional, will be vanquished, leaving me with nothing to do but slap my employees around with hot slices of pizza.

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Fly Buy: CRNT

I bought 5,000 Ceragon Networks Ltd. [[CRNT]] @ $9.49.

Disclaimer: If you buy CRNT because of this post, the next time you do to the dentist, he will extract all of your teeth, by accident. And, you may lose money.

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What’s Good For STAR…

…is horrific news for Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) [[ALU]] , barring a takeover attempt on the little French networking giant. A merger between Starent Networks Corp. [[STAR]] and Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] is beyond synergistic. It is an exercise is corporate harmony. Together, both STAR and CSCO will gallop around, like little school girls, conquering the core router market, with an emphasis on destroying ALU.

At this stage, [[ERIC]] and Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) [[ALU]] should just merge. Get it over with. Or, better yet, they should make a competing bid for Starent Networks Corp. [[STAR]] . However, they will not win, since they suck and Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] is God.

As an aside, our wonderful friends from China intend to cut taxes on steel makers—by year end. This is HUGE news for the steel industry, as it will lead to consolidate and eventual margin expansion. Without a doubt, this bodes well for POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , [[GSI]] , Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (ADR) [[ACH]] and every other steel producer in the world, since the global market is one big orgy of steel loving hillbillies.

Naturally, I am quite upset and I am trying to talk about other things, missing out on the CSCO for STAR merger. However, I am not obsessing over it, in any shape, form or manner—nor would I ever use “non-corporate” language to describe my dismay. I sold too early, trying to be cute. That’s all.

Based upon the worldly advice from the cigar smoking shadow near my favorite urinal, I like TriQuint Semiconductor [[TQNT]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , Ceragon Networks Ltd. [[CRNT]] , Aruba Networks, Inc. [[ARUN]] , ADTRAN, Inc. [[ADTN]] and Akamai Technologies, Inc. [[AKAM]] , especially thanks to the STAR for CSCO merger (I swear, I am not obsessing).

Separately, I like DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] and General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , for gut-cheque [sic] reasons.

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10,500 or Die

Ok, I’ll be the first to admit it; runaway bull markets are boring. You have to understand, I’ve done this shit before—ramp up, make a bundle, then repeat. At least in bear markets, people are bugging the fuck out, making the whole experience all the more interesting, pardon my inappropriate grammaur [sic]. When the market was fucking itself, as a blogger and money manager, it was nirvana. Oh, how I long for the days of total collapse.

But, unfortunately, “The Fly” is cursed with the gift of a “winship.” The market reversed and I followed it higher, like a dog humping a fire hydrant.

So, this leads to my next challenge: keeping my creative side busy with something of interest, a challenge of sorts. If you recall, last year, I played Frank Sinatra music vids until the Dow broke down to 7,500. And, before that, I stopped cursing, until the Dow broke below some important level. Well, I am doing it again.

Hear this, losers of the internet aka “readers”:

“The Fly” will NOT use foul language, on this blog or in real life(there is no way for you to quantify the latter), until the Dow hits 10,500.

Its been said; so it shall come treu [sic]. There.

Good Day to you.

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The Future Begins Tomorrow

With titles like that, who needs newzpapers?

Earnings season is about to get real thick. So, get ready to ride the wave of optimism, as firms get ready to blow the barnyard doors off estimates, starting with Intel Corporation [[INTC]] .

My guess, the Dow touches down on 10,000, yet again, by the end of this week.

Top picks: Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Guess?, Inc. [[GES]] , Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]]

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP2VyquMAaM 616 500]

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Today Doesn’t Matter

Ignore the tape. Columbus Day was invented to torture people in the money management business. Everyone is off, relaxing near a flaming barrel of garbage, but idiots in the “investment community.” As a rule of thumb, I ignore thin trading days, like today, like the fat chick at the end of the bar. Should the market reverse lower today, taking your intraday gains with it, don’t get all worked up about it. For the most part, if you are a meaningful person, in any way, you are not working today.

Going into earnings season, my expectations are very high. I believe there will be many, many earnings beats, especially from semi’s and commodities. I do not think we are at a point where inventories need to come down, following the recent ramp. As you know by now, the consumer is buying LCD teevees as if they were bags of rice. And, with oil, natty, copper and gold exploding to the upside, it will be extraordinarily hard for commodity related companies to miss expectations.

If anything, as input prices rise, pressure may reappear on the balance sheets of consumer goods/service companies. Keep an eye out for that sort of bullshit. Because, without a doubt, “The Attack of the $100 Tomato” will snuff out this recovery—faster than The NY Mets waste payroll.

Bottom line: go eat a sandwich.

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I Squeeze You

I rarely drink heavily on work nights. I will have you know, it’s always a bad idea to get drunk, when you have work the next day. However, I don’t really “work,” now do I? I just sort of lounge around, barking orders at people, while blogging here on the internets. Others in my profession claim “mental anguish.” Well, I will have you know again, they’re just pussies. My point: I should not have had that 20th beer, for I believe it is responsible for making my head spin.

Back to the market:

Since I am impaired today, I will pass on trading and doing things that make me think. Therefore, I will talk to you, the zombified internet trader. We can discuss all sorts of fun shit, stemming from charts to the Nobel Prize and why they don’t really matter.

The market is green and I am making money again—fucking shocker. Some of my outperformers include: [[CBD]] , General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , Guess?, Inc. [[GES]] , Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] , Homex Development Corp. (ADR) [[HXM]] and McMoRan Exploration Co. [[MMR]] . As sure as I am sitting here, that bastard of a stock, Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , will touch $3—one day. By then, I might be 100 years old, walking around in adult diapers; but I will get my $3!!!

Courtesy of The PPT, here are some potential short squeezes:

Synaptics, Incorporated [[SYNA]] , Alliance Data Systems Corporation [[ADS]] , Fuqi International, Inc. [[FUQI]] , Novatel Wireless, Inc. [[NVTL]] , The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated [[CAKE]] , Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , Cypress Semiconductor Corporation [[CY]] , NCI Building Systems, Inc. [[NCS]] , Amedisys, Inc. [[AMED]] , The McClatchy Company [[MNI]] and GMX Resources Inc. [[GMXR]]

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