Playing the Short Squeeze

Often times when a stock has a giant short position there is something wrong with the company. For the most part, professional short sellers are very intelligent and are extraordinarily detailed in their reasoning behind their downside bets. In downward trending markets, I like to sell short stocks with a large percentage of shares sold short— for the “pile on” effect. Typically, those stocks are easy to break, because people think something is wrong with them. It’s all about perception.

However, in upward trending markets, the sharp edge of the pendulum swings the other way, into the scrotums of the steadfast/stubborn short sellers. Hence, when the markets are shooting higher, I like to go long stocks with large short positions.

Reason being: short sellers can only take so much pain, before they are forced to capitulate and buy back shares, sending said names through the fucking roof. Anyone familiar with Resorts International? Look it up, pal.

Wall Street is littered with legendary short squeeze stories. Why not try to participate in one, while the market is pistol hot?

The following stocks represent the best short squeeze ideas, courtesy of The PPT:

GDP, CSTR, NFLX, JCG, SD, ADVS, AIPC, AKAM, AMED, NILE, SHS, CBL, DSW, SYNA, EQIX, SHLD, ATPG, TNDM, NTRI, GMCR, PCX, CENX, ARD, VPRT, CYBS and MAC.

NOTE: Most of the stocks mentioned above have short positions representing more than 20% of the shares in the float.

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As I sit here, enjoying the BROKEN ROBOT tape, I am reminded of late 2003, when The Fly was coming off a banner year—long a shit load of semis. I walked around the office with such confidence and spent absurd amounts of coin on cases of champagne, for select friends and colleagues to enjoy during New Year’s festivities. When discussing the markets, I was an authority, as many others attached themselves to me, similar to small fish on a shark.

Then 2004 came and raped me, inside of a short week.

I remember it (the rape), as if it happened yesterday. I was leveraged to the gills, long semis, and did not think about risk. Next thing you know, by the third week of January, I was 10% in the hole (not a good feeling). It took many months to make back that 10% and shake off the mental rape.

Well, during 2009, the bears have been mentally raped, falling victim to even more “rapeage” in recent weeks. While the dollar climbs, so does the market, creating a perfect sublime harmony of short squeezes across various industries.

Gentlemen, this is “The Santa Claus Rally.” If you bet against it, you have been raped. I am so sorry for your loss.

Into the bell, OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] intrigues me, due to insane demand of the iPhone. Just in case you are stupid, OVTI supplies cameras to Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] .

After kicking around dozens of stocks, I have settled on three stocks, worth building around: Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] and Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] aka “The Trifecta TeaBag” for overzealous short sellers.

Indeud.

It was a very difficult decision for me. Mrs. Fly mocked me for months, while coercing me to “make the switch.” Today, much to my delight, I smashed my fucking Blackberry device with a snow shovel and replaced it with an iPhone—just in time for the iBC iphone App.

Seriously, the Blackberry is retarded. There is no comparison.

The recent numbers out of Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] ] were terrific, but I can’t endorse the stock, as an investment, any longer.

In Fly’s domain, there are Apple tv’s, itouches, ipods, iphones and laptops. Whenever I travel back in time, say 10 years ago, I see myself with Dell, Motorola, Creative Technologies and Toshiba. Like financial blogs, competing consumer technologies represent a pure form of Darwinism.

O’bama drives republicans crazy, mainly due to his laughable resume and under qualifications to be President. Nonetheless, I must admit, “The O” has been good to “The Fly,” thus far. I did well during the Bush years too. However, despite making insane coin shorting stocks in 2008, I prefer making money going long, mainly because “I am into civilization surviving.”

Many of you throw child like fits over “The O,” with regards to his “communist ways” and health care death claw. I am one callous motherfucker. I don’t give a shit about health care. We’re all going to die one day anyway. Who gives a shit about health care? Man the fuck up and accept your future heart attack like a man.

Men wearing brown burlap sweaters, trimmed with royal blue satin ribbons, discuss real serious stuff on the internet. These people discuss matters of vast importance, as if people gave two gay camels about them. Like I said before, join a think tank and let the real men trade this market. We don’t need the likes of you mucking up our swagger, here on Wall St.

My point is this: forget about politics, for it is the sandbox of arm chair generals.

With regards to this market: Adding to my Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] position is paying immediate dividends today. And, once again, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] is squeezing higher. I’ve been visiting a ridiculous amount of stores in NYC, Staten Island and all over New Jersey this holiday season. Everywhere I go the clerks tell me they cannot stock the Keurig’s fast enough. My best guess, GMCR will blow the barnyard doors off eps estimates, sending the stock close to $100. At the point, I will likely sell a large portion of my position, then move onto something else.

At the moment, my top positions are Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , [[MWW]] , Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] and SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] . In total, I am long 25 stocks, none representing more than 10% of my holdings. Going into the New Year, I intend to raise some cash, at least more than the 3% I have now.

