iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,414 Blog Posts

BOOKENDED BY EXTREME WINSHIP

I opened the session booking a 52% gain in VXRT, an overnight hold. I ended the session booking a 33% gain in CBLI, a day trade. The market dropped by 700, but I am not concerned. I am 55% cash, up a tonne for 2020, and have never traded better.

I can only suggest NO BOOZE, LIMITED CARBS, LIMITED SLEEP, and an obsession with trading fast and furious to help with your gains. Always be selling and never believe the bullshit.

I went long gold into the final hour too, and have a portfolio filled with COVID-19 plays — because I think the news gets worse before it gets better. Ergo, the trade into the black box of pandemic cures is upon you — the 5am heart attack pops and drops is just around the bend.

Since it’s Friday, I’ll shill for myself. Who the fuck else will?

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20 comments

  1. narcist

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/trump-on-dow-25000-i-guess-our-new-number-is-30000.html

    “I guess our new number is 30000.”

    I guess. (*shrug*)

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  2. narcist

    Why not some COVID-themed merch? They have been selling like hotcakes/N95 masks.

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  3. bambam

    When are you going to short the living sheet out of this turd?

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  4. Mr. Cain Thaler
    Mr. Cain Thaler

    (Laughter) Democrats are over here counting their pending supermajority and all the states they’re going to add, blissfully unaware that the last two months of polling are clearly just selection bias.

    I mean, maybe that selection bias shows up in November, but for the moment I think we’re seeing the same effect that call centers are experiencing; it is suddenly way easier to get hold of people. Because a bunch of people are at home.

    But it’s not evenly distributed. Look at the most prevalent careers by ideology; GOP are all essential jobs or the first back to work as restrictions ease. The careers here are like transportation or insurance. Dems are heavily nonessential like teaching or bartending and when they are essential they’re all working at home anyway like IT.

    Gallop is showing a 6pt shift in party affiliation that only manifests itself in the last couple month. No. Sorry, that’s just not how life works.

    I’m guessing Biden is ahead, but probably small like +3-5. The chances of Dems taking the Senate are so fucking slim.

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    • narcist

      Your subjective opinions notwithstanding, you’re *PROBABLY WRONG* about the “probably small like +3-5” guess. In this reply, I will aim to stick with the facts (that I have previously cited here/elsewhere and in my personal correspondence).

      The Trump-vs-Clinton gap was between 3 and 5 points (i.e., a small Clinton lead) back in June 2016. These days the Trump-vs-Biden gap goes from 4 to 14 points given the polls in the last 10 days or so. Obviously the gap has been widening as the COVID stats continue to surge:

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

      The highly correlated net disapproval gap confirms how weak his standing is:

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

      In general he has lost support in every demo. But unless he miraculously finds a way to fix that young white male disillusionment, he will get substantially fewer than the 62.9 million votes that he got in the last election. Yesterday I just pointed out that his support from white males under 35 is collapsing:

      https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?race=White&age=18-34&gender=Male

      He’s logging net disapproval ratings (again, among white males under 35) in all of the so-called swing states–from Wisconsin (-23%) and Michigan (-22%) to Ohio (-5%) and Florida (-2%) as of today (June 25th). So there will be much fewer of that 62.9 million who will vote for him again–and a good number of them will literally die before early voting begins (since he still does best with old whites).

      The control of the Senate is quite a lot more uncertain. The Dems will certainly lose the Alabama seat and gain the Arizona, Colorado, and Maine seats. To get to 51, the Dems will need to win 2 out of the 4 remaining competitive seats (IA, GA-special, MT, and NC). Bullock (of MT) is a popular governor and is polling well ahead of the incumbent. Kelly Loeffler (of GA) is the weakest incumbent of the last 3, but Tillis (of NC) is in a more purple state.

      Maybe we can have a more substantive conversation since the viewership here has returned to its 2019 level and it’s safe to assume no one else is reading these “off-topic” political junk from you and me.

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      • chickendawg

        I read it, narcist, and appreciate the time you put into your reply. Cheers.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler
        Mr. Cain Thaler

        The “facts” are unbelievable. They are suggesting a net 5% of the population were Republican in May but stopped being Republican in June. And I’ve yet to meet any ideologue – right or left – who actually changes their mind.

