Over the next week several parts of what was Ukraine will vote to become part of Russia, including the Kherson region. The Russian MOEX is down nearly 6% today, up from down 10%, on news that the Russian Duma will escalate the war with a bill passage tomorrow.
Here is the chatter.
Looks like Russia may be ready to take things up a gear in Ukraine.
The Duma just passed a bill introducing the concepts of “mobilization” and “martial law” into law. The upper house could approve it tomorrow, after which Putin will sign it.https://t.co/AcyPw45HLW
— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022
Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.
— Nataliya Vasilyeva (@Nat_Vasilyeva) September 20, 2022
Vladimir Putin now in a meeting with bosses of the military-industrial complex, urges them to boost production of weapons and ammo, “urgently” supply the armed forces and ensure “100% import substitution in this sector” pic.twitter.com/rgz6TnOg1m
— Mary Ilyushina (@maryilyushina) September 20, 2022
???Russia announces they will accept “foreign volunteers” to serve in the army…
In Sakharovo, they will begin to accept foreigners to serve under a contract in the army.
???????Syria,North Korea,Africa,Venezuela … here we go pic.twitter.com/dIiL1zfDhv
— AZ ???? (@AZmilitary1) September 20, 2022
It seems to me from an amateur point of view, this is a long time coming — all things considered. Russia has been fighting the entire NATO military-industrial complex from the beginning, so it only makes sense they would legally escalate their capabilities should they need more personnel. This of course bodes terribly for everything else in the world and should make you feel uneasy in Europe, providing you need gas to heat your homes.
The Dow is -320, NASDAQ -110 and there is also weakness in WTI. I would, however, take any weakness in WTI with a grain of salt, considering Biden is literally emptying US stocks at a record pace to artificially reduce the price of crude. This program will cease soon and by early 2023, the US will have to buy back 10s of millions of barrels of crude.
I’m holding firm with a net bias long, -50bps early going.
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I wholeheartedly approve emptying the entire SPR (if that’s what it takes) for this national security emergency. What could be more important. It’s for the kids – our future. The kids simply must get back to school. And folks must have gas to drive to the mailbox to vote in Nov.
Things will turn out well I’m sure.