Jake and I are having a little debate about stocks, in the previous thread. While he may be correct about the ultimate destiny of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] ; it is silly to single out any stock as a “fad.”

Unless the company is a conglomerate, mega cap corporation, pretty much all stocks are fads, in the sense that businesses get hot then cool off, like MSFT or DELL. They come and they go. Big companies and former Dow 30 components, Xerox Corporation [[XRX]] and Eastman Kodak Company [[EK]] , would have never been labeled “fads” 15 years ago. In hindsight, they most certainly were fads, albeit long lasting ones, if by “fad” you mean the stock sucked (and still sucks) dick.

If we are to label GMCR a fad, then it’s important to view the company over a longer time frame, in order to get a feel for how its business is run.

Basically, the stock has been lifting off for 15 years. Perhaps in 5 years, the share price will suffer and Jake may be able to say “Ha, I told you so.” But, I’ll be long gone by then and onto another “fad stock,” where I will attempt to make another killing. The point is: some companies shine for 50 years, others for 5 days. If you were able to make 300% in FADDY, inside of 5 days, would your new car look any different?

So goes the spirit of the market.

What more can I say? The gains are rolling in and people are not annoying me any longer. Life could not be better.

You know what I am long, right? No need to rehash current and future victories.

Where is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] going?

It’s going to $100 and more, just like Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] .

At any rate, “The Fly” must leave now, as Mrs. Fly has a fun-filled evening of holiday shopping planned for him, where he will spend/waste more money on distant relatives who deserve nothing—not even a K-Cup.

I bid you farewell.

I bought 2,000 Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] @ $68.70.

Disclaimer: If you buy CTRP because of this post, one day, you will die. And, you may lose money.

UPDATE: Classic Krull

All PPT member know my investing thesis is based upon three themes: tech via 4g names, commodities and foreign stocks. On occasion, because the market is so tempting, I venture off the plantation, trading in different sectors and industries—all represented by index’s created on The PPT. Recently, due to my fascination with Chinese slavery, I bought into [[HEAT]] , [[YONG]] and China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd. [[STV]] . As soon as I bought them, I was richly rewarded with gains. Hell, it was so easy, I was thinking about raising sea lions and walking around in white robes, regardless of the temperature outside. I am sure you know what I mean.

Fast forward three weeks and I just sold them all for losses.

The lesson to be learned: Chicoms are volatile as a motherfucker. If your investment thesis is not related to Chicoms, there is no reason to sit around, waiting for them to rebound. With the proceeds, I will buy names that I am familiar with, names that I will add on dips, as opposed to blowing out.

With some of the proceeds, I bought Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] and SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]]

UPDATE: I added more SHLD, LEN and SD, crack addict, on the last vile, style. And, to no one’s surprise, I bought more Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] .

2009 was the year that crushed ideologues. If you hated Bernanke, Giethner, Paulson, bailouts, Goldman Sachs, Obama and the U.S. economy, during 2009, you got your face kicked in. In my profession, everyone has an opinion and everyone is right, at least they think they are. I know people who are short from March, who now reserve “the wobbly chair” for dinner, at their local mental institution.

See folks, the market is not about what you and I believe to be true. It is about being an animal. You cannot “think normal” and make serious coin. Believe you me, all of those uptight money managers, who made a gagillion dollars in the market, those fuckers are 10 minutes away from losing their marbles for good. Successful people are not “normal,” as defined by Joey Stampcollector, over at engine house #10. They might walk around in their $10,000 overcoats thinking “hey, I’m soooo normal,” but they’re not. More often than not, they’re assholes, sociopaths of the first order.

As for the market:

Tech stocks are ripping higher again, as well as commodities. On this dip, I like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] and Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] . Into strength, I want to be long Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] and Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] in size. Oh shit! I’m already long those stocks in size.

Just when you though Plutonium Petey was fresh out of wins, BAM!, he hits you with another one.

Steel just eclipsed the magical $600 per tonne mark, pressing Goldman to upgrade United States Steel Corporation [[X]] today. We are in open field territory with the metals, sans the precious variety, as asset managers man the fuck up and go long. You may or may not know, my favorites are POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] and Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] . However, I am a fan of others, like United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Century Aluminum Company [[CENX]] , Kaiser Aluminum Corp. [[KALU]] , Reliance Steel & Aluminum [[RS]] and AK Steel Holding Corporation [[AKS]] .

For what it’s worth, the top rated Steel/Iron stock in The PPT are:

Olympic Steel, Inc. [[ZEUS]] , ArcelorMittal (ADR) [[MT]] , Cleveland-Cliffs Inc [[CLF]] United States Steel Corporation [[X]] and Haynes International, Inc. [[HAYN]] .

The names most likely to squeeze shorts are Allegheny Technologies Incorporated [[ATI]] and Century Aluminum Company [[CENX]] , due to their leveraged businesses, coupled with egregious percentage of shares sold short in the underlying stocks.