FED CUTS BY 50BPS, ANOTHER 100BPS PRICED IN

I think when it’s all said and done, the Fed will cut by 300bps, double what is being factored in. The issue here, as I alluded to in an earlier post, is the high levels of debt maturing over the next 3 years, which sets up a loosening cycle from now until 2028.

Initially, markets took off to the upside ad whether that sticks or not is largely immaterial to what this means in the next 6 months: markets should spike and continue to spike based off the premise of ‘multiple expansion.’

I went into the meeting any 60% cash and will maintain this level for another hour or so. I do not like trading on Fed days, because it’s often filled with hot money looking for large swings. Ultimately, this is BULLISH for equities and real estate, and commodities, and inflation, and anything denominated in dollars.