The only area of the market that has a chance to make it out of the great fires of 2022 are war stocks and commodities. We haven’t even seen a single German freeze to death due to lack of Russian gas. As NATO preps to increase its army to 400,000 from 30,000, it is inevitable that Russia and America will find itself in mortal combat by Fall. At that time, thanks to EU reliance on Russian energy — the entirety of Europe will be glassed over in ice.
If you’re not trading and interested in daily moves and instead prefer longer time horizons, I can think of no better area to “bet” on the market than energy and food.
The market might be down today — but commodities are way up and I would not be surprised to see an upside reversal predicate on nothing more than boredom and lack of grim news. The news is out there — but the market isn’t interested right now.
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I actually don’t think America and Russia end up in direct conflict, if only because America cannot win and Russia cannot attack us they’re a restricted land power.
At this point we’re a very global power but we are also completely built up around stockpiles. Russia is a clearly dominant land power and they have industrial capacity to support their army. So if we get involved directly we just eat up our stockpiles then lose.
At this point Washington has to be in a panic, revisiting why they ever listened to the unholy combination of neocons who spent the 50s – 20s losing wars abroad and the New York business community who’s major contribution was offshoring everything we need to support an army so that they could hold an extra couple percent in some financial metric on the books before getting all their uncompetitive businesses liquidated.