        The “facts” are polls. Polls are statistical samples. When your statistical sample gives you an unbelievable answer, it’s probably selection bias; not really happening.

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        • narcist

          “They are suggesting a net 5% of the population were Republican in May but stopped being Republican in June.”

          1. Who are they? Gallup? I agree that Gallup has been one of the most unreliable pollsters for many election cycles.
          2. The total number of registered Republican voters has been shrinking for many years because, again, the GOP base is mostly old whites. So it’s no rocket science but simple arithmetic that the deceased old white Republicans don’t get replaced (1-for-1) by 18-year-old Republicans–the 18 to 34 age group is much less white (and much less Republican) and will continue to get less white (and much less Republican).

          “Polls are statistical samples. When your statistical sample gives you an unbelievable answer, it’s probably selection bias; not really happening.”

          1. You weren’t so keen on claiming “selection bias” when Trump was polling better, were you?
          2. The reason why I only included the links to the (aggregated) polls of polls is that they minimize any sampling biases. They provide a much more reliable and objective depiction of the *trends* vis-a-vis specific data points. Nate Silver and his staff track the pollsters very closely based on their accuracy/track record: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
          3. My own subjective/anecdotal observations in the Atlanta-metro (e.g., more Biden signs than Trump signs in the overwhelmingly Republican parts of Cobb county, the significantly more vocal commitment about the 2020 elections from the black voters) have been confirming with the trends: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Georgia.html

          I have been saying quite often the election this November is still (almost) all about PA+WI+MI (each was lost by Clinton by less than 1%) that tipped the balance of electoral college outcome for Trump. Those 3 states have already swung heavily in the 2018 midterm elections against the GOP and Trump was then polling way better than he current is. You simply can’t say with a straight face that every 2016 Trump voter in those 3 states will vote for him again and *at the same time* the ones who didn’t vote last time will stay home again (as Clinton’s unfavorable stats were way higher than Biden’s unfavorable stats have ever been).

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  7. roguewave

    Fly has torn it up this year. All that experience, paying off.
    Like a bat outa hell since the tanker trades.

    In other news, thanks to our hero’s in NY hospitals. One of the doctors bravely works in the Covid ward even though he is only a lowly dentist. A very brave man – a Hero!
    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/06/27/elmhurst-hospital-coronavirus.aspx?cid_source=dnl&cid_medium=email&cid_content=art1HL&cid=20200627Z1&et_cid=DM573743&et_rid=903715543

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  8. tha pirate

    Will the “fakenews” about Wu-Flu get worse? Until November 5th, 2020 ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING ‘THEY’ CAN SAY about ‘orange man bad’ WILL be said.

    Reality? The same fools who said ‘flatten the curve’ were SUPPOSED to be referring to flattening the curve as far as HOSPITALIZED CASES so that the hospitals would not get overwhelmed. If the case numbers go higher, but the actual cases are far milder requiring NO HOSPITALIZATIONS with LESS deaths and serious cases isn’t THAT what should be important?!? Well NO, not for the fakenews machines spitting out ‘Trump-bad’ Trump-bad’ Trump responsible for what the Chinese Communist Party released on the world etc.

    Funny how when there were rioters, anarchists and looting opportunistic thieves destroying small business and attacking decent cops the media had NO PROBLEM with allowing everyone to fill the streets in the thousands – but open a business? Go to work? Help the ‘Trump-economy’??? Bad bad bad… at least until November 5th when the fake mail in voting can begin after the fake polls are announced.

    You know, I would certainly call myself liberal when I was younger – but the left has become SO radical, so extreme and so out of touch that there is NOTHING ‘liberal’ about them at all. They are in fact a fascist, racist left, labeling themselves as ‘anti-fascist’ and ‘anti-racist’ with NO tiolerance for dissent, and no connection to real historic or economic reality. Orwell was a true visionary.

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    • narcist

      It’s not so much about ORANGE man bad but WHITE people less willing to vote for him.

      By all objective indications, that’s how things are looking like.

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