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Market Pricing in Trump Win Again

I read yesterday Trump was doing much better in swing states and today we have a +3.5% move in the regional banking index, which for me is the main barometer on whether markets believe Trump will win next month. Back in 2016, two areas of the market surged when he was, none more than the banks and small caps, best represented by $IWM.

We are seeing a massive move higher in all financial names and Bitcoin. Trump also seems to be the $BTC candidate. It’s worth noting that $BTC usually jumps 22% during the month of October and was down 7% MTD before today’s rally.

Lastly, Musk unveiled a cyber taxi yesterday and a series of robots. Markets are not impressed by these offerings and instead bid up shares of $UBER and $LYFT.

I’m nearly entirely invested, +100bps early on.

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