iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,426 Blog Posts

CRUDE BUSTS LOOSE; BOEING TANKS AFTER AIRLINER CRASHES IN CHINA

Tragedy in the skies, 133 people in China have perished.

A Boeing 737-800 that crashed in the Guangxi region of China was a twin-engine, single aisle aircraft. It had been flying for over six years, having been delivered to China Eastern Airlines from Boeing in 2015, according to The Associated Press.

On this news the stock is down 6%. Since it’s very early, there’s no way of knowing what happened and why. I was bearish on BA before the accident, even more so now.

WTI is up 5.3%, alongside every other thing Russia makes, as pressure mounts on “the west” to stop all trade with Russia. You will pay more for everything and like it — Slava Ukraine.

The market should be down a lot, but it isn’t. We are seeing rotation out from tech and back into commodities, a rational trade given the circumstances. I will keep this simple: as long as supply disruptions persist and our economy is strong — commodities will continue to get bid. While the war rages and countries like Poland think about entering the war against Russia, markets will respond by applying a risk premium to anything coming from Russia — oil, gas aluminum, wheat, potash etc.

I’m long this trade, +220bps early going.

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4 comments

  1. roguewave

    Steel in Europe is on a tear
    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1505494530778353668

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    • roguewave

      German PPI up 25.9% YOY
      Probably nothing Jim

      https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1505843477082513410?cxt=HHwWhIC9rcCq6uUpAAAA

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    • roguewave

      China released the transcript of the Biden and Xi phone call.
      Xi referenced a Chinese saying, “Let he who tied the bell on the tiger take it off,” – responsibility for solving a problem should fall on the person who created it.

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    • roguewave

      @LukeGromen
      China converts the CNY to USD for Russia.
      In return, China buys oil from Russia at a discount, in CNY.
      China then sells that oil elsewhere at full price, in USD, replenishing their USD.
      Wash/rinse/repeat, until Russia runs out of oil.
      Will logistics or oil grades stop this?

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